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The Hill
04-08-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Trump's numbers are down, but Republicans are far from out
As President Trump expands the trade war with new tariffs against more than 60 countries, it would behoove his administration to pay attention to what polls and public sentiment are saying. Indeed, with Republicans holding an extremely narrow lead in the House of Representatives, how Americans feel about the administration figures to play a critical role, as midterms tend to be referenda on the party in charge. To that end, polls continue to reflect Trump's divisiveness and the polarization evident in American politics today, as well as widespread discontent over tariffs. Indeed, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator shows Trump's average approval rating 5 points underwater — with 46 percent approval versus 51 percent disapproval. Trump's approval rating represents an almost 4-point drop from the roughly 50 percent of the popular vote that he won in the 2024 election. That said, the administration should be concerned about sentiment among independents. Just 3 in 10 (29 percent) of this critical voting bloc give Trump a positive approval rating, whereas a strong majority (62 percent) disapprove of the president thus far. Trump's second term polling has been surprisingly stable compared to his first. Trump's ratings, per RealClearPolitics, have never surpassed the plus-6 points he entered office with, nor have they exceeded minus-7. The relative range-bound numbers underscore that Trump has both a firm floor on his numbers and a hard ceiling. With that in mind, the data on how Americans feel about Trump's handling of specific issues have been much more volatile, suggesting underlying pessimism about the president and his policies. On the economy, a cornerstone of Trump's campaign, multiple polls show that voters decisively disapprove of Trump's approach, especially when it comes to trade policy. Recent polling from Fox News reveals that a majority (55 percent) of registered voters disapprove of his economic approach, whereas 44 percent approve. Emerson University polling confirms Fox's findings, showing a 10-point net disapproval (51 percent to 41 percent). Recent Morning Consult polling shows that 6 in 10 (61 percent) Americans blame Trump personally for driving up the cost of living due to tariffs. A similar share (63 percent) also believe tariffs have had a negative impact on grocery prices. Those polls come on the heels of the passage of the 'Big, Beautiful bill,' which, as we've previously noted in these pages, was viewed quite negatively, and just before an expanded tariff policy. Immediately prior to Trump's tax and spending bill, a Fox News poll found that a strong majority (59 percent) of voters opposed the bill, versus just 38 percent who supported it. Negative sentiment towards Trump's handling of the economy had begun to improve from April's tariff-induced chaos, particularly as trade deals were signed and it appeared more were on the way. However, Trump had backtracked, with a series of on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs before ultimately implementing broad tariffs covering more than 60 countries on Thursday. It is likely that Trump expanded the trade war at exactly the wrong time. Inflation has also begun creeping back up, with the personal consumption expenditures index rising for the second straight month to the highest level since February, just as hiring is slowing markedly, according to Friday's jobs report. That is bad news for a president who, in addition to the aforementioned Morning Consult data, has a net negative 22-point rating on handling inflation (37 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove) according to Economist/YouGov polling. Even on immigration, which had been a strength for the president, Trump's heavy-handed approach has rankled voters. A Quinnipiac poll from mid-July shows that 55 percent of Americans disapprove of how the White House is handling immigration, while 40 percent approve. And while Quinnipiac's numbers are more negative than other polls, RealClearPolitics' tracker still shows Trump with a net negative 7-point rating on immigration. The administration's handling of the Jeffery Epstein issue also appears to be weighing on Trump's numbers, even among his base. Slightly more than one-fifth (22 percent) of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the Epstein issue, a number that would look considerably worse if not for Trump's own base. However, even among Trump voters, less than a majority (45 percent) give the president a passing grade on Epstein, per Economist/YouGov polling. With help from Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), who sent the House home for recess earlier than anticipated, Trump was able to avoid congressional pressure on Epstein. But that reprieve will end in a few weeks, and the issue will likely be brought back into the spotlight. To be sure, polling does also reveal a handful of bright spots for the administration. The share of Americans believing the country is on the 'wrong track' (54 percent) remains far below the 75 percent peak that occurred during former President Biden's term. Yet so far, Democrats have been unable to capitalize on Trump's negative approval ratings. Democrats' lead in the generic congressional ballot (3 points) is solidly within the margin of error, while some individual polls such as one from Cygnal show just a 1-point lead, a virtual tie. In that same vein, whereas Wall Street Journal polling shows that a slight majority (52 percent) of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, that is still far below the nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of voters who view the Democratic Party unfavorably. Moreover, while Americans give Trump negative marks on the economy, inflation, tariffs and foreign policy, they still trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle each issue, according to the Wall Street Journal's analysis. As they note, 'disapproval of Trump's handling of inflation outweighs approval by 11 points, and yet the GOP is trusted more than Democrats to handle inflation by 10 points.' That is a remarkable contrast, and underscores that, despite elevated levels of disapproval toward Trump, Democrats remain unable to provide a viable alternative. The ultimate impact of public opinion towards Trump on the midterms remains to be seen, but thus far, the data indicates that while Trump's grip on his base remains intact, he is losing support among swing voters and even some non-MAGA Republicans. Whether or not he can reverse this trend ahead of midterms will be critical, but only if Democrats find a way to capitalize on growing disillusionment toward Trump and the Republicans.
