Latest news with #BanjotKaur
The Wire
6 days ago
- Health
- The Wire
‘Surge' in COVID-19 Cases in India: What We Know and Don't Know About Newer Strains
Menu हिंदी తెలుగు اردو Home Politics Economy World Security Law Science Society Culture Editor's Pick Opinion Support independent journalism. Donate Now Top Stories 'Surge' in COVID-19 Cases in India: What We Know and Don't Know About Newer Strains Banjot Kaur 42 minutes ago Current data is inadequate to draw a complete picture. Hyperbolic news coverage also hides key scientific details of the situation. A medic at a ward prepared for COVID-19 patients at Gandhi Hospital in the wake of several states reporting Covid cases, in Hyderabad, Saturday, May 24, 2025. Photo: PTI. Real journalism holds power accountable Since 2015, The Wire has done just that. But we can continue only with your support. Contribute now New Delhi: The 'surge' in COVID-19 cases has been making headlines in India for about a week now. What should one make of the term 'surge'? Is the rise in the number of cases cause for alarm? The prevailing notion that 'COVID-19 is back' does not pass scientific muster because like any other virus, Sars-Cov-2 (causing COVID-19), never went away. Like all other viruses, it has been circulating all this time and will continue to do so. No virus has been eliminated in human history except smallpox. The periodic rise in cases is also likely to happen because Sars-Cov-2 is a fast-mutating virus. These are the 'surges' that are leading to a misinformed claim that 'COVID-19 is back'. Current 'surge' According to the data made available by the Union health ministry's online dashboard, there are 1,010 active cases in India as of May 25. The highest number of active cases are in Kerala (430) followed by Maharashtra (210), Delhi (104) and Gujarat (76). One of the metrics to understand the numbers is to look at the baseline which reflect the weekly change in the number of cases. Compared with week starting May 19, the highest change in the number of cases has been in Kerala (95 cases more cases this week) and Maharashtra (56 more cases this week), In such a situation, governments can make additional preparations and ask hospitals to remain at stand by as a standard protocol. Why this data is not the real picture The official data has several riders which are often missed in the current discourse and in panicked messages widely circulated on various social media platforms. The most important among them is the positivity rate, i.e, number of tests returning positive out of every 100 tests conducted. This is important to rule out any testing bias. Usually, when talk around COVID-19 cases going up gains momentum, a higher number of people get tested for the virus. The higher the number of people being tested, the greater are our chances of detecting more cases. This is the case because in the absence of such talk, fewer people get tested, and therefore, the number of people being tested positive is also small. Therefore, it is pertinent to know the positivity rate. The health ministry website has no updated information on the positivity rate of the current strains. The fact that Kerala has the highest number of positive cases can, therefore, also be a function of more tests being conducted there. Virus surveillance The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) is responsible for conducting genomic surveillance and finding out the current status of the strains circulating. Some of the tests that return positive are further analysed to understand the most commonly circulating strain. According to the INSACOG dashboard updated till May 26, JN.1 is the most common circulating strain. Some cases of a new strain NB.1.8.1 have also been reported but are not reflected in the dashboard. However, the number of sequences uploaded on the INSACOG dashboard has been extremely low, starting this year, thus seriously limiting the Indian genome sequencing capacity and its surveillance efforts. It is through genome sequencing alone that one can understand the scale of the dominant strain at a given point in time. In fact, only five centres out of 64 have uploaded the results of sequencing that started in January this year. Two medical colleges of Rajasthan and Gujarat, each, and the country's apex body, the National Institute of Virology, have done so. Therefore, less-than-adequate genome sequencing can also present a picture which is incomplete. Even the last INSACOG bulletin, issued on May 15, acknowledges this. 'Since the testing and the sampling frequency is less for some parts of India, the overall scenario might not be clear yet,' it says. Many countries do wastewater surveillance also to study the true prevalence of any strain as it reveals viral load or fragments of virus in sewage. In India, only a few entities do this in their own capacities. There is no centralised data available on this as the Union government has not taken up wastewater surveillance, even at the start and peak of the pandemic. WHO's classification of JN.1 and NB.1.8.1 The World Health Organisation (WHO) classifies new emerging strains under one of the three categories – variants under monitoring (VUM), variants of Interest (VoIs) and variants of Concern (VoCs). The least alarming are the ones classified as VuMs. If a strain is designated as VuM, it is a 'signal to health authorities that a new strain may require prioritised attention' over others. If a strain is classified as VoI, it indicates that it has the ability to spread faster than the previous cousins, cause a slightly more severe disease and 'suggests a potential emerging risk to global public health'. The