a day ago
One of the most successful military strikes in history? Sure, Donald
He stood on a podium beneath a banner that read 'Mission Accomplished' and said: 'Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed ... because the regime [the Iraqi dictatorship of Saddam Hussein] is no more.'
Wrong. The Iraqi insurgency developed into an outright sectarian war, with the vast majority of casualties – coalition and Iraqi, military and civilian – AFTER that premature victory declaration. Indeed, British and American troops occupied Iraq for eight more years, before withdrawing completely in 2011.
Here we go again.
READ MORE: Kelly Given: If Zohran Mamdani can do it, left must believe it can make it anywhere
It took years for George Dubya's claim to be fully discredited. Donald Trump's 'mission accomplished' in Iran is falling to pieces within days.
First of all, he's killed Iranians – which never warms any population to a 'liberator' – and he's made life infinitely more difficult for those in Iran who oppose the regime. The state-affiliated Fars News Agency says 700 people have been arrested as 'mercenaries of Israel', and the BBC Persian Service reported three executions yesterday. Commentators fear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) 'will likely get stronger, consolidating even more power'.
Was that the aim? Was there any aim?
Second, the strikes that 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, did not.
Leaked reports from the Pentagon suggest the targeted nuclear bases were not destroyed, a stockpile of enriched uranium was removed beforehand and therefore not destroyed and the centrifuges are 'largely intact'. So, Trump's big bazooka bombing has probably just caused a few months' delay to an Iranian nuclear weapons programme … and has made that progression more likely.
Iran's parliament has just suspended co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog and is drafting legislation to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). That's not good news.
Mark Fitzpatrick, former director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that he expects Tehran to leave the NPT, build a nuclear weapon within a year and create a ripple effect. If Iran pulls out, Saudi Arabia has vowed to match Iran in nuclear weapons and would also consider quitting the NPT. Egypt is also concerned that Israel doesn't face international monitoring (Israel won't admit to having nuclear weapons and hasn't joined the NPT but is widely believed to have 80 warheads). What a result.
Trump, in the Netherlands, stands by his claim that Sunday saw 'one of the most successful military strikes in history'.
READ MORE: MSPs pass legislation to abolish Scotland's exams body
Yet he has postponed classified briefings for Senate and House members till Friday to figure out how to spin all this. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer says the delay is 'outrageous' – especially since many believe Trump's unilateral decision to attack Iran is unauthorised and unconstitutional.
The president won't care about that – but he will care about antagonising his own MAGA support. Trump was elected on a specific pledge not to drag the US into foreign wars and certainly not to use US hardware and personnel as a proxy for Israel. Of course, MAGA trouble hardly counts as a downside, for most of the world's progressives. Nor does the terminal damage to Trump's rumoured hopes of winning a Nobel Peace Prize.
The head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign committee has withdrawn his nomination of Trump for the prize, saying he has 'lost any sort of faith and belief' that the US president could make peace between Russia and Ukraine. The Pakistani government is under pressure to rescind its nomination.
If that gong was ever on the table, it's back in the box now.
Thirdly, while all eyes have been on Iran, the situation in Gaza has worsened and casual, daily killing by IDF forces around food aid centres has become normalised. Almost.
I'm not sure how many people knew of Palestine Action before Yvette Cooper decided to turn them into a terrorist organisation on Monday coming, with a potential 14-year prison sentence for anyone turning out to support them.
But we've certainly heard of them now. If there's a protest I can get to, I'll be there. And I suspect I won't be alone.
Every time the Prime Minister raises the bar to weaken the resolve of those who have supported the Palestinian cause their entire lives, he further damages a party whose democratic credentials are almost non-existent.
Indeed, for Labour, next week is shaping up to be a hebdomadis horribilis (horrible week).
There's the Welfare Bill and the spectacle of Labour's own backbenchers ganging up to defeat a Liz Kendall bill that will cut disability benefits. With more than 130 signatories so far, the only way Labour can escape defeat is via the poisoned chalice of Kemi Badenoch's Tories.
READ MORE: 100 charities challenge Ian Murray and Scottish Labour to oppose UK welfare cuts
It's a horrible look either way. And presents a horrible fiscal challenge.
The Welfare Bill was meant to save £5 billion a year – though actual savings will be minimal if disabled people denied support simply turn up more at A&E.
Still, defeat will give Rachel Reeves an immediate £5bn black hole in her own calculations to add to the £43bn black hole created this week by Starmer's Nato commitments. Rishi, with your relatively tiny £20bn black hole – eat your heart out.
And apart from the fiscal turmoil, there's the look.
Labour will precede their Welfare Bill misery on Tuesday with the certainty of ugly scenes on Monday as Palestine Action protesters are arrested and hauled off to jail. That's what happens when you are on the wrong side of history.
But coming back to Trump, his gung-ho approach creates another risk – sympathy for the Iranian regime as the plucky little underdogs.
This would be a travesty because Iran's is a truly horrible regime.
There were protests across the country in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini – a young woman who died in police custody, after failing to wear a headscarf. The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group say 537 protesters were killed by state security forces who blamed the deaths on foreign agitators. Now, the rallying cry used during those protests – 'woman, life, freedom' – has been cynically repeated by Benjamin Netanyahu. On Friday, he urged Iranians to 'stand up and let your voices be heard'.
As one campaigner observed: 'Netanyahu is hiding behind Iranian nationalist slogans and pretending to help Iranians reach freedom while actually targeting residential areas. It's going to take years to rebuild the country. I've seen what Netanyahu did to Gaza – do you really think he cares about Iranians? This isn't about us, it's about [Israeli] politics.'
People aren't stupid. The big boy bluster and double standards over Israel in the US and UK are nauseating.
So, well done, Donald.
