Latest news with #Azerbaijanis
Newsweek
4 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Putin Loses Influence in Backyard
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. His absence from World War II commemorations in Moscow was enough of a snub to Vladimir Putin, but Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev deepened his rift with the Russian leader by demanding Russia take responsibility for an air tragedy. Baku blames the Christmas Day crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 that came under fire over Grozny, Chechnya—killing 38 of the 67 on board—on a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system mistakenly targeting the plane amid a reported Ukrainian drone attack. Unhappy with Putin's lack of apology, Aliyev reiterated on Monday his demand for Russia to publicly acknowledge responsibility, punish those responsible, and compensate victims' families and the airline. But it is not just the plane crash that has frayed ties—tit-for-tat arrests and discontent from Baku toward Moscow's regional role as Putin remains preoccupied in Ukraine have also played their part. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, left, is seen with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, left, is seen with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, regional expert told Newsweek that ties between Azerbaijan and Russia are at their lowest point since the end of the Soviet Union. Another said Aliyev sees his country as the key shaper of the region now rather than Moscow. Ali Karimli, leader of Azerbaijan's democratic opposition, told Newsweek Aliyev had distanced himself from Moscow following the fall of Putin's ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which signaled a weakening of Russian strength in the wider region. Aliyev "began to realize that Russia was not as powerful as once assumed," he said. Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries in Russia and Azerbaijan for comment. Baku's Harsh Reaction With a shared Soviet past, fossil-fuel dominated economies and authoritarian leaders, Russia and Azerbaijan have much in common. But Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has upended Russia's regional role and Aliyev has spotted an opportunity to capitalize on Putin's tepid response to a tragic plane crash. Half a year later, tensions between the countries spilled over again following the arrests in June of dozens of Azerbaijanis in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. The Azerbaijanis, all Russian citizens, were taken into custody in a raid as part of an inquiry into cold case murders over the previous two decades. Those detained were beaten, and two brothers—the main suspects died. Azerbaijani authorities accused Russian security forces of deliberately killing their nationals. Russian cultural events in Azerbaijan were canceled, and the Baku office of the Kremlin's Sputnik news agency was raided and its employees detained. "Russia didn't expect such a harsh reaction from Baku," Konul de Moor, International Crisis Group's consulting South Caucasus analyst, told Newsweek. "Their relationship is the lowest it has ever been since Azerbaijan gained its independence." Karimli, leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party and a former secretary of state whose opposition to Aliyev's rule has seen him face a travel ban and refused a passport by his country's authorities, told Newsweek the crash of Flight 8243 occurred when Aliyev was already pulling away from Moscow. At the onset of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Aliyev believed Moscow would win quickly and reestablish its dominance across the post-Soviet space. On February 22, 2022— two days before the invasion—Aliyev signed a declaration in Moscow with Putin affirming a bilateral alliance between Azerbaijan and Russia. But as the war dragged on and Russia suffered repeated strategic losses, Aliyev, like many others, began to realize that Russia was not as powerful as once assumed, and was in fact becoming weaker, Karimli said. The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria further convinced Aliyev of this decline—Russia had failed to protect one of its most valued allies, he said. Aliyev also observed how Turkey and the West were rapidly filling the vacuum left by Russia's retreat, not only in Syria but across the wider region. "While Putin saw Assad's fall as a major loss, Aliyev appeared to welcome the outcome and publicly described Assad's removal as a positive development—deliberately signaling political distance from Moscow," said Karimli. "He seemed to conclude that close association with Russia might actually be more dangerous than opposing it." Ali Karimli, Azerbaijan's former secretary of state and chairman of the democratic opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, is seen in this undated image. Ali Karimli, Azerbaijan's former secretary of state and chairman of the democratic opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, is seen in this undated image. Supplied Nagorno-Karabakh Withdrawal Before Assad's downfall, there had already been a shift in Russia's authority in the South Caucasus, an area Moscow considers its backyard. Russian peacekeepers deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war put up no resistance to Baku's blockade of the region. A Russian peacekeeping contingent left the region in 2024 ahead of schedule after not intervening in Baku's successful military operation to take full control of Nagorno-Karabakh from its separatist Armenian authorities in September 2023. Stefan Meister, head of the center for order and governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek that Azerbaijan winning the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and taking over the region prompted Aliyev to see Baku as a regional player Moscow can no longer dictate to. "Aliyev considers himself as the key shaper of the new regional security order, where Russia will not play the role it played in the past," he said. "Azerbaijan is not willing to accept compromises with Russia." This comes as Moscow faces a souring of ties with another regional neighbor. Armenia did not attend the latest summit of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, angered by the lack of solidarity from Russia when Baku captured Nagorno-Karabakh, an operation which Meister said emboldened Aliyev's attitude to Moscow. "Aliyev did what he did without getting punished by Russia," said Meister. "He saw the relative weakness of Moscow and the unwillingness also to go into conflict with Azerbaijan because Moscow needs them." Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi on July 10 for the first unmediated bilateral contact between the two leaders. It comes after Armenian prosecutors accused Moscow of trying to overthrow Yerevan's pro-Western government in 2024 in an alleged plot disrupted by local security forces. Armenia has since accelerated its policy of EU integration and distanced itself from the Moscow-led CSTO military alliance. Emergency specialists work at the site where Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed, near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, on December 25, 2024. Emergency specialists work at the site where Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed, near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, on December 25, with no free press, no functioning civil society, and the political opposition repressed, Azerbaijan is unlike Armenia, said Karimli adding that Aliyev may resist being in hock to Russia but he is equally unwilling to open up to the West. Azerbaijan may be strategically important to Russia but the reverse is also true with Russia a key partner for Aliyev, who understands that breaking with Putin would force him to deepen ties with Europe and the United States—something he is reluctant to do, given his wish to resist democratic reforms and preserve his authoritarian grip, Karimli added. "If Putin were to break with Aliyev, he would effectively lose his last remaining ally in the South Caucasus," he said. Putin also cannot overlook Baku's strategic alliance with Turkey and pushing Russia's relationship with Azerbaijan to breaking point could strain Moscow's ties with Ankara—something the Kremlin can ill afford under current geopolitical conditions, he added. Trade relations between Moscow and Baku are still strong, as is a mutual dependency on energy exports. Linguistic ties are also tight with Russian still widely spoken in Azerbaijan and nearly half (46 percent) of the total volume of remittances paid to Azerbaijan come from Russia, where, according to official data, more than 300,000 Azerbaijanis live. But Aliyev can also benefit from portraying Azerbaijan as a strategic partner of the West in the global confrontation with Russia, especially in the energy sector. "He has a better partnering position and it's more difficult for Russia to punish Aliyev or to escalate their relations too far," said Meister. Pushing back against Russia is a good card for Azerbaijan to play with the West, de Moor said, with the prospect of investment as Baku eyes energy-related projects bypassing Russia . All this marks a shift in the position of Russia in the South Caucasus. "Russia can't treat it as its near abroad any more," added de Moor.
The Star
21-07-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Kremlin acknowledges strain in Russia-Azerbaijan relations
FILE PHOTO: People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, July 1, 2025, in this still image from video. Reuters TV/via REUTERS/File Photo MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia-Azerbaijan relations are currently going through a challenging phase, but Moscow remains hopeful for improvement as the two countries share common interests, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. Tensions between Moscow and Baku have escalated in recent months following the detention of several ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia and the death of two of them in police custody. On Saturday Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, said he wanted Russia to publicly acknowledge that it had accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane in December last year, killing 38 people on board, and to punish those responsible. President Vladimir Putin apologised at the time to Aliyev for what the Kremlin called a "tragic incident" over Russia in which an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed after Russian air defences opened fire against Ukrainian drones. But Putin stopped short of saying Russia had shot down the aircraft. (Reporting by Dmitry AntonovWriting by Maxim Rodionov;Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
Straits Times
21-07-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Kremlin acknowledges strain in Russia-Azerbaijan relations
FILE PHOTO: People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, July 1, 2025, in this still image from video. Reuters TV/via REUTERS/File Photo MOSCOW - Russia-Azerbaijan relations are currently going through a challenging phase, but Moscow remains hopeful for improvement as the two countries share common interests, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. Tensions between Moscow and Baku have escalated in recent months following the detention of several ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia and the death of two of them in police custody. On Saturday Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, said he wanted Russia to publicly acknowledge that it had accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane in December last year, killing 38 people on board, and to punish those responsible. President Vladimir Putin apologised at the time to Aliyev for what the Kremlin called a "tragic incident" over Russia in which an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed after Russian air defences opened fire against Ukrainian drones. But Putin stopped short of saying Russia had shot down the aircraft. REUTERS
