Latest news with #ArnoldBarnett
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First Post
12 hours ago
- First Post
Air India plane crash: Is flying risky business?
Catastrophic events such as the Air India crash affect us deeply. The thought of going down in an aircraft may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overemphasis on the risks. However, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport read more Members of Indian Army's engineering arm prepare to remove the wreckage of an Air India aircraft, bound for London's Gatwick Airport, which crashed during take-off from an airport in Ahmedabad, India. Reuters On Thursday afternoon, an Air India passenger plane bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff from the Indian city of Ahmedabad. There were reportedly 242 people onboard, including two pilots and 10 cabin crew. The most up-to-date reports indicate the death toll , including people on the ground. Miraculously, one passenger – British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh – survived the crash. Thankfully, catastrophic plane crashes such as this are very rare. But seeing news of such a horrific event is traumatic, particularly for people who may have a fear of flying or are due to travel on a plane soon. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If you're feeling anxious following this distressing news, it's understandable. But here are some things worth considering when you're thinking about the risk of plane travel. Dangers of flying One of the ways to make sense of risks, especially really small ones, is to put them into context. Although there are various ways to do this, we can first look to figures that tell us the risk of dying in a plane crash per passenger who boards a plane. Arnold Barnett, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated that in 2018–22, this figure was one in 13.7 million. By any reckoning, this is an incredibly small risk. And there's a clear trend of air travel getting safer every decade. Barnett's calculations suggest that between 2007 and 2017, the risk was one per 7.9 million. We can also compare the risks of dying in a plane crash with those of dying in a car accident. Although estimates of motor vehicle fatalities vary depending on how you do the calculations and where you are in the world, flying has been estimated to be more than 100 times safer than driving. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The tail of the Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner plane that crashed is seen stuck on a building after the incident in Ahmedabad. Reuters Evolution has skewed our perception of risks The risk of being involved in a plane crash is extremely small. But for a variety of reasons, we often perceive it to be greater than it is. First, there are well-known limitations in how we intuitively estimate risk. Our responses to risk (and many other things) are often shaped far more by emotion and instinct than by logic. As psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, much of our thinking about risk is driven by intuitive, automatic processes rather than careful reasoning. Notably, our brains evolved to pay attention to threats that are striking or memorable. The risks we faced in primitive times were large, immediate and tangible threats to life. Conversely, the risks we face in the modern world are generally much smaller, less obvious, and play out over the longer term. The brain that served us well in prehistoric times has essentially remained the same, but the world has completely changed. Therefore, our brains are susceptible to errors in thinking and mental shortcuts called cognitive biases that skew our perception of modern risks. This can lead us to overestimate very small risks, such as plane crashes, while underestimating far more probable dangers, such as chronic diseases. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Why we overestimate the risks of flying There are several drivers of our misperception of risks when it comes to flying specifically. The fact events such as the Air India plane crash are so rare makes them all the more psychologically powerful when they do occur. And in today's digital media landscape, the proliferation of dramatic footage of the crash itself, along with images of the aftermath, amplifies its emotional and visual impact. The effect these vivid images have on our thinking around the risks of flying is called the availability heuristic. The more unusual and dramatic an event is, the more it stands out in our minds, and the more it skews our perception of its likelihood. Another influence on the way we perceive risks relevant to flying is called dread risk, which is a psychological response we have to certain types of threats. We fear certain risks that feel more catastrophic or unfamiliar. It's the same reason we may disproportionately fear terrorist attacks, when in reality they're very uncommon. Plane crashes usually involve a large number of deaths that occur at one time. And the thought of going down in a plane may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overweighting of the risks. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Another factor that contributes to our overestimation of flying risks is our lack of control when flying. When we're passengers on a plane, we are in many ways completely dependent on others. Even though we know pilots are highly trained and commercial aviation is very safe, the lack of control we have as passengers triggers a deep sense of vulnerability. This absence of control makes the situation feel riskier than it actually is, and often riskier than activities where the threat is far greater but there is an (often false) sense of control, such as driving a car. Passengers gather in front of the ticket counter of Air India airlines. File image/Reuters In a nutshell We have an evolutionary bias toward reacting more strongly to particular threats, especially when these events are dramatic, evoke dread and when we feel an absence of control. Although events such as Air India crash affect us deeply, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport. Understandably, this can get lost in the emotional aftermath of tragic plane crashes. Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
