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Memri

China – The World's Foremost Instigator Of Tensions

From antiquity to modern times, history is littered with nations that sought greatness not through harmony but through provocation, deceit and dominion. Attila the Hun was a fearsome fifth-century military leader of the Huns known for his brutal campaigns. From the 15th to 19th centuries, European empires colonized nations under the guise of spreading "civilization" but left a legacy of conflict, exploitation, and mayhem. In the 20th century, the world was twice set ablaze by Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and later, the Soviet Union. ­ Today, China joins their ranks under the leadership of President Xi Jinping. Xi wields horror not with blitzkrieg, religion or ideology but through calculated grey-zone aggression, espionage, and creeping territorial encroachments. China has emerged as the world's foremost instigator of coercion and tensions of our time, albeit modernized, refined and stealthy. The following are just some of the countries who have been on the receiving end of China's coercion and grey zone tactics. (Source: FBI) The Philippines In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration issued its final ruling declaring China's claim over parts of the South China Sea as having no legal basis. The courts ruled that the disputed waters are indeed part of the Philippine's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Despite the court's ruling and its status as a signatory to UNCLOS, China has defiantly refused to recognize the decision and continues to violate Philippine sovereignty. It has employed a wide array of coercive tactics – including deploying maritime militia swarms, using water cannons and military-grade lasers, imposing blockades on resupply missions, engaging in cyberespionage, and even interfering in elections. In one glaring instance, China was caught red-handed conducting espionage. PLA operatives, disguised as members of a civic research NGO, were accosted for gathering intelligence on Philippine military operations and joint U.S.-Philippines facilities.[1] Taiwan China does not recognize Taiwan's independence and insists that the island is merely a renegade province. It has made clear that it intends to pursue reunification even if it has to do so by force. For years, China has waged relentless grey-zone warfare to pressure and intimidate Taiwan. These tactics include repeated incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and territorial waters, swarming its airspace with fighter jets, deploying maritime militias to encircle its islands, conducting war games, launching cyberattacks, spreading disinformation and aggressively isolating Taiwan diplomatically. China's unrelenting coercion of Taiwan – and the looming threat of invasion – has raised serious concerns of a direct military confrontation with the United States. India China and India continue to grapple with a long-standing territorial dispute over the "Arunachal Pradesh" and "Aksai Chin" regions.[2] Although partial disengagement was achieved in 2024, tensions remain high due to ongoing infrastructure buildup, sustained troop deployments and China's provocative release of its 2023 "standard map," which claims large swaths of Indian territory. China has employed creeping tactics including the construction of dual-use infrastructure and cyberattacks targeting India's power grids.[3] More concerning is its interference in the India-Pakistan conflict, where it supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. Yet, as reported by Indian media NDTV, Beijing "downplayed India's assertion that China provided active military support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, using the conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors as a 'live lab' to test various weapon systems."[4] Nepal/Bhutan In the Himalayas, tiny Bhutan and fragile Nepal have faced an increasingly assertive China. In Bhutan, "China has built 22 villages and settlements within Bhutan's traditionally recognized borders," signaling an "acceleration in China's territorial expansion."[5] In Nepal, villagers report boundary pillars mysteriously shifting as Chinese forces inch forward.[6] Behind closed doors, Beijing wields economic and diplomatic coercion, turning ancient mountain frontiers into battlegrounds. Japan China's territorial dispute with Japan centers around the Senkaku Islands – territory that has been discovered, populated, and administered by Japan since the late 19th century. The islands are believed to sit atop significant undersea oil and gas reserves, adding to their strategic value. China has engaged in persistent provocations, including incursions by its coast guard and aircraft into the area, as well as the deployment of maritime militia. In 2023, Beijing launched a coordinated disinformation campaign accusing Japan of illegally dumping nuclear wastewater. South Korea The territorial dispute between China and South Korea centers around the Socotra Rock, a submerged reef located in the East China Sea. China regularly deploys maritime patrols, surveillance ship incursions, aerial overflights, ADIZ overlap assertions, hydrographic surveys, and diplomatic protests to undermine South Korea's sovereignty. It has also engaged in illegal fishing and building artificial platforms near Korean EEZ Australia China's conflict with Australia stems from Canberra's pushback against Chinese interference, cyber espionage, and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Tensions spiked after Australia called an independent investigation into the origins of the Wuhan virus. China responded with trade boycotts, cyberattacks on government systems, and political influence operations. Last February, three Chinese warships entered Australia's EEZ near Sydney and later near Tasmania and Perth,[7] without prior notification. The vessels conducted unannounced live-fire drills. Though technically in international waters, the incursion was condemned as a provocative tactic meant to intimidate and test Australia's response readiness. The United States The rivalry between China and United States are escalating over imbalanced trade and rivalry over economic and strategic influence. This is on top of the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan and the Philippines against Chinese attacks. China engaged in cyberattacks targeting the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.[8] It deployed spy balloons[9] and uses spies enrolled as students at top American universities to collect sensitive information on new technologies.[10] The European Union Tensions persist over China's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, widespread human rights violations, product dumping and intellectual property theft. In 2024, Western officials were suspicious of China's admission that a Chinese container ship "accidentally" damaged a vital Baltic Sea gas pipeline linking Estonia and Finland.[11] In 2024, a Chinese vessel was under investigation for shearing of a submarine cable connecting Lithuania to Sweden. African Countries China "buys" influence through debt diplomacy to the long-term detriment of poor countries.[12] China's actions have cast it as a destabilizing force on the global stage – one that fuels tension and erodes others' peace, development, and sovereignty in pursuit of its ambitions. This is especially pronounced under Xi Jinping, marking a clear departure from the more measured leadership of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. What remains consistent in Xi's leadership is a troubling disregard for international norms and the rule of law, often replaced by coercive, might-over-right behavior. Xi will not be in power forever. No one can be. One can only hope that China's next leader will choose a different path – one that restores its role as a constructive and responsible global actor. *Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan