Latest news with #BobIaccino
Axios
11-08-2025
- Business
- Axios
Gold investors remain bullish amid tariff scramble
A U.S. government agency ruled that gold bars from Switzerland would be subject to tariffs. Gold prices shot up. Then the administration announced it would issue a new policy to exempt the gold bars. Why it matters: The snip-snap approach to tariffs roiled bullion prices, but investors say they are bullish with or without the tariffs. Catch up quick: Switzerland is one of the largest gold refiners in the world, exporting over $50 billion worth over the 12 months ending in June. Gold exports spiked early this year as investors sought to frontload tariffs, according to HSBC. What they're saying:"This action further bolsters our bullish outlook for gold prices, with these tariffs set to disrupt the flow of gold globally and push both the US and global price higher," Trevor Yates, senior investment analyst at Global X, wrote in a note. Between the lines: There are still several catalysts ahead for gold demand, according to Bob Iaccino, chief market strategist at Path Trading Partners and author of the Finance Unfiltered newsletter. Volatility amid tariff uncertainty would be good for gold, since it is still considered a safe haven asset. Rate cuts could be another tailwind. Central bank purchases of gold also continue to climb amid a de-dollarization push driven by tariff policy by the administration. Zoom out: Investors have been riding the gold gravy train all year, according to the latest Gold Demand Trends report from the World Gold Council. Gold ETF inflows hit 170 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025, valued at nearly $400 billion, the strongest first half finish since 2020. Retail investment rose 11% year-over-year, driven by demand in China. Central banks added 166 metric tons in the second quarter, with 95% of reserve managers expecting central bank buying to keep exacerbating. Yes, but: There remains uncertainty about what reciprocal tariffs on other gold-exporting countries could mean for the precious metal. The only two countries the U.S. gets more gold from than Switzerland are Canada and Mexico. Be smart: According to Bloomberg, managers at gold refineries are already pausing shipments until there is more clarity on levies. Tariffs could also have severe implications for how gold futures are traded.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil under even more pressure as Saudi Arabia boosts crude output
Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices hover below $70 a barrel after Saudi Arabia raised its crude output above its OPEC+ quota. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré, Path Trading Partners chief market strategist Bob Iaccino, and Prairie Operating Company executive vice president of market strategy Lou Basenese join Market Catalysts host Allie Canal to discuss why Wall Street sees oil prices trending lower and what falling rig counts and SPR cuts mean for the outlook. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Joining me now to dive into the latest trends is Bob Iacchino, Path Trading Partners chief market strategist. Lou Basanese, Prairie Operating Company EVP of Market Strategy is here with us. And our senior markets reporter, Inez Ferre. Inez, I I want to start with you here because OPEC Plus decided to increase production this week. Just this morning, we heard that Saudi Arabia raised its own crude output far above its own OPEC Plus quota. Prices trading below 70 bucks a barrel. So what's Wall Street saying about where we could be heading? Well, long-term Wall Street is seeing oil trending lower uh by the end of the year. And part of that has to do of course with OPEC Plus increasing its output. I mean, if you take a look this week though, we are on pace to close out the week higher. You mentioned that IEA report that's talking about a surplus but tightness in the market right now. You also have rig counts that are lower week over week. So that's spelling some tightness. And then you've got uncertainty about what President Trump is going to say regarding Russia on Monday. But longer term, definitely the street is expecting a lower trend for uh oil prices. Also want to note that JP Morgan noted in their note this morning that that big beautiful bill uh that went into law, that that also slashes uh the amount of money that the government will spend to refill the SPR for now. So that has cut some SPR funding. So you won't be seeing as much buying uh for that SPR. So that should put pressure on prices as well as China has been increasing its stockpile, but they're they're getting up there in that peak. So what these analysts are saying is is that you're going to start seeing some of that uh surplus in the Western market that should put uh pressure on prices uh later this year. So Bob, we seem to have a challenging medium-term demand environment. And Inez was just laying out the case that Wall Street has been making that we will see uh prices continue to decline. At what price point does this start to be a little bit concerning to you? Well, I guess it depends on from what side you're looking at it. I mean, we know that Permian specifically and shale production in the US generally is declining. And as you see pressure on prices, there's not going to be a whole lot of incentive for CapEx. President Trump came into office talking about deregulation and drill baby drill. But we all know from having discussed it for years that it's just not that simple. You just don't turn a spigot on and more oil comes out. Not to mention the the non-fungible nature of the different types of crude oil. So when you're looking at to the downside, 40 to 45 is when I start to get worried about the overall effect to that particular region of the country. But when you're talking about the upside, there's a lot of room on the upside where there's not a lot of pain to the general economy. And I'm talking about versus today's price. We're looking at WTI at about 68. Probably get to about 75-78 before it starts to become worrisome. But this is the part of the, the only part of the tariffs in my view that can be viewed as inflationary is the tariffs on industrial metals like copper and energy producing countries like Brazil and Canada. That's where you start to get inflationary pressures. Otherwise, tariffs are a tax, and taxes historically are deflationary. So this is actually a problem for what the president wants to achieve in my view. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold & the Fed: Investing in the metal amid rate cut hopes
Gold (GC=F) prices tick higher on Tuesday as softer-than-expected US inflation data fuels new hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Bob Iaccino, Path Trading Partners chief market strategist and Co-Host of The Futures Edge Podcast, breaks down why he still sees upside for gold and how peoples should be investing into the commodity. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.