India Gazette
4 days ago
- India Gazette
News of the Air India plane crash is traumatic. Here's how to make sense of the risk
On Thursday afternoon local time, an Air India passenger plane bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff from the northwestern Indian city of Ahmedabad. There were reportedly 242 people onboard, including two pilots and ten cabin crew. The most up-to-date reports indicate the death toll has surpassed 260, including people on the ground. Miraculously, one passenger - British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh - survived the crash. Thankfully, catastrophic plane crashes such as this are very rare. But seeing news of such a horrific event is traumatic, particularly for people who may have a fear of flying or are due to travel on a plane soon. If you're feeling anxious following this distressing news, it's understandable. But here are some things worth considering when you're thinking about the risk of plane travel. One of the ways to make sense of risks, especially really small ones, is to put them into context. Although there are various ways to do this, we can first look to figures that tell us the risk of dying in a plane crash per passenger who boards a plane. Arnold Barnett, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calculated that in 2018-22, this figure was one in 13.7 million. By any reckoning, this is an incredibly small risk. And there's a clear trend of air travel getting safer every decade. Barnett's calculations suggest that between 2007 and 2017, the risk was one per 7.9 million. We can also compare the risks of dying in a plane crash with those of dying in a car accident. Although estimates of motor vehicle fatalities vary depending on how you do the calculations and where you are in the world, flying has been estimated to be more than 100 times safer than driving. The risk of being involved in a plane crash is extremely small. But for a variety of reasons, we often perceive it to be greater than it is. First, there are well-known limitations in how we intuitively estimate risk. Our responses to risk (and many other things) are often shaped far more by emotion and instinct than by logic. As psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, much of our thinking about risk is driven by intuitive, automatic processes rather than careful reasoning. Notably, our brains evolved to pay attention to threats that are striking or memorable. The risks we faced in primitive times were large, immediate and tangible threats to life. Conversely, the risks we face in the modern world are generally much smaller, less obvious, and play out over the longer term. The brain that served us well in prehistoric times has essentially remained the same, but the world has completely changed. Therefore, our brains are susceptible to errors in thinking and mental shortcuts called cognitive biases that skew our perception of modern risks. This can lead us to overestimate very small risks, such as plane crashes, while underestimating far more probable dangers, such as chronic diseases. There are several drivers of our misperception of risks when it comes to flying specifically. The fact events such as the Air India plane crash are so rare makes them all the more psychologically powerful when they do occur. And in today's digital media landscape, the proliferation of dramatic footage of the crash itself, along with images of the aftermath, amplifies its emotional and visual impact. The effect these vivid images have on our thinking around the risks of flying is called the availability heuristic. The more unusual and dramatic an event is, the more it stands out in our minds, and the more it skews our perception of its likelihood. Another influence on the way we perceive risks relevant to flying is called dread risk, which is a psychological response we have to certain types of threats. We fear certain risks that feel more catastrophic or unfamiliar. It's the same reason we may disproportionately fear terrorist attacks, when in reality they're very uncommon. Plane crashes usually involve a large number of deaths that occur at one time. And the thought of going down in a plane may feel more frightening than dying in other ways. All this taps into the emotions of fear, vulnerability and helplessness, and leads to an overweighting of the risks. Another factor that contributes to our overestimation of flying risks is our lack of control when flying. When we're passengers on a plane, we are in many ways completely dependent on others. Even though we know pilots are highly trained and commercial aviation is very safe, the lack of control we have as passengers triggers a deep sense of vulnerability. This absence of control makes the situation feel riskier than it actually is, and often riskier than activities where the threat is far greater but there is an (often false) sense of control, such as driving a car. We have an evolutionary bias toward reacting more strongly to particular threats, especially when these events are dramatic, evoke dread and when we feel an absence of control. Although events such as Air India crash affect us deeply, air travel is still arguably the safest method of transport. Understandably, this can get lost in the emotional aftermath of tragic plane crashes.
