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Lightning Strikes Twice for AXON as Analysts Eye $1,000 Price Target
Lightning Strikes Twice for AXON as Analysts Eye $1,000 Price Target

Business Insider

time08-08-2025

  • Business
  • Business Insider

Lightning Strikes Twice for AXON as Analysts Eye $1,000 Price Target

Excitement is peaking at Axon Enterprise (AXON), the company behind TASERs, security body cameras, and cutting-edge cloud software for public safety. Earlier this week, the company published stellar earnings results, helping the stock to repeat history, almost to the day. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. On August 6th, 2024, the company reported better-than-expected earnings of $1.15 per share and immediately spiked higher on the news, before consolidating its gains in the weeks ahead. Judging by the stock's reaction to this year's figures so far this week, it would seem AXON's upward trend remains intact. AXON's latest Q2 report hit like a bombshell, sending the stock up 17% since Monday and pushing its gain to ~150% over the past year. With accelerating top-line growth and surging profitability, Axon is leveraging AI and exceptional customer retention to strengthen its grip on a recession-resistant industry. While the valuation is undeniably rich, this is a unique business—one that rarely, if ever, trades at a discount. That's why AXON remains one of my largest holdings. Revenue Growth Keeps Punching Above 30% Axon's Q2 revenue clocked in at $669 million, a 33% jump from last year. Not only did this mark the sixth consecutive quarter of above 30% revenue growth, but in fact, it accelerated from Q1's already impressive 31% clip. The software and services segment was the star of the show, up 39% to $292 million, fueled by premium digital evidence management and new AI tools like auto-transcription. Management emphasized strong demand for TASER 10 and Axon Body 4 as well, with platform solutions like counter-drone tech growing 86%. AI's integration is streamlining police workflows, saving 6-12 hours per officer weekly, and with annual recurring revenue (ARR) hitting $1.2 billion, up 39%, this growth train's got serious momentum. International expansion, particularly in Europe, and enterprise customer wins are also juicing numbers. In the post-earnings call, CEO Rick Smith discussed their 'product-led flywheel,' where new products drive subscriptions, which in turn drive more innovation. AI's role here is enormous, as tools like Draft One and live translation are boosting adoption, and with $10 billion in future contracted bookings, Axon's growth looks locked in for years. Then you have new tools like Evidence Translation and Smart Capture that are set to roll out, and make Axon's ecosystem even stickier. Evidently, with a net revenue retention rate of 124%, customers aren't just renewing their subscriptions, but they're spending more year after year. Margin Expansion Fuels Profit Powerhouse Profitability-wise, Axon's adjusted EBITDA hit $172 million in Q2, up 37%, with a margin of 25.7%, beating expectations. Management credited higher revenue and operating leverage, but the real magic seems to be in the product mix. Software and services, with a 75.6% gross margin, grew way faster than hardware, offsetting lower device margins from newer products like counter-drone systems. AXON's management commented in the earnings call that AI-driven efficiencies, like video auditing and real-time operations tools, are raising margins by cutting manual work. This focus on high-margin software helped adjusted net income reach $174 million, driving EPS to $2.12, well above analyst estimates. Earlier, Axon had flagged tariffs as a potential margin hit, but it seems they are easily absorbing those costs while still targeting a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year. AXON Stock Valuation Remains Pricey Yet Justified Axon's current valuation is eye-watering. Trading at a P/S of 25 and a P/E of 131 based on 2025's projected $2.72 billion revenue and $6.60 EPS, this is easily one of the most expensive stocks in the market. However, the truth is that Axon has been trading at these lofty multiples for years, and time after time it has delivered. With revenue growth showing no signs of slowing and AI efficiencies kicking in, I'm not betting on multiple contractions anytime soon. Then you have to think of Axon's monopoly-like grip on public safety tech (TASERs, body cams, and cloud software), on top of operating in a recession-proof space. Police budgets don't decline in downturns, and Axon's ecosystem is sticky, with customers locked into long-term contracts. At the same time, AI is set to supercharge profitability, potentially shrinking that P/E as EPS grows faster than the stock price. I would argue that a run to $1,000 per share, which would imply a P/S near 30, might raise eyebrows, but for a business this dominant, it's not crazy. What is the Price Target for AXON in 2025? There are 16 analysts offering price targets on AXON stock via TipRanks, with an overwhelming bullish consensus. Currently, the stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 15 Buy and one Hold ratings over the past three months. No analyst rates the stock a sell. AXON's average stock price target of $857.07 implies less than 1% downside over the next twelve months. However, Wall Street has yet to update its post-earnings estimates, which will likely move higher after such a strong beat. Time to Back AXON as a Generational Compounder At the end of the day, Axon is doing what top-tier companies do: beating growth expectations, widening margins, and securing long-term customers with essential technology. Sure, the valuation may look toppy and extreme through a traditional lens—but with AI amplifying its model and public safety spending proving recession-proof, AXON's fundamentals remain rock-solid. I'm not trimming a single share because I believe it's wiser to add to generational compounders—history shows the market usually ends up playing catch-up to their long-term potential.

