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Axios
3 days ago
- Business
- Axios
Austin homes at risk of selling at a loss
Nearly 14% of Austin home listings were at risk of selling at a loss in May, and the risk was higher for homes purchased during the pandemic, real estate firm Redfin estimates. Why it matters: That and other figures point once more to the comparatively enormous bubble around the Austin housing market during the pandemic — and how it's popped. Stunning stat: Nearly half (47.5%) of for-sale homes in Austin that were bought in the last three years are at risk of selling at a loss — the highest share among major metros, per Redfin. And nearly a third (32.2%) of for-sale homes in Austin bought during the throes of the pandemic (July 2020-July 2022) might sell at a loss, second only to San Francisco (34%). Yes, but: If you're selling your Austin home that you bought before the pandemic, there's just a 0.5% chance that you sell at a loss, per the report. Follow the money: The median sales price for an Austin-area home in June was $449,900 — roughly the same as a year earlier, per data from the Austin Board of Realtors and Unlock MLS. What they're saying: The Austin housing market is undergoing a "gradual adjustment" following months of home sales being down from last year, Vaike O'Grady, research adviser at Unlock MLS, a data site operated by the Austin Board of Realtors, said in a statement. "The median sales price has held steady, underscoring ongoing demand and reinforcing long-term confidence in the Austin market," O'Grady said. Zoom out: With prices now softening, "sellers are in a position where they may need to choose between accepting a lower price or taking the home off the market," Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the report.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Florida and Texas gaining residents at much slower rate, eating into homebuyer demand
The flow of U.S. residents moving into Florida, Texas and other parts of the Sun Belt slowed significantly in 2024, eating into homebuyer demand, a Redfin news release says. The rising cost of housing and the increasing frequency of natural disasters are slowing migration to certain Florida and Texas metros, Redfin reports. Austin, in particular, saw one of the biggest slowdowns in the nation with a net inflow of about 14,000 residents last year, down from about 22,000 residents in 2023, Redfin said, citing U.S. Census data. Net inflow is how many more U.S. residents move into a metro area than move out; it includes domestic moves only. "The rising cost of housing is one factor in slowing migration to the Sun Belt, and slowing migration is now one factor pushing homebuying demand down in those areas," Redfin said. The release went on to say: "In some of the places where migration is slowing most, sale prices are either falling or they're flat. That's due partly to the pandemic construction boom and surging supply in Florida and Texas. There's now a surplus of homes and apartments in parts of those states, and slowing migration — along with locals being priced out — means there are fewer people to buy them, which is one reason demand feels slow." "Metros like Austin were once viewed as affordable alternatives to expensive hubs like San Francisco and New York, but that gap is shrinking," the report said. "As a result, those who are able to relocate may be considering other parts of the country, like the Midwest or parts of the Northeast, because they're more affordable than the Sun Belt and less prone to natural disasters. For instance, Minneapolis and Indianapolis, where median home-sale and rent prices are lower than they are in places like Miami or Austin, are among the metro areas that saw migration rise in 2024." In March, home sales fell 9.3% in the Austin region compared with March 2024. The median sales price was $446,000, basically flat (down 0.9%) from March a year ago, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. Within Austin's city limits, home sales fell about 9% in March year-over-year. Half of the homes sold for $590,750 and half for less, for a 5.5% increase in the median closing price. This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin sees one of biggest slowdowns in new residents in U.S.: report
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Austin home sales are down, inventory up in 2025 so far
AUSTIN (KXAN) – Home sales in the Austin metropolitan area are down 10% so far in 2025 compared to the first few months of 2024, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. After the Great Recession, home values around Austin appreciated at an average rate of around 4.5% annually until the pandemic, when home values spiked. While values still reflect the COVID-19 era, they have been steadily cooling down. DATA: Austin's housing market: How quickly are homes selling, and for how much? 'Homeowners during COVID accrued home equity gains above that which we would have otherwise expected,' said Claire Knapp, housing economist at ABOR. 'We're also seeing perhaps a little bit of reluctance among sellers to meaningfully reduce their home prices, and I think that has contributed to some extent to that sluggishness in sales.' In part, this has led to higher levels of inventory – a boon for buyers, providing them with more options. 