Mag 7 dominance is over, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the Federal Reserve will react to recent CPI data, what Fed cuts could do to bonds, and much more.
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The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Trust deficit: Global markets are losing faith in the US
It's the calm before a potential economic storm — or perhaps the eye of one already underway. In May, the U.S. Consumer Price Index crept up by just 2.4 percent year-on-year — a whisper above April's 2.3 percent, and still underwhelming by market standards. At a glance, this points to inflation being contained, despite a combustible backdrop of tariffs, rate suspense and fiscal brinkmanship. But beneath the surface lies an unsettling truth: The U.S. economy is running on fumes, buoyed more by residual momentum than by real strength, and hurtling toward a period of growing instability. To be fair, the U.S. economy has demonstrated a remarkable resilience in recent years, outpacing global peers despite pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical quagmires, and a revolving door of policy recalibrations. But as JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon dryly observed this month, 'there's a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon.' Coming from one of Wall Street's most seasoned navigators, the warning carries more than the usual weight. Indeed, the apparent calm may be the prelude to a tempest. Tariffs — President Trump's preferred weapon of economic coercion — have yet to fully work their way into the consumer price chain. Many retailers are still working off inventories imported before the latest round of levies, offering a deceptive sense of stability. But by the second half of 2025, those buffers will run dry. With tariff negotiations stalled and a 90-day moratorium on reciprocal duties set to expire in July, the prospect of sharper price hikes looms large. This is more than a pocketbook problem. Tariffs, by design, distort markets. They disrupt supply chains, elevate input costs and dampen consumer sentiment. While intended to reassert U.S. leverage in global trade, their cumulative effect is to fuel inflationary pressures without necessarily fostering domestic competitiveness. If anything, they obscure more than they resolve — a trait they share with the broader economic narrative of the moment. Compounding the confusion is the Federal Reserve's policy schizophrenia. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious 'wait-and-see' posture reflects institutional hesitancy in the face of murky indicators. Yet some voices within the Fed whisper of a possible rate cut by September if growth falters. Wall Street, predictably, is attempting to front-run the signal, betting on monetary easing to offset fiscal tightening. But here, too, lies danger. The U.S. dollar — long the gravitational center of the global financial system — is under pressure from multiple vectors. Morgan Stanley projects a 9 percent drop in the dollar index over the next year. This erosion of confidence isn't simply about interest rates. The structural underpinnings of the dollar's supremacy are being chipped away. With U.S. interest payments breaching the $1 trillion mark in 2024 and financial sanctions now a regular instrument of Washington's foreign policy, global investors are beginning to hedge their bets. Central banks from Asia to Africa have accelerated their gold purchases, signaling a flight to safety and a hedge against greenback depreciation. Meanwhile, regional currencies — once content to orbit the dollar — are beginning to attract speculative attention. If the dollar slides further, we may witness not just portfolio adjustments but tectonic shifts in the architecture of global trade and capital flows. The administration, caught between Trumpian belligerence and market pragmatism, appears paralyzed. It continues to pursue trade talks with Japan and Malaysia, yet major fissures remain. No amount of performative diplomacy can conceal the fact that the U.S. economic playbook is looking increasingly reactive. The uncoordinated layering of tariffs, stimulus withdrawal, and monetary indecision is creating a combustible cocktail with potentially global consequences. And yet, the most revealing metric may not be inflation or interest rates, but trust — or the lack thereof. Businesses do not invest in uncertainty. Households do not spend freely when prices are volatile. Global markets do not function smoothly when their anchor currency is drifting. What we are witnessing is less a conventional downturn and more a slow-motion unmooring — an erosion of confidence in the coherence of U.S. economic stewardship. There is still time to course-correct. Tariff escalation could be paused, or better yet, reversed. A clear and credible monetary policy trajectory could reassure markets. Fiscal discipline could be restored through bipartisan cooperation — though that last item, admittedly, veers into the realm of fantasy. In the meantime, forecasts diverge wildly. Some analysts predict modest U.S. growth of 1.8 percent to 2.2 percent for 2025 — a soft landing, if inflation remains under control. But with expectations of inflation creeping up to 3 percent by year's end, that landing may be harder than anticipated. The paradox is striking: America, with all its institutional heft and financial firepower, is navigating an increasingly precarious path — one defined not by immediate crisis, but by a slow drip of dysfunction. Whether it's tariffs sabotaging supply chains, monetary policy second-guessing itself, or a dollar drifting without a compass, the signs are accumulating. And they point toward a future where the biggest threat to U.S. economic stability isn't foreign competition or external shocks — it's strategic incoherence from within. In the end, inflation may be the least of the worries. Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master's degree in international relations.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver, oil prices trim gains as Wall Street weighs Iran's next move
