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Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Can The US-China Tariff De-Escalation Send Bitcoin, Ethereum To New Highs?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in their ongoing trade dispute, significantly scaling back reciprocal tariffs and establishing a structured negotiation framework. What Happened: According to market analysts, this shift has removed a major source of tail risk and could drive a broad-based rebound in risk assets, including U.S. equities, the dollar and altcoins. Under the terms of the provisional agreement announced Monday, the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, comprising a 10% base tariff consistent with other trading partners and an additional 20% specifically targeting fentanyl-related concerns. Trending: — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. However, officials hinted that the total tariff burden could decline to just 10% pending progress in fentanyl negotiations. On the Chinese side, tariffs on U.S. goods have been immediately reduced to 10%, and all non-tariff barriers, including rare earth export bans and aviation restrictions, have been lifted. "This is a critical development," said Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen. "It effectively removes the tail risk of sudden re-escalation during the agreed 90-day negotiation window." Barthere added that assets previously underperforming, such as altcoins, U.S. equities, and the dollar, now appear positioned for a catch-up rally. "Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been the clear outperformer so far... but with the latest Bessent and Greer announcements, I expect broader asset classes to begin catching up as the risk environment improves." The tone of negotiations has also shifted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized a cooperative framework, noting that the two sides have "an established process, a mechanism, and clearly mandated negotiators," marking a contrast to the volatility of past talks. Both governments highlighted "common interests" and explicitly rejected the idea of economic It Matters: Markets responded swiftly. U.S. one-year yields rose nearly 10 basis points, suggesting a repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and reduced concerns over recession-linked rate cuts. While tariffs on key sectors like autos and steel remain, experts suggest the ongoing negotiations may shift toward company-level solutions in sensitive areas such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. From a digital asset perspective, the clearer macro picture is already impacting trading flows. Speaking with Benzinga, Charles d'Haussy, director at the DYDX Foundation, noted that "the market is moving past U.S.–China tariff worries," pointing to a renewed push toward deregulation and tax cuts. "Bitcoin has soared to $106,000... and derivatives markets are now targeting $125,000," he said, adding that Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is also gaining momentum as a foundational layer for institutional tokenization efforts. BlackRock's (NASDAQ:BLK) recent meeting with the SEC to discuss Ethereum ETF staking underscores this pivot. Rohan Misra, Head of GCC at AMINA Bank, added that current market behavior differs from the all-asset rally of 2021. "Only forfeited assets will be included in the U.S. digital asset stockpile. Digital assets with real-world use cases should see more traction as institutional momentum builds," he told Benzinga, while highlighting the central role of global macro factors in sustaining Bitcoin's leadership. The truce agreement also includes a push by the U.S. to expand market access in China for U.S. goods and services, including agricultural exports, LNG and financial firms. Currency manipulation was discussed but not emphasized, suggesting both sides aim to keep the negotiations focused on trade flows. While uncertainty remains over whether risk assets can revisit their peak optimism levels from January, analysts agree the new framework reduces downside volatility. "There is potential for risk assets to move beyond the January peak levels if we see a generous tax cut package materialize," Barthere said. Read Next: New to crypto? Get up to $400 in rewards for successfully completing short educational courses and making your first qualifying trade on Coinbase. A must-have for all crypto enthusiasts: Sign up for the Gemini Credit Card today and earn rewards on Bitcoin Ether, or 60+ other tokens, with every purchase. Image: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Can The US-China Tariff De-Escalation Send Bitcoin, Ethereum To New Highs? originally appeared on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
70% Chance Crypto Market Will Bottom Before June as Trade Fears Weigh on Investor Sentiment
The cryptocurrency market could hit its lowest point within the next two months, with a 70% chance of this happening before June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen. The timing depends heavily on the outcome of ongoing global tariff negotiations, particularly the reciprocal import tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. These tariffs, intended to reduce the country's trade deficit and boost manufacturing, are creating uncertainty across financial markets. Trump unveiled these measures on April 2, aiming to address a $1.2 trillion trade gap. The global markets have already shown volatility in response to previous tariff announcements, and experts are watching closely for the impact of this decision. Barthere emphasized that the mood of the ongoing trade discussions will play a crucial role in determining when the crypto market finds its bottom. Nansen's research estimates a 70% chance that crypto prices will reach their lowest point between now and June. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both currently trading 15% and 22% below their highs for the year, respectively. As both digital and traditional markets remain stagnant, investors are being cautious. Bitcoin has been consolidating between $82,000 and $85,000, showing limited movement after a period of recalibration during the first quarter. Traders are looking for a breakout above $84,500, which would signal more positive momentum. Support for Bitcoin is seen at the $82,000 mark, while some analysts are eyeing a potential rise to $86,500 and even $90,000 if sentiment shifts positively. Despite the market's cautiousness, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains above the 'extreme fear' mark for the third consecutive session. This suggests that, while there is some improvement in sentiment, investors are still hesitant to take on large positions in an uncertain environment. As a result, many are choosing to adopt a 'wait and see' approach, holding off on significant investments until the outlook becomes clearer. The volatility in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies highlights how intertwined they have become in the face of global economic uncertainty. As the U.S. continues its tariff negotiations, investors are hoping for a resolution that will provide clarity for the markets. Barthere believes that once the hardest part of these talks is over, the crypto market could finally see a clearer path to recovery, signaling a potential bottom for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The key takeaway is that trade tensions are continuing to shape investor sentiment, and the outcome of these negotiations will likely be pivotal in determining the direction of the crypto market in the coming months.
