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Free Malaysia Today
a day ago
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
Sabah Umno at weakest point, faces critical juncture, says analyst
Losing the 17th Sabah election will leave Umno in a tough spot to recover support ahead of GE16, said academic Bilcher Bala. PETALING JAYA : Sabah Umno is at its weakest point in its history and faces a critical juncture in the upcoming 17th state election, says a political analyst. Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah pointed to the statement by the state chapter's information chief, Suhaimi Nasir, that the state polls would determine whether Sabah Umno 'lives or dies'. Bilcher said that since losing dominance after the 2018 general election and exiting the state government two years ago, Sabah Umno has lost more than 2,000 grassroot leaders, leaving it at its weakest position to date. 'This state election isn't a normal political contest. It's set to test the people's belief in Umno's ability to regain its past prominence. 'Sabah used to be an Umno stronghold, and losing this state election would mean losing further political ground, which will be tough to recover ahead of the 16th general election (GE16),' he told FMT. On Friday, Suhaimi said the state election would be a 'life or death' battle for Sabah Umno as it would determine how the contests for parliamentary seats in GE16 play out. While the party currently holds seven of the 30 parliamentary seats in Sabah, the Libaran MP said forming the state government would enable Umno to win at least five more parliamentary seats in GE16. However, Bilcher said Suhaimi's 'life or death' remark could also be interpreted as aiming to stir the emotions of Sabah Umno's grassroots to unite the machinery and mobilise support. 'The reality is much more complex. The results of the polls will depend on the candidates, local issues, and the dynamic cooperation of political parties,' he said. On the other hand, Universiti Teknologi Mara's Tony Paridi Bagang believes that Umno would not face its end in Sabah so easily, given its long history in the state. He said the upcoming state election was more of a test of whether the party can return to dominance or not. 'While Sabah Barisan Nasional has reasons to be confident, it cannot be so sure because Sabah politics is so fluid,' he said. Tony said that even if Sabah Umno fails to form the next state government, it could still serve as a constructive opposition party to regain the people's confidence. 'As a national party that has been in the seat of government for nearly 61 years, Umno is experienced enough to record a comeback if it loses this state election,' he said.
Free Malaysia Today
03-08-2025
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
GRS better positioned to win multi-cornered fights, say analysts
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, composed of local parties, is seen as being more aligned with Sabah-centric sentiments, especially in rural and semi-urban areas. (Bernama pic) PETALING JAYA : The ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, with a broader base of support across the state, is better positioned to win seats in the coming Sabah state election, where multi-cornered contests are likely to feature. Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah said the coalition, composed of local parties, also benefits from incumbency, giving it a slight edge over rivals, particularly Barisan Nasional. 'GRS has a strong local presence and is seen as more aligned with Sabah-centric sentiments, especially in rural and semi-urban areas,' he told FMT. On Tuesday, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi reaffirmed BN's alliance with Pakatan Harapan for the Sabah state election, calling the pact 'locked in' based on a federal-level agreement. Bilcher Bala. However, he also acknowledged that PH has ongoing electoral cooperation with GRS, suggesting that GRS and BN are likely to clash in the upcoming polls. Bilcher said PH appears to be strategically positioning itself to play the role of kingmaker if no coalition secures a clear majority, especially if neither BN nor GRS wins an outright majority. He said that PH, by maintaining ties with both BN and GRS, ensures it remains central to any post-election government formation regardless of which bloc prevails. However, Bilcher expressed scepticism that GRS, BN, and PH could work together in government, citing significant differences between GRS and BN. He also dismissed the likelihood of a last-minute alliance between the two, especially after Sabah BN chief Bung Moktar Radin ruled out such a possibility. 'A last-minute alliance is technically possible, but it would require a dramatic shift in tone and trust, which could become a political time bomb if forced,' he said. Oh Ei Sun. Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said the current arrangement stems from compromise as there is pressure for PH and BN to cooperate. However, Lee Kuok Tiung, also of UMS, poured cold water on the possibility of a last-minute GRS-BN collaboration, saying a clash between the two is 'inevitable'. Lee Kuok Tiung. Lee also agreed that GRS is the most likely to win in multi-cornered contests, with former Perikatan Nasional component parties such as the Sabah Progressive Party and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku now under the GRS banner, further strengthening its support base. The growing pro-local party sentiment, and rising feelings against national parties, must be acknowledged by state political leaders. The current state assembly's five-year term expires on Nov 11 unless it is dissolved earlier to make way for fresh elections.
Free Malaysia Today
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
Salleh's ‘friendly contest' proposal tactical, says analyst
Universiti Malaysia Sabah's Bilcher Bala says Sabah Umno treasurer Salleh Said Keruak's proposal appears aimed at discouraging the emergence of proxy independent candidates. PETALING JAYA : Sabah Umno treasurer Salleh Said Keruak's call for parties to allow its candidates to engage in 'friendly contests' with each other at the state's upcoming polls is aimed at reducing internal friction among coalitions, according to an analyst. Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah said the former chief minister's call for a 'planned, respectful arrangement' may be a tactical effort to defuse tensions, manage internal competition, and prevent conflicts within the Barisan Nasional-Pakatan Harapan (BN-PH) alliance at state level. Bilcher Bala. 'The understanding (is) that whoever wins, the seat remains part of the coalition,' Salleh had said in a recent Facebook post. Bilcher said that while the strategy is intended to maintain internal unity within the BN-PH alliance, 'it does not explicitly suggest that BN-PH will go separately from GRS.' He said that GRS could benefit if Salleh's proposal is implemented. 'For GRS, this approach could reduce tensions and ensure that the (proposed BN-PH-GRS) coalition remains strong and united, which is crucial for winning seats and forming a stable government,' said Bilcher. However, he cautioned that public perception must be managed properly. 'Voters might appreciate the effort to reduce internal conflicts and present a united front, but they could also be sceptical about the effectiveness of such arrangements. 'The key will be clear communication and transparency to ensure voters understand the rationale behind the friendly contests,' he said. Lee Kuok Tiung. Another analyst, Lee Kuok Tiung, however, voiced his concerns. He acknowledged that the arrangement could work, 'depending on whether leaders can reach an understanding.' However, he said, it could disadvantage those who have consistently attacked GRS and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), and open them up to 'counter-attacks'.
