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2025 Heisman Trophy odds: Arch Manning favored, but is that a good thing for his hopes?
Predicting the Heisman Trophy before the start of the college football season is not an easy task. How the growing number of transfers will slot in with their new teams, even high-profile draft prospects, is unpredictable. Players who haven't played major roles yet and are mostly unknowns to casual fans will break through to become contenders.
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Last year's Heisman finalists were a fitting example of the unpredictable nature of the award. Travis Hunter won as a two-way player, a true unicorn. He was a high-profile recruit, transferred to Colorado to follow coach Deion Sanders and starred in 2023, but he was a long shot (+3500, or a less than 3 percent implied probability) to win the award before the season. Runner-up Ashton Jeanty was known by NFL Draft heads, but was not viewed as a Heisman contender before the season, with even longer odds at +5000 (less than 2 percent). Dillon Gabriel, another transfer, was third in the voting and one of the preseason co-favorites at +800 (11.11 percent). Meanwhile, Cam Ward had incredibly long odds to start, at +20000 (0.5 percent).
That's all to say, preseason odds for the Heisman Trophy are better for banter and message board fodder than they are for forecasting.
Texas' Arch Manning is the favorite entering the 2025 season with +600 odds on BetMGM. While the talented quarterback with a famous last name is top of the odds board, +600 odds are long for someone considered a favorite (compared to favorites in other sports) and imply Manning wins the award 14.3 percent of the time.
Favorites have not had a history of winning the award in recent decades. It's been at least 20 years since a preseason favorite won. Finding preseason odds for the Heisman Trophy gets tougher the further you go back, but either Matt Leinart in 2004 or Eric Crouch in 2001 were the last preseason favorites to win, depending on which sportsbook you look at.
Manning is the most popular bet on BetMGM with 22.8 percent of the money and 16.9 percent of the tickets, leading in both categories. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson's Cade Klubnik are next in the odds at +900 (10 percent probability). Both ranked in the top 10 in the country in passing yards last year, and six of those top 10 are now in the NFL. Manning is the hot name, but Nussmeier and Klubnik might have the best resumes of high-profile quarterbacks in the country.
Hunter snapped a streak of three straight quarterbacks who had won the Heisman, but it's still a quarterback-dominated award. Since the turn of the century, 20 of the 25 winners have been quarterbacks. Going with that trend, 13 of the top 14 players in the odds to win the Heisman are quarterbacks.
The one exception is notable, though: Jeremiah Smith. The Ohio State wide receiver proved to be a prodigious talent as a freshman last year with 1,315 receiving yards (fourth in the country) and 15 touchdown catches (second). He will have a new quarterback this year in Julian Sayin, who is also high up the board with +1800 odds, but Smith is talented enough and already an established name, so it won't be hard for him to break into the typically quarterback-heavy discussion. Smith is fourth in the odds at +1000 (9 percent).
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Alabama's stud sophomore wide receiver Ryan Williams is +3500 (2.78 percent), not bad for a non-quarterback, but firmly in long-shot territory. Williams will also have a new quarterback, Ty Simpson, who is higher in the odds at +2000 (4.76 percent).
Sayin and Simpson are unproven commodities, but when you start at Ohio State or Alabama, you at least have a chance to win the Heisman. Similar for Gunner Stockton (+2000), who is expected to start at Georgia.
As for more established quarterbacks, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (+1600, 5.88 percent), Penn State's Drew Allar (+1800, 5.26 percent) and Florida's DJ Lagway (+1800) are also viewed as serious contenders.
The way the Heisman goes, some names not mentioned and much further down the board will have breakout seasons and join the conversation. Will Nebraska's Dylan Raiola (+4000, 2.44 percent) start to play more like Patrick Mahomes and not just dress and act like him? Will Jeremiyah Love (+4000) emerge as the best running back in the country at Notre Dame? Will Nico Iamaleava (+8000, 1.23 percent) turn into a star at UCLA after teasing his potential last year at Tennessee?
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Arch Manning: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
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