09-05-2025
Geelong's next $1m suburbs, emerging areas revealed
Seven new million dollar suburbs and two with a median house price above $2m would emerge in Geelong as new analysis predicts what home prices could be in 2030.
The PropTrack predictions cements the rise of coastal towns as the region's most expensive areas to buy a home but reserves the pinnacle for the inner west Geelong suburb of Manifold Heights.
The PropTrack modelling uses the past five years' growth in each suburb on the next five years.
Geelong West, Highton, Geelong, Wandana Heights, Portarlington, Ocean Grove and Bannockburn would reach $1m median house prices in 2030, the analysis shows.
Norlane would remain the region's cheapest market for houses, but with a median price of $593,000, while the ripple effect would see suburbs such as Herne Hill, Hamlyn Heights breach $900,000.
Manifold Heights is one of Geelong's smallest suburbs but benefits from proximity to Newtown's college precinct, with a single-dwelling covenant that caps the number of homes.
A $1.26m median house price could balloon to $2.2m by 2030 if the 76 per cent growth trajectory is achieved.
While it's an unlikely outcome, the analysis underlines how renovations, extensions and rebuilds have improved values in the suburb where block sizes are typically bigger.
Buxton, Newtown agent Ben Riddle said a lot of people have capitalised on the growth in Manifold Heights, but a $2m median house price was a 'highly ambitious' target.
He said a few big sales can dramatically skew the suburb, but there are a lot of things going its way, especially the proximity to private schools and shopping.
'We've found that people have been happy to stay in Manifold Heights because the infrastructure between Minerva Rd and Shannon Ave has got a lot better with a lot more offerings,' Mr Riddle said.
'While I feel Geelong has a really good profile and growth is almost assured with interest rates coming down, the rate of growth will be tempered, especially in the next year, by the fact our state government's got heavy levies on property owners.'
The modelling offers more balanced predictions for most suburbs across Geelong as the region ends a boom-and-bust cycle that saw price growth reach unsustainable levels on the back of a Covid exodus from Melbourne before rising interest rates caused a hard correction that leaves the market 11 per cent below the last peak.
Geelong buyers advocate Tony Slack said the fact the data balances rises and falls means most of the predictions were plausible.
'Our market is always slow and steady. It might plateau, then have a slight increase, then plateau. Very rarely are there any troughs – after (the) Pyramid (collapse) maybe, but even through the global financial crisis we didn't see any.'
The modelling reveals moderate growth suburbs may offer more stable opportunities for buyers, including Geelong, Highton and Belmont, the latter two which are Geelong's biggest markets for established houses and where unit values are also rising.
Emerging suburbs that have lower house prices but show significant growth include St Albans Park, Corio and Winchelsea.
PropTrack senior economist Angus Moore said home prices were expected to rise this year on the back of falling interest rates boosting buyers' borrowing capacities.
'However, we're certainly not expecting to see anything like the pace of growth that we saw in 2021 when prices grew incredibly quickly,' he said.
Hayeswinckle director Michelle Winckle said the draw of the Barwon River to families buying in Highton would become more valuable the further Geelong's urban boundaries expanded.
'It's always going to appeal to families. You've got larger blocks, you're close to schools and you're on the side near the Barwon River,' Ms Winckle said.
Buxton Highton agent David Gray said it's wasn't overreach to expect Highton could be a $1m suburb in 2030, and Belmont at $850,000.
'Particularly when you look at some of the more recent results of $1.5m to high $1.8m not just up in the Province estate, but in old Highton.'
A suburb such as St Albans Park often escapes attention because it's an outlying area, but deserves to see strong growth, Mr Slack said.
'There are good, well-built homes, good land, good streets. There is so much to like in St Albans Park – it seems that because it's an outlying suburb it doesn't enter the conversation as much as others.'
What Geelong home values could be in 2030
Suburb Property type Current median sale price 5 year % change Median sale price in 2030
Anglesea House $1,433,000 46% $2,094,000
Armstrong Creek House $650,000 24% $805,000
Bannockburn House $780,000 38% $1,077,000
Barwon Heads House $1,415,000 26% $1,780,000
Bell Park House $611,000 26% $768,000
Bell Post Hill House $663,000 37% $905,000
Belmont House $690,000 23% $850,000
Belmont Unit $545,000 30% $709,000
Charlemont House $620,000 18% $732,000
Clifton Springs House $653,000 32% $862,000
Corio House $490,000 37% $673,000
Curlewis House $645,000 18% $762,000
Drysdale House $743,000 22% $904,000
East Geelong House $763,000 17% $894,000
Geelong House $880,000 25% $1,104,000
Geelong Unit $610,000 15% $702,000
Geelong West House $858,000 24% $1,067,000
Geelong West Unit $430,000 4% $446,000
Grovedale House $672,000 30% $876,000
Grovedale Unit $500,000 20% $600,000
Hamlyn Heights House $709,000 29% $913,000
Hamlyn Heights Unit $510,000 17% $596,000
Herne Hill House $691,000 31% $905,000
Herne Hill Unit $355,000 22% $435,000
Highton House $869,000 24% $1,078,000
Highton Unit $500,000 20% $602,000
Jan Juc House $1,260,000 42% $1,794,000
Lara House $685,000 26% $866,000
Lara Unit $450,000 19% $534,000
Leopold House $655,000 26% $825,000
Lovely Banks House $785,000 18% $929,000
Manifold Heights House $1,260,000 76% $2,213,000
Marshall House $630,000 30% $818,000
Mount Duneed House $703,000 24% $872,000
Newcomb House $550,000 24% $681,000
Newtown House $1,178,000 32% $1,554,000
Newtown Unit $575,000 22% $700,000
Norlane House $456,000 30% $593,000
North Geelong House $620,000 16% $719,000
Ocean Grove House $965,000 37% $1,321,000
Ocean Grove Unit $761,000 21% $919,000
Point Lonsdale House $1,130,000 34% $1,511,000
Portarlington House $853,000 35% $1,149,000
St Albans Park House $585,000 38% $805,000
St Leonards House $720,000 30% $934,000
Thomson House $510,000 24% $632,000
Torquay House $1,190,000 47% $1,750,000
Wandana Heights House $930,000 14% $1,057,000
Waurn Ponds House $780,000 21% $947,000
Whittington House $520,000 33% $693,000
Winchelsea House $650,000 46% $947,000