US stocks wavered on Monday as oil prices eased and investors assessed Iran's next move after the US entered the Middle East conflict by striking its nuclear sites. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also slipped 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) dropped 0.1% Stocks climbed into positive territory after Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman expressed support for a rate cut "as soon" as July, becoming the second central bank policymaker to be that explicit in recent days about an easing of monetary policy in the near term. Stocks started the session in red territory on the heels of President Trump's decision to join Israel's attacks on Iran on Saturday. Investors are on edge over a shock surge in energy prices if Iran blocks the key Strait of Hormuz waterway, as that would have repercussions for economies worldwide. Trump said late Saturday that the US had struck Iran's three main nuclear enrichment facilities, saying the sites had been "totally obliterated" — a claim that has since been questioned. He threatened Iran with more attacks if the country did not quickly seek peace talks. The focus now is on Iran's next step — both militarily and diplomatically. Its foreign minister on Sunday said it reserves "all options," while its parliament has reportedly voted to block the Strait of Hormuz — though Iran's leaders have yet to make a final decision. After the bombings, oil futures surged over 4% amid jitters about disruption to energy supplies. That spike unwound somewhat early Monday morning, amid skepticism that Iran will follow through on its threat. Brent crude (BZ=F) futures traded above $76 a barrel while WTI crude futures (CL=F) hovered near $73. Elsewhere in markets, gold (GC=F) ticked higher, also switching course amid wavering haven demand. Google's artificial intelligence model is set to drive $4.2 billion in subscription revenue within its Google Cloud segment in 2025, according to an analysis from Bank of America on Monday. That includes $3.1 billion in revenue from subscribers to Google's AI plans with its Google One service, Bank of America's Justin Post estimates. Post also expects that the integration of Google's Gemini AI features within its Workspace service will drive $1.1 billion of the $7.7 billion in revenue he projects for that segment in 2025. 'We believe Google has moved beyond the catch-up phase in the LLM [large language model] race, with Gemini now comparing favorably with leading peer models from OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Meta,' Post wrote, saying that AI is a 'major growth driver for Google Cloud.' But, Post added, 'While the revenue opportunity is growing with subscriptions, Google will likely see a significant deterioration of market share relative to its ~90% share of search revenues.' At the same time, Alphabet is set to spend $75 billion on AI investments in 2025. 'If revenue growth doesn't keep pace with rising Capex, higher spending could weigh on free cash flow and margin projections,' Post wrote. He holds a Buy rating and $200 price target on Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) shares. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Claire Boston reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. President Trump called for lower energy prices as he posted on social media on Monday: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!" He also wrote,"To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!" Oil futures fell more than 1% on Monday after spiking more than 5% on Sunday night as traders assessed whether Iran would close off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil products flow. Strategy (MSTR) stock fell as much as 3% on Monday morning after the Michael Saylor-helmed firm announced another bitcoin purchase. The software firm turned crypto giant said in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that it bought $26 million worth of bitcoin between June 16 and June 22. As of Monday's filing, Strategy has spent nearly $42 billion to acquire over 592,000 bitcoins since 2020. Over that time frame, the stock has soared more than 2,800% relative to the S&P 500's 78% gain. Strategy shares pared initial losses shortly after the market opened and are down less than 1%. At the same time, Strategy is facing two new lawsuits from investors — one filed in May, the second last week — over its bitcoin strategy. The lawsuits allege that the company misled investors about how its bitcoin strategy would affect its profits and its stock price, given the cryptocurrency's volatility. Tesla stock (TSLA) rose 5% in early trading Monday after its robotaxi launch kicked off on Sunday in Austin, Texas. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports that several users on X claimed they were able to hail and ride some of the 10-20 Tesla Model Y vehicles available, which featured "Robotaxi" graphics on the sides of the cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced the rollout on X earlier in the day, saying that customers will pay a flat $4.20 fee. Only select invited Tesla users were invited to test the robotaxi service, as it begins to scale to take on industry leader Waymo (GOOG, GOOGL). Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote in a note: 'We took two approximately 15 minute rides around Austin and the key takeaways are that it was a comfortable, safe, and personalized experience.' Read more here. US stocks wavered on Monday as oil trimmed gains and supply worries eased over Iran's possible retaliatory move following US strikes on the country's nuclear facilities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell slightly while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell slightly. OIl futures were little changed after spiking more than 5% on Sunday night as traders assessed whether Iran would close off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil products flow. Trump Media & Technology (DJT) stock rose 4% before the market opened Monday morning after the company announced a $400 million stock buyback. Shares of the company — in which President Trump is the majority stakeholder — have fallen roughly 48% in 2025. Stock buybacks, a common practice that faces a fair share of criticism, reduce the amount of a company's common shares in the public market and, hence, boost its earnings per share even if its profits don't rise. Trump Media said the buybacks 'would be funded separately from, and would not alter, Trump Media's previously announced Bitcoin treasury strategy.' The company is aiming to create a bitcoin treasury to hold the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet and announced a $2.5 billion private funding round to fund the initiative in May. Trump Media is part of a wave of firms following in the footsteps of crypto tycoon Michael Saylor's company, Strategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock soar by buying up bitcoin. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday that he expects cybersecurity stocks to be in focus following the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Ives wrote that 'cyber security stocks in particular [are] set to be front and center this week as investors anticipate some cyber attacks from Iran could be on the horizon as retaliation.' 'On the cyber security sector, our favorite names remain Palo Alto (PANW), Cyberark (CYBR), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), and Checkpoint (CHKP)." The stocks traded roughly flat premarket on Monday. Defense stocks were modestly higher Monday during premarket trading after the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Palantir (PLTR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) rose less than 1%, while RTX (RTX) climbed 1.3%. Palantir supplies AI-fueled defense tech to Israel, which has prompted blowback from former employees and protesters. The other three companies supply weapons to Israel through their contracts with the US government. The defense stocks had jumped immediately after Israel's first airstrikes on Iran on June 12, but only RTX has sustained notable gains of 4% since those strikes. Lockheed Martin is up 0.3% over that time frame, while Northrop Grumman is roughly flat (up 0.1%). Palantir has risen 1.6%. Jefferies (JEF) analyst Mohit Kumar wrote Monday, 'Market is now waiting to see how Iran reacts …However, we are not fully convinced around the market's sanguine reaction.' 'Defence has been one area that we have been bullish on, and we continue to maintain our overweight exposure,' he added. 'NATO countries have moved to increase defense spending with a long term goal of taking to 5% of GDP. We are typically skeptical of long term goals as goal posts do change, but it is also clear to us that defense spending needs to increase globally and not just for NATO countries.' Energy stocks rose alongside rising oil prices in premarket trading on Monday while overall stock futures wobbled. Those with oil production in the US and outside the Middle East caught a bid as investors weighed the possibility of further disruption to the oil supply following the US strikes on Iran. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) advanced 0.6% and has risen 6% in the past month. Here's a look at how trending energy stocks are trading this morning: View more trending tickers here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Economic data: Chicago Fed activity index (February); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US services PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US Composite PMI (March preliminary) Earnings: FactSet (FDS), KB Home (KBH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Trump just made the Fed's rate call even more complicated Opinion: Trump wages 2 wars — one with trade partners, one with Iran Why Iran could hold off blocking the Strait of Hormuz Oil erases spike in gains in wait for Iran's response Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical selloffs tend to fade fast Analysts react as markets brace for Iran's next move Dollar advances as investors brace for Iran response to US attacks BNY Mellon approached Northern Trust for merger: WSJ Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Tesla (TSLA) stock rose over 1% in premarket trading after rolling out its driverless taxi service to riders on Sunday. The debut of the robotaxi was introduced to a handful of riders, which included retail investors and social-media influencers in Tesla's hometown of Austin. Wolfspeed (WOLF) stock fell 11% in premarket trading on Monday after announcing it plans to file for bankruptcy in the US under a new restructuring agreement with its creditors. The agreement would provide fresh financing and slash debt by nearly 70%. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) shares rose 4% before the bell after a report from The Wall Street Journal said that Bank of New York Mellon Corp had reached out to the asset and wealth manager and expressed interest in a merger. Most investors will awaken today searching online for "Strait of Hormuz" after the weekend attacks from the US on Iran. For speed of analysis purposes, if this key oil shipping hub closes down (seems like it won't happen, based on everything I am seeing this morning), it could really send oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices skyrocketing. Here's what Goldman's team estimates: "If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down 10% for another 11 months, we estimate that Brent would briefly jump to a peak of around $110." Read more here on Goldman's scenarios. Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oil prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Google's artificial intelligence model is set to drive $4.2 billion in subscription revenue within its Google Cloud segment in 2025, according to an analysis from Bank of America on Monday. That includes $3.1 billion in revenue from subscribers to Google's AI plans with its Google One service, Bank of America's Justin Post estimates. Post also expects that the integration of Google's Gemini AI features within its Workspace service will drive $1.1 billion of the $7.7 billion in revenue he projects for that segment in 2025. 