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The Age
25-07-2025
- Business
- The Age
A China shock 2.0 is emerging to rock America
Yet instead of pursuing the policies needed to meet this threat head-on, the MAGA agenda is heavily focused on fighting the last war – on bringing manufacturing jobs lost to China and elsewhere back to the US. The challenge, Autor and Hanson argue, is not that of attempting to resuscitate the industrial might of a bygone age, but ensuring that the US is front and centre of the new technologies and able to convincingly harness them to its own ends. This endeavour is not obviously helped by Trump's scattergun approach to tariffs, punishing friend and foe alike, his propensity to alienate rather than co-operate with allies, the stupefying attacks on scientific research and the repudiation of foreign talent – once the very lifeblood of American advancement. Nor is it helped by the administration's casual disregard for the great asset of dollar hegemony which, bizarrely, Stephen Miran, Trump's chief economic adviser, seems to regard as in some way partly responsible for America's de-industrialisation. An administration seemingly hell-bent on fiscal ruin, and on weakening the dollar for the purposes of making US goods more competitive, doesn't exactly inspire international confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency asset. Loading China, by contrast, is investing heavily in the digital yuan as a way of internationalising its own currency, of offering an alternative to the fool's gold of cryptocurrency and of usurping the dollar for cross-border payments. Already, it is making steady progress. Why any longer should Brazil use the dollar for selling soybeans to China when Trump threatens the country with punitive tariffs for the sin of prosecuting his friend, Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president? Why indeed should it employ the dollar at all when the US regularly uses its power for extraterritorial purposes? In the developing world, Western influence is waning fast; China has been quick and single-minded at moving into its place. China has many problems and challenges, from the demographic to the still-deflating credit and property bubbles. But its catch-up and overtake approach to the technologies of the future is already paying big dividends. As, too, is the aggressive expansion of China's universities sector, originally begun under Jiang Zemin's presidency in the late 1990s, and heavily focused on Stem (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), the US-led China in 60 of 64 frontier technologies as recently as 2007, judged by share of the world's most-cited research, while China led the US in three. However, by 2023, these rankings were reversed, with China leading in 57 of 64 key technologies, and the US in seven. 'China has built the foundations to position itself as the world's leading science and technology superpower, by establishing a sometimes stunning lead in high-impact research across the majority of critical and emerging technology domains,' the ASPI says. All of the world's top 10 research institutions in some technologies are based in China, and are already collectively generating nine times more high-impact research papers than the second-ranked country (most often the US). The potential threat from Chinese AI is too great to ignore. Now, globally recognised companies at the forefront of their industries – such as Huawei in telecommunications, BYD in electric vehicles and Longi in solar wafers – have come from nowhere in less than 30 years to achieve world-leading positions. Industrial policy in China has, moreover, deliberately targeted key choke points in the supply chain, such that the US was this week forced to abandon its ban on the export of H20 Nvidia chips to China in return for China lifting similar export restrictions on the rare earth minerals vital to many hi-tech industries. The Nvidia ban was completely pointless in any case, serving only to turbocharge Chinese attempts to develop alternatives. Autor and Hanson suggest that the correct response to the China 2.0 shock is for the US to act in unison with commercial allies such as the EU, Japan, Canada, the UK, Australia and South Korea. Loading Counter-intuitively, Chinese companies should also be encouraged to set up production facilities in the US and elsewhere, rather similarly to the way that China once enticed Western companies to do the same in China as a way of speeding up technology transfer. Replicating Chinese industrial policy by aggressively promoting innovation in new fields, as happened in America and Europe during the Second World War, could also help narrow China's lead. It scarcely needs saying that Trump's America is at present doing the opposite of all these things. But just because Trump has got his head buried in the sand doesn't mean other nations should do the same. The potential threat from Chinese AI is too great to ignore. If China gets there first, it will reshape the world in its own image, and 'the end of history' will look very different from the one outlined by Francis Fukuyama back in 1992, when he declared the final triumph of liberal democracy.
