Latest news with #BonanzaPortfolio
News18
8 hours ago
- Business
- News18
Israel-Iran War: Has Nifty Already Priced In Middle East Tensions? Experts Analyse
Last Updated: Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction Israel-Iran Conflict: Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, traded on a subdued note Wednesday amid escalating missile strikes between Iran and Israel, prompting investors to tread cautiously. As of 11:40 AM, the BSE Sensex was down 310 points or 0.38% at 81,272.93, while the NSE Nifty50 slipped 80 points or 0.32% to 24,774.30. Market experts suggest that investors may have already priced in the geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran conflict. Monday's strong market close indicates a shift in investor attention toward domestic growth drivers and corporate fundamentals. Middle East Tensions: Has the Market Priced In the Israel-Iran Conflict? According to Anubhav Sangal, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, the Indian stock market seems to be factoring in a limited conflict scenario rather than a prolonged regional war. 'The market has partially discounted the Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting both vulnerability and resilience. While initial reactions triggered volatility and sectoral churn, the overall discounting remains incomplete and highly conditional," he noted. Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research – Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, 'We believe markets have partially priced in the Iran conflict in the sense that it has taken cognisance of the conflicts, but the final outcome is still unknown and hence not priced. Believe markets are still wishful/hopeful of some kind of de-escalation coming in few days and may not have priced for any serious escalation or a potential catastrophic threshold involving US directly for the region." Analysts estimate that crude prices have jumped about 10% so far, and further escalation could push them up another 8–9%. 'Israel's airstrikes on Iran have sparked fears of supply chain disruptions. The market is anxiously watching how Iran will respond. Any retaliation could send prices soaring and push the region into a deeper crisis," said Navneet Damani, Group Senior VP and Head of Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold, meanwhile, has rallied to an all-time high of Rs 1 lakh in the domestic market and is nearing $3,500 per ounce globally, as investors shift towards safe-haven assets amid the growing geopolitical uncertainty. What Should Be Your Trading Strategy? Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction, further deterioration could lead to significant downside. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance, stay hedged, and keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, as volatility could spike sharply if tensions worsen. Anubhav Sangal of Bonanza recommends investors to treat geopolitical dips as buying opportunities. ' For now, markets are treating geopolitical dips as buying opportunities, supported by India's strong domestic fundamentals and limited direct exposure to the conflict zone," he said.
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Business Standard
15-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Investors should look at defensive plays for now: Achin Goel, Bonanza
As March 2025 quarter earnings season nears close, ACHIN GOEL, fund manager, Bonanza Portfolio, tells Sirali Gupta in an email interview that India Inc. is expected to see a recovery in the coming quarters, particularly in the consumer sector, driven by a revival in rural demand. Edited excerpts: Is border tension between India and Pakistan still a concern for the market? Indian markets have shown surprising resilience despite the recent border tensions. This is because investors were betting against a major escalation between India and Pakistan. The ceasefire is holding, but it's not just about border politics – several other positive factors are supporting the market's steady performance: progress on multiple international trade deals, encouraging AMFI data that's boosting retail participation, and growing buzz about foreign institutional investors increasing their India allocations. All these elements together explain why markets remain stable despite what could have been a major destabilising event. Easing border tensions between India and Pakistan is a significant positive for Indian investors; however, we can expect volatility due to ongoing earnings season and global uncertainties, especially tariff-related developments. We advise investors to adopt a balanced strategy focusing on defensive sectors like consumer goods and healthcare for stability, while selectively increasing exposure to domestic manufacturing sectors poised to benefit from shifting supply chains and potential policy support. Government-focused sectors like defence, renewable energy, and electric vehicle (EV) can be also considered to look into for long-term investment. What about financials? Given the current environment, the focus remains on domestic businesses, particularly within the financial sector. Banks, non-bank lenders, and other financial services continue to present compelling opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential. This sector's robust performance and critical role in the economy make it a key area of interest. How would you assess India Inc.'s performance in the March 2025 quarter (Q4-FY25)? India Inc.'s Q4-FY25 is likely to see revenue grow by 5-6 per cent, which was accelerated by consumer-driven sectors. The overall revenue for FY25 is estimated at 5 per cent, which is likely to be driven by strong performance in consumer-driven sectors like consumer discretionary products, services, and retail. The automobile sector's revenue is likely to grow 6 per cent in FY25, as retail momentum for passenger vehicles picked up and realizations rose owing to a change in the product mix and an increasing share of exports. Despite relatively flat revenue growth, operating profit margins are expected to widen, potentially reaching 8 per cent.
