4 days ago
Asean's balancing act gains momentum
In the middle of the Covid-19 crisis, a tentative idea was raised at the Chongqing virtual meeting between Asean-China foreign ministers in June 2021, for Asean Plus Two. The two referred to the US and China. The bloc's leaders were quite worried that US-China rivalry, especially during the pandemic, would result in catastrophic outcomes for the regional economy and its integration.
Asean should therefore do its bit by hosting, facilitating dialogue and cooperation between the two superpowers to ensure peaceful coexistence. The idea did not fly.
One reason was simply that the bigger powers did not need the bloc's handling. Both Washington and Beijing also have their bilateral channels.
However, what has taken place in Kuala Lumpur over the week, when the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire was concluded, indicates that Asean has built up its convening power to have the US and China observe the Asean way of resolving intra-Asean challenges.
Their presence is significant for many reasons. First, both the US and China want to see a stable and prosperous region, which is good for their respective economies. Second, both powers have different approaches towards regional issues. The US is more assertive in tackling such issues impacting its global strategy, while China has been cautious and prefers regional countries to solve their own problems, supporting regional efforts. In Kuala Lumpur, the current Asean chair can collaborate with the US and China to create an enduring environment conducive to easing tensions and promoting friendliness.
In short, now that Asean has brought the two superpowers to the same table, more accomplishments could follow. Previously, US-China rivalry has often overshadowed Asean meetings. Yet this time, as an isolated event, their representatives stayed in the room and listened, taking in what the Asean leadership was proposing.
Could the Kuala Lumpur meeting serve as a follow-up to the Chongqing idea? Under the "Asean Plus Two" format, proposed by Thailand, the chair was meant to facilitate the dialogue between the two superpowers. At the 47th Asean summit, with President Donald Trump in attendance, other leaders might want to engage him. Mr Trump's transactional approaches could be useful for the bloc.
Indeed, if this idea is construed at the right time, it could reshape the way Southeast Asia manages external influence and do so on its own terms. Asean centrality is often mentioned in the joint communiques and official speeches. Now, Asean has the opportunity to lead and to act.
Meanwhile, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is currently the man of the hour. He knows how to engage both superpowers and keep the bloc in charge. By inviting them to observe and supporting Asean initiatives, the chair was able to use their presence to ease tension and reduce anxieties.
Most importantly, all parties kept face. Asean showed that the bloc does not have to choose sides to take the lead.
In a more divided world, Asean must find new ways to engage both superpowers without losing its voice. As Professor Amitav Acharya of the American University writes in his latest book, The Once and Future World Order: Why Global Civilization Will Survive the Decline of the West, global power is no longer dominated by the West. The world is moving towards what he calls a "global multiplex" -- a system where power is shared and no single country sets the rules.
This new order opens space for regions like Asean to take a more active role. But to do so, the bloc must be malleable. The Asean Plus Two model fits the current circumstances as it is another Asean-led format that brings in the US and China when needed, especially when the region confronts a crisis that needs external engagement, but with regional authority.
Other Asean-led mechanisms remain useful, including the East Asia Summit, the Asean Regional Forum and ADMM, a platform for Asean and its eight dialogue partners: Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States (collectively referred to as the "plus countries").
In essence, the Asean-plus formula will give Asean additional instruments to deal with crises in the unpredictable world.
Some may argue that the ceasefire meeting was just a one-off. Asean has a limited role. Thailand and Cambodia will use their existing bilateral frameworks to resolve long-standing issues.
But throughout Asean's history, many lasting formats or policies began informally. The East Asia Summit, for example, grew from earlier Asean Plus Three meetings to Plus Five. It could gain more members in the future.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which started out as the bloc's free trade agreement with key dialogue partners.
What matters is political momentum and leadership. Unmistakably, the Asean chair has lots of leeway. If the ceasefire format is used again to deal with future disputes or crises, it could become a valuable diplomatic tool for the region. It also aligns with the "future-ready" call for Asean as a true game changer.
The Philippines is the next Asean chair; this model offers a useful tool to engage the two superpowers. If Manila wants to reinforce Asean centrality, it should look closely at what Malaysia has just achieved. The Philippines' red herrings are the situation surrounding the South China Sea dispute. That said, the new Asean chair needs to be creative.
Manila will also need to balance its longstanding ties with both China and the US. If done correctly, an Asean Plus Two format could help it manage this balancing act.
In a global multiplex world, Asean must be proactive in shaping the regional environment. The plus two framework may not be an official policy yet, but it could be practical. The upcoming chair, the Philippines, can take the idea to the next level and make it part of the bloc's diplomatic future.
