Latest news with #Biden-to-Trump
Axios
2 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: North Carolina swing voters mostly OK with Trump's LA response
A majority of North Carolina swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups supported President Trump's deportations and activation of the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles, despite some concerns about civil rights and government overreach. The big picture: These Biden-to-Trump voters' desire to eject undocumented migrants from the U.S. — and their critical views of California and Democrats — shape how they see this massive test of executive power playing out far from their own hometowns. Seven of 12 panelists said they support the president's activation of the National Guard and Marines in L.A. despite Gov. Gavin Newsom's and local officials' objections. Three disapproved; two didn't have an opinion. Eight of the 12 said they believe Democrats prioritize illegal immigrants over American citizens. Why it matters: "Democrats who doubt their party remains out of touch with swing voters will be stunned by what these North Carolinians told us about immigration," said Rich Thau, President of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. How it works: Axios observed two Engagious / Sago online focus groups Tuesday night with North Carolinians who said they voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. The panelists included nine independents and three Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: "The stance California has on illegal immigration only enables all these people, and they're not going to stop it," said Gregory D., 43, of Greensboro. "So we need to bring it up another level. It needs to stop. California doesn't want to stop it." "It's in the best interest of the nation that we call this, I don't know, uprising, call it what you want, but yeah, that needs to get nipped in the bud, just like George Floyd and all that sh*t should have," said Alex H., 44, of Charlotte. Butch F., 58, of Mebane, said he believes illegal immigrants got government assistance that reduced North Carolinians' access to disaster funds. Gerius J., 33, of Charlotte, said he's for diversity but wants to "do it the right way. Get the right paperwork, the right documentation." He said Democrats "have always wanted illegals to come here," and if anyone objects, "you're the bad guy. And as a U.S. citizen, I'm not the bad guy. I just want things to be done the right way." The other side: Karen L., 61, of Wilmington, said of Trump's immigration actions, "When he first started out, it seemed like he was really going after the criminals — like, the ones committing murder and rape — and he was getting all of them. And we don't want them here if they're [here] illegally, especially. But now ... it's way too extreme, and he's violating civil rights, and he's causing more chaos than anything." Rachid O., 46, of Raleigh, said the administration should prioritize arresting and deporting criminals, above all undocumented immigrants. Many undocumented immigrants pay taxes "so they contribute to the country," he said. Between the lines: Shifting the focus to combating illegal immigration may help him with some voters who have cooled on his performance in other areas. Several panelists voiced concerns about the economy, tariffs and political corruption and objected to Trump's moves to cut university research, or possible Medicaid cuts in the spending and tax-cut bill before Congress. "It's getting harder and harder to afford things," said Kimberly S., 37, of Sanford. "We are just kind of told, 'Hey, you just got to bear with us just a little bit more,' and it doesn't feel like it's getting any easier." Shauna S., 54, of Harrisburg, said when it comes to tariffs, "There's no plan, and it's been erratic. It appears to be an opportunity to manipulate the markets, and I really want someone to investigate where and who's actually gaining financially every time these tariffs are being threatened and then removed. I'm just curious what's really happening."
Axios
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Axios
Focus groups: Pennsylvania swing voters aren't sold on Shapiro
Gov. Josh Shapiro may have a perception problem among some Pennsylvania swing voters, recent Engagious/Sago focus groups suggest. Why it matters: Some analysts have floated Shapiro as a possible presidential contender in 2028, but political observers warn that he must first decisively win reelection next year. A poor showing, especially among independent and right-leaning voters that Democrats need to retake the White House, could complicate Shapiro's chances to rally national support if he chooses to run. Driving the news: Most comments about Shapiro in the recent focus groups were critical, with only two of the 13 Biden-to-Trump voters who participated supporting a potential Shapiro presidential run in 2028. And some of the swing voters expressed inaccurate views about Shapiro's policy stances and the positions he's held in state government. Case in point: One voter, a 61-year-old from Havertown, incorrectly stated that Shapiro was lieutenant governor during the COVID-19 pandemic. He blamed Shapiro, who was attorney general at the time, for being directly involved in imposing strict business closures when then-Gov. Tom Wolf was the one ordering the shutdowns. Another voter claimed Shapiro supported the "defund the police" movement, when he has pushed for increased funding to recruit more officers. Between the lines: The two recent Engagious / Sago online focus groups, which Axios sat in on, involved 13 Pennsylvanians who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Six identified as Republicans, three as Democrats and four as independents. Many were from Philly and surrounding areas that tend to lean liberal, Randall Miller, St. Joe's professor emeritus and political commentator, tells Axios. The focus groups were conducted earlier this month, before the arson attack at the Pennsylvania governor's mansion while Shapiro and his family were inside. Although a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What else they're saying: One voter felt Shapiro took action that suppressed free speech on Pennsylvania college campuses. Shapiro, who's been outspoken against antisemitism, had denounced universities for failing to guarantee the safety of students during pro-Palestinian protests last year. "I don't like any candidates that take any action to limit free speech on college campuses," Anna D., 32, of Northampton, said during the panels. Stephanie S., a 40-year-old from Ambler who supports a 2028 Shapiro bid, felt the current governor has always "been a champion" of Pennsylvania. "He just feels like somebody who really has the state at heart." Others said they didn't think he had done anything notable since helping to get I-95 fixed in less than two weeks in 2023. Context: Shapiro was among a group of Democratic leaders who sued the Trump administration this month for halting federal pandemic relief money from the state's schools. Shapiro also filed suit against Trump in February over the freezing of $1.2 billion in federal funds. Plus, Shapiro has been fighting against the president's new tariffs and meeting with Pennsylvania businesses to better understand their impacts. The bottom line: "Shapiro is back to facing the perpetual question posed by skeptical voters: 'What have you done for me lately?'" said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups.