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Two sworn enemies unite against Putin
The collapse of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan came in a series of quick-fire blows. It began with the arrest of seven nationals from the former Soviet republic last month in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. They were held as part of an investigation by Moscow into mafia-style killings dating back 25 years. Within days, two suspects – both ethnic Azerbaijanis – died in custody. Others appeared in court visibly bruised and beaten. Azerbaijan responded with fury. Russian cultural events were cancelled, the Baku bureau of the Kremlin-owned Sputnik news agency was raided, and a group of Russian IT workers was arrested and accused of drug-trafficking and cybercrime. Then came the threat, on Russian state TV, that Baku could be 'taken in three days', echoing rhetoric used before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. War is unlikely. But the rift is real – and dangerous for Moscow because Armenia, after fighting a series of brutal wars with Azerbaijan over 30 years, is aligning with its old enemy to push Putin out of the South Caucasus. On July 10, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, met Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia. Their direct talks focused on the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed route linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia. The corridor would fulfil a pan-Turkic dream of physically connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey and would form part of the 'Middle Corridor' trade route from China and Central Asia to Europe. Under the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the route was to be monitored by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). But that arrangement is now under threat, with Mr Aliyev wanting to cut Moscow out of the deal and have it fully under Azerbaijani control. 'This is Russia's last big card in the region,' said Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi). 'It allows them to control trade routes and leverage relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Losing it would be a major blow.' Although the talks on July 10 were inconclusive, momentum is shifting. Mr Pashinyan visited Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, in Istanbul last month, a significant meeting given Armenia and Turkey have no formal diplomatic ties. Afterwards, Mr Erdoğan said Armenia was showing a 'more flexible approach' to the Zangezur Corridor, despite having previously opposed it. The West, meanwhile, has floated the idea of putting the route under neutral international control, such as a Swiss or American firm, effectively excluding Russia altogether. Like Azerbaijan's, Armenia's ties with Moscow have frayed – especially since 2023, when Russian peacekeepers largely stood aside during Baku's lightning offensive to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Nearly the entire Armenian population fled, and Azerbaijan was accused of ethnic cleansing. Since then Mr Pashinyan has leaned towards the West and sought reconciliation with Baku, believing that Armenia's long-term future is threatened if it maintains hostile relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This is far from popular in Armenia. Mr Pashinyan has one of the lowest approval ratings of any leader in the world and a recent spat with the Armenian Apostolic Church saw two archbishops arrested on charges of plotting against the government. However, Nurlan Aliyev, a senior researcher at the College of Europe, said Mr Pashinyan's geopolitical reshuffling has pushed Baku and Yerevan together regarding their position on Russia. Mr Aliyev said: 'Both countries understand that they need to create a South Caucasus security architecture without Russian participation, one that regional states will support themselves. 'We have not yet seen a final peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but there are positive signs. A final peace agreement would be a major blow to Russia's position in the South Caucasus.' For the president of Azerbaijan, the days of taking orders from Moscow appear to be over. Analysts say he is using the Yekaterinburg incident to not just demand justice, but to assert independence. 'The problem in relations with Baku is serious,' a former high-ranking Russian diplomat told The Telegraph. 'President Aliyev bared his teeth, as any authoritarian leader would. He now sees himself as a triumphant figure. Moscow no longer dictates terms.' Bashir Kitachayev of the Carnegie Centre in Berlin said Baku is taking advantage of the incident to push back against Moscow. 'The deaths of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg served merely as a convenient pretext,' he said. 'They [the Azerbaijani authorities] are using the situation to bolster their position at home and abroad by escalating tensions with Moscow.' The shift was underlined by a publicised call between Mr Aliyev and Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, in which they discussed forming closer ties. It was a pointed signal from Azerbaijan, a country long seen as aligned with Moscow. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is trying to reframe the standoff as a Western plot. 'The scriptwriter and conductor of disagreements with Azerbaijan is located outside the post-Soviet space,' said Grigory Karasin, chairman of Russia's international affairs committee. Vladimir Dzhabarov, a Russian senator and former KGB officer, went further by accusing MI6 and Turkey of stirring unrest. In truth, the cracks began long before Yekaterinburg. Last Christmas, Russia mistakenly shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines jet. Baku refused to move past the incident, ultimately forcing Putin to apologise and offer compensation, in a rare diplomatic climbdown. Now fully aware of the power of public confrontation, Baku did not hesitate to retaliate in the wake of the arrests in Yekaterinburg. The fallout also threatens Russia's prized North-South Corridor – a trade route linking Moscow to Iran and India that runs through Azerbaijan. Losing access to the corridor could deliver a real economic blow, especially as Russia seeks ways to get around Western sanctions. Arkady Dubnov, a post-Soviet affairs expert, wrote on Telegram that Moscow's main concern was preserving that corridor. It knows, he said, that alienating Baku completely could threaten those plans. For now, Russia will continue blaming the West while working behind the scenes to try to salvage its relationships. But for Azerbaijan and Armenia – nations once treated like Soviet satellites – they are setting their own course and increasingly, it does not involve Russia. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