Sydney Morning Herald
25-07-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
A China shock 2.0 is emerging to rock America
Yet instead of pursuing the policies needed to meet this threat head-on, the MAGA agenda is heavily focused on fighting the last war – on bringing manufacturing jobs lost to China and elsewhere back to the US. The challenge, Autor and Hanson argue, is not that of attempting to resuscitate the industrial might of a bygone age, but ensuring that the US is front and centre of the new technologies and able to convincingly harness them to its own ends. This endeavour is not obviously helped by Trump's scattergun approach to tariffs, punishing friend and foe alike, his propensity to alienate rather than co-operate with allies, the stupefying attacks on scientific research and the repudiation of foreign talent – once the very lifeblood of American advancement. Nor is it helped by the administration's casual disregard for the great asset of dollar hegemony which, bizarrely, Stephen Miran, Trump's chief economic adviser, seems to regard as in some way partly responsible for America's de-industrialisation. An administration seemingly hell-bent on fiscal ruin, and on weakening the dollar for the purposes of making US goods more competitive, doesn't exactly inspire international confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency asset. Loading China, by contrast, is investing heavily in the digital yuan as a way of internationalising its own currency, of offering an alternative to the fool's gold of cryptocurrency and of usurping the dollar for cross-border payments. Already, it is making steady progress. Why any longer should Brazil use the dollar for selling soybeans to China when Trump threatens the country with punitive tariffs for the sin of prosecuting his friend, Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president? Why indeed should it employ the dollar at all when the US regularly uses its power for extraterritorial purposes? In the developing world, Western influence is waning fast; China has been quick and single-minded at moving into its place. China has many problems and challenges, from the demographic to the still-deflating credit and property bubbles. But its catch-up and overtake approach to the technologies of the future is already paying big dividends. As, too, is the aggressive expansion of China's universities sector, originally begun under Jiang Zemin's presidency in the late 1990s, and heavily focused on Stem (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), the US-led China in 60 of 64 frontier technologies as recently as 2007, judged by share of the world's most-cited research, while China led the US in three. However, by 2023, these rankings were reversed, with China leading in 57 of 64 key technologies, and the US in seven. 'China has built the foundations to position itself as the world's leading science and technology superpower, by establishing a sometimes stunning lead in high-impact research across the majority of critical and emerging technology domains,' the ASPI says. All of the world's top 10 research institutions in some technologies are based in China, and are already collectively generating nine times more high-impact research papers than the second-ranked country (most often the US). The potential threat from Chinese AI is too great to ignore. Now, globally recognised companies at the forefront of their industries – such as Huawei in telecommunications, BYD in electric vehicles and Longi in solar wafers – have come from nowhere in less than 30 years to achieve world-leading positions. Industrial policy in China has, moreover, deliberately targeted key choke points in the supply chain, such that the US was this week forced to abandon its ban on the export of H20 Nvidia chips to China in return for China lifting similar export restrictions on the rare earth minerals vital to many hi-tech industries. The Nvidia ban was completely pointless in any case, serving only to turbocharge Chinese attempts to develop alternatives. Autor and Hanson suggest that the correct response to the China 2.0 shock is for the US to act in unison with commercial allies such as the EU, Japan, Canada, the UK, Australia and South Korea. Loading Counter-intuitively, Chinese companies should also be encouraged to set up production facilities in the US and elsewhere, rather similarly to the way that China once enticed Western companies to do the same in China as a way of speeding up technology transfer. Replicating Chinese industrial policy by aggressively promoting innovation in new fields, as happened in America and Europe during the Second World War, could also help narrow China's lead. It scarcely needs saying that Trump's America is at present doing the opposite of all these things. But just because Trump has got his head buried in the sand doesn't mean other nations should do the same. The potential threat from Chinese AI is too great to ignore. If China gets there first, it will reshape the world in its own image, and 'the end of history' will look very different from the one outlined by Francis Fukuyama back in 1992, when he declared the final triumph of liberal democracy.
