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RNZ News
08-08-2025
- Politics
- RNZ News
Six years after referendum, Bougainville's quest for independence still faces roadblocks
Massey University's Anna Powles says Bougainville's independence is an incredibly challenging issue. Photo: BenarNews / Stefan Armbruster As the Papua New Guinea region of Bougainville prepares to elect a new government, front and centre is the issue of independence. There have been plenty of discussions on the matter, most recently when both governments gathered at Burnham in Christchurch. These negotiations come on top of a resounding result in a referendum on independence conducted in Bougainville in 2019. RNZ Pacific spoke with Anna Powles, an associate professor in defence and security studies at Massey University, to get her view on what is going on. (This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) DON WISEMAN: It's coming up to six years since the referendum, and I'm just wondering what sort of progress has been made toward this quest for independence. Has any been made? ANNA POWLES: Well Don, this is an incredibly challenging issue. As you said, we're coming up to the six year anniversary of the referendum, where around 97 percent of Bougainville's population voted for independence. But, as we know, that referendum was not binding and so we now find ourselves in 2025 where Bougainvillean and Papua New Guinean parties met in Burnham army base to work through these issues, and they ultimately came up with the Melanesian Agreement. They signed that in June this year, which really tried to shift the progress forward in terms of trying to seek a solution to an issue which dates back to pre-independence for Papua New Guinea. Photo: Supplied DW: Yes, well, this Melanesian solution that sounds like the solution you have when you haven't got a solution. It doesn't seem to amount to much to me, as an outsider. AP: Well, it was remarkable on a couple of points. Firstly, Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape referred to Burnham as a spiritual home of the Bougainville peace process. And yet, on the other hand, you have the Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama saying very clearly that the independence was non-negotiable, and setting out a number of terms, including the fact that Bougainville was to become independent by the 1st o September 2027. If Papua New Guinea did not ratify that Bougainville would make a unilateral declaration of independence, which is not the first time Bougainville has done that either. In 1990, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) made a unilateral declaration of independence, and similarly, back in the 1960s as well. DW: Yes, and they have a habit of not going very well, these unilateral declarations, in various situations around the world. Do they? They don't work. AP: No, and that's where there is effort, through the joint moderation meeting process, to try and find solutions to the question of Bougainville's political status, either within the broader Papua New Guinean state - you currently have the Autonomous Province. There have been a number of options which have been touted, similar to, for instance, free association like Cook Islands' relationship with New Zealand, for example. But none of these options have really gained a lot of ground at all. DW: And they haven't gained ground because they exclude sovereignty, and that's their critical thing. They want to be able to join the UN and bodies like that, don't they? AP: Exactly. And these talks come on the eve of Bougainville's presidential elections, which take place on the fourth of September this year, less than a month away. The question of Bougainville's future, both its political future, but also its economic future, are issues which are top of mind, very much so, as voters go into this election. What is of concern here is that there are still a lot of outstanding issues within Bougainville itself relating to the Bougainville crisis and the years of conflict. It's very hard to see a potential way forward here, as Papua New Guinea has also been fairly clear in terms of its own position of not letting Bougainville break away fully. DW: Yes, PNG has really not given any ground at all have they, since the beginning of this process? AP: No, and they have concerns, that, and these are long standing concerns, and we've seen a number of different Papua New Guinean Prime Ministers reiterate the concern that if Bougainville was to become fully independent, that that could potentially lead to a cascade of claims by other states, for instance. And that has always been very much at the heart of Papua New Guinea's concern. DW: Now one of the key campaigners for the presidential election, veteran politician Joe Lera, who's been the regional MP in the PNG parliament in the past, he says, on the quest for independence that the current government has been far too strident, and he thinks they've got to take a more conciliatory approach towards Port Moresby, and it sort of makes sense, doesn't it? We have had these dramatic statements coming from Ishmael Toroama at the beginning of the various talks that have been held, laying out where they're going, where they want to go, or where they intend going, before anyone's heard from the other side. It seems like a back to front negotiation tactic. AP: Well, it certainly limits the ability for either side to actually negotiate. Lera has made that comment recently that there is strong support for Bougainville and independence. Very, very strong support. We saw that with the 97.7 percent voter turnout in favor of independence for Bougainville, but that the process itself needs to be rethought through. The process needs to allow for far greater negotiation than we're currently seeing with these declaratory declared positions, as you say from the outset. There's not a lot of wiggle room there to move, and this is where there is some source of frustration around that. So while there's a demographic that Toroama is appealing to, in terms of being very strident on independence, there's still a process that needs to be worked through, and for as long as that I can remember, and there has always been discussion about a Melanesian solution to this issue, but these kinds of declarations are not facilitating that. DW: What do they precisely mean by a Melanesian solution? AP: Well, finding a distinctly Melanesian approach or a Melanesian solution to the issue. Now, what that looks like I'm not sure. There's been various discussions over the years about what that would look like - what it would look like for Bougainville to remain part of Papua New Guinea in a way. But Bougainville is already autonomous, although, key areas like foreign policy, for instance, still fall under Papua New Guinean responsibility. It is unclear what that would potentially look like, but finding a way which is ensuring that the process is peaceful to reach that outcome, and that is going to become increasingly challenging.