strains classified as VoCs signal the highest degree of change. Such a strain may potentially overwhelm health systems across the world. A VoC can cause 'detrimental' change in disease severity, and cause significant immune evasion, that is, the circulating strain is successful in evading the immune system. Currently, the WHO has classified JN.1 as VoI. NB.1.8.1 has been characterised as VuM. All currently circulating strains are offshoots of the Omicron variant. Properties of NB.1.8.1 and JN.1 NB.1.8.1 has a greater ability than its previous cousins to bind to ACE2 receptors. The ACE2 receptors are present in cells of various body parts and they act as entry points for the COVID-19 virus into the body. The COVID-19 virus has what are known as 'spike proteins', or simply, spikes present on its outer surface. These spikes of the virus 'bind' with ACE2 receptors like lock and key to invade the body. Thus, the fact that NB.1.8.1 has a greater ability to bind with ACE2 receptors of the body indicates that it can easily gain entry into the body. This can increase the transmission potential of the virus – it can thus spread faster from one person to another. According to the latest WHO update, limited available evidence from different parts of the world indicates that this strain has led to an increase in hospitalisation numbers. However, these are early days for full evaluation of the NB.1.8.1. This is the case because the COVID-19 sequences global database, GISAID, has only 518 samples of this strain provided by 22 countries. This number is not enough to study its clinical outcomes in detail. 'The routine clinical surveillance data do not indicate any signs of increased severity associated with NB.1.8.1, compared to previously circulating strains,' says the WHO in its latest update. 'Currently there is no evidence of increases in indicators like COVID-19-related ICU admissions and deaths per hospitalisations, or all-cause mortality,' it adds. As far as JN.1 is concerned, which is currently the dominant strain in India, it has a growth advantage over previously circulating strains, as per the WHO. In other words, it can spread faster than other Omicron strains. However, the neutralisation capacity of the antibodies present in the immune system, i.e., their ability to neutralise or kill the virus is same for JN.1 as it is for other strains of the Omicron variant which had been circulating earlier. The WHO says the currently available evidence suggests that the additional health risk posed by JN.1 is low at the global level. The increase in hospitalisation numbers with JN.1 is unclear at the moment. There have been no reports of changes in disease severity with JN.1 as compared to other versions of the Omicron variant. According to this paper, JN.1 can cause fever, sore throat, excessive discharge of mucus from nose, nasal congestion, persistent dry cough, fatigue, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, muscle pain, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, and vomiting. 'Patients infected with the JN.1 strain may experience more severe muscle fatigue and exhaustion compared to typical COVID-19 cases,' it says. 'Mild symptoms can often be managed with symptomatic care and do not require immediate medical attention,' it adds. Patients who are immunocompromised – those whose immune systems are already compromised – due to certain illnesses are always at risk of developing a severe disease than others, be it any strain of the virus. Another risk associated with any variant of Sars-Cov-2 infection is Long COVID. While all the currently circulating strains are mostly known to cause a mild version of the disease, the risk of Long COVID is real and pertinent. WHO's technical lead on COVID-19, Maria Van Kerkhove, says, there is no substantial clarity as to how COVID-19 infections can impact our body in multiple ways even if one has got rid of the infection. 'Our concern is [that] in five years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now, what we are going to see in terms of cardiac impairment, of pulmonary impairment, of neurological impairment [caused due to long term impacts of new strains of the virus which would continue to emerge],' she says referring to Long COVID. § Although the fear of the 'unknowns' of this virus has subsided to a greater extent, not everything is known about the virus yet, as Kerkhove says. The best and the easiest way is, therefore, to take precautions which are not hard to follow. Vulnerable populations like elderly, people with comorbidities and compromised immune systems, especially need to take care. Insofar as the general population, following these precautions, like masking up in crowded places, can alway come handy to dodge the virus and its long term implications. Make a contribution to Independent Journalism Related News The Small Peak in COVID-19 Cases in South East Asia Is No Cause For Panic COVID-19 Led to Decline in Life Expectancy in India, Reveal Three Analyses The Many Failures of Operation Sindoor We Must Assess Sudden Deaths Which Took Place as a Consequence of COVID-19 Undercounting of COVID Deaths: Two Million More People Died in 2021 Compared to 2020, Shows Govt Data ECI Tried to Address the Duplicate EPIC Problem 4 Years Ago. Why Does it Persist? Free Speech on Eggshells: What the Ali Khan Mahmudabad Case Signals for All of Us Global Leaders Have Much to Learn From Singapore PM Lawrence Wong's Speech on US Tariffs Former Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa Says EC Must Explain 'Abnormal Surge' in Electors: Report About Us Contact Us Support Us © Copyright. All Rights Reserved.
