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Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
‘Mission impossible': Why the Bank of Canada faces ‘risky' June rate decision
OTTAWA – Few would confuse Hollywood action star Tom Cruise with Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem. But while Cruise rides a plane in tailspin to his latest box office smash, some economists say Macklem finds himself in his own high-stakes circumstances with the central bank's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Macklem's mission is to chart a path for interest rates that keeps Canada's economy afloat at a precarious moment without straying from its inflation-taming mandate. 'It really is mission impossible,' said Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. The latest data show price pressures could be building up again in Canada at the same time some economists warn of a tariff-induced slowdown on the horizon, pulling monetary policy in opposite directions. 'The bank really is in a difficult position here, but they really should be resuming rate cuts to get their interest rates lower to somewhere around two per cent, again, to cushion the Canadian economy for what's to come,' DiCapua argued. The Bank of Canada's policy rate stands at 2.75 per cent following a pause at the central bank's last decision in April, snapping a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Most economists expect the central bank will hold rates again on Wednesday. In April, Macklem said the Bank of Canada would pause issuing any formal forecasts and be less forward-looking than usual until it gained more certainty on how the economy would react to ever-shifting tariff threats. President Donald Trump threw a new wrench into the gears of global trade late Friday when he announced plans to double existing tariffs on steel and aluminum entering the United States to 50 per cent starting Wednesday. After Statistics Canada reported a surprisingly strong 2.2 per cent annualized rise in real gross domestic product for the first quarter on Friday, money markets were betting overwhelmingly in favour of another rate hold this week. BMO last week firmed up its call for another hold in response to the latest economic data, now projecting a cut to instead come in July. 'The key point here is that the GDP figures are sending no obvious distress signals so far in 2025,' BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients. But the question for some economists isn't what the economy has done — it's what comes next. The Bank of Canada's own surveys of businesses published in early April showed sentiment was 'sharply' lower amid the tariff uncertainty, with many firms putting investment and hiring plans on hold. StatCan said the main reason Canada's economy was growing in the first quarter was because many businesses were trying to rush ahead of the tariffs, ramping up exports and stockpiling inventories. Macklem said at the G7 Finance Ministers' Summit in Kananaskis, Alta., last month that the Bank of Canada was expecting a run-up in economic activity in the first quarter, but that the months that follow 'will be quite a bit weaker.' 'They're really waiting for a shoe to drop, so to speak,' said DiCapua. There were early signs of economic pain in the April jobs figures released last month, with the trade-sensitive manufacturing sector contracting by roughly 31,000 positions and the unemployment rate rising two ticks to 6.9 per cent. A slowing economy usually takes the steam out of inflation as Canadians swap spending for saving, but April inflation data showed underlying price pressures were instead heating up. Cutting interest rates can encourage businesses and consumers to spend — mitigating an economic hit — but also risks fuelling inflationary pressures. 'Outside of the current situation that we're in, I would say that the Bank of Canada should be holding interest rates,' DiCapua said. 'But the data that we are seeing come in, especially through the labour market … is going to move the Canadian economy into a very weak position that should keep prices at bay. So it's kind of a risky balance here.' Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said he expects the central bank will deliver three more quarter-point cuts at every other decision to bring the policy rate down to two per cent before the end of the year. 'Our view at Capital Economics is that it's worth cutting again in June as insurance against those downside risks and try and protect the economy a bit,' he said. There are also 'psychological' reasons for a June cut, Brown argued. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. Should the Bank of Canada keep rates elevated, businesses and consumers may hold back even more on their spending decisions, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that weakens the economy. 'If the bank doesn't cut here, because they're still very concerned about inflation, that's telling businesses and consumers that the bank doesn't necessarily have their back,' Brown said. CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld is among those calling for a rate hold this week. He said he sees the case for an interest rate cut too, but doesn't think the Bank of Canada's June decision is its final reckoning. 'No one interest rate decision in isolation would ever be a fatal error one way or the other, but I think the clock will start to tick louder on getting some interest rate relief if the economy remains soft,' Shenfeld said. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 2, 2025.
