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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Paytm Q1 results preview: Will co's net loss narrow? Check date, estimates
Paytm Q1 results preview: One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, is scheduled to release its first quarter (Q1FY26) results on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Paytm Q1 results 2025: Profit estimates Bloomberg estimates Paytm's adjusted net loss to narrow year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹126.63 crore as compared to ₹838.9 crore. Sequentially, the adjusted net loss is expected to narrow from ₹539.8 crore in Q4. Paytm Q1 results 2025: Revenue expectations The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to increase by 31 per cent in the first quarter, on average, to ₹1,968.15 crore as compared to ₹1,501.6 crore a year ago. However, on a Q-o-Q basis, the revenue is poised to rise 2.9 per cent from ₹1,911.5 crore in Q4FY25. The revenue, according to analysts, will be led by robust merchant lending expansion (higher take rates against personal loans) and gradual user base recovery post-NPCI onboarding approval. Check List of Q1 results today How will Paytm perform in Q1FY26? Motilal Oswal: Analysts at the brokerage expect Paytm's gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to ₹5.3 trillion in Q1FY26. The company's revenue from operations is likely to remain flat Q-o-Q and increase 26 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹1,896 crore, while contribution profit is expected to decline marginally, largely due to UPI incentives in Q4FY25, to ₹1,050 crore. Contribution margin is expected to improve to 55.6 per cent. Paytm is forecasted to report marginal profits during Q1. JM Financial Institutional Securities: On a consolidated basis, the brokerage expects revenue to remain flat sequentially, but up 27 per cent Y-o-Y. The revenue from operations is pegged at ₹1,910.9 crore as compared to ₹1,911.5 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹1,501.6 crore a year ago. The contribution margin is forecasted to decline by 67 basis points (bps) to 55.4 per cent as compared to 56.1 per cent in Q4, due to an increasing share of financial services in the mix (via higher take-rates from the DLG model in merchant loans). Further, better operating leverage due to lower employee cost will help Paytm to remain adjusted Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive in Q1 with an adjusted Ebitda margin of 1.1 per cent. The company's adjusted Ebitda is projected at ₹21.1 crore as compared to ₹803 crore in Q4 and Ebitda loss of ₹545.2 crore a year ago. Track Stock Market LIVE Updates Bonanza: According to Nitant Darekar, research analyst at Bonanza, Paytm's Q1FY26 represents a pivotal inflection point as the fintech player transitions from restructuring to sustainable growth. Darekar expects the company to achieve PAT profitability from Q1FY26 onwards (barring exceptional items), underpinned by normalised employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) expenses at ₹75-₹100 crore quarterly against ₹522 crore exceptional charge and significant AI-driven operational efficiencies reducing cloud/data center costs. The company's revenue growth will be led by robust merchant lending expansion (higher take rates against personal loans) and gradual user base recovery post-NPCI onboarding approval. However, personal loan disbursements will remain subdued due to industry-wide credit tightening and management's strategic shift to a pure distribution model. The UPI MDR implementation catalyst within FY26 could unlock substantial monetisation potential at 5-8 bps of GMV. Master Capital Services: Analysts at the brokerage expect the payments and financial services segments to fare very well in Q1, demonstrating the ongoing recovery. Further, expectations of a rise in merchant subscriber base as the company has a key focus on the area, which helped stabilise core business even amid earlier headwinds. Paytm is likely to move closer to overall profitability, with the potential to achieve Ebitda profitability in Q1. Swastika Investmart: Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika, believes there is a high probability that the company could turn PAT positive this quarter.
