Latest news with #BenSnider
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The latest speculative trades raise the risk of a stock market turndown: Goldman Sachs
Investors beware. With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at all-time highs, some on Wall Street are warning that a rise in speculative trades could increase the risk of a market pullback. Goldman Sachs analysts said their Speculative Trading Indicator has risen sharply during the past few months. The gauge now sits at its highest level on record, outside of the 1998-2001 dot-com bubble era and 2020-2021 during COVID, though it still remains well below those peaks. The indicator shows an elevated recent share of trading volumes in unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with rich valuations compared to revenue. Apart from "Magnificent Seven" heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), some of the stocks with the highest trading volumes over the past month include speculative plays like (BBAI), Lucid (LCID), and Plug Power (PLUG). "The recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near-term upside risk for the broad equity market but also increases the risk of an eventual downturn," Goldman's Ben Snider and his team wrote on Thursday. The analysts noted that over the past 35 years, similar spikes in speculative trading often led to stronger-than-usual returns over the next three, six, and 12 months. But those returns faltered over a two-year horizon. Speculative trading has also been accompanied by a sharp short squeeze. That's when investors who bet that a stock will go lower are forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, and that rush to buy drives the stock price even higher. "Like in 2021, the recent short squeeze has occurred alongside an improvement in social media sentiment and a rally in stocks popular with retail traders," the analysts wrote. The recent highfliers in the latest meme-stock rally noted by Wall Streeters — Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Opendoor (OPEN), and Kohl's (KSS) — all have one key thing in common: They are heavily shorted stocks. Since President Trump reversed his broad-based tariff stance on April 9, betting against the market has proven costly, as stocks rebounded in a V-shape recovery. Goldman Sachs analysts also note that call option volumes, or bets that an asset's price will go up, have recently surged. Meanwhile, investor appetite for investments such as initial public offerings (IPOs) has also risen, along with special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). "The median US IPO in June rose by 37% in its first trading day, the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past 3 decades," the analysts wrote. Cloud platform CoreWeave (CRWV) boomed following its IPO in late March. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) is up more than 500% since going public in early June. Crypto firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is up roughly 400% from its public offering price last month. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The latest speculative trades raise the risk of a stock market turndown: Goldman Sachs
Investors beware. With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at all-time highs, some on Wall Street are warning that a rise in speculative trades could increase the risk of a market pullback. Goldman Sachs analysts said their Speculative Trading Indicator has risen sharply during the past few months. The gauge now sits at its highest level on record, outside of the 1998-2001 dot-com bubble era and 2020-2021 during COVID, though it still remains well below those peaks. The indicator shows an elevated recent share of trading volumes in unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with rich valuations compared to revenue. Apart from "Magnificent Seven" heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), some of the stocks with the highest trading volumes over the past month include speculative plays like (BBAI), Lucid (LCID), and Plug Power (PLUG). "The recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near-term upside risk for the broad equity market but also increases the risk of an eventual downturn," Goldman's Ben Snider and his team wrote on Thursday. The analysts noted that over the past 35 years, similar spikes in speculative trading often led to stronger-than-usual returns over the next three, six, and 12 months. But those returns faltered over a two-year horizon. Speculative trading has also been accompanied by a sharp short squeeze. That's when investors who bet that a stock will go lower are forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, and that rush to buy drives the stock price even higher. "Like in 2021, the recent short squeeze has occurred alongside an improvement in social media sentiment and a rally in stocks popular with retail traders," the analysts wrote. The recent highfliers in the latest meme-stock rally noted by Wall Streeters — Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Opendoor (OPEN), and Kohl's (KSS) — all have one key thing in common: They are heavily shorted stocks. Since President Trump reversed his broad-based tariff stance on April 9, betting against the market has proven costly, as stocks rebounded in a V-shape recovery. Goldman Sachs analysts also note that call option volumes, or bets that an asset's price will go up, have recently surged. Meanwhile, investor appetite for investments such as initial public offerings (IPOs) has also risen, along with special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). "The median US IPO in June rose by 37% in its first trading day, the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past 3 decades," the analysts wrote. Cloud platform CoreWeave (CRWV) boomed following its IPO in late March. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) is up more than 500% since going public in early June. Crypto firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is up roughly 400% from its public offering price last month. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices 登入存取你的投資組合