Axios
11-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Focus groups: Pennsylvania swing voters voice tariff confusion
Most Pennsylvania swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups stuck by President Trump through this week's drama over tariffs and the stock market, but say he must better explain his strategy and how long Americans should prepare for pain. Why it matters: Just two of these 13 Biden-to-Trump voters said Trump has made a good case for tariffs since he returned to the White House; 11 said he hasn't articulated enough or that they aren't sure of the end game. Many are prepared to put up with months of strain if it makes the country safer, brings jobs back to the U.S. or helps their long-term finances — but they want a clearer understanding of what will happen and why. The day after the focus groups, amid severe reactions from the markets, CEOs and some of his political allies, Trump announced a three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs — while escalating rates on China. Driving the news: Six of the 13 supported and one opposed Trump's "Liberation Day" rollout and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners, while the other six said they didn't know enough to formulate an opinion. Frank W., 61, of Havertown, said he'd assumed Trump's tariffs would only be a "negotiation tactic" with other nations. "I didn't think we were going to have tariffs for the foreseeable future years from now." He said the president should go beyond talking points and "explain it to the guy that's going to be paying more for cereal or vegetables or, whatever, a car ... He says, 'Oh, more money's coming in. We'll curb fentanyl. We'll bring manufacturing back.' Manufacturing doesn't happen overnight." The big picture: Nine of 13 said they approve of Trump's job performance overall, but eight of 13 said they're more anxious about the state of the economy since Trump returned to the White House. Four who backed him in November but now disapprove of his performance cited layoffs, threats to free speech, U.S. funding for Israel in the war in Gaza, and, as Joe L., 44, of Coatesville, put it, "I feel like there's more taken away than given right now." Between the lines: One recurring theme in the panels was swing voters gave Trump credit for taking lots of action in his first three months, even if they didn't agree with some of those actions or his moves were legally challenged, rescinded or revised. I think we needed a change and we weren't heading in a very good direction before," said Fred K., 57, of Norristown. Asked if things are moving in a good direction now, he said, "I don't know, but at least we're heading somewhere." Jen M., 53, of Havertown, said she's divided 60-40 about whether she approves of Trump's performance. "I'm really only slightly leaning towards the approval, and it's — he's a man of action. That's why I approve of him." What they're saying:"They are anxious about the tariffs but giving him the benefit of the doubt," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. "There are concerns about higher prices. There are concerns about investments. "Most of these swing voters continue to support him because they want long-ignored problems finally addressed" and feel that "things have been so screwed up for so long and he's finally doing something about it." Still, eight of 13 said Trump is trying too much at once and should prioritize his goals. "I think the anxiety for me is just not being able to pinpoint anything because — and not understanding the plan because — it's just too many moving parts," said Akia B., 23, of Philadelphia. How it works: These 13 Pennsylvania voters, who backed Trump in November after supporting Joe Biden in 2020, participated in two online panels conducted April 8. Six are Republicans, four independents and three Democrats. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. The intrigue: Nine of the 13 said they do not support legislation that would require tariffs to get approval from Congress to last beyond 60 days. "I don't think Congress could vote to turn a light bulb on and off in under 60 days," said Dennis H., 65, of Downingtown. "They're the quicksand that's dragged us down for years." What we're watching: None said they're more concerned about Social Security's future since Trump retook office. But they disagreed with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik's construct that only fraudsters would complain if their benefits were delayed.
