Latest news with #BelindaAllen
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Underwhelming': Aussies cautious spenders
Australians' spending improved marginally in April, but it was not the bump many businesses were hoping for following rate cuts, falling inflation and back-to-back long weekends. Household spending rose by 0.1 per cent following a 0.1 per cent fall in March and a 0.2 per cent rise in February, Australia Bureau of Statistics figures show. Much of the spending was on recreational and cultural activities, health and dining out as Aussies took advantage of the long weekends, while spending on clothes, footwear and vehicles fell. Three of the nine spending categories rose in April, led by hotels, cafes and restaurants, up 2.2 per cent, and health, which lifted 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear fell 3.5 per cent. ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing called it a steady result. 'Household spending remained steady in April, with a rise in spending on services being partly offset by a fall in goods spending,' he said. Year-on-year household consumption is up 3.7 per cent, which is effectively flatlining when accounting for population growth. Thursday's household spending was the latest snapshot of the economy following a weaker than expected GDP figure released on Wednesday showing that Australia slipped back into a per capita recession for the March quarter. GDP rose in the March quarter by 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent year-on-year. But that anaemic growth was not enough to keep Australia out of a per capita recession, with the nation going backwards by 0.2 per cent per person. Thursday's household spending data shows a similar story to separate Commonwealth Bank spending figures that show economic activity rose in April on the back of a 'super holiday' period of both Easter and Anzac Day. But even with the lift, Commonwealth Bank senior economist Belinda Allen told NewsWire at the time that spending in the month remained a 'mixed bag' and was 'underwhelming'. 'I think it's going to take time for the interest rate cuts to really see consumers boost spending further,' she said. Australians' consumer confidence remained low, Ms Allen said, leading to less economic activity. 'Households are continuing to save at a higher level than you would expect given the improvements in inflation, the income tax cuts and lower interest rates,' she said. 'I think it's pretty evident there's still a bit of caution out there and certainly a lot of the global news wouldn't help either.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
West Australian
6 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
‘Underwhelming': Aussies remain cautious spenders
Australians' spending improved marginally in April, but it was not the bump many businesses were hoping for following rate cuts, falling inflation and back-to-back long weekends. Household spending rose by 0.1 per cent following a 0.1 per cent fall in March and a 0.2 per cent rise in February, Australia Bureau of Statistics figures show. Much of the spending was on recreational and cultural activities, health and dining out as Aussies took advantage of the long weekends, while spending on clothes, footwear and vehicles fell. Three of the nine spending categories rose in April, led by hotels, cafes and restaurants, up 2.2 per cent, and health, which lifted 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear fell 3.5 per cent. ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing called it a steady result. 'Household spending remained steady in April, with a rise in spending on services being partly offset by a fall in goods spending,' he said. Year-on-year household consumption is up 3.7 per cent, which is effectively flatlining when accounting for population growth. Thursday's household spending was the latest snapshot of the economy following a weaker than expected GDP figure released on Wednesday showing that Australia slipped back into a per capita recession for the March quarter. GDP rose in the March quarter by 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent year-on-year. But that anaemic growth was not enough to keep Australia out of a per capita recession, with the nation going backwards by 0.2 per cent per person. Thursday's household spending data shows a similar story to separate Commonwealth Bank spending figures that show economic activity rose in April on the back of a 'super holiday' period of both Easter and Anzac Day. But even with the lift, Commonwealth Bank senior economist Belinda Allen told NewsWire at the time that spending in the month remained a 'mixed bag' and was 'underwhelming'. 'I think it's going to take time for the interest rate cuts to really see consumers boost spending further,' she said. Australians' consumer confidence remained low, Ms Allen said, leading to less economic activity. 'Households are continuing to save at a higher level than you would expect given the improvements in inflation, the income tax cuts and lower interest rates,' she said. 'I think it's pretty evident there's still a bit of caution out there and certainly a lot of the global news wouldn't help either.'