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth and Raised ...
Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth and Raised ...

Yahoo

time05-08-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth and Raised ...

Revenue: $669 million, increased 33% year-over-year. Software and Services Revenue: $292 million, grew 39% year-over-year. Connected Devices Revenue: $376 million, increased 29% year-over-year. TASER Revenue: Grew 19%, driven by TASER 10. Personal Sensors Revenue: Grew 24%, driven by Axon Body 4. Platform Solutions Revenue: Grew 86%, driven by counter-drone and virtual reality. Net Revenue Retention: Increased to 124%. Adjusted Gross Margin: 63.3%, up 20 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 25.7%. 2025 Revenue Guidance: Raised to $2.65 billion to $2.73 billion, approximately 29% annual growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Raised to $665 million to $685 million. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Sign with AXON. Release Date: August 04, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Axon Enterprise Inc (NASDAQ:AXON) reported a 33% year-over-year increase in second-quarter revenue, marking its 14th consecutive quarter of over 25% revenue growth. The company experienced strong growth in its Software and Services segment, which grew 39% year-over-year to $292 million. Axon Enterprise Inc (NASDAQ:AXON) raised its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $2.65 billion to $2.73 billion, reflecting approximately 29% annual growth at the midpoint. The company closed almost $150 million of bookings for its AI Era Plan in Q2 alone, with over 30% of bookings this quarter coming from new product categories. Axon Enterprise Inc (NASDAQ:AXON) achieved its largest deal in company history with a major city police department, encompassing a wide range of products from drones to AI solutions. Negative Points Despite strong growth, the company faces challenges with tariffs, which are expected to impact financials more in the second half of the year. The deployment of enterprise solutions is complex and presents challenges, as it involves aggregating large amounts of video data. The company anticipates lumpiness in its Platform Solutions segment due to the nature of large deals, particularly in counter-drone technology. Axon Enterprise Inc (NASDAQ:AXON) is still in the early stages of monetizing its drone technology, with current revenue primarily coming from software rather than hardware. The company acknowledges the need for continued investment in R&D and sales to maintain its growth trajectory, which could impact short-term profitability. Q & A Highlights Q: Can you discuss the enterprise addressable market and which products are gaining traction? A: Enterprise is performing well with interest across a broad range of products, including Body Cams, Fusus, and drones. The full suite of products is gaining traction, and the largest deal in company history was booked this quarter, driven by strong execution from the product and sales teams. - Josh Isner, President Q: Could you elaborate on the $150 million of bookings from the AI Era Plan in Q2? A: The AI Era Plan is accelerating, with significant demand for Draft One and other AI products like AI Assistant and real-time translator. The plan is well-received due to the time savings and practical applications it offers to customers. - Josh Isner, President Q: What underpinned the success of Platform Solutions, particularly in counter-drone technology? A: The success is driven by increased awareness of drone threats, as seen in global conflicts. Our acquisition of Dedrone positions us as a market leader in counter-drone solutions, with growing demand across various sectors. - Patrick Smith, CEO Q: What is driving the high 30% bookings growth guidance, and how does the pipeline look? A: The growth is driven by selling new products to existing customers and expanding into new markets like international and enterprise. The diversified product portfolio and strong pipeline give us confidence in achieving the growth target. - Josh Isner, President Q: How are AI bookings progressing, and what lessons have been learned in overcoming hurdles? A: AI bookings are progressing well, with hands-on product trials proving effective in demonstrating value. Products like Draft One and AI Assist are helping officers spend more time in the field, and the focus remains on practical applications that enhance public safety. - Josh Isner, President For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Will Strong TASER Demand Continue to Guide Axon's Connected Devices Unit?
Will Strong TASER Demand Continue to Guide Axon's Connected Devices Unit?

