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Axios
07-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
"Choppy" is the new "uncertainty" on Wall Street
"Choppy" is the new buzzword for investors who see " uncertainty" as a rearview problem. Why it matters: Consensus is building around a bullish path to year-end, but that bullishness has an asterisk: Investors should expect headline-driven volatility to be a feature, not a bug, for this bull market. What they're saying: "The path forward is unlikely to be smooth," Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, wrote in a note to clients, adding that the uptrend deserves the benefit of the doubt. Historically, markets are more unsettled in August and September, which is also right in the middle of earnings season. Last earnings season came directly after tariff policy changes, making it hard for companies to give investors clarity on their impact. Investors want more transparency in this upcoming cycle. "Now's the time to tune up your portfolio before fall volatility rolls in." writes Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. By the numbers: Part of the choppiness is what's driving the current market rally — a bit more sentiment than fundamentals, per to a recent note from RBC's Lori Calvasina. Even RBC's best-case scenario for the S&P 500 — which factors in inflation at 2%, one Fed cut, 10-year yields staying at current levels and earnings per share of $270 — lands the market at 6,200 to end the year. That's below where we are today. "The rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 is already back to post-COVID/non-crisis rebound highs, making us wonder if this is as good as it gets for 2025 earnings," wrote Calvasina. The intrigue: Every single midyear outlook reviewed by Axios Markets — ranging from Vanguard to J.P. Morgan to Bank of America — referred to some sort of volatility or choppiness to come in the second half of this year. Yes, but: Companies have proven resilient in the face of Covid, supply chain disruptions, and record inflation, leaving Lerner to think large companies can stomach the current buffet of policy risks, too. "My expectation is they're gonna continue to adapt," he said. "If you get some of that choppiness, maybe that's an opportunity." Lerner expects companies to beat estimates in earnings season by about 4% to 5%, but adds it's all about guidance. The big picture: The administration's focus on tariffs may have delayed, but not removed, catalysts that could deliver gains regardless of short-term volatility: Deregulation fueling increased M&A and a more robust IPO pipeline. Tax cut extensions that fuel clarity for businesses. Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. What we're watching: After defensive plays like industrials and utilities drove gains in the first half of the year, sector leadership could be set to turn more offensive. In recent days, cyclical areas of the market, like semiconductors and homebuilders, are starting to break out to new all-time highs. Investors may be pricing in an early cycle of an economic re-acceleration.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US stocks end sharply higher on China-US trade deal. S&P 500 hits more than 2-month high
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher, with the blue-chip Dow surging more than 1,000 points, after the U.S. announced a trade deal with China. The U.S. and China put a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs the countries had imposed on one another. Effective from Wednesday, the U.S. will temporarily reduce tariffs on China to 30%, down from 145%, and China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to 10%, down from 125%. "This was a larger-than-expected the negotiation process will likely remain challenging," said Lynn Song, chief economist of greater China at Dutch bank ING. As the deadline for the 90-day pause nears, tensions may reescalate, some said. "Expect volatility as we approach the 90-day reciprocal tariffs deadline," wrote Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, in a note. "But today, the market is blowing through resistance levels and if it sticks, this is a big WIN for Trump, for stocks and for investors." The Dow soared 2.81%, or 1,160.72 points, to 42,410.10; while the broad S&P 500 jumped 3.26%, or 184.28 points, to 5,844.19; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 4.35%, or 779.43 points, to 18,708.34. The S&P 500 touched the highest level in more than two months. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.475% as investors bet better tariff terms with China could save the economy from a recession and the Federal Reserve wouldn't have to cut rates any time soon. Oil prices also rose more than 1% on hopes a chugging economy will keep up demand. Gold prices shed about 3% as the need faded for a safe-haven investment. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng described the meetings on Sunday as "candid, in-depth and constructive" and said "substantial progress was made and important consensus was reached," according to Chinese state media. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday morning he expected to meet with Chinese officals again in coming weeks to further discuss trade. 'I would imagine in the next few weeks we will be meeting again to get rolling on a more fulsome agreement,' Bessent said on CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' A deal with China, one of the U.S.' top trading partners, is seen as a relief for investors who worried tariffs as high as 145% would severely limit trade, raise prices and hurt the U.S. economy. The U.S. and the U.K. announced a trade deal framework last week that started to turn sentiment more optimistic that Trump could get trade deals done. The tariff pause is positive for companies, analysts said. "Management teams could witness significantly fewer costs, as most businesses have opted to plan with the assumption of a 145% tariff in place," said Randal Konik, equity analyst at Jefferies. That should help earnings outlooks, experts said. "Corporate America can handle 10% tariffs, and this will only be a 2% hit to earnings, not the 5% that rattled markets," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. Retail: Tariff relief from the U.S.