JAMnews
15-07-2025
- Business
- JAMnews
Opinion: "The foreign policy landscape is clearly shifting against the ruling Georgian Dream"
Armenia, Azerbaijan drift from Russia, impact on Georgia Significant changes are taking place in the region that will have a major impact on Georgia's domestic politics, says Tamta Mikeladze, head of the Social Justice Center. Looking at the ongoing developments around Azerbaijan and Armenia, the expert argues that Georgia is going against the current, as the country's leadership is ignoring the shifting foreign policy landscape. On the Baku-Moscow conflict Tamta Mikeladze describes the recent standoff between Azerbaijan and Russia as a 'symbolic' or 'performative' conflict. In her view, Azerbaijan itself initiated the dispute and used it to its advantage both in foreign and domestic politics. One of President Ilham Aliyev's main goals, she argues, was to reduce growing public discontent at home. 'Externally, Aliyev seeks to present himself as an anti-Russian player; internally, he is trying to defuse public frustration, which has become harder to manage since the post-war euphoria faded.' Aliyev knows very well that playing geopolitical games with major powers helps him maintain public support, Mikeladze says. She notes, however, that despite the open confrontation, Azerbaijan has not crossed any red lines in its relationship with Moscow. 'It's notable that Aliyev doesn't push the conflict too far – he's following Erdogan's playbook here. For instance, he avoids cutting economic and political ties with Russia.' Especially now, she adds, as Russia – isolated due to the war in Ukraine – is investing in Azerbaijan's transit infrastructure as part of the North-South corridor (Russia-Iran-India route). At the same time, Russia remains one of Azerbaijan's biggest suppliers of energy and other goods. It is also a major export market for Azerbaijani agricultural products. Nearly 46% of all foreign remittances into Azerbaijan come from Russia, where about 300,000 Azerbaijanis live and work. 'Although Aliyev managed the confrontation in a way that preserved the economic and political partnership with Russia, he still made a point of highlighting Moscow's weakened influence in the region – and did so in a deliberately symbolic way,' Mikeladze concludes. On relations between Yerevan, Ankara, and Baku Tamta Mikeladze recalls specific steps taken by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over the past five years in relations with Turkey, noting that Armenia is making progress in normalizing ties with both Turkey and Azerbaijan – with the development of transport corridors being the key starting point. 'It's no coincidence that after the 2020 [Second Karabakh] war, Armenia began normalizing relations with Turkey. A year after the war, the special envoys of Armenia and Turkey met. In February 2023, following the devastating earthquake in Turkey, Armenia was one of the first to send humanitarian aid. Shortly after, Armenia recognized the State of Palestine — amid rising tensions between Turkey and Israel over Gaza.' According to Mikeladze, beyond foreign policy steps, Pashinyan also initiated an internal public debate about letting go of the myth of 'historic Armenia': 'Pashinyan himself suggested that Mount Ararat should be symbolically replaced by Mount Aragats, which is within the borders of present-day Armenia.' In this context, Turkey is increasingly asserting its role and importance in the region: 'During this period, Turkey managed to neutralize Azerbaijan's attempts to escalate the situation – thus presenting itself to the West as a stabilizing force. It wants to remain a guarantor of regional stability and is also interested in creating a transport corridor through Armenia that would connect Turkey with Central Asia,' Mikeladze says. The European Union also supports this project and has proposed a model in which the corridor would be managed by a reliable international company. 'This is similar to what was once proposed to Georgia, but Tbilisi rejected it. Interestingly, the United States is now taking up the same idea and trying to facilitate negotiations.' Although the process has yet to yield concrete results, the sides acknowledge progress – with the main obstacle being Armenia's constitutional changes, Mikeladze concludes. On Georgian Dream's policy According to the expert, Turkey's role in the region is growing — both in terms of political stabilization and economic development — while the influence of Russia and Iran is declining. The United States and Europe recognize Turkey as a NATO member state and continue to support it in that capacity. Given this context, Tamta Mikeladze argues that the ruling Georgian Dream party is clearly going against the current – a course that, in this case, could be harmful: 'It supports defeated powers – Iran and Russia – and may ultimately suffer serious consequences as a result. This is not to mention the growing anti-Russian moves in US policy and the unprecedented threats of sanctions against Georgian Dream from the UK and other major democracies. In short, the foreign policy landscape is shifting – and not in favor of Georgian Dream or its (geo)political calculations.' News in Georgia