RNZ News
22-04-2025
- Politics
- RNZ News
Bougainville takes the initiative in independence mediation
People queue to vote in Bougainville's independence referendum from Papua New Guinea in Buka, the capital of the autonomous region, pictured on 23 November 2019. Photo: BenarNews / Stefan Armbruster In recent weeks, Bougainville has taken the initiative, boldly stating that it expects to be independent by 1 September 2027. It also expects the PNG parliament to quickly ratify the 2019 referendum, in which an overwhelming majority of Bougainvilleans supported independence. In a third move, it established a Constitution Commission and included it within the region's autonomous parliament. To learn more, RNZ Pacific spoke with Australian National University academic Thiago Oppermann, who has spent many years in both Bougainville and PNG. James Marape, second left, and Ishmael Toroama, right, during the joint moderations talks in Port Moresby on Monday. 17 March 2025 Photo: Autonomous Bougainville Government (The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) Don Wiseman: We've had five-and-a-half years since the Bougainville referendum, but very suddenly in the last couple of months, it would seem that Bougainville is picking up pace and trying to really make some progress with this march towards independence, as they see it. Are they overplaying their hand? Thiago Oppermann: I do not believe that they are overplaying their hand. I think that the impression that is apparent of a sudden flurry of activity, arises partly because for the first two years after the referendum, there was a very slow pace. One of the shortcomings of the Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA) was that it did not set out a very clear post-referendum path. That part of the process was not as well designed as the parts leading to the referendum, and that left a great deal of uncertainty as to how to structure negotiations, how things should be conducted, and quite substantial differences in the views of the Papua New Guinean government and the ABG (Autonomous Bougainville Government), as to how the referendum result would be processed further. For instance, how it would it need to be tabled in parliament, what kind of vote would be required for it, would a negotiation between the parties lead to an agreement that then is presented to the parliament, and how would that negotiation work? All these areas, they were not prescriptive, in the BPA. That led to a period of a good two years in which there was very slow process and then attempts to get some some movement. I would say that in that period, the views of the Bougainvilleans and the Papua New Guineans became quite entrenched in quite different camps, and something I think would have to give eventually. Why the Bougainvilleans have moved towards this point now, I think that it bears pointing out that there has been a long process that has been unfolding, for more than two years now, of beginning the organic process of developing a Bougainvillean constitutional process with this constitutional development committees across the island doing a lot of work, and that has now borne fruit, is how I would describe it. It happens at a point where the process has been unblocked by the appointment of Sir Jerry Mataparae, which I think sets a new vigour into the process. It looks now like it's heading towards some form of outcome. And that being the case, the Bougainvilleans have made their position quite clear. Sir Jerry Mateparae, middle, with representatives of the PNG and Bougainville governments at the second moderation in April 2025. Photo: Autonomous Bougainville Government DW: Well, Bougainville, in fact, is saying it will be independent by 1st September 2027. How likely do you think that is? TO: I think there's a question that comes before that. When Bougainville says that they will be independent by such a date, what we need to first consider is that the process of mediation is still unfolding. I think that the first thing to consider is, what would that independence look like, and what scope is there within the mediation for finding some compromise that still suits Papua New Guinea. I think that there's a much greater range of outcomes than people realise within this sort of umbrella of independence, the Bougainvilleans themselves, have moved to a position of understanding independence in much more nuanced terms than previously. You might imagine that in the aftermath of this fairly brutal and bitter civil conflict, the idea of independence at that time was quite a radical cut towards 'full bruk loose' as they say. But the reality is that for many post colonial and new states since World War Two, there are many different kinds of independence and the degree to which there remains a kind of attachment with or relationship with the so called parent colonial country is variable, I should add. I do not want to digress too much, but this concept of the parent colonial country is something that I heard quite a lot of when I was studying the referendum itself. Many people would say that the relationship that they had to Papua New Guinea was not one of enmity or of like running away, it was more a question of there being a parent and Bougainville having now grown up to the point where the child, Bougainville, is ready to go off and set up its own house. Many people thought of it in those terms. Now I think that in concrete terms that can be articulated in many different ways when we think about international law and the status of different sovereign nations around the world. DW: If we can just look at some of the possibilities in terms of the way in which this independence might be interpreted. My understanding is, for Bougainville it's vital that they have a degree of sovereignty that will allow them to join organisations like the United Nations, but they're not necessarily looking to be fully independent of PNG. TO: Yes, I think that there would be like a process underway in Bougainville for understanding what that would look like. There are certainly people who would have a view that is still more firmly towards full independence. And there will be others who understand some type of free association arrangements or something that still retains a closer relationship with Papua New Guinea. I do not think many people have illusions that Bougainville could, for instance, suddenly break loose of the very deep economic