Indian Express
04-07-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Winners and losers as Trump's ‘Big, Beautiful' Bill passes Congress hurdle
President Donald Trump has hailed the sweeping tax and spending legislation — the 'Big, Beautiful bill' — passed by Congress early Friday as one of the most successful pieces of legislation in American history. But as the measure heads to his desk for signature later today, the real-world impact of the package is expected to vary sharply across industries, income groups and regions. The legislation makes permanent the 2017 Trump tax cuts, restores several business deductions, scales back green energy incentives, and enacts deep reductions in federal safety net programs. While the bill is expected to deliver significant gains for corporations, high earners and certain types of workers, others — including low-income Americans, hospitals and clean energy firms — stand to lose out. Corporate America Major business groups such as the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable applauded the bill's passage, citing provisions that will permanently extend key elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The legislation reinstates the ability for companies to fully deduct equipment purchases in the first year — a break that had been phasing out since 2023. It also restores immediate expensing of research and development costs, which businesses had been required to amortize over five years beginning in 2022. Manufacturers Manufacturers will benefit from new rules allowing full and immediate expensing for the construction of new facilities. The provision, retroactive to January 19, 2025, is set to last through the end of 2028. The bill also enhances tax credits for semiconductor companies building fabrication plants in the United States, aiming to boost domestic chip production. Small businesses and partnerships Owners of certain pass-through entities, such as law firms, medical practices and investment partnerships, will continue to benefit from a tax deduction that allows them to write off a portion of their income on personal tax returns. The deduction, originally set at 20 per cent, was increased to 23 per cent in the House version of the bill. The Senate maintained the original 20 per cent. High-income Americans An analysis by CNN showed that the top 20 per cent of earners would see their after-tax income rise by nearly $13,000 annually, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, translating to a 3 per cent increase. For the top 0.1 per cent, the average gain is estimated at more than $290,000 per year. The bill also temporarily raises the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to $40,000 annually for households earning up to $500,000, offering relief to residents of high-tax states. A new provision bars millionaires from collecting unemployment benefits. Tipped and overtime workers Employees in tipped occupations will be allowed to deduct up to $25,000 in tip income from federal taxes through 2028. Workers who earn overtime can deduct up to $12,500 of that income. However, these benefits are subject to income limits. Low-income Americans The bill enacts sweeping changes to Medicaid and food stamps, imposing federal work requirements on both programs. For the first time in its 60-year history, Medicaid will require able-bodied adults, including parents of children as young as 14, to work, volunteer, or participate in job training to retain benefits. The Congressional Budget Office estimates millions could lose coverage or assistance. Few of those removed from Medicaid rolls are expected to have access to employer-based insurance. According to Penn Wharton, those earning under $18,000 annually would see their after-tax, after-transfer income fall by $165, or 1.1 per cent. Those earning between $18,000 and $53,000 would see a $30 gain, or 0.1 per cent increase. Middle-income households, earning $53,000–$96,000, would gain about $1,430, or 1.8 per cent. The Senate bill also tightens verification for Affordable Care Act subsidies, potentially affecting middle-income Americans who rely on those federal supports. Overall, more than 10 million people could be uninsured by 2034, according to an analysis of the legislation and CBO projections cited by CNN. Hospitals Hospitals, particularly those serving Medicaid populations, warn that the bill's changes will lead to increased uncompensated care and reduced access. 