14-07-2025
Is Asean now a new 'balancing wheel'?
Last week's Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting reflects its continued relevance in an increasingly unstable world. Amid US unilateralism and US President Donald Trump's tariff nationalism, Asean has reasserted itself as a balancing wheel -- a stabilising force on which its dialogue partners can still depend.
The Asean chair has done a good job in further strengthening its centrality and augmenting its convening power. Friends and foes from the dialogue partner circle intermingled in camaraderie without fear, as Asean offers a neutral platform.
As a trusted partner, Asean has remained level-headed and pragmatic, engaging all major powers, big and small, at bilateral, regional, and global levels.
The 58th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur was held against the backdrop of one of the most polarised periods in global politics. A new conflict in the Middle East has further stoked the potential for nuclear escalation.
However, a more immediate and real war is taking place globally through tariffs, sanctions and trade barriers. Washington's to-and-fro tariff highs have become one of the most destabilising factors in the international trading system. Asean is ready to manage this growing, difficult economic security.
With Aug 1 set for new levies, Asean export-oriented economies are bracing for impact. The US remains one of the bloc's most important markets, particularly for export-heavy economies like Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.
Ironically, the latest tariff controversy temporarily eclipsed Myanmar's ongoing crisis on the Asean agenda. With all eyes on Washington's trade offensive, Myanmar found its opposition to Timor-Leste's Asean membership quietly brushed aside.
Yet Myanmar itself was not spared as the junta is among the countries facing a 40% tariff on selected exports to the US. Under the current chair, Asean remains focused on Myanmar.
The bloc will dispatch its ministerial representatives, comprising Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, to Nay Pyi Taw to enforce the Asean Five-Point Consensus (5PC) and assess the humanitarian situation.
Here are five key pivotal takeaways.
First, Asean has once again become a magnet for major powers. The European Union (EU) wanted to upgrade its half-century-old ties with Asean to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) by 2027 -- less than two years away.
The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and European Commission Vice President, Kaja Kallas, minced no words at the Asean Post-Ministerial Conference, clearly stating that Asean-EU ties must be more strategic. Brussels also has the ambition to join the East Asia Summit, the region's premier leader-level security dialogue.
Ms Kallas pointed out Asean's growing strategic relevance, highlighting Southeast Asia's role in global supply chains. She noted, for example, that batteries powering European electric vehicles often rely on components sourced from Indonesia, while Thailand remains the world's top producer of natural rubber.
The EU sees Asean as a vital economic partner, and in fact, a competitor in the future. For the time being, Asean is insisting that a long-delayed free trade agreement must be concluded before any CSP upgrade can proceed.
Truth be told, past frictions over palm oil, human rights, democracy, and environmental policy have made Asean cautious. That said, as the first step, the EU must show more respect for the bloc's core principles of non-interference and consensus.
Second, China scored major gains in Kuala Lumpur. The long-delayed upgrade of the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA 3.0) has finally been wrapped up and will be signed in October. Talks had previously stalled over investment issues, but the breakthrough signals Asean's desire for broader market access to China's vast consumer base.
More significantly, China expressed its intention to accede to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Protocol without any preconditions -- a long-standing goal for the bloc. Beijing had first shown interest in 2000 but was held back by Asean's desire to have all five recognised nuclear powers sign simultaneously.
Two decades later, that dream was dashed with no sign of movement from the others, causing Asean to reconsider its approach at its 2023 meetings in Jakarta. Now, Asean is ready for any nuclear power willing to sign up to the SEANWFZ. After the recent 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which raised fears of nuclear escalation, China's willingness to sign without any precondition is welcome news for Asean.
Third, Asean has formally acknowledged that economics and politics are now inseparable. With Mr Trump's weaponisation of trade policies fresh in their minds, Asean foreign ministers agreed that dovetailing of the bloc's economic and foreign policy coordination is urgently needed.
The leaders agreed to the Malaysian chair's proposal that, ahead of the 47th Asean Summit in October, economic and foreign ministers should jointly prepare a strategic assessment for their leaders. As the global environment grows more volatile, Asean recognises that its ability to respond must also become more integrated and forward-looking.
Fourth, transnational crime has emerged as a key priority in Asean and its dialogue partners. Thailand raised the issue during the Foreign Ministers' Meeting, citing rising threats from call centre scams, human trafficking, and illegal gambling -- many of which operate across borders and exploit jurisdictional loopholes. The peoples of Asean and dialogue partners are among the victims.
In an unexpected move, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed these concerns raised by Thailand during the AMM at the Post-Ministerial Conference and proposed deeper bilateral and regional cooperation on the transnational crime issue.
His remarks caught several Asean delegates by surprise, suggesting a possible new chapter in Asean-US collaboration. At the upcoming Asean-US summit, both plan to sign the Joint Leaders' Vision Statement to Promote a Stronger, Safer and More Prosperous Asean and US relations.
Finally, Asean's international profile sweeps upwards. Malaysia has nominated Turkey as the next dialogue partner. It is a tall order, but not impossible. This proposal has yet to achieve consensus among Asean members, but it marks a significant shift. The Asean chair has intensified ties with the Middle East region, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council. After all, the United Kingdom was admitted on a fast track as a dialogue partner in 2021 -- after a two-decade-long moratorium. Nevertheless, Turkey's bid is more complex and contentious, as member states hold divergent views on Ankara's global ambitions.
Despite a complex and often tense global environment, the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting was broadly successful. The Malaysian chair was able to connect bilateral concerns to broader regional and global dynamics -- from trade and tariffs to diplomacy and security. As Asean prepares for its next summit in October, the real test will be whether the bloc can consolidate its emerging role as the region's stabilising force -- a true balancing wheel in an increasingly polarized world.
