12-08-2025
Russia Reports Ukraine Military War Breakthrough Before Trump-Putin Meeting
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Russian forces are pushing hard in Ukraine's Donetsk region in the hope a breakthrough that can provide leverage in the summit between President Donald Trump and Kremlin Leader Vladimir Putin, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.
Ukrainian sources reported sabotage and reconnaissance groups were infiltrating near Dobropillia which is northwest of Pokrovsk, the Donetsk hub that is key to Moscow capturing the whole of the region.
The ISW said that Moscow is likely focusing on advances to coincide with Friday's U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska as a Newsweek map shows the front line's state of play.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
An image from June 19, 2025, shows Kyiv's troops in Pokrovsk, in Ukraine's Donetsk region.
An image from June 19, 2025, shows Kyiv's troops in Pokrovsk, in Ukraine's Donetsk It Matters
Anticipation is building ahead of Friday's summit and whether Putin will try to pressure his U.S. counterpart into accepting Moscow's control over partially occupied areas in exchange for a ceasefire, as has been reported.
The ISW analysis suggests that Putin wants to leverage tactical pushes to seek U.S. concessions as he tries to frame the full capture of Ukraine's regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts as inevitable.
What To Know
The ISW assessed that Russian forces had likely recently seized settlements southeast and east of Dobropillia, as the think tank noted a claim by the Russian Ministry of Defense that Moscow's forces had seized Fedorivka, which is northeast of Pokrovsk.
The think tank said it was premature to call the Russian advances an operational-level breakthrough, but Moscow would like to see it develop into one in the coming days.
Russian forces used a similar tactical penetration in April 2024, and the coming days in the Pokrovsk area will be critical for Ukraine's ability to prevent accelerated Moscow gains north and northwest of the city, the ISW said.
Geopolitical analyst Joni Askola said in an X, formerly Twitter, thread Tuesday that Russia's breach near Dobropillia was "timed for pressure," as Moscow attacked in multiple directions and was willing to take risks and losses to gain leverage before Friday's talks.
Askola said that Ukraine faces command issues, low infantry numbers, poor coordination, limited resources—and a habit of delaying bad news.
This breach is still small compared to past actual breakthroughs, but in today's war, it is big enough to matter and Ukraine has sent units, including from the 1st Azov Corps, to contain it, Askola added.
The First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine said on Facebook that it had taken up defensive positions on the Pokrovsk front a few days ago as Russian troops advanced in small groups toward Dobropillia, bypassing the first line of Ukrainian positions.
What People Are Saying
The Institute for the Study of War said on Monday: "It is premature to call the Russian advances in the Dobropillia area an operational-level breakthrough, though Russian forces very likely seek to mature their tactical advances into an operational-level breakthrough in the coming days."
Ukraine's First Corps Azov posted on social media: "The situation remains difficult and dynamic. The enemy, trying to advance on this front, is suffering significant losses in personnel and equipment."
Geopolitical analyst Joni Askola wrote on X: "Russia's breach near Dobropillia—real, risky, and timed for pressure. It's not a collapse, but it's not nothing. It's important to neither under nor overestimate it."
Askola added; "It's not too late—but it must be stopped before it grows."
What Happens Next
A statement by European leaders on Tuesday said borders cannot be changed by force, showing backing for Kyiv by its allies that any land swap for a ceasefire cannot be considered in Friday's summit, as has been previously reported.
However the statement, which was notably not signed by Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, expressed support for Trump's efforts to end the war, but insisted "meaningful negotiations" could only begin with a ceasefire or a significant reduction in hostilities, and diplomatic pressure on the U.S. will likely continue in the coming days.
