23-05-2025
Syria's key role in Turkiye-Israel relations
The Palestinian issue has long been a decisive factor in Turkiye-Israel relations, but Syria has also played a significant role and continues to do so.
Israel and Turkiye are reported to have reached agreement on a deconfliction mechanism to prevent an incident between their forces in Syria. Azerbaijan, a mutual ally, is said to have been the mediator.
Ankara has emerged as a major actor in Syria since Bashar Assad was ousted, and Israel has expressed its opposition to a Turkish military presence there. Israeli forces operate in the south and Turkish troops in the north, and both countries have said they want to avoid a confrontation. Similar military deconfliction mechanisms in Syria operated before: when Moscow intervened in the civil war in 2015, Israel and Russia set up a hotline to avoid clashes.
Unlike Russian or Iranian forces, Turkish troops have never had a serious confrontation with Israeli forces in Syria or anywhere else. This may be linked to decades of military and intelligence cooperation, although ties reached their lowest point in the past decade. In contrast, Turkish forces shot down a Russian military jet in 2015, leading to a sharp deterioration in relations. Tensions between Turkiye and Iran were also high, not only in Syria but also in Iraq. To reduce the risk of direct military confrontation in Syria, the Astana peace process was established Russia, Iran, and Turkiye in 2017, and enjoyed some success.
Regional states, including Turkiye, want regional security and economic growth, but stability will remain out of reach unless Israel halts its military actions in Gaza and beyond. Israel has often used regional crises, such as the war in Syria, to engage other regional actors while sidelining the Palestinian issue. But it is unrealistic to expect any regional state to ignore the carnage in Gaza and simultaneously trust the Israeli government as a partner for regional cooperation in Syria. As long as Israel continues its current approach, cooperation with Turkiye is unlikely.
Regional states, including Turkiye, want regional security and economic growth, but stability will remain out of reach unless Israel halts its military actions in Gaza and beyond.
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
Finally, Ankara sees a friend in Damascus and seeks to deepen engagement. However, the intensification of Israeli military operations in Syria further complicates the already fragile situation there, while the interim government strives to build a stable environment. Israel may have concerns about Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, but Turkiye's concerns are twofold: developments in Syria, and Israel's actions across the region.
Syria's interim government already faces challenges and the Israeli military threat is hindering the efforts of both Damascus and regional states to address them. For Damascus, regional and international cooperation is essential for achieving lasting stability. A collaborative regional approach to rebuilding Syria could address the complex post-Assad challenges. Acknowledging this, regional states are keen to play a role in security and economic reconstruction: last week Turkiye and Jordan revealed plans to work with Iraq and the new leaders in Syria on reconstruction, energy, health and transport.
Israel is also trying to establish relations with the new administration in Damascus: reports suggest that it has engaged in talks with Syria in Baku aimed at addressing their differences, discussions supported by Turkiye and Azerbaijan. President Ahmad Al-Sharaa is trying to reassure Israel that Syria poses no security threat. He has sought regional support in conveying this message and even appealed to international legal frameworks, urging Israel to respect Syrian sovereignty as outlined in the 1974 disengagement agreement.
Washington has also expressed a clear interest in seeing Turkiye and Israel resolve their differences in Syria, an issue raised by President Donald Trump in a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. Trump said he was ready to mediate. He also lifted US sanctions on Syria and met Al-Sharaa in person during his visit to Riyadh. This is all promising, but there is still no clear US policy on the new Syrian administration, so a clear assessment remains challenging for Turkiye and other regional states.
Turkiye and Israel's policies, and their often tense relations, have not always aligned: that is not new. Now, however, Syria can play a decisive role in shaping both countries' regional strategies and their approach to each other.