'This nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts will result in irreparable harm,' Rick Pollack, the chief executive of the American Hospital Association, told CNN. While the bill includes a $50 billion rural hospital support fund, the association says it is insufficient to offset the losses. Clean energy and EVs Although the Senate removed an excise tax on wind and solar that advocates called a potential 'killer,' the bill still phases out renewable energy tax incentives by 2027. It also imposes new requirements that critics say will make remaining credits harder to claim. The American Clean Power Association called the bill a 'step backward' that would cost jobs and raise electricity rates. The measure also ends electric vehicle tax credits of up to $7,500 after September. Those incentives were originally scheduled to run through 2032. Deficit hawks The bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, according to CBO. That comes in addition to the existing $36.2 trillion national debt. Higher deficits are expected to push up interest rates, increasing the cost of mortgages, car loans and business borrowing. The federal government's own interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion per year which is already more than triple what they were in 2017 and larger than the entire defence budget. (With inputs from CNN and Reuters)
Time of India
05-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stephen Miller sidesteps Elon but opposes him amid rumors that his wife left him for Musk
Stephen Miller avoids mentioning Elon Musk amid rumors over his wife as he defends Big, Beautiful bill. Donald Trump's aide Stephen Miller strongly defended the 'Big, Beautiful Bill, without, however, naming Elon Musk once. He reposted other people's X posts and criticized them, put forward his point but did not repost Elon Musk's comments on the bill -- amid rumors that his wife Katie Miller has left him for Elon Musk. The spending bill has become a flashpoint between Trump administration and Elon Musk as they are not on the same page following Elon Musk's exit from DOGE. Stephen Miller's wife has left her White House role to work for Elon Musk full time while the rumor is Katie Miller has also left Stephen Miller for Elon Musk. The Millers and Elon Musk did not issue any statement on the rumors. There were also speculations that Katie Miller, Stephen Miller and Elon Musk were a throuple before Stephen Miller was apparently left alone. While Musk continued rallying against the spending bill, Stephen Miller acted as his counter as Miller called the bill 'the most essential piece of generations." 'One of the bigger points of confusion on the BBB is spending vs. tax cuts,' Miller wrote Wednesday morning. 'The lefty CBO says extending the 2017 tax cuts (preventing their expiration) increases the deficit. Some critics have seen this figure and claimed or implied the bill increases *spending.* Even according to CBO, the bill cuts spending over $1.6 trillion,' he continued. Miller attacked Republican senator Rand Paul who was supporting Elon Musk, but Miller personally avoided any mention of Musk. "So when a libertarian (eg Rand [Paul]) attacks the 'deficit' impact of the bill, they are attacking the tax cut. Of course, honestly accounted, extending current tax rates has zero deficit impact which is why the bill, because of its spending cuts, reduces the deficit," Stephen Miller wrote.
