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IOL News
26-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Interest rates in flux: property expert discusses potential outcomes amid uncertainty
All eyes will be on the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where it leaves the interest rates this week. Image: Bongani Shilubane/ Independent Newspapers. The outcome of Thursday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting could go either way in these uncertain times. Bradd Bendall, National Head of Sales at BetterBond, said while recent global and local economic indicators might suggest that there is room for a much-needed rate cut, the South African Reserve Bank's decision remains difficult to call. 'However, we are optimistic that the Reserve Bank will take a bold stance to lower the prime lending rate by at least 25 bps. It seems like the right time to adopt a more accommodating approach. "Inflation has been trending downwards since last year, and the US's pause on tariff measures has returned some stability to global markets. We have seen the Bank of England and the European Central Bank drop their respective repo rates by 25 bps, and we expect South Africa to follow suit,' Bendall said. He said that if the rate does drop, it will only be the second cut this year. The shift will certainly bring welcome relief to homeowners and consumers grappling with higher living expenses and fuel tax hikes, he added. BetterBond said its home loan applications have increased by 2.2% year on year, according to their May data, signalling a recovery in home buying activity after a period of stagnation. It said any further rate cuts will go a long way to boosting the housing market. 'At a time when the world is holding its breath amid global monetary policy shifts, a drop in the prime lending rate would send a strong signal that South Africa prioritises economic growth and market stability.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ On Monday morning, Reezwana Sumad, research analyst at Nedbank CIB, said the final session of last week saw the USDZAR trading at R17.93 at the open. 'Overall, the local unit posted steady gains. After having had a brief foray towards the R18 00 level, it ended the session trading at R17.84. This morning, the USDZAR is currently trading at R17.81. "The major currency pairs also traded broadly firmer over the course of the previous session, with the EURUSD trading at 1,1410 this morning from the previous open at 1,1312 and the GBPUSD at 1,3580. "Possible trading range for the USDZAR today is R17.65 to R17.95. The markets are likely to trade cautiously today, and liquidity is at a premium, as both the London and New York markets are closed. The local unit continues to trade in positive territory, as the USD remains under pressure across the board,' Sumad said. At the beginning of this month, Adrian Goslett, Regional Director and CEO of RE/MAX of Southern Africa, said he believes that the benefits of an interest rate cut at this time would outweigh the potential risks that the SARB is guarding against. Thus far, the ongoing global trade tensions and domestic economic challenges have led the SARB to adopt a cautious approach, favouring rate stability to navigate potential risks. 'Reducing the repo rate could boost consumer confidence, increase affordability, and encourage greater economic growth. Lower interest rates translate into reduced monthly repayments on home loans and other debts, putting more money back into consumers' pockets and stimulating broader economic activity. "This additional disposable income will positively impact other sectors reliant on consumer spending, driving economic growth across the board,' Goslett said. Moreover, Goslett added that an interest rate cut will send a strong positive signal to international and local investors, reinforcing confidence in South Africa's economic recovery trajectory, especially following the instability around VAT. Despite inflation being the lowest it has been since June 2020, economists widely anticipate that the SARB will keep the repo rate unchanged later this week. Independent Media Property
IOL News
16-05-2025
- Health
- IOL News
Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi addresses HIV testing decline following funding cuts
Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi says the country's HIV/ Aids programme is not collapsing despite decline in HIV testing. Image: Bongani Shilubane / Independent Newspapers Minister of Health Aaron Motsoaledi stated that while there may be a decline in HIV testing following the funding cuts by the United States' President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar), the country's HIV/Aids programme is not collapsing. This comes after Reuters reported this week that data from an unpublished document by the National Health Laboratory Service, a government entity, seen by the agency, showed that viral load testing declined by up to 21% among key groups in the last two months. For individuals with HIV undergoing anti-retroviral therapy, viral load testing quantifies the amount of virus present in their bloodstream. Viral load testing for individuals aged 15-24 declined by 17.2% in April compared to last April, after dropping 7.8% year-on-year in March. Overall population testing decreased 11.4% in April, according to Reuters. Maternal viral load testing was down 21.3% in April, after declining by 9.1% in March. Early infant diagnostic testing was also down 19.9% in April after declining by 12.4% in March. Additionally, nationwide, viral suppression rates among tested individuals decreased by 3.4% in March and 0.2% in April. Young adults experienced even greater declines, suggesting potential disruptions in patient treatment, the data showed. During a briefing on the status of the HIV/Aids and TB Campaign in South Africa, the Minister said that he has never stated that everything is fine in the country following the funding withdrawal. 