'We believe Google has moved beyond the catch-up phase in the LLM [large language model] race, with Gemini now comparing favorably with leading peer models from OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Meta,' Post wrote, saying that AI is a 'major growth driver for Google Cloud.' But, Post added, 'While the revenue opportunity is growing with subscriptions, Google will likely see a significant deterioration of market share relative to its ~90% share of search revenues.' At the same time, Alphabet is set to spend $75 billion on AI investments in 2025. 'If revenue growth doesn't keep pace with rising Capex, higher spending could weigh on free cash flow and margin projections,' Post wrote. He holds a Buy rating and $200 price target on Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) shares. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Claire Boston reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. President Trump called for lower energy prices as he posted on social media on Monday: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!" He also wrote,"To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!" Oil futures fell more than 1% on Monday after spiking more than 5% on Sunday night as traders assessed whether Iran would close off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil products flow. Strategy (MSTR) stock fell as much as 3% on Monday morning after the Michael Saylor-helmed firm announced another bitcoin purchase. The software firm turned crypto giant said in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that it bought $26 million worth of bitcoin between June 16 and June 22. As of Monday's filing, Strategy has spent nearly $42 billion to acquire over 592,000 bitcoins since 2020. Over that time frame, the stock has soared more than 2,800% relative to the S&P 500's 78% gain. Strategy shares pared initial losses shortly after the market opened and are down less than 1%. At the same time, Strategy is facing two new lawsuits from investors — one filed in May, the second last week — over its bitcoin strategy. The lawsuits allege that the company misled investors about how its bitcoin strategy would affect its profits and its stock price, given the cryptocurrency's volatility. Tesla stock (TSLA) rose 5% in early trading Monday after its robotaxi launch kicked off on Sunday in Austin, Texas. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports that several users on X claimed they were able to hail and ride some of the 10-20 Tesla Model Y vehicles available, which featured "Robotaxi" graphics on the sides of the cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced the rollout on X earlier in the day, saying that customers will pay a flat $4.20 fee. Only select invited Tesla users were invited to test the robotaxi service, as it begins to scale to take on industry leader Waymo (GOOG, GOOGL). Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote in a note: 'We took two approximately 15 minute rides around Austin and the key takeaways are that it was a comfortable, safe, and personalized experience.' Read more here. US stocks wavered on Monday as oil trimmed gains and supply worries eased over Iran's possible retaliatory move following US strikes on the country's nuclear facilities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell slightly while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell slightly. OIl futures were little changed after spiking more than 5% on Sunday night as traders assessed whether Iran would close off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil products flow. Trump Media & Technology (DJT) stock rose 4% before the market opened Monday morning after the company announced a $400 million stock buyback. Shares of the company — in which President Trump is the majority stakeholder — have fallen roughly 48% in 2025. Stock buybacks, a common practice that faces a fair share of criticism, reduce the amount of a company's common shares in the public market and, hence, boost its earnings per share even if its profits don't rise. Trump Media said the buybacks 'would be funded separately from, and would not alter, Trump Media's previously announced Bitcoin treasury strategy.' The company is aiming to create a bitcoin treasury to hold the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet and announced a $2.5 billion private funding round to fund the initiative in May. Trump Media is part of a wave of firms following in the footsteps of crypto tycoon Michael Saylor's company, Strategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock soar by buying up bitcoin. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday that he expects cybersecurity stocks to be in focus following the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Ives wrote that 'cyber security stocks in particular [are] set to be front and center this week as investors anticipate some cyber attacks from Iran could be on the horizon as retaliation.' 'On the cyber security sector, our favorite names remain Palo Alto (PANW), Cyberark (CYBR), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), and Checkpoint (CHKP)." The stocks traded roughly flat premarket on Monday. Defense stocks were modestly higher Monday during premarket trading after the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Palantir (PLTR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) rose less than 1%, while RTX (RTX) climbed 1.3%. Palantir supplies AI-fueled defense tech to Israel, which has prompted blowback from former employees and protesters. The other three companies supply weapons to Israel through their contracts with the US government. The defense stocks had jumped immediately after Israel's first airstrikes on Iran on June 12, but only RTX has sustained notable gains of 4% since those strikes. Lockheed Martin is up 0.3% over that time frame, while Northrop Grumman is roughly flat (up 0.1%). Palantir has risen 1.6%. Jefferies (JEF) analyst Mohit Kumar wrote Monday, 'Market is now waiting to see how Iran reacts …However, we are not fully convinced around the market's sanguine reaction.' 'Defence has been one area that we have been bullish on, and we continue to maintain our overweight exposure,' he added. 