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Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Top MAGA pollster warns Republicans will lose the majority for ‘the next decade' if Trump gets involved in Israel-Iran
A top MAGA pollster has warned that the Republicans may lose the majority in Congress 'for the next decade' if President Donald Trump gets the U.S. more closely embroiled in the Israel-Iran conflict. Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris took to X on Monday to argue that 'Starting new foreign wars never helps a presidency. But it sure as Hell can end one, especially one predicated on not starting new wars overseas when we've been invaded and neglected at home.' 'The MAGA movement was never anti-war for the sake of being anti-war,' he added. 'It was a position stemming from the lies the ruling class used to get us involved in pointless wars. Israel needing to attack Iran 'preemptively' because nuclear capabilities are imminent, is a lie.' 'Kiss the Republican majority goodbye... For the next decade. If he pulls the trigger, it's all over for MAGA,' said Baris. A poll conducted by the Ronald Reagan Institute before Israel began its bombardment of Iran's military and nuclear program on Friday found that a majority of Republicans back Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. At the same time, polling also shows that Americans are concerned about the U.S. being pulled into a military conflict in the region. Last year, Quinnipiac University found that 86 percent of GOP voters were worried about the prospect, with 52 percent describing their views as 'very concerned.' However, there is a divide among influential people supportive of the president, with some advocating for a strong response and others arguing that Trump voters supported him because he pledged not to get the U.S. involved in any more conflicts. Trump demanded an 'unconditional surrender' from Iran on Tuesday as he issued a thinly veiled threat that he may take aim at Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers,' the president said on Truth Social. 'Our patience is wearing thin.' On Monday night, speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said he was looking for a 'real end' to the hostilities. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," said the president. "They should have done the deal. I told them, do the deal. So I don't know. I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate." "We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," he told ABC News on Sunday. On Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the U.S. isn't set to strike Iran. Northeastern University political science professor Costas Panagopoulos told Newsweek that Trump could 'take a colossal hit' in backing from his own base of support if the U.S. takes direct action in a Middle East conflict. "Such action would represent the antithesis of how Trump has branded himself," said Panagopoulos. "It could be the straw that breaks MAGA's back."
Newsweek
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Trump's Most Favorable Pollster Warns It Could Be 'All Over for MAGA'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's most favorable pollster has warned that it could be "all over for MAGA" if the president gets the United States more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. "Kiss the Republican majority goodbye... For the next decade," Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "If he pulls the trigger, it's all over for MAGA." Newsweek reached out to Baris for further comment via the Big Data Poll website. Big Data Poll has given Trump the highest approval rating (+19) of any pollster in his second term so far. It is one of just two pollsters that are yet to record a negative approval rating, although its most recent survey recorded a major drop-off in approval, giving Trump a rating of just +1. Why It Matters A recent poll by the Ronald Reagan Institute, conducted before Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran's military and nuclear program on Friday, shows that a majority of Republicans support Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. However, polling has also shown that Republican voters are worried about the U.S. being drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East. A Quinnipiac University poll last year found that 86 percent of Republican voters were concerned about it, with 52 percent saying they were "very concerned." Meanwhile, MAGA figures in recent days have been split on the issue, with some advocating for a strong response and others arguing that Trump's supporters backed him because of his promise not to draw the U.S. into expensive foreign wars. President Donald Trump departs Air Force One after arriving at Joint Base Andrews on June 17, 2025. President Donald Trump departs Air Force One after arriving at Joint Base Andrews on June 17, To Know Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday night that he was seeking a "real end" to the conflict. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," he said. "They should have done the deal. I told them, do the deal. So I don't know. I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate." Trump told ABC News on Sunday that "it's possible" the U.S. becomes involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled on Monday that the U.S. does not plan to strike Iran ahead of Trump's meeting with his national security staff in the Situation Room at the White House on Tuesday. Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that Trump would likely "take a colossal hit" in support from his base if he were to engage the U.S. directly in a conflict in the Middle East. "Such action would represent the antithesis of how Trump has branded himself," he said. "It could be the straw that breaks MAGA's back." While some MAGA Republicans have slammed calls for the U.S. to become militarily involved in the conflict, others have backed a strong response to Iran. "Everyone is finding out who are real America First/MAGA and who were fake and just said it bc it was popular," Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, wrote in a lengthy post on X on Sunday. "Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA. Wishing for murder of innocent people is disgusting. We are sick and tired of foreign wars. All of them." Her spokesperson, Alec Ernst, told Newsweek that "real MAGA is unified" and there was "no daylight between her and the president." Mark Levin, a conservative media figure and Trump ally, criticized Greene's position and has been vocal in supporting military action against Iran. "Real MAGA, that is Trump voters, overwhelmingly support destroying the Iranian Nazi regime," he wrote on X on Tuesday. The conflict began with Friday's surprise Israeli attack on Iran's military and nuclear program. Israel said its assault on Iran's top military leaders, uranium enrichment sites and nuclear scientists is necessary to prevent its longtime foe from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon. Israel's strikes have killed at least 224 people since Friday. Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people in Israel have been killed and more than 500 injured. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful. The U.S. and others had recently assessed that Tehran had not had an organized effort to pursue a nuclear weapon since 2003. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so. What People Are Saying Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: "There is no appetite for war in the American public. Trump, who has built himself up as a master dealmaker and who has argued only he could avert war and the kinds of embroilments for which he criticized Biden and others, would likely take a colossal hit in support with his base if he engages the U.S. directly in a Middle East conflict. "Such action represent the complete opposite of how Trump has branded himself. This may be the straw that breaks MAGA's back." President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday that "it's possible" the U.S. becomes involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. "We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved." The White House said in a news release on Tuesday that Trump "has never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon—a pledge he has made repeatedly, both in office and on the campaign trail." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News' Jesse Watters on Monday: "[Trump's] position has not changed. What you're watching in real time is peace through strength and America first. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that's what happens here. "And America first means we're going to defend American personnel and American interests. So when you see jets and you see air defense assets and counter-UAS assets, that's because my job as the Secretary of Defense is to ensure that our people are safe and that we're strong." Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, on X: "I don't want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed. I don't want to see Ukraine bombed or Russia bombed. And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!! We are $36+ TRILLION in debt and have mountains of our own problems." Representative Thomas Massie, a Trump ally, on X over the weekend: "This is not our war. We should not engage our military here. Furthermore, doing so would require a vote of Congress." What Happens Next Talks between the U.S. and Iran were canceled over the weekend. On Sunday, Tehran said that Iran would stop its strikes if Israel did the same. On Monday, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to make a veiled outreach for the U.S. to step in and negotiate an end to hostilities between Israel and Iran. This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.
Newsweek
08-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Most Favorable Poll Notes Collapse in Approval Rating
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump's approval rating has declined, according to a new poll. While Trump's net approval rating is slightly positive at 0.6, there has been a sharp decline in the percentage of those who said they approved of the president, Big Data Poll showed. Why It Matters Trump recently adopted policies that have split opinions, including implementing then pausing tariffs on trading partners and signing a flurry of wide-ranging executive orders. Negative polling could affect Trump's reputation, bolster his opposition or persuade him to change his policies. President Donald Trump speaks before David Perdue is sworn in as U.S. Ambassador to China during a ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House on May 7, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump speaks before David Perdue is sworn in as U.S. Ambassador to China during a ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House on May 7, 2025, in Washington. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein What To Know The May 5 poll found that 48 percent approve of Trump, while 47.4 percent disapprove. In January, when Trump embarked on his second term in the White House, 55.5 percent approved while 37.4 percent disapproved for a +18 net favorability rating. The May poll was of 3,128 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The January poll was of 2,969 registered voters and had the same margin of error. It comes amid a torrent of negative polling about Trump. A Navigator Research poll conducted April 24-28 found that Trump's net approval on the economy had dropped to -16, with just 40 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving. Meanwhile, according to a TIPP Insights poll conducted between April 30 and May 2 among 1,400 adults, Trump's approval rating among conservative voters has dropped from 77 percent in early April to 72 percent. However, other polls have suggested that Trump's approval rating has rebounded, with a Newsweek poll tracker showing that while it is net negative, the percentage of those who disapprove of the president has decreased since last week. The Big Data Poll also found that 52.9 percent of Hispanic voters, a group that was key to Trump's election victory in November, still approve of the president. In January, 53 percent approved of Trump. What People Are Saying William F. Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, told Newsweek: "President Trump's current poll numbers as indicated recently by Big Data analyses, are reflecting a significant degree of volatility and fluctuation, especially since his re-election and re-assumption of the presidency in January 2025. "President Trump's performance with the economy is struggling and under intense scrutiny and will have to rebound, rather sooner than later, if either his favorability or approval ratings are to survive further even decline." Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris: "This dramatic of a decline is not entirely surprisingly given our last quarterly survey measured President Trump during the honeymoon phase of his second term. But all honeymoons come to an end, and it's safe to say this one has, as well. "Party loyalty has a habit of regaining strength and concerns replace optimism." President Donald Trump, on Truth Social: "TRUMP'S BEST POLL NUMBERS, EVER. THANK YOU!" though did not say which poll he was referring to. What Happens Next Sustained negative polling could impact the Republican Party's performance in the midterms in November 2026.