Hamilton Spectator
an hour ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
‘Mission impossible': Why the Bank of Canada faces ‘risky' June rate decision
OTTAWA - Few would confuse Hollywood action star Tom Cruise with Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem. But while Cruise rides a plane in tailspin to his latest box office smash, some economists say Macklem finds himself in his own high-stakes circumstances with the central bank's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Macklem's mission is to chart a path for interest rates that keeps Canada's economy afloat at a precarious moment without straying from its inflation-taming mandate. 'It really is mission impossible,' said Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. The latest data show price pressures could be building up again in Canada at the same time some economists warn of a tariff-induced slowdown on the horizon, pulling monetary policy in opposite directions. 'The bank really is in a difficult position here, but they really should be resuming rate cuts to get their interest rates lower to somewhere around two per cent, again, to cushion the Canadian economy for what's to come,' DiCapua argued. The Bank of Canada's policy rate stands at 2.75 per cent following a pause at the central bank's last decision in April, snapping a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Most economists expect the central bank will hold rates again on Wednesday. In April, Macklem said the Bank of Canada would pause issuing any formal forecasts and be less forward-looking than usual until it gained more certainty on how the economy would react to ever-shifting tariff threats. President Donald Trump threw a new wrench into the gears of global trade late Friday when he announced plans to double existing tariffs on steel and aluminum entering the United States to 50 per cent starting Wednesday. After Statistics Canada reported a surprisingly strong 2.2 per cent annualized rise in real gross domestic product for the first quarter on Friday, money markets were betting overwhelmingly in favour of another rate hold this week. BMO last week firmed up its call for another hold in response to the latest economic data, now projecting a cut to instead come in July. 'The key point here is that the GDP figures are sending no obvious distress signals so far in 2025,' BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients. But the question for some economists isn't what the economy has done — it's what comes next. The Bank of Canada's own surveys of businesses published in early April showed sentiment was 'sharply' lower amid the tariff uncertainty, with many firms putting investment and hiring plans on hold. StatCan said the main reason Canada's economy was growing in the first quarter was because many businesses were trying to rush ahead of the tariffs, ramping up exports and stockpiling inventories. Macklem said at the G7 Finance Ministers' Summit in Kananaskis, Alta., last month that the Bank of Canada was expecting a run-up in economic activity in the first quarter, but that the months that follow 'will be quite a bit weaker.' 'They're really waiting for a shoe to drop, so to speak,' said DiCapua. There were early signs of economic pain in the April jobs figures released last month, with the trade-sensitive manufacturing sector contracting by roughly 31,000 positions and the unemployment rate rising two ticks to 6.9 per cent. A slowing economy usually takes the steam out of inflation as Canadians swap spending for saving, but April inflation data showed underlying price pressures were instead heating up. Cutting interest rates can encourage businesses and consumers to spend — mitigating an economic hit — but also risks fuelling inflationary pressures. 'Outside of the current situation that we're in, I would say that the Bank of Canada should be holding interest rates,' DiCapua said. 'But the data that we are seeing come in, especially through the labour market ... is going to move the Canadian economy into a very weak position that should keep prices at bay. So it's kind of a risky balance here.' Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said he expects the central bank will deliver three more quarter-point cuts at every other decision to bring the policy rate down to two per cent before the end of the year. 'Our view at Capital Economics is that it's worth cutting again in June as insurance against those downside risks and try and protect the economy a bit,' he said. There are also 'psychological' reasons for a June cut, Brown argued. Should the Bank of Canada keep rates elevated, businesses and consumers may hold back even more on their spending decisions, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that weakens the economy. 'If the bank doesn't cut here, because they're still very concerned about inflation, that's telling businesses and consumers that the bank doesn't necessarily have their back,' Brown said. CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld is among those calling for a rate hold this week. He said he sees the case for an interest rate cut too, but doesn't think the Bank of Canada's June decision is its final reckoning. 'No one interest rate decision in isolation would ever be a fatal error one way or the other, but I think the clock will start to tick louder on getting some interest rate relief if the economy remains soft,' Shenfeld said. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 2, 2025.
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
In the news today: Cooler week ahead as fires burn by Flin Flon, Man.
Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed… Cooler week ahead as fires burn by Flin Flon, Man. Cooler temperatures and a chance of rain this week is forecasted in a northwestern Manitoba city that's had to evacuate thousands due to wildfire. As of Sunday night, Environment Canada is projecting temperatures in the mid teens to mid 20s over the next week, with a good chance of rain coming next Saturday in Flin Flon. Crews have been trying to keep a blaze burning nearby at bay, as they have said the fire has been contained to outside its perimeter highway. At this time, crews say there have been no structure losses. To date, more than 17,000 people have been displaced by wildfires in Manitoba, including 5,000 from Flin Flon. Here's what else we're watching… Carney, premiers meeting in Saskatoon Canada's premiers are meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney in person for the first time since the federal election to pitch which major projects they think should get fast tracked. The recent campaign saw Carney vow to slash federal approval times on major infrastructure projects considered to be in the national interest to help make the country an 'energy superpower.' The full list of big industrial projects they're discussing is being kept secret, since they don't want to send a bad signal about anything that doesn't make the short list. But Ontario Premier Doug Ford says his pick is the Ring of Fire mining project in northern Ontario, while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants to see the Port of Prince Rupert become a major trade corridor. The first ministers are also expected to discuss breaking down interprovincial trade barriers, which would make it easier to purchase Canadian-made goods from other provinces and territories. Bank of Canada faces 'risky' rate decision Few would confuse Hollywood action star Tom Cruise with Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem. But while Cruise rides a plane in tailspin to his latest box office smash, some economists say Macklem finds himself in his own high-stakes circumstances with the central bank's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Macklem's mission is to chart a path for interest rates that keeps Canada's economy afloat at a precarious moment without straying from its inflation-taming mandate. 