Latest news with #BankofAmericaGlobalResearch
Mint
2 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
US in stagflationary shock, India remains outlier, says BofA's Claudio Irigoyen
Mumbai: As the US economy goes through a stagflationary shock owing to higher tariffs, India and other countries will remain outliers, according to Claudio Irigoyen, managing director and head of global economics research at Bank of America Global Research. While Irigoyen expects the US Federal Reserve to refrain from cutting rates as it tackles lower growth and higher inflation, he says other central banks are likely to cut rates as they face lower growth and lower inflation. The market was earlier expecting five rate cuts from the US Fed this year, but has lowered its expectation to two. Also read: 'Why did you invite Modi for G7 Summit?': Canadian PM Carney replies, 'India should be…' 'We call it a slowdown but not a recession (for US). So those are the two biggest out-of-consensus calls we've had," said Irigoyen. 'The Fed will not cut, and the US economy will slow down but will not enter into a recession." Irigoyen's team has lowered the global growth estimate to 2.8% for 2025 from 3.1% earlier. BofA expect India's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.3% and Europe's 0.9%. According to Irigoyen, Indian's central bank will pause after delivering a surprise 50-basis-point rate cut and a 100-basis-point reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) last week. 'We have been calling for RBI to cut rates by 100bps for some time, and with that rate trajectory achieved, we believe RBI can now wait and see the transmission, especially since they have changed their policy stance to neutral," he said. 'Naturally, given RBI's pro-growth stance, the risk will be for RBI to ease rates further, but given their current growth projections, we believe RBI will be patient and wait to see if GDP growth deteriorates from here to gauge whether more easing is needed or not." While Irigoyen remains sanguine about India's growth story, he believes that it will need to build more infrastructure to attract supply chains. Also read: Russian intelligence document calls China 'the enemy', leak exposes Moscow's deep fear 'India could be a relatively good story because it's relatively neutral from a geopolitical standpoint, or trying to be, and could be a point of attraction of FDI and relocation of supply chains, but this is going to take some time," he said. 'India needs to do the shore-up in terms of building more infrastructure to attract supply chains." BofA also expects the dollar to continue weakening, albeit not sharply. 'We do not see any short-term risk for the dollar to lose its reserve currency status," Irigoyen said. Irigoyen, however, expects global portfolios to continue rebalancing away from US assets into Europe and emerging markets, unwinding the overweight exposure to US assets into more neutral portfolios. 'As the geopolitical landscape around the world is changing, some countries are less inclined from a geopolitical perspective to buy US treasuries," he said. 'Central banks are moving away from US treasuries to gold. So while there is less demand, there is higher supply of treasuries because of the deficit." Also read: Will America's unbalanced trade doom the dollar? Irigoyen also said that all eyes are currently on the tax bill that is expected to be passed by the US Congress on 4 July. The legislation is expected to cut taxes by $3.7 trillion, while also increasing deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's Newest Stock-Split Stock Has Arrived -- and Its Shares Have Rocketed Higher by 214,200% Since Its IPO
Investors are gravitating to brand-name businesses conducting stock splits. Three prominent companies -- none of which is in the tech sector -- have announced historic stock splits in 2025. On May 22, the first of these game-changing stocks will begin trading at its split-adjusted price. 10 stocks we like better than Fastenal › For more than two years, artificial intelligence (AI) is the trend that's captivated the attention of Wall Street and everyday investors. The potential for AI to add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, based on estimates from PwC, has been too tempting for investors to ignore. But artificial intelligence isn't the only trend responsible for pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite to numerous record-closing highs. Excitement surrounding stock splits has also played an essential role in lifting the tide on Wall Street. A stock split is a tool publicly traded companies can lean on to superficially alter their share price and outstanding share count by the same magnitude. The "superficial" aspect of stock splits pertains to them not having any impact on a company's market cap or its operating performance. Splits come in two varieties -- forward and reverse -- with the former overwhelmingly favored to the latter. Reverse splits, which are designed to increase a company's share price while simultaneously lowering its share count, are typically undertaken by struggling companies attempting to stave off delisting from a major stock exchange. In comparison, forward