Yahoo

time12-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Will Strong TASER Demand Continue to Guide Axon's Connected Devices Unit?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON is expanding its footprint in the public safety technology space, with the Connected Devices segment playing an important role in overall growth. In the first quarter of 2025, the segment's revenues surged 26.1% year over year, reflecting strong momentum across its product ongoing demand for TASER devices is the core component of the segment's success. AXON continues to benefit from the rising popularity of its next-generation TASER 10 products, which began shipping in 2023. Revenues from TASER devices increased $30.9 million year over year in the first quarter, driven by the higher volume of TASER 10 handles and demand for virtual reality training services and counter drone equipment continues to support the segment's growth. Axon launched the next-generation body-worn camera, Axon Body 4, in April 2023, which has added momentum as well. Equipped with enhanced features such as a bi-directional communication facility and a point-of-view camera module option, the product is generating strong customer demand, thus bolstering the segment's growth. The Connected Devices unit is also benefiting from increased warranty revenues from a higher volume of deployed devices in the rising global security concerns, including increasing instances of terrorism and criminal activities, demand for advanced public safety technologies is expected to remain strong. These trends are likely to support the ongoing demand for Axon's Connected Devices portfolio, positioning the segment well for sustained momentum in the quarters ahead. Among its major peers, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s KTOS Kratos Government Solutions segment reported net revenues of $239.5 million in the first quarter of 2025, increasing 10% on a year-over-year basis. Kratos generated 79.1% of its total revenues from this segment in the quarter. The revenue improvement for Kratos' segment can be attributed to notable growth in its C5ISR, Defense Rocket Support and Microwave Products Technologies Incorporated's TDY Digital Imaging segment's first-quarter 2025 revenues increased 2.2% year over year to $757 million. This was driven by higher sales of Teledyne's commercial infrared imaging components and surveillance systems. Teledyne derived 52.2% of its total revenues from this segment during the quarter. Shares of Axon have surged 165.2% in the past year compared with the industry's growth of 42.1%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, AXON is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 1,156.40X above the industry's average of 46.32X. Axon carries a Value Score of F. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXON's second-quarter 2025 earnings has been on the rise over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Axon Enterprise, Inc (AXON) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research

Axon Enterprise's Expenses are on the Rise: Will It Affect Margins?
Axon Enterprise's Expenses are on the Rise: Will It Affect Margins?

Yahoo

time06-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Axon Enterprise's Expenses are on the Rise: Will It Affect Margins?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON has been grappling with rising costs and expenses over time. AXON reported an uptick in costs and expenses during the first quarter of 2025. The company's cost of sales rose 18.2% year over year in the first quarter. The metric surged 39% year over year in 2024. AXON's selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses also increased 48% year over year in the first quarter. The same rose 49.8% year over year in 2024. Key factors behind the company's high costs and SG&A expenses included business integration activities, increased headcount, higher wages and stock-based compensation the rising costs, in the first quarter, AXON's adjusted gross margin increased 40 basis points to 63.6%. Also, its adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 25.7% from 23.7% in the year-ago period. The improvement in margins was driven by higher revenues generated from robust sales for TASER 10, Axon Body 4 and platform sensor products. The company reported revenues of $603.6 million in the quarter, which increased 31.3% year over year. Axon Enterprise's focus on effective cost management and revenue improvement is likely to expand its margin performance. For 2025, AXON expects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $650-$675 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%.It's worth noting that, effective first-quarter 2025, Axon Enterprise realigned its business segments. This realignment is expected to enhance the company's visibility into segment-specific performance and enable it to effectively manage its costs. This strategic move will likely support Axon Enterprise's ongoing margin improvement and operational efficiency. Among its major peers, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS is facing cost pressure. Its cost of sales increased 11.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Kratos' SG&A expenses rose 4.8%, year over year in the same period. Kratos' gross margin declined 30 basis points to 24.3% in the first escalating costs and expenses are also a concern for Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY. Teledyne's cost of sales rose 7.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2025. The company's SG&A expenses also increased 6.5% year over year. Teledyne's gross margin declined 320 basis points to 42.7% in the same period. Shares of Axon Enterprise have surged 181.1% in the past year compared with the industry's growth of 20.8%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, AXON is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 1,195.30X above the industry's average of 45.34X. Axon carries a Value Score of F. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXON's 2025 earnings has been on the rise over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Axon Enterprise, Inc (AXON) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Axon Enterprise Trades Near 52-Week High: Should You Buy Now or Wait?
Axon Enterprise Trades Near 52-Week High: Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Yahoo