USA Today
20-05-2025
- Business
- USA Today
5 things investors need to know about Trump's 'One Big, Beautiful Bill'
Bram Berkowitz The Motley Fool Hear this story The U.S. House of Representatives has unveiled a legislative package dubbed "One Big, Beautiful bill," a phrase President Donald Trump has now said several times on his various social media accounts or in front of media. The bill attempts to combine several priorities in Trump's legislative agenda with a clear emphasis on tax cuts. However, the bill also proposes other initiatives aimed at border security, energy and spending cuts. If passed, the bill could go down as one of Trump's landmark pieces of legislation, although it still has to go through the U.S. Senate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he would like to see the bill passed into law by July 4. Here are 5 things investors need to know. 1. $5 trillion dollars in tax cuts Trump and the Republicans have been talking about tax cuts since Trump won the election back in November, and now they have arrived. The first order of business in the bill is to make the 10-year tax cuts passed by Trump in his first term through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 permanent. Some of the more notable items in this bill included lowering individual tax bracket rates anywhere from 1% to 4%, setting a single corporate tax rate of 21%, and increasing the standard deduction. Other new proposed tax cuts in the bill include a temporary cancellation of federal taxes on tips and overtime wages. The bill also proposes to increase the small business deduction by 3% to 23%; increase the estate tax exemption by $1.4 million to $15 million; incorporate a temporary boost to the standard deduction; temporarily raise the child tax credit by $500 to $2,500; and make changes to the state and local tax deduction cap. The Joint Committee on Taxation's (JCT) early estimates suggest that Trump's plan could cost over $5 trillion over the next decade. Trump has said he plans to fund the bill through tariffs, which remain in a constant stream of negotiations. 2. Republicans left out a millionaire's tax In an idea that likely came as a surprise to Democrats and Republicans alike, Trump through social media floated the idea of increasing taxes on wealthier Americans, suggesting in a Truth Social post that the bill should potentially let tax cuts from his 2017 bill expire for those making between $2.5 million and $5 million. Republicans have vowed to cut spending and lower the fiscal deficit, but it's not going to be easy if they pass a bill that costs trillions of dollars. However, after floating the idea, Trump later wrote on Truth Social that increasing taxes on the rich may not be such a good political move, and it doesn't appear to have garnered much interest from House Republicans. 3. Eliminating the electric vehicle tax credit The legislative package would also eliminate a series of tax credits that promoted the purchase of new and used electric vehicles (EVs). Currently, people purchasing an EV can get a $7,500 tax credit. This would continue through 2026, according to the bill, but starting next year, the credit would only apply to companies that have sold less than 200,000 electric vehicles. The bill would also get rid of a $4,000 tax credit for used EVs at the end of 2025. The last EV credit the bill targets is a $7,500 one for commercial businesses. The Wall Street Journal estimates that this could have the largest impact because EV companies have used this credit to reduce the cost of leasing an EV, a practice that can account for up to 80% of EV revenue in a month. The Journal estimates that customers pocket an extra couple of hundred dollars per month when they lease an EV due to this credit. 4. Funds for border security Trump's immigration policies appear to have garnered support from a majority of the public so far, based on polling. Republicans plan to continue these efforts in the legislative package by allocating over $69 billion to the Department of Homeland Security for various border security initiatives. Most of the funds, roughly $46 billion, would renew construction efforts on Trump's wall on the border of the U.S. and Mexico. This was a heated issue during Trump's first term, and the proposed funds would aim to build 700 miles of "primary" wall and another 900 miles of river barriers, according to the Associated Press. Another $4 billion would be allocated to the hiring of 3,000 new Border Patrol agents. Elsewhere, the Judiciary Committee, which upholds immigration laws, is seeking $110 billion from the package to deport one-million immigrants per year and be able to hold 100,000 people in detention centers. The funds would be used to hire 10,000 more officers for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Judiciary Committee is also looking to charge immigrants fees for certain immigration-related activities such as seeking asylum or sponsoring children coming into the country. The fees would range from $1,000 to $3,500. 5. Cut spending including potential cuts to Medicaid Needless to say, Republicans need to find ways to pay for this bill, especially if tariff rates ultimately come down. Earlier this year, the House tasked The Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, to cut $880 billion in costs over the next decade to help fund the legislative package. Reportedly, they have done just that, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This was considered extremely controversial because many presumed that the only way for the Energy and Commerce Committee to come up with these cuts was to slash hundreds of billions from Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for lower-income Americans. According to the Hill, Democrats acquired some analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which showed the savings would come largely from health provisions and leave 8.6 million Americans without insurance. Additionally, the legislative package calls for more reforms to Medicaid, including more stringent income verification and potential work or volunteer requirements for program participants. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY. 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