stock splits are almost always completed by businesses that are out-innovating and out-executing their competition. If a company has to reduce its share price to make it more nominally affordable for investors who lack access to fractional-share purchases through their broker, it must be doing something right. Forward splits are especially popular given the historic outperformance of the companies enacting them. Based on data from Bank of America Global Research, companies have averaged a 25.4% return in the 12 months following their forward split announcement since 1980. This more than doubles up the average return of the S&P 500 over the same 12-month timelines. In 2024, more than a dozen prominent businesses completed stock splits, only one of which was of the reverse variety. This includes AI juggernauts Nvidia and Broadcom, retail giant Walmart, and restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill. Today, May 22, Wall Street's newest stock-split stock will take its place among the ranks. Admittedly, stock-split euphoria has gotten off to a bit of a slow start in 2025 when compared to last year. But whereas 2024 prominently featured tech stocks taking the plunge, this year has featured non-tech highfliers announcing or completing forward splits. The first brand-name business to announce a historic split in 2025 -- albeit not the company that's entering the stock-split ranks today -- is auto parts supplier O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY). In mid-March, O'Reilly's board announced plans to conduct a 15-for-1 forward split, which is its largest ever, after the close of trading on June 9. This split will help lower O'Reilly's share price from almost $1,382 to close to $92 per share. O'Reilly Automotive is a company that's directly benefiting from the aging of vehicles on American roadways. A May 2024 report from S&P Global Mobility found the average age of cars and light trucks in the U.S. hit an all-time high of 12.6 years, which is up from 11.1 years in 2012. The longer drivers hold onto their vehicles, the more likely it is that O'Reilly will benefit from parts and accessory sales to mechanics and consumers. O'Reilly Automotive also has one of the most impressive share-repurchase programs on Wall Street. Since introducing its buyback program in 2011, almost $26 billion has been spent to repurchase more than 59% of the company's outstanding shares. Buyback programs of this scale can have a notably positive impact on earnings per share. The next prominent stock that made history by announcing a forward split is automated electronic brokerage firm Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ: IBKR). The 4-for-1 split announced on April 15, which will go into effect after trading wraps up on June 17, is the first forward split in the company's history. Interactive Brokers has thrived for years thanks to optimistic investor sentiment and lengthy bull markets. When Wall Street's major stock indexes are moving higher, it's normal for investors to put more money to work and to trade more often. Additionally, Interactive Brokers has enjoyed growth in virtually all of its key performance metrics over the last two years. Since emerging from the 2022 bear market, the number of accounts on Interactive Brokers, customer equity on the platform, margin loans outstanding, and daily average revenue trades -- total customer orders divided by the number of trading days in a period -- have all moved higher. But interestingly enough, the most recent brand-name company to announce its intent to split is the first to actually make it happen. For the ninth time in the last 37 years, wholesale industrial and construction supplies distributor Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST) is completing a split. The company's 2-for-1 split, which was announced on April 23, became official after the close of trading on May 21, with shares opening at their split-adjusted price today, May 22. Since Fastenal's initial public offering (IPO) in August 1987, its stock has risen by 130,700% without dividend payments and 214,200% including dividends. Splitting its stock every few years has become part of the corporate culture and is indicative of a company that's firing on all cylinders. One of the key catalysts behind Fastenal's outperformance is its inextricable ties to the health of the U.S. and global economy. Even though recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, the average U.S. downturn since the end of World War II has lasted only 10 months. In comparison, the typical economic expansion has endured for about five years over the last eight decades. Demand for Fastenal's products should grow in lockstep with the U.S. and global economy. Furthermore, about 73% of Fastenal's first-quarter sales came from its contract segment. "Contracts," per the company, include "national multi-site, local and regional, and government customers with significant revenue potential." In simpler terms, Fastenal's contract sales are tied to customers it has long-standing relationships with. These close-knit ties have helped push sales higher even amid plenty of macroeconomic uncertainty. Fastenal's jaw-dropping 