Free Malaysia Today
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
One test down for Hajiji but another on the horizon, says analyst
Universiti Malaysia Sabah analyst Bilcher Bala said each party in Gabungan Rakyat Sabah will have its own aspirations and demands. (Bernama pic) PETALING JAYA : While Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman Hajiji Noor has passed one test on managing tensions among the coalition's components over their standing in the upcoming state polls, more challenges await, an analyst says. Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) said the ability to manage a tense situation hinged on several factors including charisma, communication skills, and the ability to instil confidence. 'Developing trust and loyalty (among the components) is also vital,' he told FMT. However, he said Hajiji would still have to face the 'complicated' seat negotiations process which would require the eight components to agree on the 73 state seats up for grabs. This would be more so if GRS joined forces with Pakatan Harapan or Barisan Nasional (BN), he added. GRS comprises Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah, Parti Bersatu Sabah, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), the Sabah Progressive Party, Usno, Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah, the Liberal Democratic Party, and Parti Cinta Sabah. 'Each party will have its own aspirations and demands, so Hajiji will have to ensure a fair and strategic distribution to avoid discontent which could threaten unity in the coalition,' Bilcher said. Yesterday, Hajiji announced that the GRS component parties had pledged their collective commitment to winning the next Sabah election for the state ruling coalition. Hajiji, the Sabah chief minister, said he appreciated the trust shown by the party leaders during the three-hour meeting. The meeting followed remarks by GRS deputy chief Jeffrey Kitingan, who said on Monday that the coalition must improve the way it operates. This was after Usno president Pandikar Amin Mulia said his party had been ignored by some GRS leaders after demanding seats to contest in the state polls. Kitingan, the STAR president, said every GRS component party had the right to be treated with respect, whether or not they held seats in the state assembly. He also proposed that GRS's Supreme Council hold regular meetings to address Pandikar's concerns. Fellow UMS analyst Romzi Ationg however said that the spat was only the beginning of GRS's problems. 'Media reports make it seem like all is well, but for me, it is just the beginning,' he said. 'What if Hajiji is forced to work with parties that are disliked by the other components?' He added that several GRS components were eyeing state seats, including that of Bengkoka which was won by BN in the last state election, and Bandau, which is currently represented by Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat.
Daily Express
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Express
One test down for Hajiji but another on the horizon, says analyst
Published on: Friday, May 09, 2025 Published on: Fri, May 09, 2025 By: Nora Mahpar, FMT Text Size: Universiti Malaysia Sabah analyst Bilcher Bala said each party in Gabungan Rakyat Sabah will have its own aspirations and demands. (Bernama pic) PETALING JAYA: While Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman Hajiji Noor has passed one test on managing tensions among the coalition's components over their standing in the upcoming state polls, more challenges await, an analyst says. Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) said the ability to manage a tense situation hinged on several factors including charisma, communication skills, and the ability to instil confidence. 'Developing trust and loyalty (among the components) is also vital,' he told FMT. However, he said Hajiji would still have to face the 'complicated' seat negotiations process which would require the eight components to agree on the 73 state seats up for grabs. This would be more so if GRS joined forces with Pakatan Harapan or Barisan Nasional (BN), he added. GRS comprises Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah, Parti Bersatu Sabah, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), the Sabah Progressive Party, Usno, Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah, the Liberal Democratic Party, and Parti Cinta Sabah. 'Each party will have its own aspirations and demands, so Hajiji will have to ensure a fair and strategic distribution to avoid discontent which could threaten unity in the coalition,' Bilcher said. Yesterday, Hajiji announced that the GRS component parties had pledged their collective commitment to winning the next Sabah election for the state ruling coalition. Hajiji, the Sabah chief minister, said he appreciated the trust shown by the party leaders during the three-hour meeting. The meeting followed remarks by GRS deputy chief Jeffrey Kitingan, who said on Monday that the coalition must improve the way it operates. This was after Usno president Pandikar Amin Mulia said his party had been ignored by some GRS leaders after demanding seats to contest in the state polls. Kitingan, the STAR president, said every GRS component party had the right to be treated with respect, whether or not they held seats in the state assembly. He also proposed that GRS's Supreme Council hold regular meetings to address Pandikar's concerns. Fellow UMS analyst Romzi Ationg however said that the spat was only the beginning of GRS's problems. 'Media reports make it seem like all is well, but for me, it is just the beginning,' he said. 'What if Hajiji is forced to work with parties that are disliked by the other components?' He added that several GRS components were eyeing state seats, including that of Bengkoka which was won by BN in the last state election, and Bandau, which is currently represented by Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat. * Follow us on Instagram and join our Telegram and/or WhatsApp channel(s) for the latest news you don't want to miss. * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia
