Latest news with #PeterBoockvar
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The U.S.-China detente could ‘save Christmas,' but expect ‘a rush of ordering the likes we've never seen before,' economist says
Freight bookings jumped the day after the U.S. lowered tariffs on China to 30%. Industry pros say it's the start of a 90-day scramble as importers rush to bring goods and components into the U.S. The U.S. and China have entered a 90-day detente in their tariff war , which means one thing for the roughly 40% of U.S. businesses that source from China: It's time to stock up. 'You are going to see a rush of ordering over the next 90 days the likes we've never seen before,' said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, in a note that began, 'So, both sides luckily decided to save Christmas.' Prior to the announcement, shipments from China to the U.S. had fallen for five weeks straight, according to data from supply-chain tracker Project44. Volumes were down 30% from May 2024. Now, the tariff reduction presents a chance to stock up. To be sure, a 30% import tax on goods from China is historically high and prohibitive for many shippers, with some industry experts warning 'we are not out of the woods yet.' But for many businesses that have seen shipments dry up, paying a certain 30% now is less nerve-racking than holding out for a possible future drop. 'In addition to clearing inventory held back by the previous 145% tariff, many importers may choose to front-load shipments to avoid future uncertainty,' Project44 wrote in a blog post. Already, some indicators show freight reviving. 'Our ocean freight bookings from China to [the] US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal,' Ryan Petersen, CEO of supply-chain platform Flexport, posted on X. 'A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.' In the first few months of the year, importers pulled forward huge volumes of shipments from China to try to get ahead of tariffs. Imports hit record numbers—so much so that they skewed first-quarter GDP, flipping it into reverse. But shipments fell off in later months; at the same time, consumers stocked up on goods to front-run future price increases. That's put inventories at very low levels, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. 'Inventory levels are by and large quite thin,' Bostjancic told Fortune. 'You're getting less coming in through the ships, but also because consumers went out and purchased a lot—there's been a surge of consumer spending ahead of these tariff increases.' Still, it will take time for the surge to be felt. A container ship leaving China will need roughly three weeks to arrive in Los Angeles. Eric Fullerton, VP of product marketing at Project44, expects to see the data start to shift within a few days. 'You'll probably have to call your carriers, network, the ocean liners–Maersk, and say, 'we now want to move this freight which has been hanging out at this warehouse or distribution center in China,'' he said. While some importers have had goods waiting in a warehouse in China for this very moment, others will need to put in orders with factories. 'Between ordering a product, making it, putting it on a ship, getting it here, everyone doing it at the same time—you're going to have to believe there will be delays in production—90 days goes pretty fast,' Boockvar told Fortune, adding that the unpredictable nature of tariff negotiations are an added impetus for companies to move fast. 'What happens if we're 45 days in and negotiations aren't going well, and Trump wakes up and says, 'if this doesn't change, I'm going to reinstate the tariffs?'' he said. 'While there's a 90 day reprieve, it doesn't mean that people will take their time.' The net effect, according to Fullerton, will be like 'rush hour.' 'Well, everyone left at 5—so there's more demand,' he said. Importers will have different strategies for beating the crunch, he said: Some will likely wait out the initial 30-day surge and the shipping cost; others will accept surge pricing; still others will likely ship via air, which is much more costly than boat. 'The number-one nightmare for these companies,' he said, 'is not cost but empty shelves. That's the post-COVID fear that still impacts supply chain professionals today.' He added, 'they're terrified of empty shelves so they'll pay to mitigate that.' This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs devastated America's ports. Soon, they could face a surge from stockpiling
US ports are facing a dramatic slowdown in cargo – but they could see the exact opposite in a matter of weeks. Starting Wednesday, cargo leaving China bound for the US will carry a 30% tariff rate – a reduction from the higher 145% tariff that was in place for six weeks. The US and China announced a dramatic de-escalation in tariffs on Monday, lowering cripplingly high rates for 90 days. Experts say retailers will likely frontload more cargo during the pause, working against the clock to bring in inventory before things change again. 'You're right kind of smack dab in the middle of when all that holiday merchandise is supposed to be coming in. So, there might be some retailers who decide to bring more product in early to get ahead of that potential expiration if they're able to,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation That's exactly what retailers did before the first wave of tariffs took effect on April 9, stockpiling imports in March. China is one of America's most important trading partners, where we get most of our clothes, footwear, toys, electronics and microchips. For many businesses, the higher tariffs make it too expensive to do business with China. Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker, said Monday it was too early to predict the exact scale of the surge following the US-China announcement, but that they were anticipating a 'boom' in bookings. Peter Boockvar, an economist at The Boock Report, says that while it's still unclear how much a 30% tariff rate on China will make a difference, some retailers will take advantage of the lower rate. 'You are going to see a rush of ordering over the next 90 days the likes we've never seen before. You are going to see the cost of transportation skyrocket too in the coming weeks/months,' Boockvar wrote. Despite experts predicting goods will soon surge into American harbors, West Coast ports are still projecting the number of ships, and the volume of cargo, to fall significantly this month. That because it takes ships 3 to 4 weeks to arrive on the West Coast from China. 'By the end of this month, we'll be down 20% the number of ship calls and probably about 25% in the volume of cargo,' Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN's Erin Burnett on Monday. The Port of Long Beach also saw a 35-40% reduction in cargo last week and noted that for a 12-hour period on Friday, no ships left China bound for the San Pedro Bay Complex, which encompasses both Long Beach and the Port of Long Angeles. It was an occurrence officials hadn't seen since the pandemic. Currently, there are seventeen fewer ships than usual bound for the two ports through May 16, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California & Vessel Traffic Service Los Angeles Long Beach. The Port of Seattle also reported empty docks last week, another anomaly that hasn't happened since the pandemic. The Northwest Seaport Alliance, which represents the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, expects volume to drop anywhere from 8% to 15% compared to normal times. Vessels from China that are set to arrive this week are carrying 17% less cargo than usual, the alliance said. 'These (tariff) reductions don't undo the consequences of their implementation. The uncertainty, market disruption, cargo fluctuation, and lost business caused by the initial and remaining tariffs is still a significant concern. Both reductions in cargo and surges have consequences that impact the supply chain. Consistency is a requirement of a fluid supply chain and the jobs that depend on it,' the Northwest Seaport Alliance said in a statement. It's not just the West Coast – it also takes 4 to 6 weeks for ships to reach East Coast ports from Asia, which would push back any cargo surge till next month. 'If they (retailers) start placing orders now, mid to late June is when that cargo might start to arrive. So you'll probably see a slowdown for the next few weeks and then an uptick up until July,' said Gold. But a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while significantly lower than 145%, is still unworkable for many businesses, especially smaller ones. The US Chamber of Commerce said Monday that 'tariffs are much higher overall than they were at the beginning of the year,' and reaffirmed their request for the Trump administration to exempt small businesses from tariffs. 'The larger retailers are in a better position than some of the smaller retailers to be able mitigate' the costs of tariffs, Gold said. 'I think there are a lot of ongoing discussions right now about how this is all going to work out.'