'NATO countries have moved to increase defense spending with a long term goal of taking to 5% of GDP. We are typically skeptical of long term goals as goal posts do change, but it is also clear to us that defense spending needs to increase globally and not just for NATO countries.' Energy stocks rose alongside rising oil prices in premarket trading on Monday while overall stock futures wobbled. Those with oil production in the US and outside the Middle East caught a bid as investors weighed the possibility of further disruption to the oil supply following the US strikes on Iran. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) advanced 0.6% and has risen 6% in the past month. Here's a look at how trending energy stocks are trading this morning: View more trending tickers here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Economic data: Chicago Fed activity index (February); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US services PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US Composite PMI (March preliminary) Earnings: FactSet (FDS), KB Home (KBH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Trump just made the Fed's rate call even more complicated Opinion: Trump wages 2 wars — one with trade partners, one with Iran Why Iran could hold off blocking the Strait of Hormuz Oil erases spike in gains in wait for Iran's response Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical selloffs tend to fade fast Analysts react as markets brace for Iran's next move Dollar advances as investors brace for Iran response to US attacks BNY Mellon approached Northern Trust for merger: WSJ Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Tesla (TSLA) stock rose over 1% in premarket trading after rolling out its driverless taxi service to riders on Sunday. The debut of the robotaxi was introduced to a handful of riders, which included retail investors and social-media influencers in Tesla's hometown of Austin. Wolfspeed (WOLF) stock fell 11% in premarket trading on Monday after announcing it plans to file for bankruptcy in the US under a new restructuring agreement with its creditors. The agreement would provide fresh financing and slash debt by nearly 70%. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) shares rose 4% before the bell after a report from The Wall Street Journal said that Bank of New York Mellon Corp had reached out to the asset and wealth manager and expressed interest in a merger. Most investors will awaken today searching online for "Strait of Hormuz" after the weekend attacks from the US on Iran. For speed of analysis purposes, if this key oil shipping hub closes down (seems like it won't happen, based on everything I am seeing this morning), it could really send oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices skyrocketing. Here's what Goldman's team estimates: "If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down 10% for another 11 months, we estimate that Brent would briefly jump to a peak of around $110." Read more here on Goldman's scenarios. Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oil prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
US Economic Outlook Remains Dark as Major Forecast Sees Sixth Straight Drop
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The United States' economic outlook continues to deteriorate despite some positive developments, according to the Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index (LEI). On Friday, the D.C. think tank announced that the index had declined a further 0.1 percent in May. While this is less steep than the 1.4-percent drop recorded in April, it marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline in the LEI, which has contracted by 2.7 percent over this period. Why It Matters The LEI is a widely consulted indicator when assessing the health of the U.S. economy, and significant declines have in the past been correlated with periods of significant economic downturn. Recession fears have tempered in recent weeks, owing to a pause in the U.S.-China trade dispute and a recovery in the stock market. However, as noted in the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold off on interest rate cuts, the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs could prove a drag on future growth, and Americans still anticipated a prolonged battle with inflation. What To Know The only marginal decline in the LEI was attributed to an outsize drop in April, during which businesses, consumers and investors reacted with unease to the announcement of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Major stock indexes have rebounded since this shock, with all now trading above or near their levels prior to April 2. However, the Conference Board noted that this "strong rebound" was not sufficient to offset the other metrics incorporated into the LEI, such as low consumer expectations for business conditions and persistently weak demand for manufactured goods. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to once again hold off on interest rate cuts, keeping these at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. In its announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee—the branch responsible for setting monetary policy—stated that it would continue to assess risks and work toward its 2 percent inflation target. At a press conference following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was "in solid shape," but warned of "very high uncertainty" due to the impact of tariffs. "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs," he said, "because someone has to pay for the tariffs." What People Are Saying Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, said: "The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally. The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index. However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline. "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal." What Happens Next The Conference Board warned that the six consecutive drops have now pushed the index into the range that typically signals an imminent recession. However, it has held off on this prediction and currently anticipates only a "significant slowdown in economic growth" this year. Meanwhile, Powell said that the Federal Reserve is "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance."