'I never said everything is fine. All I said is that it's wrong to say the campaign of the HIV/Aids programme in South Africa is collapsing because it's not… If viral load testing has dropped, does it mean the collapse of the campaign by any stretch of imagination? No, we expected that some of these problems will occur, but we are sitting with them every day,' he said. According to reports, the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (Caprisa) community programmes head and Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) deputy general secretary, Patrick Mdletshe, stated that the decline in viral load testing in South Africa can be attributed to funding cuts, particularly from Pepfar. 'These cuts have significantly impacted HIV testing and treatment programmes, especially among vulnerable populations such as pregnant women, infants, and young adults,' he said. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Mdletshe said that some of the key factors contributing to the decline are reduced funding and closure of NGO-run clinics primarily funded by Pepfar, which will consequently increase the risk of HIV transmission and lead to the disruption of treatment. Professor Wolfgang Preiser, who heads the Medical Virology Department of Pathology at Stellenbosch University and the NHLS at Tygerberg Hospital, said that while they have seen a decline of test volumes for those markers recently, this decline cannot be attributed to the Pepfar cuts as there are other, parallel issues that also affect how many samples are received for testing. He said some of these parallel factors are based on internal rearrangements within the NHLS between its different laboratories. 'When looking at NHLS test figures from year to year, you should factor in the network downtime last year following the cyberattack. That is long resolved but it is reflected in test volumes still,' added Preiser. Kate Rees, public health specialist from the Anova Health Institute, said the organisation's programmes have been terminated. 'We cannot say to what extent there is a decline in the indicators. I have seen NHLS and Department of Health data that shows a decline in viral load testing nationally and HIV testing in Johannesburg. But it is not my data.' Networking HIV and AIDS Community of Southern Africa (Nacosa) spokesperson, Sophie Hobbs, said their Pepfar-funded programme that monitored viral loads of children and adolescents in the city of Cape Town has also been terminated. Hobbs said Nacosa has, as a result, not been able to collect this data. She stated that according to the latest Thembisa Model estimates, there are significant gaps for children and youth in the Western Cape, with only a 67% antiretroviral therapy coverage rate and a 73% viral suppression rate in children under 15. 'Before it was terminated, our programme in Cape Town had very good treatment adherence (100%) and viral suppression rates,' said Hobbs. The Minister further explained that of the R46.8 billion South Africa spends on the HIV/Aids programme, only R7.9bn was from Pepfar. 'It is inconceivable that out of R46.8bn spent by the country on the HIV programme, the withdrawal of R7.9bn by President Donald Trump will collapse the entire programme,' he said. The Minister said since the Pepfar funding was pulled, in the 27 high-HIV burden Pepfar-supported districts, out of 57 across the country, there are 2,772 public health facilities. He said in these 27 districts, there were only 12 specialised clinics independent from the government, managed by the NGOs providing services mainly for key populations funded by Pepfar. Key populations include transgender individuals, men who have sex with men, sex workers, and people who inject drugs. 'In these 27 districts, the total number of these key population clients served by these 12 specialised clinics was 63,322, of which 41,996 are found in the City of Johannesburg,' he said. Motsoaledi said when the Pepfar-funded clinics were closed, the Department removed their files from those clinics to the nearest public facilities. 'We can confirm that all 63,322 have been moved. Then the work to contact their owners to transfer them to public health facilities where their files are started in earnest and still continues,' he said. The Minister highlighted that there are other prominent funders like the Global Fund that have been supporting the country with health services for key populations. '34 designated facilities are funded by the Global Fund for this purpose across Gauteng, Free State, North West, Limpopo, Eastern Cape, KZN, Mpumalanga, and Western Cape.'
