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What Wall Street has to say about the horrid June private payrolls report

What Wall Street has to say about the horrid June private payrolls report

CNBC02-07-2025
ADP's latest surprise report was not on anyone's bingo card. Private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June , the company said Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 100,000. The report marks the first time since March 2023 that ADP reported a contraction in private payrolls. The data took the wind out of the market's sails in early morning trading. S & P 500 futures gave up their slight gains and were slightly lower following the release. Nasdaq-100 futures were also down 0.3%. To be sure, ADP's track record for predicting the U.S. government's monthly jobs report isn't great — giving investors hope that Thursday's June nonfarm numbers payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics won't be as bad as ADP's figures released Wednesday. The economy is expected to have added 110,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Here's what some Wall Street investors and strategists had to say about Wednesday's ADP figures: Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO: "The negative print was a clear downside surprise versus the +98k consensus. This is the first negative print since March 2023, and second negative print since the early stages of the pandemic. Overall, it was a disappointing jobs proxy that sets up tomorrow's BLS release as a major wildcard." Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial: "I wasn't planning on writing this week but felt the need right now after seeing the ADP private sector jobs report … I'll say again, a blanket 10% tariff on all incoming imports of goods just loaded about $330b of fresh taxes on American importers (yes, some are absorbed by the exporter) which has the effective impact of raising the corporate income tax rate to 34% from 21%." Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab: "Ouch: June ⁦@ADP⁩ payrolls -33k vs. +98k est. & +29k prior (rev down from +37k) … first monthly decline since March 2023 ." Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research: "Remember: ADP is a bad predictor of nonfarm payrolls … mainly because nonfarm payrolls are a bad predictor of what is actually happening to payrolls." Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney: "Your monthly reminder: surprises in the ADP employment change are uncorrelated with surprises in NFPs. But this doesn't look great ." — CNBC's Alex Harring and Yun Li contributed reporting.
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