- China deal boosted major retailers like Target, Home Depot and Best Buy that sell a lot of "Made in China" goods. Target shares gained almost 5%, Home Depot added nearly 4% and Best Buy rose more than 6.5%. Home furnishing retailer Williams-Sonoma, which sources nearly a quarter of products from China, and Nike, which makes about 18% of its footwear in China, also saw jumps in their stock prices. Small businesses like those who sell on Amazon Marketplace also will feel relief. Amazon shares jumped 8%. U.S. listed Chinese stocks: Chinese companies, including ecommerce giant Alibaba, Chinese tech stocks like and PDD, and EV manufacturers Nio, XPeng and Li Auto, rallied. Alibaba rose 5.82%, added 6.47%, PDD rallied 6.14%, NIO rose 5.79%, XPeng was up 7.62% and Li Auto gained 6.57%. Auto makers: Shares of car makers that rely on Chinese parts rose. Ford stock was up 2.53% and GM gained 4.48%. Tech stocks: Apple, which assembles many of its iPhones in China and said it may raise iPhone prices, saw its stock jump more than 6%. Tesla rose 6.75%, regaining its market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time since February. China is a key market for the EV maker. Chip stocks also soared, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) having its best day since April 9. SharkNinja Chief Executive Mark Barrocas instructed factories in China to release hundreds of containers of goods bound for the U.S., including coffee makers and the Ninja Slushie, a frozen drink maker, after news broke of the U.S.-China trade deal, the Wall Street Journal reported. Still, SharkNinja is still looking to build a factory in the U.S. to produce low-labor intensive products like coolers and certain vacuum cleaners, the story said. Barrocas said the factory would have to be built from the ground up and goods wouldn't start rolling off the production lines until the end of 2026 at the earliest, the WSJ said. SharkNinja shares rose 7.37%. In a non-tariff related move, NRG Energy jumped 26.21% and was the biggest percentage gainer in the S&P 500 after the utility said it would acquire power generation assets from energy infrastructure investment firm LS Power in a deal valued at $12 billion. President Donald Trump signed an executive order giving drugmakers price targets in the next 30 days, and will take further action to lower prices if those companies do not make "significant progress" towards those goals within six months of the order being signed. "I will be instituting a MOST FAVORED NATION'S POLICY whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World," Trump said in an earllier post on Truth Social. "Our Country will finally be treated fairly, and our citizens Healthcare Costs will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before." Trump tried a similar move in his first term to bring the U.S. in line with other countries but was blocked by the courts. MicroStrategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor announced that the firm acquired 13,390 bitcoin for approximately $1.34 billion from May 5-11. MicroStrategy is now known as Strategy. Bitcoin was last down 2.08% at $101,880.40. This story was updated with new information. Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@ and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Dow surges, S&P 500 jumps to more than 2-month high on US-China deal Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Dubai Eye
13-05-2025
- Business
- Dubai Eye
Global markets rally as US and China agree to 90-Day tariff truce
Global shares rallied, while gold and safe-haven currencies slumped against a resurgent dollar on Monday as the US and China agreed to temporarily slash harsh reciprocal tariffs and cooperate. Following weekend talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the US would drop levies on Chinese imports from 145 per cent to 30 per cent during a 90-day negotiation period and China would cut duties from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Wall Street stocks made significant gains, with the S&P 500 index jumping 3.3 per cent and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.4 per cent. In a joint statement on Monday, Washington and Beijing said they recognised the importance of their bilateral trade relationship to both countries and the global economy, in language that analysts said had brightened the market outlook. An index tracking the dollar against other major currencies rose further from last month's three-year trough with an almost 1.17 per cent gain, while Japan's yen fell 2.1 per cent to 148.39 per dollar. The retreat from safe-haven assets pushed Switzerland's franc 1.8 per cent lower on the day, in a jolt of relief for Swiss exporters and the nation's central bank. Spot gold prices, which hit an all-time high of $3,500 last month and often move inversely to the dollar, fell 2.7 per cent to $3,234.8 an ounce. "This is a textbook recovery after the market's waterfall declines," said Gina Bolvin, the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "The market is blowing through resistance levels and if it sticks, this is a big 'WIN' for Trump, for stocks and for investors." The euro, which surged in April as investors questioned the dollar's long-held status as the world's reserve currency, was 1.4 per cent lower at $1.1090.