time03-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Axon Enterprise Trades Near 52-Week High: Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Shares of Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON have been showing impressive gains of late, trading close to its 52-week high of $765.00. The stock closed at $758.57 on Monday, 0.8% below the highest point. Shares of the conducted energy devices (CEDs) manufacturer have surged 27.7% year to date, outpacing the Zacks sub-industry's and the S&P 500's growth of 14.4% and 0.1%, company's peers, including Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS and Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY, have gained 44.2% and 6.5%, respectively, over the same time frame. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The stock is also trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and price stability. This reflects a positive market sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health and long-term prospects. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The strongest driver of Axon Enterprise's business at the moment is solid momentum in its Connected Devices segment. The segment's revenues increased 26.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2025. The company continues to witness growing popularity for its next-generation TASER 10 products, whose shipment began in 2023. Growth in cartridge revenues, driven by the higher adoption of the TASER products, has been driving the segment's Enterprise introduced its next-generation body-worn camera, Axon Body 4, in April 2023. With upgraded features such as a bi-directional communications facility and a point-of-view camera module option, this body camera is generating significant demand, thus bolstering the segment's growth. Shipment of this body camera began in June 2023 and the customer response has been impressive so increase in the aggregate number of users to the Axon Enterprise network is aiding the Software & Services segment. After witnessing a year-over-year 33.4% jump in 2024, revenues from the segment also increased 39% in the first quarter. Continued momentum in digital evidence management and increased demand for premium add-on features are driving the segment's of premium subscription plans also continues to rise as more customers recognize the value of enhanced capabilities. This ongoing expansion supports a growing base of annual recurring revenues (ARR). Strong customer alignment, broader adoption across sectors and continuous product innovation led Axon Enterprise to raise its guidance for now expects revenues to be in the band of $2.60-$2.70 billion compared with $2.55-$2.65 billion expected earlier, indicating growth of approximately 27% year over year at the company's strategic partnership with other companies enables it to expand its product offerings and customer base. In June 2024, Axon Enterprise entered into a partnership with Skydio (a leading U.S. drone manufacturer) to introduce a comprehensive line of drones in public safety that includes a scalable Drone as First Responder (DFR) solution. The combined offering will support the company's DFR programs across its customer base and strengthen its market position in this category. Axon Enterprise's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is indicative of its growth potential. ROE for the trailing 12 months is 21.98%, higher than the industry's 11.08%. This reflects the company's efficient usage of shareholder funds. In comparison, ROE for its peers, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and Teledyne Technologies, is pegged at 5.68% and 9.95%, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Earnings estimates for AXON have moved north over the past 30 days, reflecting analysts' optimism. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.15 per share, reflecting an increase of 0.7% in the past 30 days. The figure indicates year-over-year growth of 3.5%. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings is pinned at $7.55 per share, increasing 0.3% in the past 30 days. The figure also indicates year-over-year growth of 22.8%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Despite the positives, the escalating costs and expenses are a concern for Axon Enterprise's bottom line. In 2024, its cost of sales soared 39% year over year on higher wages and stock-based compensation expenses. The metric, as a percentage of sales, was 40.4% in the year, up 160 basis points. The trend followed in first-quarter 2025, with the cost of sales increasing 18.2% year over year. Also, the company's quarterly selling, general and administrative expenses increased 48% year over year. AXON's lofty valuation remains another concern. The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 112.59X, significantly higher than the industry average of 42.04X. This elevated valuation could make the stock vulnerable to further pullbacks if market sentiment sours. In comparison with AXON's valuation, Kratos Defense & Security and Teledyne Technologies are trading at 67.16X and 22.07X. Strong momentum across the Connected Devices and Software & Services segments, along with its investments in the AI space, drones and robotics, positions AXON favorably for impressive growth in the long run. Also, its collaboration with other companies to enhance public safety offerings and positive earnings estimates instill investor confidence. However, a few challenges, such as escalating operating expenses and premium valuation, are limiting this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company's near-term current shareholders should hold their positions, new investors should wait for the stock to retract some of its recent gains and provide a better entry point. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Axon Enterprise, Inc (AXON) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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