CNN
14-05-2025
- Business
- CNN
Tariffs devastated America's ports. Soon, they could face a surge from stockpiling
US ports are facing a dramatic slowdown in cargo – but they could see the exact opposite in a matter of weeks. Starting Wednesday, cargo leaving China bound for the US will carry a 30% tariff rate – a reduction from the higher 145% tariff that was in place for six weeks. The US and China announced a dramatic de-escalation in tariffs on Monday, lowering cripplingly high rates for 90 days. Experts say retailers will likely frontload more cargo during the pause, working against the clock to bring in inventory before things change again. 'You're right kind of smack dab in the middle of when all that holiday merchandise is supposed to be coming in. So, there might be some retailers who decide to bring more product in early to get ahead of that potential expiration if they're able to,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation That's exactly what retailers did before the first wave of tariffs took effect on April 9, stockpiling imports in March. China is one of America's most important trading partners, where we get most of our clothes, footwear, toys, electronics and microchips. For many businesses, the higher tariffs make it too expensive to do business with China. Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker, said Monday it was too early to predict the exact scale of the surge following the US-China announcement, but that they were anticipating a 'boom' in bookings. Peter Boockvar, an economist at The Boock Report, says that while it's still unclear how much a 30% tariff rate on China will make a difference, some retailers will take advantage of the lower rate. 'You are going to see a rush of ordering over the next 90 days the likes we've never seen before. You are going to see the cost of transportation skyrocket too in the coming weeks/months,' Boockvar wrote. Despite experts predicting goods will soon surge into American harbors, West Coast ports are still projecting the number of ships, and the volume of cargo, to fall significantly this month. That because it takes ships 3 to 4 weeks to arrive on the West Coast from China. 'By the end of this month, we'll be down 20% the number of ship calls and probably about 25% in the volume of cargo,' Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN's Erin Burnett on Monday. The Port of Long Beach also saw a 35-40% reduction in cargo last week and noted that for a 12-hour period on Friday, no ships left China bound for the San Pedro Bay Complex, which encompasses both Long Beach and the Port of Long Angeles. It was an occurrence officials hadn't seen since the pandemic. Currently, there are seventeen fewer ships than usual bound for the two ports through May 16, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California & Vessel Traffic Service Los Angeles Long Beach. The Port of Seattle also reported empty docks last week, another anomaly that hasn't happened since the pandemic. The Northwest Seaport Alliance, which represents the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, expects volume to drop anywhere from 8% to 15% compared to normal times. Vessels from China that are set to arrive this week are carrying 17% less cargo than usual, the alliance said. 'These (tariff) reductions don't undo the consequences of their implementation. The uncertainty, market disruption, cargo fluctuation, and lost business caused by the initial and remaining tariffs is still a significant concern. Both reductions in cargo and surges have consequences that impact the supply chain. Consistency is a requirement of a fluid supply chain and the jobs that depend on it,' the Northwest Seaport Alliance said in a statement. It's not just the West Coast – it also takes 4 to 6 weeks for ships to reach East Coast ports from Asia, which would push back any cargo surge till next month. 'If they (retailers) start placing orders now, mid to late June is when that cargo might start to arrive. So you'll probably see a slowdown for the next few weeks and then an uptick up until July,' said Gold. But a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while significantly lower than 145%, is still unworkable for many businesses, especially smaller ones. The US Chamber of Commerce said Monday that 'tariffs are much higher overall than they were at the beginning of the year,' and reaffirmed their request for the Trump administration to exempt small businesses from tariffs. 'The larger retailers are in a better position than some of the smaller retailers to be able mitigate' the costs of tariffs, Gold said. 'I think there are a lot of ongoing discussions right now about how this is all going to work out.'
CNBC
13-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the Federal Reserve will react to recent CPI data, what Fed cuts could do to bonds, and much more.
CNBC
13-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Mag 7 dominance is over, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the Federal Reserve will react to recent CPI data, what Fed cuts could do to bonds, and much more.