CNN
22-02-2025
- CNN
Here's where to find the most up-to-date flight safety information
It can be nerve-wracking to fly right now. Just this month, the collision of an American Airlines plane and a US Army helicopter killed 67 people in Washington, DC, and a Delta Airlines flight crash-landed in Toronto. In 2024, the year started off with a door panel blowing off an Alaska Airlines flight, and then months later there eventually would be two fatal crashes involving South Korean and Azerbaijani airlines. Though airplane accidents are still a rarity, according to the numbers. Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, co-authored an August 2024 airline safety study that between 2018 and 2022, the worldwide death risk per boarding was one in 13.7 million. But for anxious flyers, having all this information may not alleviate a fear of flying. In fact, it might do the opposite and could even influence panic symptoms at the airport, Jonathan Bricker, an affiliate psychology professor at the University of Washington told CNN. 'The anxious mind is never satisfied with the answer, the data,' Bricker said. 'It's always looking for more information to reassure itself, because it will think of another possibility.' And it can be overwhelming to parse through the different agencies and data points on airline safety. The Federal Aviation Administration under the Department of Transportation regulates civilian aviation, but the National Transportation Safety Board investigates all major civil aviation accidents. Both the FAA and NTSB have troves of data to browse but much of the language is industry-specific. NTSB posts preliminary data on the number of accidents here (as the chart appears, it suggests there was a record-low number of airplane accidents nationwide in January). The NTSB also maintains an accident database, and the FAA has a landing page for its different set of flight safety data and information. If you're open to gaining more knowledge, experts point to Airline Ratings, which offers detailed and reliable safety assessments about individual airlines, though it doesn't calculate risk. The site rates airlines on whether they have had numerous and serious pilot-related incidents, passed all of their major audits (for American Airlines that includes benchmarks such as International Air Transport Association audits and FAA bans) and if they had any fatal crashes in the last 10 years. Barnett also pointed to Air Safety Network for details on individual crashes. For example, the site posts the flight path, images, coordinates, maps and information from news sources and social media posts for the Delta flight that rolled over in Toronto Pearson. Kristy Kiernan, an associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, told CNN that the Flight Safety Foundation's 'Skybrary' has valid and reliable information. It's like a Wikipedia for industry knowledge, describing different accident types and what aircrafts can expect in those situations. 'As an industry we want to make sure that people have the resources that they need in order to understand something in layman's terms,' Kiernan said, contradicting the position of Bricker, the psychology professor. 'If you learn about all of the processes and procedures that are in place in the aviation system to keep you safe, you'll feel a lot more comfortable.'