Yahoo
17-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Watch the Fed decision to know where gold is headed next
Gold (GC=F) has risen about 15% so far this year. If you want to know what lies ahead for the precious metal, watch what happens at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, says Bob Iaccino, Path Trading Partners chief market strategist and co-host of The Futures Edge podcast. Find out why in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Gold coming off its recent all-time with the precious metal up nearly 15% year-to-date, as investors looking for safe haven assets amid volatility. So it's now the time to get into gold, or has it run its course? We've got Bob Iacono, Path Trading partners, chief market strategist, with us for more. Bob, more room to run with gold? Hey Maddie, how are you? Uh yes, there is more room to run with gold, uh but your sort of trigger point is Wednesday, right? I mean, you look at all the scenarios that we're going through with a lot of deflationary effects being put in by the administration. Tariffs are inflationary, but deportations could potentially be deflationary. Doge is definitely deflationary. So when you're looking at it from that perspective, there are some triggers that could come during the Fed statement or during the Fed speech that could put downside pressure on gold. But when you look at it medium term, we had a really massive sideways correction. Took about 12 weeks between November 20, well, let's call it early November of 2024 to the beginning of January of 2025. And then we broke back out. That's kind of what I expect here. A lot of people look for corrections to be eight to 10% drops, but there's a such thing with price action experts. I know some, I'm not really one. They call it a sideways correction, and that's what's been happening with gold lately. That shows you that the upside bias is there. I think we're going to get another one of those starting on Wednesday. What are the remaining upside catalysts for gold at this juncture? Well, I don't believe in the deflationary story quite frankly, Brad. You know me long enough, at least to know that I like watching The Bachelor. And I think some of the inflationary things that are still in place, and some of them that are going to trigger down the road, tariffs, for example, a lot of people are calling those inflationary. They weren't inflationary in 2017, but they could be in this particular case because 2017 had a long runway of any other causes of inflation. This time, we're sitting at inflation somewhere between 2.3 and 3.1%, depending on what you're looking at, and adding tariffs to that could actually put substantial upside pressure on some parts of the economy. The deflationary impetus is if we actually get onshoring. Gold has a lot of scenarios before it. Not too many of them are bearish. Obviously, you've got stagflation, which would be bullish gold. You have recession, which would be bullish gold. And the potential for inflation to actually kick up with another growth cycle, and if the Fed doesn't respond to that, that's also bullish gold. Looking at the CME Fed watch tool this morning, we still have three to four rate cuts being priced in through the end of 2026. Uh that's implying a recession, and I'm not sure I see that many rate cuts, but gold does. I wonder too how you're thinking about the relationship between gold and the US dollar. Obviously both are down this morning, and then you've got yields, particularly at the longer end of the curve moving to the upside as well. When you look across asset classes, what does it tell you about where gold is heading? Well, in reference to gold sort of short to medium term, the overall trend in long-term rates has been lower. Since the inauguration, and I'm not giving credit there, I'm just picking a point in time, the 10 years down around 24, 25 basis points. So that's actually bullish gold. Yes, today we're getting a little reversal of that, but a very little one. So when I look at it from that perspective, you look at the long-term trends, the dollar's long-term trend is really bad. If you look at say a weekly chart of the dollar, it's, it's ugly. And when you look at the potential, I'm not saying this is going to happen, but the potential for countries like Germany to rearm, that's spending, that's strengthening the euro, which could mean weakness in the dollar that we haven't even seen yet. Sign in to access your portfolio