Mint
05-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market: Experts unveil this strategy as 90-day pause in Trump's tariff deadline approaches
The Indian stock market has been in consolidation mode as investors continue to track progress in the India-US trade deal ahead of the approaching tariff deadline. However, despite this, Nifty breached the key resistance level of 25,350, confirming a breakout last week. Market experts believe that as the 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs comes to an end, Indian markets may encounter indirect challenges due to the uncertain global trade environment. On Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50, rebounded breaking a two-day losing streak. The Sensex gained 193 points, or 0.23%, to settle at 83,432.89, while the Nifty 50 advanced 56 points, or 0.22%, closing at 25,461. "The Indian market is experiencing a pause as investors adopt a wait-and-watch strategy ahead of the impending US tariff deadline, with mixed global cues. Ongoing FII outflows reflect a risk-off approach, while DII inflows are offering partial support," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, observed. Nitin Jain, Sr. Research Analyst at Bonanza says that a wise approach is to adopt a defensive position, concentrating on domestic-focused industries such as banking and FMCG which are less affected by global fluctuations. 'Sectors that rely on exports—especially IT and specialty chemicals—might experience short-term pressure if global demand declines amid tariff uncertainties. Investors should exercise caution regarding industries associated with global supply chains, such as metals and capital goods,' Jain said. On the technical side, the index remains on solid footing and appears well-poised to approach new all-time highs in the coming months, according to Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza. 'That said, the rally is unlikely to be one-way; phases of consolidation and profit booking are expected as part of a healthy trend. We maintain our target of 26,500–26,600 for Nifty in 2025, with any meaningful dip presenting a buying opportunity, in line with the broader positive structure,' Kamble said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
04-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Silver's 8% rally in June outshines gold. Which precious metal can offer better returns going ahead?
Gold vs Silver: While gold prices outpaced silver in the first half of 2025 with a nearly 25% rise, silver wasn't far behind, rallying about 20%. However, in June, as gold's momentum slowed with a gain of less than 1%, silver outshone with an impressive 8% jump — raising questions among investors about whether gold is showing signs of fatigue and if it's time to pivot toward silver. "Both gold and silver have put on a fantastic show since the start of 2025; however, in the first four months, gold's pace significantly exceeded silver's. Post President Trump's 'Liberation Day' action in April, gold prices picked up a significant pace but eased as trade talks started to take place and tariff fears reduced. Silver, along with industrial metals thereafter, gained momentum and caught up to gold's pace," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold also took a hit, amidst a easing off in risk premium, ambiguity in rate cuts from the Fed, and a breather in tariff and geopolitical tensions, putting a pause in bullion's rally. Apart from these, analysts also attribute the outperformance in silver prices last month to rising industrial demand and supply deficits. Silver has unique properties of both a precious and industrial metal, which has bolstered its demand. Approximately 60% of silver's demand stems from industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, contributing to the silver price rally. Silver supply has been constrained due to underinvestment in mining, especially as silver is often a byproduct of other mined metals, said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza. This has led to a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year. Moreover, depleting inventories and a record ETF inflows of over $1.6 billion in June boosted market sentiment for the metal. "Like gold, silver serves as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, due to its smaller market size, silver often experiences more significant price swings, offering higher potential returns during bullish periods," the Bonanza analyst added. Analysts see a decline in the gold-silver ratio as a technical trigger powering the rise in silver prices. The ratio is a financial metric which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold. Investors often use the ratio to gauge whether gold or silver is relatively overvalued or undervalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is undervalued and vice versa. Silver outperformed gold in June because of the fall in gold-silver ratio from over 100 to around 92-93 (fall in the ratio leads investors to move towards silver) combined with the critical $35/ounce mark that triggered momentum and technical buying on breakout, said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One. Going ahead, the outlook for gold prices does not seem as promising, with Modi of MOSL suggesting that gold might need fresh triggers for a further boost in prices, while silver could continue to trade with a positive bias. In the near term, Modi expects silver's outperformance over gold to continue. However, he added that as gold is considered a safe haven asset and is less volatile than silver, it is always recommended to have both in an investor's portfolio and diversify it based on one's risk profile, Modi added. Mallya also believes that silver prices have the potential to outperform gold for the rest of the year, because gold is just an asset which is a safe haven, while silver is both a precious and an industrial metal. "Its usage in the automobile industry, clean energy trends and tech adoption, specifically the rise of Electric Vehicles adoption globally, ongoing tightness in supply, and possible ETF inflows in the months ahead are a combination of factors for silver to perform better in comparison to gold," said Mallya. Silver: ₹ 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets Gold: ₹ 1,10,000/10 gms in the Indian markets in the same time frame. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Irish Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Like Nixon before him, Trump is weakening the dollar in a bid to correct the US's trade deficit