'Inventory is really beneficial to [buyers],' Knapp said. 'They're able to really hone in on what they want.' 'It's a very different market for buyers than it was even a few years ago during the pandemic, when buyers really didn't have many options available to them, and we were just watching homes fly off the shelves,' she continued. Even though prices are declining, Knapp said more needs to happen. While the median sales of a home in the metropolitan statistical area dropped 12% from 2022 to 2024, that value was 40% higher in 2024 than it was in 2019. Additionally, buyers are restricted due to higher mortgage rates, contributing to the sluggish market, Knapp said. 'We've seen mortgage rates have remained high,' Knapp said. '[They're] hovering in that high 6% range and even dipping into that 7% range.' 'It's really dependent upon sellers to be willing to set reasonable expectations in terms of pricing, particularly given higher mortgage rates and the higher level of inventory available to buyers in today's market,' she continued. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Axios
28-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
The best time for Austinites to list their home
It's prime time to list homes in Austin, according to a new Zillow report. Why it matters: Sellers who listed their homes in early spring last year made more money on the sale than at any other time of the year. The big picture: The " best time to sell," per Zillow researchers, depends on where you live, and the season starts early in Austin. Across the U.S., homes listed late last May sold for 1.6% more — typically $5,600 — than any other time of year. San Jose, California; Seattle; and San Diego also saw price premiums in March, while late fall was prime time to sell in Tampa Bay and Phoenix. Zoom in: Listing Austin-area homes in the second half of March boosted the final sale price by 2.3%, or about $10,400, on the typical home. In February, the median home price across greater Austin fell 3.9% compared to February 2024, to $430,000, per the Austin Board of Realtors. Within the city of Austin, the median price was just over $560,000 in February 2025. State of play: Mortgage rates remain elevated this spring, and while some shoppers have adjusted to higher rates, many still feel priced out or find few options available. The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has stayed just under 7% for nine straight weeks, Freddie Mac data shows. What they're saying: "Lower prices and rising inventory are helpful, but they don't change the fact that high borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers," Kendall Garrison, CEO of Austin-based Amplify Credit Union, said in a statement.
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Austin-area housing market poised for another stable year, experts say
Steady as she goes. That about sums up the 2025 outlook by real estate experts for the housing market in the Austin metro area, a five-county region stretching from Georgetown to San Marcos. Peering into their crystal balls, several leading experts who have tracked the ups and downs of the Central Texas real estate market for years, even decades, foresee stable conditions this year. They predict the 2025 housing landscape could mirror last year's, as more normal trends continue in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic era buying frenzy, when multiple offers, often well above asking price, were common. More: Will 2025 Central Texas housing market be a repeat of 2024? Those expected trends include home prices remaining relatively flat; a steady supply of housing; predictable mortgage interest rates; and consistent sales, all factors that should help better inform decisions for both buyers and sellers. In short, barring unforeseen local, national or global events, experts say this year's local housing market could look like a repeat of 2024's. '2025 market activity will likely look similar to trends observed in 2024 with the median sales price and closed sales hovering between a range of 5% up or down year-over-year," Clare Knapp, housing economist for the Austin Board of Realtors, said recently. "This stability will give homebuyers and sellers clear expectations to plan their next steps with greater confidence." More: Austin-area housing market stable as 2024 ends; real estate agents optimistic about 2025 For house hunters, the anticipated continued growing supply of homes means more choices, and — in some cases — lower prices. That's because some sellers, given higher interest rates and slower sales, might have to consider lowering their asking prices to attract buyers as inventory swells and mortgage rates hover in the 6% range. Mortgage rates are projected to stay in that range during the first half of this year, but they could dip into the 5% range later in the year, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. "The predictability in mortgage rates should provide both buyers and sellers with a stable framework for planning, reducing uncertainty and allowing for more confident decision-making," the Austin Board of Realtors said in a