Time of India
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
Chilling AI prediction: A Mad Max-like future for jobs may be coming; top economist warns
Chilling AI prediction: A Mad Max-like future for jobs may be coming; top economist warns Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping our world in profound ways—from improving medical diagnostics to powering chatbots and self-driving cars. But not all of its impacts are positive. In a Business Insider interview on the 'Possible' podcast, MIT economist David Autor sounded a serious caution: AI could turn our labour market into something resembling a Mad Max wasteland. While this doesn't mean total job loss, it does mean something equally alarming—the devaluation of once-valuable skills, pushing many into poorly paid work with limited advancement, as reported by Business Insider. This warning comes amid broader studies, such as a Salesforce projection that up to 23% of the workforce could be redeployed due to AI in the next two years (Business Insider, citing Salesforce). The underlying concern is clear: AI may not take jobs outright, but it could severely undermine what makes work valuable. Autor's analogy to Mad Max warns of a world where technology runs rampant and wealth concentrates at the top. Instead of liberation, AI could exacerbate income inequality and leave most people scrambling for low-end service roles. This article explores Autor's caution, what's driving this concern, which sectors are most vulnerable, and why intentional design and workforce planning are critical to avoid an AI-driven dystopia. Why AI may devalue skills, not just eliminate jobs Autor argues that the threat AI poses is more subtle than mass unemployment. Instead of taking jobs, it may strip roles of their expert value, turning once-specialised skills into commodities. How skills become obsolete: Automation of routine tasks : Industries like typing, factory work, and taxi driving saw initial waves of automation. With AI, even roles requiring moderate skill—like legal document review or marketing analysis—are now at risk. Commoditised skills : Resources like touch typing were once prized. Once AI can perform those actions without fatigue or error, such skills lose their edge. 'The threat… is not running out of work, but making the valuable skills that people have highly abundant so they're no longer valuable,' Autor explained. The 'Mad Max' comparison: What it means Autor's bleak vision is inspired by the Mad Max universe—a world marked by scarcity, brutal competition, and centralised power. He sees an economic parallel: AI empowers a few, while the majority struggle. Concentrated gains : Wealth and influence accrue to companies and individuals who own AI systems. Downshifted labour : Workers may be forced into low-paying, low-skill roles like cleaning, food delivery, and basic services. Wage pressure : With AI handling high-value tasks, remaining jobs lose bargaining power and income potential. How many people could be affected? A Salesforce study cited by Business Insider estimates that 23% of the global workforce may be redeployed in the next two years due to increased AI adoption. This includes changes in roles, responsibilities, or sectors. While not everyone will lose their job, many may find themselves working in different, less lucrative positions—a dangerous shift that Autor warns could erode societal well-being if not managed. Sectors at risk and which might survive Most at risk Administrative and clerical roles: Invoice processing, scheduling, data entry. Transport and logistics: AI-driven navigation, sorting, and delivery systems. Retail and service: AI-operated ordering kiosks, stock management. More resilient areas Healthcare : Physicians and nurses require empathy, human judgment, and trust. Education : Teaching, mentoring, and social-emotional learning. Creative fields : Art, film, and design rely on originality and human creativity. Complex caretaking : Therapy, social services, and community-based support. Autor emphasises these roles as critical to ensuring AI serves humans, not the other way around. What Autor says should be done Autor recognises the potential for AI to enhance human capabilities—but only if implemented thoughtfully. He urges: Design with purpose : Choose paths where AI complements human efforts, especially in healthcare, education, and social care. Policy foresight : Governments and regulators must steer AI development to avoid creating 'resource wars' over remaining low-skill jobs. Investment in people : Focus on helping workers transition—not just with new skills but also with basic income support and social protections. 'The future is not a forecasting exercise—it's a design exercise,' Autor said, as reported in Business Insider. He insists the AI future must be built deliberately, not left to chance. Also read | Sam Altman's AI warning: Millions of jobs are at risk—here's why AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
NDTV
05-07-2025
- Business
- NDTV
AI To Create Mad Max-Like Future? Top Economist's Chilling Prediction
MIT economist David Autor has warned that rapid automation caused by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to a Mad Max scenario where jobs may still exist, but the skills that once generated wages would become less valuable, making the paychecks smaller and existence difficult. "The more likely scenario to me looks much more like Mad Max: Fury Road, where everybody is competing over a few remaining resources that aren't controlled by some warlord somewhere," Mr Autor said on the Possible podcast, hosted by LinkedIn cofounder Reed Hoffman. The reference by Mr Autor is from the 2015 movie by George Miller, set in a post-apocalyptic wasteland where scarcity and inequality prevail while a tyrant rules over the hapless population. Mr Autor believes that AI could concentrate the wealth in the hands of people at the top while the workers fight for morsels. "The threat that rapid automation poses - to the degree it poses as a threat - is not running out of work, but making the valuable skills that people have highly abundant so they're no longer valuable," he said, adding that roles like typists, factory technicians, and even taxi driver might be replaced. AI to take away jobs Mr Autor is not the only one warning about a dystopian AI future. In May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI could soon wipe out 50 per cent of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years. He added that governments across the world were downplaying the threat when AI's rising use could lead to a significant spike in unemployment numbers. "We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming. I don't think this is on people's radar," said Mr Amodei. According to the Anthropic boss, unemployment could increase by 10 per cent to 20 per cent over the next five years, with most of the people 'unaware' about what was coming. "Most of them are unaware that this is about to happen. It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it," he said. "It's a very strange set of dynamics where we're saying: 'You should be worried about where the technology we're building is going.'"