August 15th, 1971 was an auspicious day in global financial history. Then-US president Richard Nixon interrupted the evening broadcast of the US's most popular TV show – Bonanza – to announce the dollar (as a currency) was delinking from gold, a move that remade the global monetary system in an instant. The announcement effectively dismantled the Bretton Woods system that had prevailed since the end of the second World War. It had pegged the dollar to the value of gold (at $35 an ounce), with the rest of the world's currencies pegged at various (adjustable) rates to the dollar. Nixon's decision to detach the US currency from gold was driven by a simple anomaly in the global financial system. The US did not have enough gold to cover the volume of dollars in worldwide circulation. READ MORE [ Trump puts US dollar's role as dominant world currency up for grabs Opens in new window ] This meant the dollar was overvalued. It also meant the US was starting to run big trade deficits (on account of imports being cheaper and exports less competitive), something the country hadn't experienced since the 19th century. The overvalued dollar was also subject to speculative runs against it, which was undermining the country's foreign trading position. Without warning, Nixon jettisoned the Bretton Woods arrangement, ushering in a system of free-floating exchange rates that still prevails today. The move also exploded what many saw as the 'Marshall Plan mindset' whereby US economic interests seemed to chime with the economic interests of its allies in Europe and elsewhere. Despite the seriousness of the announcement, Nixon apparently fretted about the potential downside of alienating those addicted to the adventures of the Cartwright family, the fictional family upon which Bonanza was based. But his advisers convinced him that the announcement had to be decisive, reach the widest possible audience and go before the markets opened the following morning. Nixon, like Donald Trump, believed the overvalued dollar was hurting US exporters and workers and blamed the rest of the world for the US's predicament. As well as abandoning gold, he announced two other measures: a 10 per cent import tax (or tariff ), designed to force countries that had a trade surplus with the US to accept the adjustment; and a new system of price and wage controls aimed controlling inflation, which had begun to surge. The 'Nixon shock' – at it was called – was a unilateral attempt to devalue the dollar and rewire the US's trading relationships while maintaining US economic hegemony. The parallels with today and the so-called 'Trump shock' are striking. The Mar-a-Lago accord, the supposed blueprint to correct the US trade deficit through deliberate dollar weakening, is key to understanding Trump's disruptive economic agenda. The dollar has lost more than 10 per cent of its value against the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc since Trump came to office in January. Like Nixon, Trump believes the strong dollar has made local manufacturing uncompetitive, forcing the US to import more, leaving it dependent on foreign countries and lumped with big trade deficits. This has been amplified by what Washington sees as China 's unfair trade practices. Approximately five million 'well-paying blue-collar jobs' have been lost in so-called Rust Belt states, Trump's power base, since 2001, the year China joined the World Trade Organisation. Another problem feeding into this, in Trump's eyes, is the US role as global policeman and underwriter of European security, which leaves it with a large military expenditure, another driver of US deficits and debt. But where the Trump/Nixon comparison falls down is the country's current debt pile: $36 trillion and counting. This is tipping into an out-of-control zone and testing the limits of the US economy's reserve status. And it can't be simply blamed on the strong dollar or rigged trading relationships. It stems – in the main – from fiscal indiscipline, fuelled by several factors, including tax cuts under Trump's first administration. The 'forever wars' in Iraq and Afghanistan – estimated to have cost the US $8 trillion – similarly are not a function of the US's role as global policeman but part of the post-9/11 'neocon' agenda. In investment parlance, bonds hedge stock market risk. What that means in practice is that when stock markets drop, investors flee to safe-haven assets such as bonds. US bonds – known as Treasuries – are backed by the globe's strongest economy and are traditionally seen as the safest of safe securities. However, this relationship has begun to fracture. After Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April, stock markets nosedived but the yield on US bonds – essentially the US government's borrowing costs – which should have fallen as investors piled in, actually rose. Soured by Trump's tariff turbulence and his 'big, beautiful' tax Bill, which will add more debt to the pile, investors sold US bonds when, historically, they should have been buying them. In what was dubbed 'America's Liz Truss moment', the negative market reaction prompted an immediate U-turn in Washington. The US bond market used to be a boringly predictable segment of global financial markets, now it's a flashpoint. Like Nixon before him, Trump is attempting to use American economic might to bend the global economy to his will, but he is being hamstrung by the country's deteriorating financial situation.