recent news release. Rob Kellogg, a real estate agent with Realty Austin, said he expects 2025 to be "more of the same," with buyers taking their time to select a home. "They will look for a seller that has their home in tip-top condition, looking like a cream puff with a reasonably compelling price point. Closing costs will likely need to be on the table and assist in buying down those elevated interest rates," Kellogg said. Historically, the health of the local economy, along with mortgage interest rates, have been the biggest factors affecting demand for housing, said Eldon Rude, a longtime housing market expert. "Unfortunately, with job growth in the region slowing over the last year, and interest rates remaining stubbornly high, both these important variables will continue to represent headwinds for our housing market in 2025," said Rude, who is principal of 360° Real Estate Analytics, an Austin-based real estate consulting firm. Rude delivered his 22nd annual housing forecast this week, an event that draws hundreds of industry professionals every year. More: Austin-area housing outlook positive; job growth, slower home prices pluses, expert says Looking ahead into 2025, we asked Rude and other experts what they think is in store for the Austin-area housing market. Along with Rude, Knapp and Kellogg, here's who else we checked in with, followed by their predictions: Longtime developer Terry Mitchell, formerly with volume homebuilder D. R. Horton in Austin and now president of Austin-based Momark Development LLC. Mark Sprague, a longtime housing market analyst currently with Independence Title. Josh Santos, vice president of corporate homebuilding operations for Landsea Homes. Landsea is building in a Kyle community called Freedom at Anthem, where it purchased 221 acres and ultimately will build 880 homes in coming years. Ed Wendler Jr., longtime developer who has worked for a real estate investment trust that has built hundreds of apartments in Austin. Bryan Havel, division president for Tri Pointe Homes Austin. Bryan Glasshagel, senior vice president with Zonda, which tracks the housing market locally and nationally. Kellogg: "2024 was a roller coaster of a year. The first three months were very active, and several of my listings received multiple offers. Not the type of multiple offers that we had in '20-'22 when the buyers bid up the prices by +10% to 15%, but there were many serious buyers, and in many cases cash was the winner — even if the offer was a little under list price." "All in all, while the year was full of ups and downs, it ended up being my most productive year (in my 20 years in real estate). I helped 13 sellers and 13 buyers so was able to experience both sides of the transaction. While many of the sellers took in less proceeds than expected, if they bought prior to 2019, they had significant equity to take with them to their next move." Knapp: 'The median sales price will likely remain essentially flat — i.e., up or down to the tune of 5% year-over-year. Still, elevated mortgage rates continue to constrain buyers' affordability, while an uptick in active listings has provided buyers with more negotiating power. Home prices will need to adjust to accommodate for the lower level of buyer demand within our current market." Sprague: "Home prices are likely to grow at a slower, more sustainable pace compared to the rapid increases seen in recent years. Yes, median prices have dropped due to mortgage interest rates increasing payments. But this slowdown was caused by rates increasing, not a financial meltdown. In Texas, and the majority of the nation, there is not a decrease in residential values; the tax appraisals show that." Rude: "With the number of available listings likely going up in the spring and summer of 2025, I expect overall home prices to moderate (ease) further in 2025 as sellers are forced to adjust prices to accommodate the affordability pressure prospective homebuyers must deal with as interest rates remain high." Glasshagel: "Price appreciation will be limited in 2025, flat to potentially up 1%. Builders will continue to contribute sizable incentives to offset closing costs or buy down mortgage rates. ... On a case-by-case basis, builders will likely continue to be open to negotiating prices on inventory homes, particularly those that have been sitting for a while." Santos: Like other experts, Santos expects home prices to remain "relatively flat" this year. "In the Austin market, we've seen a decline in home prices over the last year from the high prices we experienced post-COVID, mainly attributed to rising interest rates, which in turn caused pressure on affordability," Santos said. "With increasing inventory, we've had to adjust prices in order to sell those homes. That's been a wonderful thing though, for those who purchased a home in the last year. People can afford a new home again." Knapp: "Home prices continue to outpace family incomes (in the Austin region). The median family income for the Austin metro in 2024 was $126,000, which, based on mortgage rates, roughly translated into a maximum affordable home price of between $360,000 and $410,000. Meanwhile, the median sales price measured well above those figures — $445,000. The