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Even Trump Voters Fear the Tariffs
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TANKING the U.S. economy, Donald Trump abruptly reversed himself by announcing on Truth Social that he would pause most tariffs for 90 days. MAGA dutifully celebrated the art of the deal. Here's Howard Lutnick bragging about how he had the honor of witnessing Trump's humiliating 180 'one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency.' This comes after days of Marco Rubio, JD Vance, Scott Bessent, and others defending Trump's tariffs, explaining why, actually, trade wars are good for the economy. Here's a helpful side-by-side, just to give you a look at the level of hypocrisy we're talking about with these people. Shame, shame, shame. No one is covering Trump 2.0 like The Bulwark—and our prices won't rise because of tariffs. To join our community and get our members-only newsletters, podcasts, and live events, become a Bulwark+ member. BUT THERE'S SOMETHING MORE IMPORTANT than schadenfreude going on here: Americans are going to feel the effects of Trump's tariff adventure, no matter what. Backing down does not undo the damage that's been done. Other countries—particularly our closest democratic allies—now know they cannot take the United States to be a reliable partner in matters of global trade. They're not going to snap back to a pre–trade war equilibrium, just because Trump has decided to reverse course for the moment.1 Today's market won't measure the long-term damage Trump has done to the U.S. economy by destroying global trust in America that took generations to build. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney put it: 'The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over. It's clear the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner.' Voters understand this fundamental shift, too. I talk to voters in focus groups every week—lately, mostly Biden-to-Trump voters. Lots of them switched to Trump primarily for economic reasons. For many, it was their first time ever voting Republican. Something you hear over and over from these people is the idea that Donald Trump is a great businessman and a dealmaker. And despite all the crazy of his first term, they appreciated that the pre-COVID economy was booming. During the 2024 campaign, they wanted to go back to that. This is the core of the Trump myth. It was his superpower during a campaign that centered on prices and inflation. It's also his core vulnerability in his second term, now that he's decided to blow up the U.S. economy. THERE'S BEEN A SLOW BUILD-UP of concern in the focus groups about the tariffs and how the trade war will affect people's bottom lines: 'The tariffs I don't get, and it kind of concerns me a little bit,' said Steve, a Biden-to-Trump voter from Georgia. 'But I'm hoping it will make sense shortly. Right now, it just kinda doesn't to me.' 'I am, too, a little scared about the tariffs, because the stock market has plunged a few times,' said Sylvia, a Biden-to-Trump voter from Michigan. 'I'm glad I just bought a newer car in December because the prices are all up right now. I'm still a little worried.' She went on: 'I got an oil change . . . it cost me $10 more. Why I voted for Trump was for the prices to come down at the grocery store. Nothing's come down. That's why I voted for Trump. . . . So it really hits me in the gut.' When we asked a recent group of nine Trump 2024 voters whether they were in favor of the tariffs, fewer than half raised their hands. Maybe Trump's reversal puts all these concerns to bed. But maybe not. If you're an average person who took a flyer on Trump, and you look at prices spiking, growth stalling, stocks plummeting—are you feeling confident in what you're seeing just because the president put out a Truth? Share DEMOCRATS SHOULD EXPLOIT THIS OPPORTUNITY. People are scared and vulnerable, and the president is actively doing violence to the economy. Democrats should point this out, relentlessly. Or at least they should not get in Trump's way as he makes it clear that all of this chaos is his doing. Right now, this administration is delivering real, negative consequences for people in a way that is personal, and can be felt in their day-to-day lives. It's Democrats' job to make sure they know who's to blame. Trump pausing the tariffs makes this less of a slam-dunk case for Democrats in the immediate term. Especially now that he can point to the pause to deflect blame for rising prices, or take credit for market gains (after having tanked the market in the first place). But they should stay on offense. Talk about how his blustering incompetence started this mess, and how his feckless attempt to get out of it is too little, too late. And whatever Democrats do, stop actively giving him cover. Trump might have bought his administration some time by reversing course. Or he may have further undermined voters' confidence that he has any idea what he's doing. Share 1 This also happens to be true in regard to our security commitments. The global world order that the United States has built and maintained for generations required trust and confidence in our leadership and commitment to the project. Trump has destroyed that trust and confidence.