'It really is mission impossible,' said Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. The Bank of Canada's policy rate stands at 2.75 per cent following a pause at the central bank's last decision in April, snapping a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Most economists expect the central bank will hold rates again on Wednesday. Ontario to limit debate on controversial Bill 5 Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government is moving to shut down debate on its most controversial piece of legislation this session, one of a plethora of bills getting the fast-track treatment before the legislature rises for a summer break. A mining law known as Bill 5 that would give the government power to suspend provincial and municipal laws for chosen projects in areas deemed to have economic importance – and remove some endangered species protections – has sparked a lot of opposition. A legislative committee heard from First Nations leaders and environmental groups, as well as mining groups, over two days and as the committee was considering amendments last week the NDP and Liberals used procedural tools to grind the process to a halt, in protest. Government house leader Steve Clark is now stepping in to limit further committee time and require the bill to go back to the house for third reading, with just one hour of debate, and a final vote that same day. While Bill 5 got two days of committee hearings, the six other pieces of legislation the government is speeding up have had no hearings, and will have as little as half an hour of third-reading debate, with just nine minutes each allotted to the two recognized opposition parties. Hockey players' sex assault trial continues The sexual assault trial of five former members of Canada's world junior hockey team is expected to hear today whether another one of the players will take the stand. Alex Formenton's legal team is expected to tell the court whether they will call any witnesses, including their client. Another accused, Carter Hart, testified over two days last week, which included one day of cross-examination by the Crown. Formenton, Hart and their ex-teammates Michael McLeod, Dillon Dube and Callan Foote have pleaded not guilty to sexual assault. The trial centres on an encounter with a woman inside a London, Ont., hotel room in the early hours of June 19, 2018. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 2, 2025.
Malay Mail
3 hours ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI r t KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington , and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags:These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during are some major events to follow in June:June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY , potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned , the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations , some business leaders are won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Hamilton Spectator
4 hours ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Milton's housing market shows resilience amid economic pressures, expert says
A local business leader is offering strategic insight into financial resilience and workforce retention, as Milton's housing market continues to show signs of stability despite elevated interest rates and broader economic pressures. Mohammad Asif, director at the Milton branch of MetaNexus Business Solutions and an expert in digital transformation and strategic leadership, has more than two decades of experience in finance, consulting, and operations. He is also recognized for his people-first leadership approach, which emphasizes mentorship, inclusive culture, and team development. Asif has held senior advisory roles in the financial services sector. His work centres on helping organizations address turnover, improve compliance, and implement data-driven models to support sustainable growth. 'Organizations that lead with both strategy and empathy tend to see better long-term results,' Asif said. He applies the same long-term view to real estate, particularly in the town of Milton, where he said market fundamentals remain sound. 'Milton is maintaining stability,' he said in an interview. 'While some parts of Ontario have experienced notable price declines, Milton's average home price remains just above $1.03 million — a modest increase from last year.' Asif said the town's steady performance is supported by its growing population of young families, strong infrastructure and ongoing development. Although more listings are available and buyers are becoming more cautious, he said Milton's market operates on its own dynamics. 'Real estate trends shouldn't be viewed strictly through provincial averages,' he said. With mortgage rates sitting around 6.7 per cent, affordability is a growing concern. Asif said some buyers are looking to townhomes or condominiums as more attainable options, while others are pooling resources with family or waiting to see what direction the Bank of Canada takes. 'This is no longer a blanket seller's market,' he said. 'Success now comes from securing pre-approvals, locking in interest rates early and identifying motivated sellers.' For first-time buyers, Asif recommends looking beyond cosmetics and focusing on long-term value. He also advises making use of federal financial tools, including the First Home Savings Account and the RRSP Home Buyers' Plan. 'Don't overlook older homes,' he added. 'Neighbourhoods like Clarke, Beaty and Timberlea offer larger lots and value for those looking to build equity.' Asif said existing homeowners should align decisions around refinancing, upsizing or downsizing with long-term financial goals. While some private lenders may offer favourable refinance terms, he warned that conditions should be carefully reviewed. Those upsizing may benefit from mortgage portability, and downsizers should plan for added costs such as land transfer taxes and condominium fees. 'Anyone up for renewal should compare options instead of automatically accepting current rates,' he said. Despite economic uncertainty, Asif said Milton remains a strong choice for real estate investors. He cited steady immigration, population growth and major infrastructure projects—such as expanded GO Transit service and Highway 401 upgrades—as key long-term drivers. He also pointed to recent zoning changes that now permit Additional Residential Units (ARUs), enhancing rental income potential. 'Today's market demands detailed cash flow assessments,' he said. 'Investors must be ready to adapt to financing requirements and policy shifts.' Asif said the core message for both buyers and sellers is the same: don't react impulsively. 'Whether you're a buyer, seller or investor, the key is to look at the big picture,' he said. 'Milton remains one of Ontario's strongest real estate markets. It's not about timing the market — it's about staying in it.' Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