disparity between home prices and family incomes proves more acute for lower-income families.' Rude: In his 2024 forecast, Rude said that, among its peer cities, Austin had the biggest decline in the ratio of median family income to median home price in 2023, as home prices declined while mortgage interest rates rose. As a general rule of thumb, for most individuals and families, a home's value should be no more than three to five times their total annual household income. Austin saw a decline from the high end of that range — from a multiplier where the median home price was five times that of the median family income in 2022 — down to a multiplier of 3.9 in 2023, when the median home price was $481,200 and the median family income was $122,300. Some easing in home prices could be a plus in helping Austin continue attracting people and businesses, Rude said in last year's forecast. Santos: "It's going to be similar to what we experienced in 2024. New communities are coming online in 2025 and there will be a steady stream of supply throughout the year." Knapp: "Active listings may decline slightly but will likely remain well above historic levels. Demand is likely to remain sluggish amid sustained high mortgage rates. However, (if) sellers more realistically price their homes for the current market, demand may pick up — slightly.' Sprague: "Expect rates around 6+% to 7.5% through 2025." Knapp: Mortgage rates likely will hover between 6% and 7% as the Federal Reserve takes a cautious approach to potential rate cuts. "This consistency will allow both buyers and sellers to benefit from a predictable lending environment," Knapp said. "However, external factors, such as economic shifts or policy changes, could influence these trends, underscoring the importance of staying informed and adaptable to navigate the market successfully." "Since most homeowners are still sitting on ultra-low mortgage rates, a substantial downward movement in rates really is the name of the game to persuade more buyers off the sidelines." Rude: "Homebuilders over the last several years were able to compete effectively with the resale market as most production builders have the capacity to buy down mortgage rates, which makes their homes more affordable compared to similarly priced resale homes. "Because many builders have been carrying a large number of inventory homes since interest rates began to surge in mid-2022, in some sub-markets they have been offering buyers large incentives to sell homes. While these competitive forces make this a great time to purchase a new home, in 2025 I expect builders will pull back on the number of inventory homes they carry, which will result in fewer homes for buyers to choose from." Mitchell: "As is true across the country, our region has affordability concerns. We are facing those challenges better than the nation: Even though our region's median home price is higher ($450,000) than the nation's median home price ($406,100 as of December), our household income is higher (about $94,000 for 2024) than the nation's (about $80,600) meaning metro Austin can 'afford more home.' "Interest rates have not declined as originally thought several months ago, contributing to the affordability issue. At most, interest rates might decline a small amount in 2025. With that in mind, builders will need to figure out ways to lower house prices — smaller units and/or more density — to lower prices to reach more of our homebuying public." Dwyer: "You already see homebuilders reducing the size of their floorplans and limiting the luxury options in an effort to hold down pricing." Knapp: 'Demand among first-time and low-income buyers continues to outpace supply. Affordability continues to be a major headwind for the Austin market reinforcing the need to increase our supply of affordable homes. "Motivated sellers should carefully weigh buyers' affordability amid still-elevated mortgage rates and the significant uptick in supply." More: Latest Austin-area home sales report delivers promising news for first-time buyers "The median sales price increased nearly 40% from 2019 to 2024 in the (Austin metro area). In other words, sellers are sitting on large home equity gains and will be able to reap most of those gains even should they price their homes more appropriately for our current market. I think this indicates a 10% to 15% reduction in home prices to meaningfully induce more buyers off the sidelines," Knapp said. For context: In recent years, sharply rising home prices have come as a shock to many Austinites. Real estate agents and industry experts continue to say that prices in the Austin region are a relative bargain for people moving in from the coasts and some other parts of the country, seeking lower taxes and home prices. More: Market forces keep squeezing Austin-area apartment renters Wendler: In a different take on affordability, Wendler said this back in 2021: "When folks talk about Austin being unaffordable, they really don't understand the market. Unaffordable units do not sell or rent. Austin is affordable. It's just not affordable for the folks that have lived here a long time or affordable for someone who works in the service industry." More: Austin housing