Atlantic
04-03-2025
- Business
- Atlantic
The Trump Voters Who Are Losing Patience
Some of the president's own voters are ready to blame him if their lives don't improve soon. Illustration by The Atlantic. Source: Getty. March 4, 2025, 4:45 PM ET Donald Trump is president because, in the broadest possible sense, voters were unhappy with the direction of the country and wanted a change. The question now is whether what we're seeing in Washington reflects the change they wanted. Since January, I've conducted regular focus groups with voters across the political spectrum, asking them about Trump's performance. Some patterns are starting to emerge. First: Lots of Trump voters believe they're getting exactly what they signed up for—DOGE, disruption, someone shaking up Washington. But Trump didn't win with his base alone. Another significant group contributed to his margin of victory: people who voted for him because the change they wanted wasn't systemic disruption but relief from the high cost of living they've been experiencing since the COVID lockdowns ended. Read: The Trump backers who have buyer's remorse Voters in this group tend to be 'soft' partisans or nonpartisan. They don't follow politics closely and vote mostly based on things that affect their day-to-day lives—grocery and gas prices, rent, inflation. Many of these voters in the focus groups are showing signs that they do not believe that Trump's policy priorities are about cheaper groceries. Instead, they see him getting distracted by culture-war issues that won't actually improve their lives. In his first term, a significant number of voters felt that Trump was a bad person who was good at managing the economy, which gave them a mixed view of him. But the past decade has functioned like exposure therapy for Trump: Many people have become desensitized to his character defects, so that what remains is the vague sense that 'Trump = good economy.' These voters no longer look at his social-media posts, and they don't read past headlines as they scroll. So his bad character—which hasn't gone away—no longer registers. But voters in this group are noticing that the job they elected him to do—fix the economy—is not getting done. ' I would like to see him do a little bit more for the economy … because that was one of the platforms that he did run on, that he was going to help the economy,' Holly, a 2020 and 2024 Trump voter from Maine, said in a late-February focus group. (To protect participants' privacy, we do not identify them by their last name.) 'You know, we haven't really seen that. My grocery prices are still the same, if not higher, than they were.' 'I wanted a lot of change as far as inflation and the price of everything,' Sharli, a Biden-to-Trump voter from Georgia, said in another focus group last month. 'So I haven't seen any real changes there. As a matter of fact, I think for me, things are worse, as far as the inflation.' 'I just worry about the tariffs making everything cost more. Looks like we might have to take some more pain before it gets better, as far as inflation,' Bobby, a two-time Trump voter from Texas, said. ' The first month has definitely been chaotic from what I've seen,' said Steven, a young 2024 Trump voter from New York. 'For the general public, the first thing that we noticed were the prices on the eggs, and the memes going around talking about how getting somebody an egg is a delicacy now.' From where these people sit, Trump doesn't look like he's making much progress on fixing the economy. If anything, as Bobby suggested, the new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could hurt U.S. consumers. And the inflation rate has ticked up since late last year. For these voters, what Trump seems to be doing instead are a bunch of crazy things that make his administration look distracted, chaotic, and ineffective. Things such as gutting the Federal Aviation Administration; firing—and quickly rehiring—nuclear scientists; installing an anti-vaccine conspiracist to steward America's health systems; letting an unelected MAGA billionaire dismantle the federal government. Now, it's true that die-hard Trump fans love this stuff. They're here for the liberal tears, and I'm confident that Trump will keep his sky-high approval ratings with the Republican base. But among voters who don't identify as hard partisans, some are confused and downright worried about what's happening. These are not members of the resistance. They're all people who voted for Trump—many of them for the first time. ' Firing the FAA director and then having, like, five plane crashes within a matter of, like, two weeks is literally insane,' a first-time Trump voter named Zackery said, referring to a pressure campaign that ended in the former FAA chief's resignation in January. 'Firing the people who handle nuclear weapons, and then realizing who you fired, and then having to be like, 'Hey, hey, hey, don't go, we need you' … Like, that's crazy.' Hal, a young Trump 2024 voter from New Jersey, said: ' I'm not a huge fan of some claims that RFK has been making without any necessarily scientific backing or evidence.' Bobby, the two-time Trump voter from Texas, said: ' As far as renaming the Gulf, stuff like that, or buying [Greenland] … I don't know. It's just kind of nonsense to me.' Focus groups, of course, capture only part of the picture. But polls, too, are already showing a decline in Trump's approval numbers, and discontent with Trump on the economy. A recent Reuters poll had him at 44 percent approval, down from 47 percent in January. Quinnipiac showed his disapproval rising from 43 percent to 49 percent over his first month. A Washington Post /Ipsos poll found that only 43 percent of Americans support his first-month policies, and that 53 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy. Put the focus groups and the polling together and you start to understand the broader political environment: Some of Trump's own voters are ready to blame him—just as they did former President Joe Biden—if their lives don't improve, and soon. The next plane that goes down, the next elimination of an essential government function, the next kid who dies of measles—the administration will own all that. Read: The Trump supporters who didn't take him at his word The fan service Trump is doing for his base doesn't get him anywhere with the people on the margins who helped put him in the White House, and who will determine the makeup of Congress in two years. Fixing what people think is wrong with the economy requires governing, something Trump has proved constitutionally incapable of doing. As we keep slogging through our daily politics, don't be surprised to see Trump's numbers continue to drop. If that happens, the focus groups suggest that it won't be because these voters gain any new appreciation for Democrats. It'll be because Trump keeps shedding his own marginal supporters. Presidents' honeymoons tend to end in the summer of their first year. Biden's ended during the Afghanistan pullout; Trump's approval rating took a nosedive after Charlottesville; voters grew more critical of Barack Obama as the financial crisis lengthened. Perhaps summer is coming early for Trump this year.