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Finding opportunities in alternative asset managers and a bearish call on the U.S. dollar
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. ET each day.) Investors are looking for opportunities in alternative asset managers and in cybersecurity. One also issued a bearish call on the U.S. dollar due to tariffs. Alternative asset managers Ben Snider of Goldman Sachs sees opportunity in alternative asset managers. "It's a really interesting part of the market, it's a group with high growth, improving prospects and has not participated in this market rally," Snider said about names like Apollo Global , Ares Management , Blackstone and Carlyle . He added: "Post-election about six months ago, there was a lot of enthusiasm about these stocks on the view that higher asset prices and more capital markets activity like IPOs and M & A would boost these stocks. Then of course, all attention turned to tariffs, the market sold off, and these companies fell with it. What's incredible now is that thesis is coming to pass, the S & P is at a record, we are seeing more IPOs and yet these stocks are trading 20% below their prices earlier this year." Tariff impact on the dollar Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman sees bigger declines for the U.S. dollar with trade policy as a continued headwind. "The decline in the dollar here, reflects this loss of confidence in US Trade and perhaps fiscal policy,' said Haddad. "The key issue here is the US protectionist trade policies is an ongoing drag on the dollar." According to calculations from Brown Brothers Harriman, the effective U.S. tariff rate has increased to 18% in 2025 compared to 2% in 2024, something Haddad sees as bearish for the greenback. He added: "You have the ongoing trade war that threatens to accelerate the declining role of the dollar as the primary reserve currency … policies aimed at narrowing the trade deficit means you have less U.S. dollars flowing overseas and there will be less dollars flowing back into U.S. securities." The dollar is coming off its worst first half of a year in over 50 years , and has fallen more than 6% since April 2 when the President announced 'reciprocal tariffs'. The AI and cybersecurity trade Jack Hidary, CEO of Sandbox AQ, sees a growing trend of cybersecurity powered by artificial intelligence. "AI and cyber look for that to be a key trend for the second half of the year as more attacks happen and enterprises need to defend themselves," said Hidary. "The hackers are using AI companies also have to use AI to defend themselves." Cybersecurity stocks represented by the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) , Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) and the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) have outperformed the market year to date and since the April lows.
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Snider: There's still more gains ahead for equities, even with the S&P at all-time highs
Goldman Sachs' Ben Snider discusses the firm's upgrade of its year-end S&P 500 target, and why alternative asset managers could offer investors a prime opportunity for growth in the second half of the year.
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Goldman says hedge funds are buying U.S. tech stocks at fastest pace in a decade
-- U.S. hedge funds have been buying equities for four consecutive weeks, with the last week's long buying in dollar terms being the largest since November, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage desk. Vincent Lin of Goldman Sachs has noted that this trend indicates a heightened willingness by hedge funds to assume idiosyncratic risk. In terms of sectors, 10 out of 11 U.S. sectors witnessed net buying, with the information technology sector leading the pack. This sector witnessed the most significant long buying in over a decade. Fund managers purchased nearly every subsector within tech, with semiconductors and semiconductor equipment leading the way. However, software experienced a modest net selling last week. Last week, hedge funds adjusted their positions by decreasing their holdings in the Magnificent 7 tech stocks while increasing their exposure to China ADRs in the first quarter. Despite the escalating trade tensions at the end of the quarter, hedge funds increased their exposure to China ADRs. The most popular China ADRs among U.S. hedge funds include Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and (NASDAQ:JD). However, this shift in investment strategy did not yield the expected results as the Magnificent 7 stocks returned a positive 12% during the second quarter to date, while trade tensions negatively impacted China ADRs. Despite this, U.S. megacap companies continue to be among the most popular long positions for hedge funds. Ben Snider, leading the team at Goldman Sachs, noted that despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop, U.S. equity long/short hedge funds have managed to maintain a positive return of 1% year-to-date, thanks to strong stock-picking. He also mentioned that the rising short interest has pushed hedge fund gross leverage to a record high. For the first time since the 2021 short squeeze, short interest in the median S&P 500 stock has risen above the long-term historical average, increasing to 2.3% of float from 1.8% in December 2024. In terms of sectors, hedge funds reduced their net exposure to healthcare and increased their holdings in infotech, consumer discretionary, and industrials. Related articles Goldman says hedge funds are buying U.S. tech stocks at fastest pace in a decade BTIG upgrades Doximity saying pullback on macro fears overdone CAE taps Northrop Grumman's Matthew Bromberg as new CEO Sign in to access your portfolio