boom has homebuilders struggling to keep pace, prices soaring Havel: 'While several unknowns still exist in terms of the national economy, political changes and mortgage rates in 2025, we believe Austin's population and economy will continue to grow, and that growth will fuel the demand for homeownership. As such, Tri Pointe is looking forward to building about 400 homes in the Austin area in 2025 and continuing the growth we have seen over the past five years.' Those homes will be across 10 communities in the region, including Lariat, Park Central, Heritage and Retreat at San Gabriel. In the Austin market, Tri Pointe Home's base prices range between $349,000 and $700,000, depending on the community. Mitchell: "The most important factor affecting home sales is whether a region's economy is strong. Austin metro's economy is still one of the strongest in the country, and billions of dollars of investment is presently occurring that will continue to strengthen Austin's economy. The housing market should improve as a result." Glasshagel: "Keep an eye on job growth. Not just overall numbers, but the quality of job growth. Are we adding enough high-paying jobs to keep up with where home prices have gone in the market?" Santos: "We're watching (job growth) very closely. While job growth has certainly slowed, Texas and Austin continue to offer an attractive lifestyle and overall affordability that appeals to many people." Glasshagel: "For buyers, the new home market has fantastic opportunities. With builders buying down rates and negotiating on inventory homes, there are really good opportunities out there. Waiting three months or six months for rates to move might cause you to miss out on opportunities in the market today." Knapp: 'Despite sustained high mortgage rates, buyers benefit from more negotiating power with the higher level of active listings on the market. Meanwhile, even after pricing homes more realistically, sellers can still reap the substantial portion of home equity gains accrued during the pandemic.' Santos: "Sellers of resale homes will 100% need to be more realistic about pricing in order to sell their homes and stay competitive with new construction homes" (for which builders can offer financial incentives and mortgage rate buydowns). These offers really are unmatched right now, making new construction homes even more appealing and affordable. "I would encourage anyone looking to sell their home right now to consider the competitiveness of the market and why they want or need to sell at this very moment. It might be worth holding off for the time being to see what happens with interest rates." Here is a breakdown of housing statistics from the Austin Board of Realtors for 2024: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA 29,872 – Residential homes sold, 0.5% less than 2023 $445,000 – Median price for residential homes, 1.7% less than 2023 45,449 – New home listings on the market, 8.7% more than 2023 132,993 – Active home listings on the market, 14.7% more than 2023 30,369 – Pending sales, 2.2% more than 2023 $17,094,934,330 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 1.5% less than 2023 Travis County 13,203 – Residential homes sold, 3.2% less than 2023 $515,000 – Median price for residential homes, 0.4% less than 2023 21,741 – New home listings on the market, 4.5% more than 2023 65,636 – Active home listings on the market, 17.1% more than 2023 13,393 – Pending sales, 0.8% less than 2023 $9,172,819,720 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 2.9% less than 2023 Williamson County 10,360 – Residential homes sold, 2.0% less than 2023 $429,000 – Median price for residential homes, 1.4% less than 2023 14,110 – New home listings on the market, 9.2% more than 2023 38,015 – Active home listings on the market, 9.9% more than 2023 10,545 – Pending sales, 0.8% more than 2023 $5,031,902,867 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 3.4% less than 2023 Hays County 4,526 – Residential homes sold, 7.3% more than 2023 $380,000 – Median price for residential homes, 4.8% less than 2023 6,772 – New home listings on the market, 19.1% more than 2023 20,330 – Active home listings on the market, 14.4% more than 2023 4,622 – Pending sales, 10.8% more than 2023 $2,200,405,726 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 6.3% more than 2023 Bastrop County 1,310 – Residential homes sold, 7.2% more than 2023 $360,000 – Median price for residential homes, 2.7% less than 2023 2,170 – New home listings on the market, 18.8% more than 2023 7,259 – Active home listings on the market, 19.1% more than 2023 1,323 – Pending sales, 7.9% more than 2023 $532,811,486 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 5.5% more than 2023 Caldwell County 473 – Residential homes sold, 26.1% more than 2023 $294,990 – Median price for residential homes, 1.7% less than 2023 656 – New home listings on the market, 16.9% more than 2023 1,753 – Active home listings on the market, 17.7% more than 2023 486 – Pending sales, 31.4% more than 2023 $124,067,144 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, flat compared to 2023 This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin-area housing market trends are expected to mirror last year's