The Star
13-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
Stocks, dollar surge as US and China agree 90-day tariff relief
NEW YORK/LONDON: Global shares rallied, while gold and safe-haven currencies slumped against a resurgent dollar on Monday as the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash harsh reciprocal tariffs and cooperate to avoid rupturing the global economy. Following weekend talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the U.S. would drop levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period and China would cut duties from 125% to 10%. Wall Street stocks made significant gains, with the S&P 500 index jumping 3.3% and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.4%. In a joint statement on Monday, Washington and Beijing said they recognised the importance of their bilateral trade relationship to both countries and the global economy, in language that analysts said had brightened the market outlook. An index tracking the dollar against other major currencies rose further from last month's three-year trough with an almost 1.17% gain, while Japan's yen fell 2.1% to 148.39 per dollar. The retreat from safe-haven assets pushed Switzerland's franc 1.8% lower on the day, in a jolt of relief for Swiss exporters and the nation's central bank. Spot gold prices, which hit an all-time high of $3,500 last month and often move inversely to the dollar, fell 2.7% to $3,234.8 an ounce. "This is a textbook recovery after the market's waterfall declines," said Gina Bolvin, the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "The market is blowing through resistance levels and if it sticks, this is a big 'WIN' for Trump, for stocks and for investors." The euro, which surged in April as investors questioned the dollar's long-held status as the world's reserve currency, was 1.4% lower at $1.1090. 'RELIEF' Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, said the tariff pause was a "substantial relief" for the U.S. and China. With tariff anxiety having already caused some Chinese exporters to consider their futures, data this weekend showed the nation's factory-gate prices had dropped by the most in six months in April. Trump's erratic trade policies had also sparked fears over U.S. corporate earnings, with investors having entered this week nervous about an impending update from retail giant Walmart after a slew of U.S. multi-nationals pulled their forecasts. On Monday, however, commodities traders rushed to reassess the recessionary risks of tariff uncertainty, with oil traders pricing Brent crude for delivery next month almost 1.9% higher at $65.10 a barrel, up from around $57 a week ago. Europe's regional STOXX 600 was last trading 1.2% higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended the day with an almost 3% gain. FURTHER TO RUN? While Trump's April 2 tariff announcement initially caused world stocks to drop sharply, MSCI's index of global shares , which is U.S.-dominated, was trading back at levels last seen in late March and was up 2%. Some analysts and investors warned, however, that this was not the end of unpredictable trade talks between the White House and Beijing and that any relief may soon be overshadowed by data showing the U.S. economy had slowed. Sheldon MacDonald, CIO at British asset manager Marlborough, said that even if the U.S. maintained 30% tariffs on China this was still "negative" for growth, with "no all-clear on recession fears just yet." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose almost 10 basis points on the day, as the price of the government debt fell, with almost identical moves for benchmark German Bunds and British gilts. But analysts at Citi cautioned Trump supporters may not support a compromise with China and recalled the short-lived trade truce during his first presidency in 2018-2019, when both nations agreed a 90-day tariff halt before tensions resumed. "It's going to take some time to get more clarity," said John Praveen, managing director co-chief investment officer at Paleo Leon in New Jersey. "Until we have a final agreement on both sides, when Trump and Chinese President Xi meet and shake hands, that's when we will begin to see the blue skies." - Reuters
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks, dollar surge as US and China agree 90-day tariff relief