The Wire
6 days ago
- Health
- The Wire
COVID-19 Led to Decline in Life Expectancy in India, Reveal Three Analyses
Menu हिंदी తెలుగు اردو Home Politics Economy World Security Law Science Society Culture Editor's Pick Opinion Support independent journalism. Donate Now Top Stories COVID-19 Led to Decline in Life Expectancy in India, Reveal Three Analyses Banjot Kaur 17 minutes ago Since the 1970s, life expectancy in India had continued to increase by a couple of years to a few decimal years on a year-on-year basis. Medics prepare a ward for COVID-19 patients at Gandhi Hospital. Photo: PTI Real journalism holds power accountable Since 2015, The Wire has done just that. But we can continue only with your support. Contribute now New Delhi: The year-on-year trend of increasing life expectancy in India, observed for the last few decades, declined for the first time in 2021, albeit marginally. From 2016-20, the life expectancy in India was 70 years. From 2017-21, the recorded life expectancy dropped to 69.8 years, according to SRS abridged life tables. Since the 1970s, the life expectancy had continued to increase by a couple of years to a few decimal years on a year-on-year basis. For example, the life expectancy 69 years between 2013-17, 69.4 years (2014-2018), 69.7 years (2015-19) and 70 years (2016-20) as per SRS abridged tables. Between 2017-21, this trend changed and life expectancy dropped to 69.8 years from 70 years in 2016-20, a difference of 0.2 years. According to a World Health Organisation (WHO) update, life expectancy in India was 70.7 years in 2019, 70.2 in 2020 and 67.3 in 2021, clearly revealing the impact of the pandemic. The life expectancy recorded in 2010 was 67.5 years, according to the WHO, in India. Thus, COVID-19 brought the life expectancy down to what it was 15 years ago. The preliminary results of another recent study, which is yet to be published, conducted by researchers at International Institute for Population Sciences pointed out that life expectancy in 2021 declined by 1.6 years in the deadly second wave of COVID-19 in India. The study, as reported in Times of India, found that Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana witnessed the sharpest decline, where life expectancy dropped by 3 years. This preliminary analysis came in the backdrop of the Union government releasing Samples Registration System and Civil Registration System data for 2021 which revealed that the official death count of COVID-19 in India was seven times lesser than the estimated deaths. Also read: Covid Excess Death Study Revives Debate on Government's No-Undercounting Claim This decline in life expectancy was in line with the global trends as far the COVID-19 years are concerned. In fact, according to the WHO, Covid-19 eliminated a decade of progress in life expectancy around the world. 'Between 2019 and 2021, global life expectancy dropped by 1.8 years to 71.4 years (back to the level of 2012),' the WHO said. 'The 2024 report also highlights how the effects have been felt unequally across the world. The WHO regions for the Americas and South-East Asia were hit hardest, with life expectancy dropping by approximately 3 years and healthy life expectancy by 2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,' the WHO added. Life expectancy decline in line with other health indicators The decline in life expectancy in India in 2021 is also in line with the decline in other major health indicators of the country. For example, COVID-19 reversed decades of progress India had made in TB elimination. The notification of TB cases – or the number of TB cases that went undiagnosed – increased across the world in 2020 and India was hit the hardest. Similarly, the childhood immunisation rates dropped sharply, pushing India several years back. The number of children missing key vaccines in India lead to significant drop in overall immunisation coverage. The coverage of some of the vaccines in 2020 reached 2010 levels. In subsequent years, the rates improved as the impact of COVID-19 faded and the routine healthcare services resumed. Another case in point is the malaria elimination programme. Malaria cases and deaths rose greatly in 2020. In Southeast Asia, which accounted for 2% of the global cases, India accounted for 83% of them alone. Leading causes of deaths in 2021 The leading cause of deaths in India in 2021 was COVID-19 according to the WHO. It caused 221 deaths per 100,00 population. COVID-19 was followed by Ischemic heart diseases, which caused 110.8 deaths per 100,000 population. The impact of COVID-19 on death figures is evident in the fact that it caused more than twice as many deaths as the second leading cause. The third leading cause was Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary disease, which caused 70.5 deaths per 100,000 population. Other causes included strokes (53.5 deaths per 100,000 population), diarrheal diseases (34.3 deaths per 100,000 