Latest news with #BleakleyFinancialGroup
CNBC
9 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran
The U.S. joining the war between Israel and Iran might seem like a geopolitical flashpoint that would send markets tumbling. Instead, investors are largely shrugging off the escalation, with many strategists believing the conflict to be contained — and even bullish for some risk assets. As of 1 p.m. Singapore time, the MSCI World index, which tracks over a thousand large and mid-cap companies from 23 developed markets, declined only 0.12%. Safe havens are also trading mixed, with the Japanese yen weakening 0.64% against the dollar, while spot gold prices slipped 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.35%. In general, the market reactions after the U.S. strikes have been less aggressive, especially relative to just over a week ago when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. "The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat now gone for the region," said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush, adding that he sees minimal risks of the Iran-Israel conflict spreading to the rest of the region and consequently more "isolated." While the gravity of the latest developments should not be dismissed, they are not seen as a systemic risk to global markets, other industry experts echoed. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States had attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Traders are now keeping a close eye on any potential countermeasures from Iran following the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran's foreign minister warned that his country reserved "all options" to defend its sovereignty. According to Iranian state media, the country's parliament has also approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal waterway for global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products traversing through it each day. "It all depends on how Iran responds," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. "If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires… then this could be the end of the conflict and markets will be fine," he told CNBC. Boockvar is not of the view that Iran will carry out the disruption of global oil supplies. The worst-case scenario for markets would occur if Iran were to close the Strait, which is unlikely, said Marko Papic, chief strategist at GeoMacro Strategy. "If they do, oil prices go north of $100, fear and panic take over, stocks go down ~10% minimum, and investors rush to safe havens," he said. However, markets are subdued now given the "limited tools" that Tehran has at its disposal to retaliate, Papic added. The idea of shutting down the Hormuz waterway has been a recurring rhetoric from Iran, but it has never been acted upon, with experts highlighting that it is improbable. In 2018, Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Similar threats were made earlier in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials — including then-Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi — said the waterway could be closed if Western nations imposed more sanctions on Iran's oil exports due to its nuclear activities. "Tehran understands that, if they were to close the Strait, the retaliation from the U.S. would be swift, punitive, and brutal," Papic added. In a similar vein, Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni said the latest events have not shaken his conviction in the U.S. bull market."Geopolitically, we think that Trump has just reestablished America's military deterrence capabilities, thus increasing the credibility of his 'peace through strength' mantra," he said, adding that he is targeting 6,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025. While predicting geopolitical developments in the Middle East is a "treacherous exercise," Yardeni believes that the region is in for a "radical transformation" now that Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The U.S.-China detente could ‘save Christmas,' but expect ‘a rush of ordering the likes we've never seen before,' economist says
Freight bookings jumped the day after the U.S. lowered tariffs on China to 30%. Industry pros say it's the start of a 90-day scramble as importers rush to bring goods and components into the U.S. The U.S. and China have entered a 90-day detente in their tariff war , which means one thing for the roughly 40% of U.S. businesses that source from China: It's time to stock up. 'You are going to see a rush of ordering over the next 90 days the likes we've never seen before,' said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, in a note that began, 'So, both sides luckily decided to save Christmas.' Prior to the announcement, shipments from China to the U.S. had fallen for five weeks straight, according to data from supply-chain tracker Project44. Volumes were down 30% from May 2024. Now, the tariff reduction presents a chance to stock up. To be sure, a 30% import tax on goods from China is historically high and prohibitive for many shippers, with some industry experts warning 'we are not out of the woods yet.' But for many businesses that have seen shipments dry up, paying a certain 30% now is less nerve-racking than holding out for a possible future drop. 'In addition to clearing inventory held back by the previous 145% tariff, many importers may choose to front-load shipments to avoid future uncertainty,' Project44 wrote in a blog post. Already, some indicators show freight reviving. 'Our ocean freight bookings from China to [the] US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal,' Ryan Petersen, CEO of supply-chain platform Flexport, posted on X. 'A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.' In the first few months of the year, importers pulled forward huge volumes of shipments from China to try to get ahead of tariffs. Imports hit record numbers—so much so that they skewed first-quarter GDP, flipping it into reverse. But shipments fell off in later months; at the same time, consumers stocked up on goods to front-run future price increases. That's put inventories at very low levels, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. 'Inventory levels are by and large quite thin,' Bostjancic told Fortune. 'You're getting less coming in through the ships, but also because consumers went out and purchased a lot—there's been a surge of consumer spending ahead of these tariff increases.' Still, it will take time for the surge to be felt. A container ship leaving China will need roughly three weeks to arrive in Los Angeles. Eric Fullerton, VP of product marketing at Project44, expects to see the data start to shift within a few days. 'You'll probably have to call your carriers, network, the ocean liners–Maersk, and say, 'we now want to move this freight which has been hanging out at this warehouse or distribution center in China,'' he said. While some importers have had goods waiting in a warehouse in China for this very moment, others will need to put in orders with factories. 'Between ordering a product, making it, putting it on a ship, getting it here, everyone doing it at the same time—you're going to have to believe there will be delays in production—90 days goes pretty fast,' Boockvar told Fortune, adding that the unpredictable nature of tariff negotiations are an added impetus for companies to move fast. 'What happens if we're 45 days in and negotiations aren't going well, and Trump wakes up and says, 'if this doesn't change, I'm going to reinstate the tariffs?'' he said. 'While there's a 90 day reprieve, it doesn't mean that people will take their time.' The net effect, according to Fullerton, will be like 'rush hour.' 'Well, everyone left at 5—so there's more demand,' he said. Importers will have different strategies for beating the crunch, he said: Some will likely wait out the initial 30-day surge and the shipping cost; others will accept surge pricing; still others will likely ship via air, which is much more costly than boat. 'The number-one nightmare for these companies,' he said, 'is not cost but empty shelves. That's the post-COVID fear that still impacts supply chain professionals today.' He added, 'they're terrified of empty shelves so they'll pay to mitigate that.' This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
13-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the Federal Reserve will react to recent CPI data, what Fed cuts could do to bonds, and much more.
CNBC
13-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Mag 7 dominance is over, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the Federal Reserve will react to recent CPI data, what Fed cuts could do to bonds, and much more.
Wall Street Journal
13-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Here's Why Markets Are Shrugging Off the CPI Report
Today's inflation report was a positive one for Wall Street—but professional investors say it is too soon to gauge how President Trump's trade policy has impacted prices. 'Bottom line, this was a good inflation report,' Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, wrote in a morning note. 'But this does not really capture yet the response to tariffs.' Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Dallas-based Regan Capital, put it this way: 'Until tariffs are reduced to zero, inflation will present itself and creep into consumer prices and eventually interest rates…The administration is merely trying to tiptoe back into the arena of 'do no harm' for the foreseeable future and to let the market do its thing.' 'Not only is the April CPI report unlikely to have fully captured the tariff impact post-Liberation Day, but inflation numbers will now be further whipsawed by the US/China trade truce announcement,' wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. 'The implication is that a clear read on the inflation trend won't be visible for several months yet. This prolonged inflation uncertainty likely implies a prolonged Fed pause.' Other money managers were taking the good news in stride: 'And just like that, the markets' twin fears—a tariff-induced recession and sticky inflation—have been greatly assuaged,' said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, N.C., in morning comments. 'In the short run, markets should love this data and continue yesterday's (China-trade) celebration.'