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ASX shrugs off trade tensions
The Australia sharemarket closed at a three month high thanks to trade talks between the US and China, the Commonwealth Bank hitting a record high and the RBA minutes signalling further rate cuts are coming. The benchmark ASX 200 index gained 52.60 points or 0.63 per cent during Tuesday's trading to close at 8,466.70. The broader All Ordinaries also finished heavily in the green up 53.40 points or 0.62 per cent to 8,690.90. The Australian dollar slumped throughout the trading day, down 0.67 per cent and is now buying 64.53 US cents. On the strongest day of trading so far in June, nine of the 11 sectors finished in the green, led by the big four banks, consumer staples and telecommunication services. CBA shares closed up 1.26 per cent to $178.64, hitting a new record high on Tuesday. The rest of the big four are also trading higher, Westpac shares rose 1.37 per cent to $32.62, NAB shares rallied 1.19 per cent to close at $38.19 and ANZ shares finished heavily in the green up 1.31 per cent to $29.36. Telecommunications businesses were also trading higher. Telstra shares jumped 1.04 per cent to $4.87, while REA group was up 0.35 per cent to $241.13 and Car Group closed in the green up 0.37 per cent to $35.55. It was a mixed day for the major miners with only Fortescue metals trading higher up 0.13 per cent to $15.02. Rio Tinto shares dropped 0.66 per cent to $110.02 and BHP lagged down 0.58 per cent to $37.56. Part of the strong day on the ASX came from the back of potential trade talks between the US and China, with senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said the markets were shrugging off simmering trade tensions. 'Despite the doubling of aluminium and steel tariffs and some spicy rhetoric by the US and China about trade relations, Wall Street erased an early loss to end the session broadly higher,' he said. In other positive news for the ASX, the RBA's minutes of monetary policy was released, with CBA economist Belinda Allen saying it confirms the RBA is taking on a more dovish tone. 'A July rate cut is 'live' given the discussion in the minutes, together with market pricing and RBA economic forecasts conditioned on a terminal rate cut of 3.2 per cent,' she said. 'We continue to expect two more rate cuts this cycle and favour an August and September cut.' In company news, shares in IDP Education plunged after the language testing and student placement company's latest announcement. It says global uncertainty has seen its language test volumes fall 18 to 20 per cent while student placement volumes have slumped 28 to 30 per cent. Treasury Wine Estates rose 0.49 per cent to $8.14 after lowering its guidance and the loss of a key distributor in the US, for its premium wine division. Shares in gambling company PointBet entered a trading halt as it waits to announce the decision of a $353m acquisition of the business by Japanese competitor MIXI. Pizza retailer Domino's shares were also in the red down 2.20 per cent to $21.76 after announcing leadership changes to its Japanese arm to support the 'next phase of its business turnaround'.
West Australian
03-06-2025
- Business
- West Australian
CBA's record high helps drag ASX 200 higher
The Australia sharemarket closed at a three month high thanks to trade talks between the US and China, the Commonwealth Bank hitting a record high and the RBA minutes signalling further rate cuts are coming. The benchmark ASX 200 index gained 52.60 points or 0.63 per cent during Tuesday's trading to close at 8,466.70. The broader All Ordinaries also finished heavily in the green up 53.40 points or 0.62 per cent to 8,690.90. The Australian dollar slumped throughout the trading day, down 0.67 per cent and is now buying 64.53 US cents. On the strongest day of trading so far in June, nine of the 11 sectors finished in the green, led by the big four banks, consumer staples and telecommunication services. CBA shares closed up 1.26 per cent to $178.64, hitting a new record high on Tuesday. The rest of the big four are also trading higher, Westpac shares rose 1.37 per cent to $32.62, NAB shares rallied 1.19 per cent to close at $38.19 and ANZ shares finished heavily in the green up 1.31 per cent to $29.36. Telecommunications businesses were also trading higher. Telstra shares jumped 1.04 per cent to $4.87, while REA group was up 0.35 per cent to $241.13 and Car Group closed in the green up 0.37 per cent to $35.55. It was a mixed day for the major miners with only Fortescue metals trading higher up 0.13 per cent to $15.02. Rio Tinto shares dropped 0.66 per cent to $110.02 and BHP lagged down 0.58 per cent to $37.56. Part of the strong day on the ASX came from the back of potential trade talks between the US and China, with senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said the markets were shrugging off simmering trade tensions. 'Despite the doubling of aluminium and steel tariffs and some spicy rhetoric by the US and China about trade relations, Wall Street erased an early loss to end the session broadly higher,' he said. In other positive news for the ASX, the RBA's minutes of monetary policy was released, with CBA economist Belinda Allen saying it confirms the RBA is taking on a more dovish tone. 'A July rate cut is 'live' given the discussion in the minutes, together with market pricing and RBA economic forecasts conditioned on a terminal rate cut of 3.2 per cent,' she said. 'We continue to expect two more rate cuts this cycle and favour an August and September cut.' In company news, shares in IDP Education plunged after the language testing and student placement company's latest announcement. It says global uncertainty has seen its language test volumes fall 18 to 20 per cent while student placement volumes have slumped 28 to 30 per cent. Treasury Wine Estates rose 0.49 per cent to $8.14 after lowering its guidance and the loss of a key distributor in the US, for its premium wine division. Shares in gambling company PointBet entered a trading halt as it waits to announce the decision of a $353m acquisition of the business by Japanese competitor MIXI. Pizza retailer Domino's shares were also in the red down 2.20 per cent to $21.76 after announcing leadership changes to its Japanese arm to support the 'next phase of its business turnaround'.
News.com.au
15-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Banks quash interest rate frenzy
A shock jump in home loan arrears has failed to stop several banks from quashing expectation of mega rate cuts as frenzy builds ahead of Tuesday's Reserve Bank meeting. The head of the country's biggest bank Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn is among those moving to temper rate cut expectations, after releasing his third quarter 2025 trading update for the period to March 31 which saw profit of $2.6 billion. Mr Comyn expects a 25 bps cut to the cash rate target by the Reserve Bank board on Tuesday - a view reinforced by CBA senior economist Belinda Allen who on Thursday stuck with their call due to the unemployment rate and wages growth coming in within RBA expectations. CBA has also flagged two more cuts over the year for a total 75bp ahead to close 2025 at 3.35pc – almost half the projections of rival National Australia Bank which has pegged a 150bp fall by February next year. The market is virtually 50-50 at this stage on whether RBA will go 50bps, with the ASX rate tracker currently at a 51pc expectation (down from 56pc on May 1) of an interest rate decrease to 3.6pc come Tuesday. That would make it a 50bp cut, similar to the NAB view of the equivalent of a double rate cut on Tuesday. This as CBA, the country's biggest bank, on Wednesday highlighted a rise in its problem loans forcing an impairment expense of $223m during the quarter, with Mr Comyn flagging 'increases in consumer arrears and corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures'. Mr Comyn said in a statement to the stock exchange that 'home loan arrears have increased over the quarter to 0.71pc' – up 5 basis points to sit above its historic average (0.65pc). CBA home loan arrears are back up to the level they were at in March 2019, a year before the pandemic hit, and at a time when cash rate had languished at a low 1.5pc for more than three years. 'We know it has been another challenging period for many Australian households and businesses dealing with cost of living pressures,' Mr Comyn said. 'We have remained focused on proactively engaging with our customers on a range of support options to help those who need it most.' Global investment banker TD Securities has also flagged that the RBA would be 'slow and steady and in no rush' to slash rates this year. An update to clients overnight by Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist, said 'our current forecast is for the RBA to deliver two further 25 bps cuts, in May and in August'. That would bring the cash rate target down to 3.85pc on May 20 and then 3.6pc in August. 'We continue to believe it's highly unlikely the Bank delivers cuts in between (Statement of Monetary Policy) meetings given the outlook for tariffs is nowhere as dire as it was a few weeks back.' The SoMP is released four times a year alongside the February, May, August and November monetary policy decisions of the RBA's monetary policy board. The only other rate cut that TD Securities flagged was a further 25 bps reduction in November, which would bring the cash rate target down to 3.35pc. 'The risk to our call is for the RBA to deliver another 25 bps cut in Nov, but the market is priced for this outcome.' TD Securities believes 'CPI and labour market outcomes have landed close to the Bank's Feb'25 Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts and should support the Bank easing at next week's meeting'. It said inflation had continued to decline steadily. 'With respect to CPI, the Bank has paid more attention to housing inflation and in that respect the outcomes are moving in the right direction for the RBA. The decline in the cost of building a new dwelling has dropped for three straight months now and the annual series has provided a good lead for where trimmed mean CPI is heading. The trend suggests the Bank is on course to hit its 2.5pc target.' It said actual annual rental growth was also slowing. Analysts were keen to see how the RBA board approached the question of risks around tariffs. 'Of particular focus will be the RBA's assessment of the risks around tariffs. There are downside risks to growth, but we see no compelling case for trimmed mean CPI forecasts to deviate from 2.7pc. They could be lowered a smidge, but unlikely as low as 2.5pc.'