population), lower respiratory infections (27.8 deaths per 100,000 population), tuberculosis (25.4 deaths per 100,000 population), diabetes mellitus (23.1 deaths per 100,000 population), liver cirrhosis (18.9 deaths per 100,000 population)) and falls (16.5 deaths per 100,000 population). It must be noted that due to the shutdown of major services, it is likely that many deaths due to reasons other than COVID-19 could have gone unrecorded. Make a contribution to Independent Journalism Related News India's Net Foreign Direct Investment Plummets by 96.5% to Reach Record Low The Small Peak in COVID-19 Cases in South East Asia Is No Cause For Panic We Must Assess Sudden Deaths Which Took Place as a Consequence of COVID-19 The Many Failures of Operation Sindoor Undercounting of COVID Deaths: Two Million More People Died in 2021 Compared to 2020, Shows Govt Data SIPs, Usually Popular, See Decline in New Registrations India in Bottom 10-20% Bracket on Academic Freedom Index, Ranks 156th Globally Trump, Tariffs and a 200-Year Old Warning About the Tyranny of the Majority India's Outreach to Kabul Amid Simmering 'Pashtunistan' Demand Could Give It Leverage Over Pakistan View in Desktop Mode About Us Contact Us Support Us © Copyright. All Rights Reserved.
The Wire
09-05-2025
- Politics
- The Wire
Undercounting of COVID Deaths: Two Million More People Died in 2021 Compared to 2020, Shows Govt Data
Menu हिंदी తెలుగు اردو Home Politics Economy World Security Law Science Society Culture Editor's Pick Opinion Support independent journalism. Donate Now Top Stories Undercounting of COVID Deaths: Two Million More People Died in 2021 Compared to 2020, Shows Govt Data Banjot Kaur 4 hours ago From 2016 to 2020, the year-on-year rise in the number of registered deaths remained between 2-10%. This increased by 26% in 2021. Real journalism holds power accountable Since 2015, The Wire has done just that. But we can continue only with your support. Donate now Photo: PTI/Files. New Delhi: Four years after the deadly delta wave of COVID-19, the government has released a slew of reports that question the official numbers of deaths that it had put out earlier. These reports, which were withheld for a long time, show that not only did the wave wreak havoc but years of progress on reducing the death rate of the country got reversed in 2021. One of the key reports, which the government has released is the Civil Registration System (CRS) 2021 report. The CRS gives the numbers for deaths that are actually registered. Not all deaths are registered officially. The CRS presents deaths caused due to all the causes in a given year or what is known as All Cause Mortality (ACM) data The number of total deaths registered in 2021 were 10.2 million. This was also about 2 million more than 2020 – an increase of nearly 26%. From 2016 to 2020, the year-on-year rise in the number of registered deaths remained between 2-10% – as against the 26% increase from 2020 to 2021. But what could explain the sharp rise from 2020 to 2021, when such an increase was not seen in the previous years? No significant event happened in 2021 other than the deadly delta wave of COVID-19. And, therefore, does it explain undercounting of Covid-19 deaths by a big margin? COVID-19 deaths that were actually registered The fact that the Indian government had undercounted pandemic-related deaths was widely published by statisticians and academics. But the Indian government refuted all publications and maintained that the government's systems were robust enough not to miss any deaths. Now let us look at another crucial report the government has released: 'Medically Certified Cause of Deaths-2021' report. It must be noted here that out of all deaths registered in India, only a small proportion of them are 'medically certified for a particular cause'. The 2021 MCCD report says only 23.4% of all deaths, which were registered, could be medically certified or put under a particular cause-related category. This proportion remains low for a variety of reasons, like healthcare institutions not being adequately equipped to certify the cause of death or deaths that occurred outside such institutions. Before 2020, India had 19 categories for causes of deaths. Five most prominent were cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, infectious parasites diseases, endocrine and metabolic diseases, and injury and other external causes. In 2020, another category was added for COVID-19. It was termed 'Deaths due to special purposes (COVID-19)'. The MCCD reports say nearly 160,000 and 410,000 died due to COVID-19 in India in 2020 and 2021, respectively – thus totalling to 570,000 deaths. However, there is an important rider here. The MCCD report itself accepts that overall, only 23.4% of registered deaths are medically certified for cause of deaths under one of its 20 categories. In other words, the cause/category of all deaths are not known. Therefore, it is safe