Business Insider
03-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
AI could create a 'Mad Max' scenario where everyone's skills are basically worthless, a top economist says
As AI reshapes the labor market, the real threat may not be unemployment — it could be something subtler and more corrosive: the collapse in what skills are worth. That's according to MIT economist David Autor, who made the comments in an interview released Wednesday on the "Possible" podcast, hosted by LinkedIn cofounder Reed Hoffman. Autor warned that rapid automation could usher in what he calls a "Mad Max" scenario — a world where jobs still exist, but the skills that once generated wages become cheap and commoditized. "The more likely scenario to me looks much more like Mad Max: Fury Road, where everybody is competing over a few remaining resources that aren't controlled by some warlord somewhere," he said. The reference, drawn from the dystopian film series set in a post-collapse world of scarcity and inequality, captures Autor's fear that AI could concentrate wealth and power at the top while leaving most workers to fight over what's left. While several economists and some tech CEOs worry AI could displace millions of workers, Autor argued that the damage may play out differently, through the devaluation of once-valuable skills. "The threat that rapid automation poses — to the degree it poses as a threat — is not running out of work, but making the valuable skills that people have highly abundant so they're no longer valuable," he said. He pointed to roles like touch typists, factory technicians, and even taxi drivers as examples — all skilled, well-paying jobs that technology has downgraded or, in some cases, replaced. "It used to be that touch typing was a very valuable skill. Not so much anymore," he said. This doesn't mean people will be unemployed, he added. Instead, many are likely to shift into lower-paid service jobs — in food service, cleaning, security — that require little training and offer minimal pay. "Automation can either increase the expertise of your work by eliminating the supporting tasks and allowing you to focus on what you're really good at," he said. "Or, it can descale your work by automating the expert parts and just leaving you with a sort of last mile." Autor's concern is increasingly reflected in the corporate world. A May Salesforce study projected that 23% of workers will be redeployed over the next two years as AI adoption surges, and even employees who stay in their current roles will see them evolve. Tech executives, meanwhile, are placing a growing premium on adaptability, creativity, and the ability to work with AI tools, not just technical specialization. To avoid a future where technology widens inequality, Autor said we must intentionally design AI to support workers. "As my friend Josh Cohen, a philosopher, likes to say, 'The future is not a forecasting exercise — it's a design exercise, you're building it.'" "And so, breaking our way is not just a matter of luck. It's a matter of making good collective choices, and that's extremely hard to do." For Autor, the best place to start is by focusing AI where it can do the most good: expanding access to healthcare, education, and meaningful work. "Healthcare and education — two activities that in the United States has 20% GDP, a lot of it public money, actually — this is where there's such a great opportunity where AI could be a tool that could be so helpful to us in a way that other tools have not been." "Many of these things are feasible," he continued. "If we think we're not going to do them, it's not because we couldn't do them. It's because we're somehow not delivering on what is feasible."
