a day ago
France and Germany doomed to stay in unhappy fighter jet marriage
Defence firms have little choice but to accommodate political demands given Europe's next generation fighter jet has been a political project from the start Euractiv is part of the Trust Project Kjeld Neubert Euractiv Aug 20, 2025 06:30 5 min. read Analysis
Based on factual reporting, although it Incorporates the expertise of the author/producer and may offer interpretations and conclusions.
Squabbling over the next-generation FCAS fighter jet project has strained Franco-German relations in recent months, casting doubt on the programme's future.
Yet despite disagreements, neither Paris nor Berlin would be happier if they pulled out of the multi-billion-euro Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme, and doing so would mean no EU-only option for an advanced sixth-generation stealth fighter system, and dampen enthusiasm for cross-EU defence projects.
"Germany and France are at a crossroads where if they decide to invest more they will make the project irreversible," Bertrand de Cordoue, a veteran aerospace industry expert now with the Jacques Delors Institute, told Euractiv.
The project, envisioning a stealth fighter jet accompanied by autonomous drones, embedded in a sophisticated digital combat network, is approaching a major milestone later this year, as it moves from the planning phase towards building a prototype of the fighter jet, the programme's centrepiece. For the industry players involved, that next phase is one of only a few opportunities to renegotiate the project's terms.
But the project has sparked various disagreements, notably over project leadership, but not only.
The most public source of tension has been the unhappy relationship between the two lead aerospace contractors, Dassault Aviation and Airbus Defence, largely forced together by political deals cut in Paris and Berlin. Struggle over FCAS leadership Dassault CEO Éric Trappier has not been shy about pushing for a dominant role. In June, Trappier declared that his company could 'go at it alone' on FCAS.
'We are competitors that have to marry,' Jean-Brice Dumont, the head of air power at Airbus Defence, told journalists shortly afterwards at the Paris Air Show.
Several industry observers and experts told Euractiv that Dassault and Airbus Defence will almost certainly have to work together, even if they would prefer to go their separate ways.
From the very beginning, the effort to build an integrated air combat system has been politically driven. French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany's then-chancellor, Angela Merkel, launched the project in 2017, with Spain joining two years later.
In July, Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reiterated political support for the programme.
Their defence ministers are tasked with a plan to reconcile differences and move the €100 billion project forward by the end of August. France has a history of difficulty with joint European military aircraft projects. The country previously pulled out of the consortiums that developed the Tornado and Eurofighter jets.
But the difficult state of French finances and major budget constraints are now limiting the options for Paris. France "does not have much room to make threats about going it alone", De Cordoue said.
Stuart Dee, a defence economist at RAND Europe, told Euractiv that the cost to restart and develop a sixth-generation fighter from scratch would severely strain the finances of almost any single country.
'Only a very small number of nations globally can fund a programme of this scale independently, hence the original rationale of co-development between partners,' Dee said. Political risks for Merz and Macron Macron, whose final term as president ends in two years, helped launch FCAS and has been perhaps the strongest supporter of European integration and sovereignty on military matters. After having invested political capital in FCAS, the programme's collapse could leave a black mark on his legacy.
'For Macron, the aim is to cement this project before he has to leave office,' de Cordoue stated.
Merz, who took office in May, has also cast himself as a champion of greater European defence cooperation. Losing FCAS would damage Merz's ambitions for Germany to be the EU's top military power.
The Chancellor also touted himself as the man to rebuild Franco-German relations, which had grown frosty under his predecessor, Olaf Scholz – although that courtship has faltered recently. FCAS alternatives? If FCAS does fall apart, the countries could seek to join Europe's other flagship sixth-generation fighter jet project, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), with its Tempest jet.
But that project – a joint effort between the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan – is already underway with a target delivery date of 2035. Any newcomer to the programme would have less influence over the project, and would likely struggle to secure major involvement for domestic defence contractors.
Justin Bronk, air power expert at British defence think-tank RUSI, said the GCAP countries have largely finalised the division of contracts, work and other elements of the programme, making it very difficult to add big industrial players from Germany or elsewhere at this stage.
Dee agreed, adding that such a move 'would need to consider the considerable investment and interests of non-European players such as Japan." Customer is always right Those factors give Germany, France and Spain major incentives to stick with the FCAS programme – and political leaders, not corporate executives, will make the final decisions on how to proceed.
'Whoever pays calls the shots. And in the end, it is the state that pays, not industry,' German MP Christoph Schmid, rapporteur for the German Air Force, told Euractiv. 'That is why I believe that there is still leverage to get industry to cooperate.'
De Cordoue said a similar dynamic exists in Paris: 'The French government has the political power to convince Dassault to carry on with the project, as they did from the beginning.'
Though defence firms may grumble, they depend on government contracts and gain more by accommodating political will than by opposing it.
(bts, cp)