Yahoo
22-02-2025
- Yahoo
Here's where to find the most up-to-date flight safety information
It can be nerve-wracking to fly right now. Just this month, the collision of an American Airlines plane and a US Army helicopter killed 67 people in Washington, DC, and a Delta Airlines flight crash-landed in Toronto. In 2024, the year started off with a door panel blowing off an Alaska Airlines flight, and then months later there eventually would be two fatal crashes involving South Korean and Azerbaijani airlines. Though airplane accidents are still a rarity, according to the numbers. Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, co-authored an August 2024 airline safety study that between 2018 and 2022, the worldwide death risk per boarding was one in 13.7 million. But for anxious flyers, having all this information may not alleviate a fear of flying. In fact, it might do the opposite and could even influence panic symptoms at the airport, Jonathan Bricker, an affiliate psychology professor at the University of Washington told CNN. 'The anxious mind is never satisfied with the answer, the data,' Bricker said. 'It's always looking for more information to reassure itself, because it will think of another possibility.' And it can be overwhelming to parse through the different agencies and data points on airline safety. The Federal Aviation Administration under the Department of Transportation regulates civilian aviation, but the National Transportation Safety Board investigates all major civil aviation accidents. Both the FAA and NTSB have troves of data to browse but much of the language is industry-specific. NTSB posts preliminary data on the number of accidents here (as the chart appears, it suggests there was a record-low number of airplane accidents nationwide in January). The NTSB also maintains an accident database, and the FAA has a landing page for its different set of flight safety data and information. If you're open to gaining more knowledge, experts point to Airline Ratings, which offers detailed and reliable safety assessments about individual airlines, though it doesn't calculate risk. The site rates airlines on whether they have had numerous and serious pilot-related incidents, passed all of their major audits (for American Airlines that includes benchmarks such as International Air Transport Association audits and FAA bans) and if they had any fatal crashes in the last 10 years. Barnett also pointed to Air Safety Network for details on individual crashes. For example, the site posts the flight path, images, coordinates, maps and information from news sources and social media posts for the Delta flight that rolled over in Toronto Pearson. Kristy Kiernan, an associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, told CNN that the Flight Safety Foundation's 'Skybrary' has valid and reliable information. It's like a Wikipedia for industry knowledge, describing different accident types and what aircrafts can expect in those situations. 'As an industry we want to make sure that people have the resources that they need in order to understand something in layman's terms,' Kiernan said, contradicting the position of Bricker, the psychology professor. 'If you learn about all of the processes and procedures that are in place in the aviation system to keep you safe, you'll feel a lot more comfortable.'
CNN
22-02-2025
- CNN
Here's where to find the most up-to-date flight safety information
It can be nerve-wracking to fly right now. Just this month, the collision of an American Airlines plane and a US Army helicopter killed 67 people in Washington, DC, and a Delta Airlines flight crash-landed in Toronto. In 2024, the year started off with a door panel blowing off an Alaska Airlines flight, and then months later there eventually would be two fatal crashes involving South Korean and Azerbaijani airlines. Though airplane accidents are still a rarity, according to the numbers. Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, co-authored an August 2024 airline safety study that between 2018 and 2022, the worldwide death risk per boarding was one in 13.7 million. But for anxious flyers, having all this information may not alleviate a fear of flying. In fact, it might do the opposite and could even influence panic symptoms at the airport, Jonathan Bricker, an affiliate psychology professor at the University of Washington told CNN. 'The anxious mind is never satisfied with the answer, the data,' Bricker said. 'It's always looking for more information to reassure itself, because it will think of another possibility.' And it can be overwhelming to parse through the different agencies and data points on airline safety. The Federal Aviation Administration under the Department of Transportation regulates civilian aviation, but the National Transportation Safety Board investigates all major civil aviation accidents. Both the FAA and NTSB have troves of data to browse but much of the language is industry-specific. NTSB posts preliminary data on the number of accidents here (as the chart appears, it suggests there was a record-low number of airplane accidents nationwide in January). The NTSB also maintains an accident database, and the FAA has a landing page for its different set of flight safety data and information. If you're open to gaining more knowledge, experts point to Airline Ratings, which offers detailed and reliable safety assessments about individual airlines, though it doesn't calculate risk. The site rates airlines on whether they have had numerous and serious pilot-related incidents, passed all of their major audits (for American Airlines that includes benchmarks such as International Air Transport Association audits and FAA bans) and if they had any fatal crashes in the last 10 years. Barnett also pointed to Air Safety Network for details on individual crashes. For example, the site posts the flight path, images, coordinates, maps and information from news sources and social media posts for the Delta flight that rolled over in Toronto Pearson. Kristy Kiernan, an associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, told CNN that the Flight Safety Foundation's 'Skybrary' has valid and reliable information. It's like a Wikipedia for industry knowledge, describing different accident types and what aircrafts can expect in those situations. 'As an industry we want to make sure that people have the resources that they need in order to understand something in layman's terms,' Kiernan said, contradicting the position of Bricker, the psychology professor. 'If you learn about all of the processes and procedures that are in place in the aviation system to keep you safe, you'll feel a lot more comfortable.'