By Koh Gui Qing and Naomi Rovnick NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Global shares rallied, while gold and safe-haven currencies slumped against a resurgent dollar on Monday as the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash harsh reciprocal tariffs and cooperate to avoid rupturing the global economy. Following weekend talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the U.S. would drop levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period and China would cut duties from 125% to 10%. Wall Street stocks were set for significant daily gains, with the S&P 500 index jumping 3% and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.1%. In a joint statement on Monday, Washington and Beijing said they recognised the importance of their bilateral trade relationship to both countries and the global economy, in language that analysts said had brightened the market outlook. An index tracking the dollar against other major currencies rose further from last month's three-year trough with an almost 1.25% gain, while Japan's yen fell 2.2% to 148.48 per dollar. The retreat from safe-haven assets pushed Switzerland's franc 1.4% lower on the day, in a jolt of relief for Swiss exporters and the nation's central bank. Spot gold prices, which hit an all-time high of $3,500 last month and often move inversely to the dollar, fell 3% to $3,225.3 an ounce. "This is a textbook recovery after the market's waterfall declines," said Gina Bolvin, the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "The market is blowing through resistance levels and if it sticks, this is a big 'WIN' for Trump, for stocks and for investors." The euro, which surged in April as investors questioned the dollar's long-held status as the world's reserve currency, was 1.2% lower at $1.1113. 'RELIEF' Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, said the tariff pause was a "substantial relief" for the U.S. and China. With tariff anxiety having already caused some Chinese exporters to consider their futures, data this weekend showed the nation's factory-gate prices had dropped by the most in six months in April. Trump's erratic trade policies had also sparked fears over U.S. corporate earnings, with investors having entered this week nervous about an impending update from retail giant Walmart after a slew of U.S. multi-nationals pulled their forecasts. On Monday, however, commodities traders rushed to reassess the recessionary risks of tariff uncertainty, with oil traders pricing Brent crude for delivery next month almost 1.9% higher at $65.10 a barrel, up from around $57 a week ago. Europe's regional STOXX 600 was last trading 1.2% higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended the day with an almost 3% gain. FURTHER TO RUN? While Trump's April 2 tariff announcement initially caused world stocks to drop sharply, MSCI's index of global shares, which is U.S.-dominated, was trading back at levels last seen in late March and was up 1.8%. Some analysts and investors warned, however, that this was not the end of unpredictable trade talks between the White House and Beijing and that any relief may soon be overshadowed by data showing the U.S. economy had slowed. Sheldon MacDonald, CIO at British asset manager Marlborough, said that even if the U.S. maintained 30% tariffs on China this was still "negative" for growth, with "no all-clear on recession fears just yet". Market pricing at the start of the U.S. morning showed extreme optimism that a trade war with China would be avoided, however, with investors cashing out of traditionally low-risk government debt instruments to load up on stocks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose almost 8 basis points on the day, as the price of the government debt fell, with almost identical moves for benchmark German Bunds and British gilts. But analysts at Citi cautioned Trump supporters may not support a compromise with China and recalled the short-lived trade truce during his first presidency in 2018-2019, when both nations agreed a 90-day tariff halt before tensions resumed. "It's going to take some time to get more clarity," said John Praveen, managing director co-chief investment officer at Paleo Leon in New Jersey. "Until we have a final agreement on both sides, when Trump and Chinese President Xi meet and shake hands, that's when we will begin to see the blue skies." (Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney and Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Editing by Ros Russell and Alex Richardson) Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
