Latest news with #BobElliott
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
To achieve market expectations we need strong growth and little inflation: Unlimited's Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk why he thinks the markets are 'priced for perfection' and what could throw that balance off.
Axios
08-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
The paradox of Trump's tariff policy
U.S. trade policy has entered the great in-between, a liminal state in which high tariffs on major trading partners are ostensibly imminent, yet also forever just over the next horizon. Why it matters: The good news for American consumers and businesses is that potential price shocks and other disruptions from an all-out global trade war remain at bay — and Wall Street is taking this confusing landscape in stride. The bad news is it's hardly the kind of policy landscape conducive to companies making long-term investments. State of play: With a much-balleyhooed 90-day negotiation period set to expire Wednesday, President Trump issued a slew of letters announcing new tariffs on major trading partners that are close to those originally announced on the April 2 "Liberation Day." The most economically consequential are 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, major trading partners and traditional geopolitical allies. But they are not set to go into effect until Aug. 1, three weeks away. Driving the news: On Tuesday morning, Trump insisted that the onset of higher tariffs is real this time, suggesting it's not just a negotiating feint. "TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change," he wrote on Truth Social. "No extensions will be granted," he added. Zoom in: Markets have largely shrugged off those threats, betting that Trump envisions further deal-making — and, implicitly, further punting of tariffs — ahead. Stock, bond, and currency markets have seen only modest moves on the news, in contrast to their early April sell-off. Meanwhile, inflation data came in soft for April and May, contrary to warnings from business leaders and economists that tariff-fueled price spikes and shortages could loom. Between the lines: The combination of a booming stock market and lack of evident economic damage from the earlier rollout of tariffs seems to have empowered Trump to keep pushing tariff talk, rather than strike quick deals and move on. What they're saying: These are, as Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds wrote, "Schrodinger's Tariffs," simultaneously alive and dead. The administration "has had room to swing back to a more aggressive policy stance on the trade war because so far the effects are not being felt significantly across the economy," he wrote in his newsletter, Nonconsensus. "But a big reason why there has been no impact here is simply because it's taking time to ramp up the prospective tariff collection, and that then is taking time to flow into the real economy given normal lags," Elliott argued. The fact that negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea were at such a stalemate that Trump has reignited the trade war is a sign of a new normal. "At a very basic level, nothing actually happened based on Trump sending these letters, so there's no reason to panic over headlines," wrote Tobin Marcus at Wolfe Research in a note. "But we think these moves do contain some signal about where the trade war is heading, and that signal is mostly hawkish," he added. By the numbers: If the tariffs announced Monday go into effect and remain in place, it would translate to a 17.6% average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports, the Yale Budget Lab estimates, the highest since 1934. That's up from 15.8% previously and up from 2.4% as of January. If sustained, the currently announced tariff regime would translate to a 1.7% rise in consumer prices, costing the average household $2,300 per year, per the Yale Budget Lab. The bottom line: There is good reason to believe Trump's latest letters to trading partners are a negotiating strategy, but the fact that they exist is a warning sign about the new global trade landscape.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Portfolio Manager and Noted Macro and Market Analyst Bob Elliott Launches Substack Newsletter
Bob Elliott's Substack brings timely, institutional-caliber macro and markets research to all investors NEW YORK, June 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bob Elliott, former member of the Investment Committee at Bridgewater Associates and the CEO/CIO of alternative investment firm Unlimited, today announced the launch of Nonconsensus, a new economic and investing newsletter published on Substack. The publication will provide global market insights, economic trend analysis, and portfolio strategy commentary aimed at a wide range of investors including retail traders, financial advisors and institutional professionals. Nonconsensus builds on Bob's well-established presence on X (formerly Twitter), offering deeper insights and expanded analysis. Subscribers will receive a variety of content, including exclusive threads, real-time market commentary, early access to thought leadership, and access to an engaged community of fellow investors—including Bob. A free tier will also be available, offering readers a weekly roundup of Bob's analysis and select real-time content with guidance on navigating challenging macro environments. The newsletter will cover global macroeconomic trends—from central bank policies to market movements—translating complex developments into actionable insight, mirroring Unlimited's mission of making traditionally elusive alts strategies available to all investors. 'Since beginning to share my writing publicly a few years ago, I've been humbled by how many people have found clarity in my thoughts and engaged so meaningfully,' said Mr. Elliott. 'With Nonconsensus, I hope to foster a dynamic and intellectually curious community of investors committed to demystifying the markets.' Investors and readers can subscribe to Nonconsensus at Media Contacts: Sarah Lazarus Zach Kouwe Dukas Linden Public Relations Dukas Linden Public Relations +1 617-335-7823 +1 551-655-4032 sarah@ zkouwe@ in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Markets might get surprised if the tariff conflict continues, says Unlimited's Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Is Pricing A Never-Before-Seen 'Divergence' As Equities And Bonds 'Run It Hot' Amid Gloomy Outlook By Bottom-Up Analysts
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The financial markets are signaling a remarkably bullish outlook, with both stock and bond markets fully embracing a 'run it hot' trade. However, this aggressive market pricing stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic views held by bottom-up analysts, companies, and economists, according to a recent analysis by Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds. What Happened: Elliott, in a detailed X thread, highlights this unprecedented 'divergence' which he has 'never seen' in his professional career outside of typical cyclical Miss: Start investing with eToro's CopyTrader — mirror top-performing traders with no management fees, and receive a $10 bonus when you deposit $100 today. Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — you can become an investor for $0.80 per share today. Following Tuesday's surge in the equity market, market-based pricing of growth expectations has almost entirely recovered its earlier drop this year, now sitting just a few points off highs. As highlighted by Elliott, this sentiment is reflected in large-cap 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratios, which are back near all-time highs at 21x. Concurrently, long-dated real yields have reached their post-COVID cycle highs, and term premiums on closer-in maturities are also approaching their cycle peaks. Despite this seemingly extreme market optimism, the perspective from professionals analyzing data from the ground up paints a far more subdued picture. Economists are forecasting softer growth for the next couple of years. Corporate earnings revisions for U.S. large-cap companies have notably collapsed, reaching their weakest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. Global earnings revisions also remain quite subdued, despite a marginal recent uptick in negativity. Projections for 2025 earnings growth, which are typically skewed positively until just before the period, are currently penciled in at a mere 7%.Why It Matters: According to Elliott, either bottom-up analysts, scrutinizing incoming data, are taking an excessively pessimistic stance, or they are accurate, implying the markets are 'wildly offside.' For macro investors, he suggests, 'making a call on which is right will likely be the make or break trade for the rest of '25.' Read Next: Nancy Pelosi Invested $5 Million In An AI Company Last Year — Here's How You Can Invest In Multiple Pre-IPO AI Startups With Just $1,000. Invest Where It Hurts — And Help Millions Heal: Invest in Cytonics and help disrupt a $390B Big Pharma stronghold. Photo: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Stock Market Is Pricing A Never-Before-Seen 'Divergence' As Equities And Bonds 'Run It Hot' Amid Gloomy Outlook By Bottom-Up Analysts originally appeared on