Mint
24-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold price today: MCX gold rates plunge over ₹2,600 amid a volatile Israel-Iran ceasefire
Gold price today: Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Tuesday, 24 June 2025, dropped 2.62% or by ₹ 2,606 per 10 grams amid a volatile Israel-Iran ceasefire deal mediated by the US President Donald Trump and the Qatar government. Gold futures for the August 2025 contract plummeted 2.62% or by ₹ 2,606 per 10 grams to ₹ 96,782 per 10 grams on Monday, 24 June 2025, compared to its previous level of ₹ 99,388 per 10 grams at the previous commodity market close, according to MCX data. Official data shows that as of 7:39 p.m., the MCX gold futures were 2.53% lower at ₹ 96,875 per 10 grams compared to the previous commodity market close. The Comex gold futures were down 2.28% to $3,317.5 per 100 troy ounces, as of 9:52 a.m. (CT), according to the CME Group's official data. 'During the flare-up, gold surged on investor inflows. As pacification set in, that flight reversed—spot and futures gold both sank on easing tensions,' said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza. After US President Donald Trump and the Qatari government brokered the ceasefire deal, the gold prices plummeted on Tuesday due to the easing sentiment in the Israel-Iran conflict. However, shortly after the ceasefire came into effect, media reports emerged about explosions in Iran's Tehran region. This comes after the US got involved in the conflict as Trump targeted three nuclear sites in Iran over the last weekend. Iran retaliated by attacking the US airbase in Qatar. Amid the escalating geopolitical scenario and a temporary ceasefire relief, the precious metal gold prices are indicating a bearish move in the short-term period. 'Gold prices are trading with heavy volume while momentum indicators are indicating a bearish move for the short-term period,' the commodity market expert Yadav told Mint. Even though the global gold prices were unable to cross the $3,500 levels despite the geopolitical tensions, the heavy volume and the momentum indicators are showing a bearish move. The Comex gold futures have a support at $3,200 and a resistance at ₹ 3,500, according to Nirpendra Yadav's expectations. 'With geopolitical tensions easing, attention is shifting back to fundamental drivers, which currently offer limited upside support for the yellow metal. Investors are now closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress later today and the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data on Friday,' said Aksha Kamboj, the vice president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. Bonanza's analyst Nirpendra Yadav expects the MCX gold futures for the August 2025 contract to have further support at ₹ 95,000 to ₹ 93,000 per 10 gram level, and a resistance at ₹ 99,000 to ₹ 1,00,000 per 10 gram level. 'The RSI has slipped to 64 and giving a negative divergence while MACD is showing a bearish crossover on the weekly chart. However, prices have taken support at 50-weekly SMA at 96200 levels, below this level selling pressure is likely to increase which may take the gold prices towards next support levels,' said the commodity market expert. Yadav also highlighted that the MCX remaining down for two consecutive weeks, along with a declining buying momentum, near all-time high levels, is contributing to the bearish outlook for the precious yellow metal. Read all stories by Anubhav Mukherjee