to assume that only a small fraction of COVID-19 deaths have been categorised as the deaths caused by the pandemic. Now, according to the government, 470,000 died in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19, as per the data released back then. And, the MCCD data itself admits that 570,000 died due to COVID-19. In other words, the official estimates that the government had put out are nearly equal to what the MCCD report – which registers only a fraction of deaths as certified or categorised. This clearly reveals that only a small proportion of COVID-19 deaths got classified and recorded in the system and a large number of them could not be properly attributed. However, there is another important trend that the MCCD 2021 data reveals. One of the categories in an MCCD report is deaths caused due to respiratory infections. From 2017 to 2019, the increase in deaths caused due to respiratory illness ranged between 5 to 11%, when computed on a year-on-year basis. For example, the percentage increase in respiratory infection deaths between 2017 and 2018 was by 5.6%. Similarly between 2018 and 2019 it was about 11% But the graph rises steeply between 2020 and 2021. The number of deaths caused due to respiratory infection in 2020 and 2021 was 180,000 and 300,000 respectively. Thus, the year-on-year rise was around 68% between 2020 and 2021. COVID-19 was mainly a respiratory disease and there are many symptoms that it shared with other respiratory infections. Such a sharp rise in deaths due respiratory infections between the two years of pandemic remains unexplained. It raises doubts whether some of the COVID-19 deaths were classified under 'respiratory diseases' category, instead of COVID-19. Estimated deaths The third important dataset the government has released is the Sample Registration Bulletin (SRS). The SRS provides estimates of death rates, as against the actual number of deaths which get registered in the official records which are reported in CRS. The SRS indicators are arrived at by a survey conducted by government officials. The bulletin reveals India registered the highest death rate (number of deaths per 1000 population) in 2021 since 2012. The death rate in 2021 stood at 7.5. It was the same in 2012 and had been consistently declining since then, till 2021, except for a marginal increase in 2020. The death rate in 2020 was 6 per 1,000 thousand people. In 2021, it climbed to 7.5 per 1,000. This may seem like a small change, but in absolute numbers, it is a significant increase. The last census in the country was held in 2011. Therefore, to make calculations about the absolute number of deaths in 2021, the projected population for 2020 and 2021, which has been provided by the National Commission for Population, has been used. The calculations reveal as many as 8.11 million people died in India in 2020. This figure rose to 10.43 million in 2021 – a 27% rise. In other words, nearly 2 million (20 lakh) more people died in 2021 as compared to 2020. Contrast this with the fact that between 2017-2019, the number of deaths had declined on a year-on-year basis. From 2019 to 2020 (the year in which the first wave of COVID-19), the deaths increased by 1.63%. To put things in perspective, these estimated deaths, as reflected in SRS bulletin, were due to all causes and not just COVID-19 From 2016 to 2020, the year-on-year rise in the number of registered deaths remained between 2-10% . This increased by 26% in 2021. But, again, what could explain the sharp rise from 2020 to 2021, when such an increase was not seen in the previous five years? No other significant event happened in 2021 other than the deadly delta wave of COVID-19. It is also interesting to note here that though the death registration rate, which is captured for all age groups, went up, the infant mortality rate registered a decline. In other words, while adults' death rate increased, that of infants declined. This trend was not visible in previous years. It is widely understood that COVID-19 caused a higher mortality among adults as compared to children. The SRS 2021 trend is in line with this assertion. Make a contribution to Independent Journalism Related News How Contract Labour and Caste Inequality Undermine India's Sanitation Drive Global Leaders Have Much to Learn From Singapore PM Lawrence Wong's Speech on US Tariffs The False War in Bastar A Tale of Two Pandemics: Why COVID Failed Where HIV Succeeded 'No Violence in Manipur Since November,' Says Amit Shah, But There Were 21 Deaths in Clashes Since Then Countdown to Surrender: How World War II Ended in Europe Union Bank of India Under Scrutiny for Spending Rs 7.25 Crore Buying K.V. Subramanian's Book In Response to RTI Query, Govt Fails to Share Qualification of Panel Chairman Close to RSS: Report Pahalgam Attack and the Impact of Populism on National Security View in Desktop Mode About Us Contact Us Support Us © Copyright. All Rights Reserved.