214,200% total return since its IPO is also a reflection of the company becoming more integrated in its customers supply chains. Fastenal's managed-inventory solutions, which include internet-connected vending devices (FASTVend) and bin stock-location monitoring (FASTBin), are used to learn about clients' purchasing habits and replenishing needs. Fastenal can help improve cost efficiencies for its customers while making itself irreplaceable to cyclically driven industrial companies. At nearly 35 times forward-year earnings, Fastenal is certainly priced as a company that'll continue to outpace its peers in the growth column. While it wouldn't be a surprise to see its stock take a breather after effectively doubling since October 2022, I wouldn't bet against future gains three or more years down the line. Before you buy stock in Fastenal, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Fastenal wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $642,582!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $829,879!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 975% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Sean Williams has positions in Bank of America. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bank of America, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Interactive Brokers Group, Nvidia, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2027 $175 calls on Interactive Brokers Group, short January 2027 $185 calls on Interactive Brokers Group, and short June 2025 $55 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Wall Street's Newest Stock-Split Stock Has Arrived -- and Its Shares Have Rocketed Higher by 214,200% Since Its IPO was originally published by The Motley Fool
CNBC
06-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Trump's trade tariffs take U.S. imports, exports to near Covid-level event: 'Haven't seen anything like this since 2020'
An empty container ship of COSCO Shipping sails to a container terminal in Qingdao in east China's Shandong province Wednesday, April 16, 2025. What began as a rapid drop in U.S. imports as shippers cut orders from manufacturing partners around the world has now extended into a nationwide export slump, with the U.S. agricultural sector and top farm products including soybeans, corn, and beef taking the hardest hit. Latest trade data shows that a slide in U.S. exports to the world, and China in particular, that began in January now extends to nearly every U.S. port, according to trade tracker Vizion, which analyzed U.S. export container bookings for the five-week period before the tariffs began and the five weeks after the tariffs took effect. The farming sector has been warning of a "crisis" and ports data is showing more evidence of lack of ability to move product out to global markets. Port of Oregon tops the list with a 51% decrease in exports, while Port of Tacoma, a large agricultural export port, has seen a 28% decrease. The port's top destinations for the corn, soybeans, and other ag exports include Japan, China, and South Korea. Some ports have only seen a small exports decrease to date, such as the Port of Houston and Port of Seattle, at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. But what is clear, according to Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at Vizion, "is that nearly all of U.S. exports have taken a hit." The trade data shows declines of over 17% at the Port of Los Angeles, while the Port of Savannah — the top U.S. port for exporting containerized agricultural goods in 2025 — is down 13%, and the Port of Norfolk is down 12%, according to Vizion. The Port of Oakland also plays a significant role in exports as the leading port for international refrigerated goods. U.S. agricultural exports also leave Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Houston, and Seattle/ Tacoma. The slide in exports is linked to the decline in containerships coming to the U.S., as businesses across the economy cancel manufacturing orders, sending Chinese factories and freight ships into retreat. U.S. imports continue to decline, with port data tracked by Vizion showing a 43% week-over-week drop in containers from the week of April 21 to the week of April 28. "We haven't seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020," said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. "That means goods expected to arrive in the next 6 to 8 weeks simply won't. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions," he said. 'Lean' retail inventories ahead Retailers have been urging consumers to buy sooner rather than later, and data from Bank of America Global Research suggests why that may be the right move. Its latest forecast shows that the number of inbound container ships to the Port of Los Angeles will see a sharp drop in May, with escalating trade disruptions between 15%-20% of U.S. container imports from Asia in the coming weeks. In a note to clients, Bank of America warned that the ratio of retail inventories to monthly sales was not especially high, while at the same time, consumers have been buying ahead with fears stoked by the trade war and expectations of higher prices and lack of product choice. Based on data Bank of America reviewed on retail payments to transportation and shipping companies, there has been no big ramp in inventories after the frontloading that occurred earlier this year, and supply disruptions may be looming. "We think it is possible retail inventories may actually look 'lean' in coming months," the Bank of America report stated. Many retailers only have one to two months of sales in inventory, it found, and any unforeseen demand or supply disruptions can quickly impact what goods retailers can offer and the prices charged, it concluded. It is a pivotal time of the year for the holiday shopping season, when orders are typically being placed. The supply chain's tipping point — where holiday success is either locked in or left to chance — is June. "Retailers that lock capacity now, especially in fast‑moving sectors like toys, consumer electronics, and fashion, give themselves the runway to fine‑tune assortments later without racing the clock," said Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding. "It isn't about pushing extra volume; it's about sequencing the flow — balancing ocean, air and intermodal options, building buffers for labor or weather‑related surprises, and using real‑time data to pivot if demand shifts," he said. "The brands that treat June as a strategic deadline, rather than a last‑minute scramble, will be the ones filling shelves, not chasing them when consumers start shopping in November," he added. Captain Kipling Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, warned in a recent statement that the decrease in vessel arrivals and lighter container volumes coming to the U.S. will translated into excess capacity of labor, trucks, trains, and others in supply chain who "will be out of work because of the decline in cargo arrivals." Only 14 ships arrived in the past three days, Louttit noted, and only 10 are scheduled to arrive over the next 3 days. A "normal" level of activity in a three-day period would be 17 ships. Hawaii-based liner operator and shipowner Matson lowered its 2025 outlook on Monday, citing tariffs, global trade regulatory measures, the trajectory of the U.S. economy and other geopolitical issues. Matson, which offers an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, reported that since the tariffs were implemented in April, container volume for the company has declined approximately 30% year over year. "Coupled with limited visibility to our container demand, we expect container volume and average rates in the second quarter to be lower year over year," said Matt Cox, Matson CEO, on its earnings call. "At the moment, it's difficult to know if these lower volume levels are transitory or will persist for a longer time in 2025 and the duration of this lower demand period will likely depend on active negotiations taking place across the supply chain, and the timing of potential amendments to the tariffs," he said. Cox said the company is working with Asia transshipment partners as its customers look at options to diversify and grow their manufacturing locations. "Many of our customers moved to a 'China plus one' strategy a few years ago to diversify their operations, and we expect this trend to continue," he said. "We will continue to follow our customers as they reposition and expand their manufacturing footprint in response to changing tariffs as part of our 'catchment basin' strategy in Asia," Cox added.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
1 Supercharged Stock-Split Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist in May and 1 to Avoid
Investors have flocked to stock-split stocks -- especially those conducting forward splits. The market's most-attractive stock-split stock for May has spent close to $26 billion to repurchase more than 59% of its outstanding shares since 2011. Meanwhile, the prospect of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble brewing spells trouble for a fast-growing networking solutions company. For more than 30 years, there have been a number of next-big-thing trends and innovations that have captivated the attention of professional and everyday investors. Though the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has been the primary market mover for more than two years, it hasn't been the only trend responsible for lifting Wall Street's major stock indexes to new heights. In 2024, the other major trend that played a close second fiddle to the AI revolution is excitement surrounding stock splits. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » A stock split is an event that let's publicly traded companies adjust their share price and outstanding share count by the same factor. Keep in mind that altering a company's share price and share count is purely superficial and doesn't have any impact on its market cap or operating performance. The reason investors have swooned over stock-split stocks is because a certain type of split has historically led to big-time returns. Based on data from Bank of America Global Research, companies conducting forward splits -- this type of split lowers the share price to make it more nominally affordable for everyday investors -- have averaged a 25.4% return in the 12 months following their split announcement since 1980. For the sake of comparison, this is more than double the average annual return rate of the S&P 500 over the same stretch. While stock-split stocks can be a source of outsized returns, it doesn't mean highfliers completing a forward split are necessarily worth buying. As we motor into May, one supercharged stock-split stock stands out as a no-brainer buy, while another looks to be on shaky ground and can be avoided. The stock-split stock that makes for a genius buy as we kick off May is none other than the first high-profile company to announce a forward split in 2025: auto parts supplier O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY). On March 13, O'Reilly's board announced plans to conduct a 15-for-1 forward split, which will go into effect after the closing bell on June 9, assuming its shareholders approve the split at the company's annual meeting on May 15. A 15-for-1 forward split will reduce O'Reilly nominal share price from nearly $1,400 to around $90 per share. Retail investors who lack access to fractional-share purchases through their broker will have a much easier time opening a position, or building up their stake, in O'Reilly Automotive stock after June 9. One reason O'Reilly stock has been unstoppable for decades is the steady aging of U.S. vehicles on American roadways. Based on a May 2024 report from S&P Global Mobility, which is a division of the better-known S&P Global, the average age of cars and light trucks in 2024 reached an all-time high of 12.6 years. This is up from an average age of 11.1 years in 2012. Drivers hanging onto their vehicles for a longer time frame plays right into O'Reilly's hands, as its parts and products will be increasingly relied upon by consumers and mechanics to keep aging cars and trucks in tip-top shape. Another thing investors can appreciate about O'Reilly Automotive is that it's generally recession- and tariff-resistant. If U.S. economic growth weakens or shifts into reverse, consumers are likely to avoid big purchases and keep their vehicles longer. Likewise, the prospect of higher prices on some new vehicles, as a result of President Donald Trump's tariffs, should encourage drivers to hang onto their existing cars, SUVs, and trucks. O'Reilly Automotive's enviable outperformance is also a reflection of its hub-and-spoke distribution model meeting its customers' needs. O'Reilly's 31 distribution centers are centrally located around nearly 400 hub stores (the "spokes"), which can quickly funnel around 153,000 stock keeping units (SKUs) to local stores on a same-day or overnight basis. The icing on the cake for investors is that O'Reilly Automotive has one of the most-effective share-repurchase programs among public companies. Since introducing its buyback program in 2011, the company has repurchased $25.94 billion worth of its common stock and retired 59.4% of its outstanding shares. Companies with steady or growing net income (like O'Reilly) should enjoy a healthy boost to their earnings per share (EPS) as a result of an aggressive buyback program. On the other end of the spectrum is a tech outperformer that may struggle to live up to the hype in the coming quarters. I'm talking about cloud networking solutions provider Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET). Arista's board announced a 4-for-1 forward split on Nov. 7, which is when the company's third-quarter operating results were presented. Shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis after the closing bell on Dec. 3, 2024, which at the time reduced Arista's share price from nearly $422 to a more nominally palatable $105 for investors who can't purchase fractional shares. On the surface, there's a lot to like about Arista Networks. For one, it's playing a key role in the evolution of AI in the networking space. The company's hardware and software connect graphics processing units (GPUs) and servers, which aid in making computing more efficient. The rapid expansion of AI-accelerated data centers plays right into Arista's proverbial hands. Arista's sustained sales growth rate of nearly 20% is also giving investors ample reason to smile. In particular, service revenue surged by 35% in 2024 to $1.12 billion. This segment sported a juicy 81% gross profit margin last year. But if investors dig beneath the headlines, they'll find reasons to be skeptical about Arista Networks' near-term outlook. One of the biggest concerns for Arista is the possibility of the AI bubble bursting. Every next-big-thing technology and innovation for more than 30 years has navigated an early stage bubble-bursting event, and there are no indications that artificial intelligence is going to be the exception to this unwritten rule. The simple fact that most businesses haven't yet optimized their AI solutions and/or aren't generating a positive return on their AI investments signals that investors have, once again, overestimated the early adoption and utility of a potentially game-changing technology. Macro factors aren't working in Arista Networks' favor, either. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model, first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. economy is projected to decline by 2.4%, as of an April 24 update. This would mark the worst organic, non-pandemic, contraction for the U.S. economy since the Great Recession in 2009. If the U.S. economy weakens, demand for Arista's products wouldn't be immune. Lastly, even though Artisa Networks' stock has come down from its peak, a still-rich price-to-sales multiple north of 14 suggests there's room for further downside. Before you buy stock in O'Reilly Automotive, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and O'Reilly Automotive wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $607,048!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,193!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 880% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 161% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2025 Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Sean Williams has positions in Bank of America. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Arista Networks, Bank of America, and S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 1 Supercharged Stock-Split Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist in May and 1 to Avoid was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US economy expected to have slowed sharply at start of Trump's 2nd term
Government data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show a sharp economic slowdown over the initial months of President Donald Trump's second term as a flurry of tariff proposals stoked uncertainty among businesses and consumers, analysts told ABC News. The measure of gross domestic product, or GDP, will likely be lowered by a surge of imports as firms stockpiled inventory to avoid far-reaching tariffs, though the trend did not reflect economic weakness, analysts said. The government's GDP formula subtracts imports from exports in an effort to exclude foreign production from the calculation of total goods and services. The report will detail GDP over the first three months of 2025, offering the first look at a top gauge of economic health since Trump took office. The data covers a period before the so-called Liberation Day tariffs went into effect in early April. MORE: Trump's economic policies shake norms, markets as uncertainty looms Analysts widely expect a steep decline in economic performance at the outset of this year, though they disagree over the severity of the slowdown. Some analysts believe the data will show the U.S. economy tipped into a contraction over the most recent quarter, which would likely intensify warnings on Wall Street about a possible recession. Bank of America Global Research and BNP Paribas both expect the economy to have grown at an annualized rate of 0.4% over a three-month stretch at the start of 2025, which would mark a sharp decline from a rate of 2.4% at the end of last year. S&P Global Ratings expects the data to show the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% at the outset of this year. A forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which excludes gold imports, shows the economy shrank at a 1.5% annualized rate. 'We anticipate a marked slowdown in the U.S. economy during the first quarter, driven by increasing policy uncertainty surrounding trade, tariffs, and immigration,' S&P Global Ratings said in a note to clients. The data may be skewed by a flood of imports as companies sought to circumvent tariffs, S&P Global Ratings said. The GDP measure deducts imports to exclude foreign-made goods and services, so a one-time import surge could blur the finding. 'The first-quarter GDP reading may not provide an accurate reflection of underlying economic conditions because it's significantly influenced by the frontloading of imports,' S&P Global Ratings said. Many observers define a recession through the shorthand metric of two consecutive quarters of decline in a nation's inflation-adjusted GDP. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a research organization tasked with formally identifying a recession, uses a more complicated definition that draws on a range of indicators. Despite flagging consumer sentiment and ongoing market turmoil, some key measures of the economy remain fairly strong. The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level and job growth remains robust, though it has slowed from previous highs. Meanwhile, inflation cooled in March, putting price increases well below a peak attained in 2022, data showed. MORE: Consumer gloom worse than expected in April amid Trump's tariffs The sturdy data offers at best partial reassurance, some economists previously told ABC News. Measures of the economy like inflation and hiring are released one month after the data is gathered, and they often reflect slow-moving shifts in business or consumer behavior, the economists said. As a result, such measures can prove outdated, especially when the economy is in flux. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the 'solid condition' of the U.S. economy, but he cautioned about signals of a potential slowdown. 'Life moves pretty fast,' Powell said. US economy expected to have slowed sharply at start of Trump's 2nd term originally appeared on
