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Zawya
06-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Russian rouble moves towards 89 vs dollar as market follows geopolitical news
The Russian rouble made a renewed attempt to push towards the 89 mark against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, continuing to trade in a relatively narrow band as traders closely follow geopolitical developments. The rouble is up against the dollar this year, mostly thanks to expectations of improved relations between Moscow and Washington that could produce some kind of conflict resolution in Ukraine and a possible easing of sanctions against Russia. By 0950 GMT, the rouble was up 1.2% at 89.30 to the dollar in over-the-counter market trade. Morning gains have evaporated in every session this week and the rouble has depreciated for six sessions in a row since reaching a more than six-month high in late February. Against the yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia, the rouble was down around 0.6% to 12.30. Without accounting for changes in the geopolitical situation, the rouble's fair value against the dollar remains close to triple digits, Renaissance Capital analysts Oleg Kuzmin and Andrei Melashchenko said in a note. "The potential for a stronger exchange rate forming depends on the degree of improvement in the situation with geopolitics and sanctions," they said. Any geopolitical positivity can cause the rouble to rise by another 5%-10%, said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Astra Asset Management, expecting the rouble to return to the 95-100 range in the second half of the year. Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.4% at $69.59 a barrel, after falling to the lowest since late 2021 in the previous session. (Reporting by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Alison Williams)
Reuters
28-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Russia's central bank seen keeping key interest rate on hold at March meeting: Reuters Poll
MOSCOW, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank is seen keeping the key interest rate on hold at 21% at its meeting on March 21 while the rouble is seen retreating after the rally at the start of the year, a Reuters poll of 11 economists showed on Friday. The central bank's governor Elvira Nabiullina said this week that the interest rate is at the appropriate level to stop inflation from accelerating, while a turnaround in factors affecting prices is being observed. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 21% last year, the highest since the early 2000s, to cool the economy and reduce inflation, which is currently running at about 10%. Economists saw the rate of inflation falling to a median of 7% by the end of the year from the current rate of around 10%, compared with 6.8% seen in the previous poll. The Russian rouble has strengthened by around 22% against the dollar so far this year and by 10% since the start of February, mostly due to expectations of better relations with the United States and an eventual peaceful settlement in Ukraine. "Any positive geopolitical news will be an important disinflationary factor," said Dmitry Polevoy of Astra Asset Management. The rouble is seen retreating from the multi-month highs of around 87 to the dollar it had reached during the rally to a median of 93 to the dollar by the end of March and to 105 to the dollar in 12 months from now. "In January-February, the rouble exhibited abnormal strength. We expect that in the coming weeks the rouble will stay possessed by the geopolitical headlines and volatility," Rosbank's Evgeny Koshelev said. Economic growth is seen slowing down to 1.7% in 2025, the same as in the previous poll. The Russian economy grew by 4.1% in 2024.