connections it has with Papua New Guinea, not only those of government funding, but the commercial connections which are very, very deep. So suddenly making that disappear is not something people believe it's possible. But there are many other options that are on the table. I think what Bougainville is doing by having the announcement of the Independence Day is setting for Papua New Guinea saying, like, 'here is the terms of the debate that we are prepared to consider'. But within that there is still a great deal of giving and taking. DW: Now within the parliament in PNG, I think Bougainville has felt for some time that there hasn't been a great deal of understanding of what Bougainville has been through, or what it is Bougainville is trying to achieve. There's a very different lineup of MPs to what they were at the turn of the century when the Bougainville Peace Agreement was finalised. So what are they thinking, the MPs from other parts of the country? Are they going to be supportive, or are they just thinking about the impact on their own patch? TO: I am not entirely sure what the MPs think, and they are a very diverse bunch of people. The sort of concern I think that many have, certainly more senior ones, that they do not want to be the people in charge when this large chunk of the country secedes. I think that is something that is important, and we do not want to be patronising the Papua New Guineans have a great deal of national pride, and it is not an event of celebration to see what is going on. For many, it is quite a tragic chain of events. I am not entirely sure what the bulk of MPs believes about this. We have conducted some research, which is non randomised, but it is quite large scale, probing attitudes towards Bougainvillean independence in 2022, around the time of the election. What we found, which is quite surprising, is that whilst of course, Bougainville has the highest support for independence of any place in Papua New Guinea, there are substantial numbers of people outside Bougainville that are sympathetic to Bougainvillean independence or sympathetic towards implementing the referendum. I think that would be the wording, I would choose, quite large numbers of people. So, as well as, many people who are very much undecided on the issues. From a Papua New Guinean perspective, the views are much more subtle than you might think are the case. By comparison, if you did a survey in Madrid of how many people support Catalan independence, you would not see figures similar to the ones that we find for Papua New Guinea. DW: Bougainville is due to go to elections later this year. The ABG has stated that it wants this matter sorted, I think, at the time that the election writs are issued sometime in June. Will it be do you think? TO: It's always difficult to predict anything, especially the future. That goes double in Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. I think the reality is that the nature of negotiations here and in Bougainville, there's a great deal of personal connections and toing and froing that will be taking place. It is very hard to fit that onto a clear timeline. I would describe that as perhaps aspirational, but it would be, it would be good. Whether this is, you know, a question of electoral politics within Bougainville, I think there would be, like, a more or less unanimous view in Bougainville that this needs to move forward as soon as possible. But I don't know that a timeline is realistic. The concerns that I would have about this, Don, would be not just about sort of questions of capacity and what happens in the negotiations in Bougainville, but we also need to think about what is happening in Papua New Guinea, and this goes for the entire process. But here, in this case, PNG has its hands full with many other issues as well. There is a set of like LLG [Local Level Government] elections about to happen, so there are a great deal of things for the government to attend to. I wonder how viable it is to come up with a solution in a short time, but they are certainly capable of surprising everybody. DW: The Prime Minister, James Marape, has said on a number of occasions that Bougainville is not economically ready or it hasn't got the security situation under control. And my understanding is that when this was raised at the last meeting, there was quite a lot of giggling going on, because people were comparing what's happened in Bougainville with what's happening around the rest of the country, including in Southern Highlanbds, the province of Mr Marape. TO: I think you know for me when I think about this, because I have worked with Bougainvilleans for a long time, and have worked with Papua New Guineans for a long time as well. The sense that I have is really one of quite sadness and a great missed opportunity. Because if we wind the clock back to 1975, Bougainville declared independence, trying to pre-empt [the establishment of] Papua New Guinea. And that set in train a set of events that drastically reformed the Papua New Guinean Political Constitution. Many of the sort of characteristic institutions we see now in Papua New Guinea, such as provinces, came about partly because of that. That crisis, that first independence crisis, the first secession crisis, was resolved through deep changes to Papua New Guinea and to Bougainville, in which the country was able to grow and move forward. What we see now, though, is this sort of view that Bougainville problems must all be solved in Bougainville, but in fact, many of the problems that are said to be Bougainville problems are Papua New Guinea problems, and that would include issues such as the economic difficulties that Bougainville finds itself in. I mean, there are many ironies with this kind of criticism that Bougainville is not economically viable. One of them being that when Papua New Guinea became independent, it was largely dependent on Bougainville at that time. So Bougainvilleans are aware of this, and don't really welcome that kind of idea. But I think that more deeply there were some really important lessons I believe that could have been learned from the peace process that might have been very useful in other areas of Papua New Guinea, and because Bougainville has been kind of seen as this place apart, virtually as a foreign nation, those lessons have not, unfortunately, filtered back to Papua New Guinea in a way that might have been very helpful for everybody.
