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The Diplomat
22-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
When Will PNG's Parliament Finally Decide Bougainville's Status?
PNG can only kick the can down the road so far. In late June, a Papua New Guinean newspaper reported the signing of a new agreement that represents 'A step closer to the Fate of Bougainville Independence.' The headline perfectly expressed what this new development signifies and what it doesn't: Bougainville is indeed one step closer to its fate, but no one knows with any certainty what that fate will be. Meanwhile, Bougainville's independence push is playing out against the backdrop of the same geopolitical competition that is gripping the rest of the Pacific, and this latest agreement was signed on the eve of Bougainville's presidential election in September. What Is the Context? Bougainville is an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea (PNG), lying to the east of the nation's mainland, and is comprised of one main island and several smaller outlying islands and atolls. It has a population of some 300,000 people, much smaller than Papua New Guinea's total population of 11 to 17 million. In 2019, Bougainville's independence referendum was a landslide in favor of new nationhood: 97 percent voted yes, with more than 85 percent turnout. The referendum was mandated by the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA), which ended a decade of civil war between PNG and Bougainville. The referendum result was no surprise. Bougainville's independence aspirations predate PNG's own independence from Australia, and over the intervening decades, Bougainvilleans have become tired of waiting. However, according to the BPA, the result of the vote must be ratified by PNG's national parliament to take effect. In 2020, former Bougainville Revolutionary Army commander Ishmael Toroama won the Bougainville presidency on the platform of delivering the region its independence. Since then, PNG and Bougainville have been involved in a series of negotiations over the referendum's outcome; the talks have often ground to a halt and have rarely produced consensus. Toroama and PNG Prime Minister James Marape concluded the latest round of negotiations at the end of June with the Melanesian Agreement. Among other things, it guarantees that PNG will bring the results of the referendum before the national parliament for a vote. The two leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to the peace process and to a continuing close relationship between PNG and Bougainville. However, the deal doesn't offer as much as it was expected to deliver or as much as it needed to deliver. PNG and Bougainville agreed last November that they wanted to reach a consensus on Bougainville's future political status before Bougainville's presidential election, and the Melanesian Agreement fell far short of that. What Happens Next? Until now, a parliamentary vote seemed like a possibility, but it was not something that Papua New Guinea had bound itself to. With this new agreement, the PNG government has formally pledged to bring the referendum result before the national parliament, yet no timeline has been announced. Other matters remain unresolved too, including whether the parliamentary vote needs a simple majority or a two-thirds majority. This has been a major point of contention between PNG and Bougainville in years past. A two-thirds threshold would make a vote in Bougainville's favor far more difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, efforts to explore compromises on Bougainville's future political status, like free association, have gone nowhere: neither side is willing to entertain them. In many ways, PNG and Bougainville remain as deadlocked as they were in 2019. The question that looms over all the others is whether PNG's parliament will ratify the referendum result and grant Bougainville its independence or not. If it does not, it raises the likelihood that Bougainville might declare independence unilaterally. The preference is 'to get independence through consensus,' said Ezekiel Massatt, Bougainville's minister for the implementation of the independence referendum, in an interview in early July. However, if PNG delays the process, Massatt said, Bougainville has 'other options' available. Bougainville's leaders, including Toroama, have been signaling for years that if PNG does not grant Bougainville its independence, the autonomous region will simply declare independence for a third time. The government has been drafting a new national constitution, which Toroama referred to last year as 'a platform that we will be using to declare Bougainville independence.' Bougainville's previous independence declarations occurred in 1975, before Papua New Guinea's own independence from Australia, and in 1990, during the civil war. Both declarations were disregarded by the international community, but that doesn't mean Bougainville won't make another attempt, especially if its avenue through the national parliament is closed for good. Toroama has set 2027 as the final deadline for Bougainville to gain independence, indicating a willingness to ignore PNG's authority if necessary. Is Bougainville Ready? Bougainville still relies on the Papua New Guinea government for the vast majority of its budget, but Massatt dismissed claims that Bougainville should meet a particular economic threshold before independence. While he believes that work on the economy must take some precedence, he does not see it as a precondition. 'We must obtain political independence in order to have some sovereign powers in order to make strategic economic decisions,' he said. 'Australia never demanded that Papua New Guinea be economically independent' before PNG's political independence in 1975, Massatt added. Wealth from the Panguna copper mine in central Bougainville bankrolled the PNG government in the early years of its independence, once making up 45 percent of national exports. Conflict over Panguna – not only the wealth that was taken from Bougainville, but also the environmental damage from the mine – would later spark the conflict that spiraled into civil war. Panguna is currently shuttered and would likely take years to reopen. Nevertheless, Toroama said in June that it is 'the key to our economic growth.' The mine is estimated to be worth more than $80 billion. Bougainville also has a large exclusive economic zone, making fisheries a potentially promising sector, although South Pacific tuna is under threat from climate change. Not everyone thinks Bougainville is prepared for independence. A senior Bougainville government official, speaking anonymously to the Guardian last month, said that independence was 'inevitable' but that Bougainville is 'nowhere near' ready. 'We want a sovereign nation that is healthy, that is viable,' said the official. The China Card As Bougainville attempts to ready itself for nationhood, the other question is foreign aid and investment. Last year, Toroama tried to garner support from the United States – unsuccessfully – and stated that he was willing to play 'the Chinese card' if other countries didn't give Bougainville the assistance it needed. China's interests in Bougainville are threefold: economic, diplomatic, and strategic. Bougainville's mineral wealth is well-established. If it becomes an independent nation, it will have another resource valuable to China: the ability to recognize Beijing over Taipei. And finally, China has a clear strategic interest in the region, including in Bougainville's neighbor, Solomon Islands. This year, a Chinese state-owned company began extending a runway not far from Panguna, while the United States has withdrawn much of its own regional engagement. Australia remains the Pacific's largest donor, and New Zealand remains an important partner, but it wouldn't be surprising if Bougainville's leaders find themselves increasingly courted by Beijing. China is unlikely to recognize Bougainville as an independent nation prematurely, but doing so also isn't necessary to pursuing its interests. All that Beijing needs to do is foster ties with Bougainville's potential future leaders. Presidential candidate Sam Kauona ran on a pro-China platform in 2020, and later insinuated that he had received campaign money from Chinese backers. Last year, he praised former Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sovagare, who signed a controversial security pact with Beijing in 2022; Kauona indicated that he would be open to a similar agreement for Bougainville if elected president. Kauona finished at an unimpressive sixth place in 2020, earning only about a third of the votes Toroama did. Thomas Raivet – a relative newcomer backed by former Bougainville president John Momis, who was well known for his openness to China – came in third place, still with just under half the votes Toroama did. Kauona, Raivet, and Toroama are once again running in the 2025 election, but so are many other candidates, and the result is anyone's guess. It remains to be seen whether incumbency will help Toroama win re-election, or hurt him. The election will occur the first week of September. Regardless of who wins, Bougainville's next president will face pressure from the electorate to deliver on the same 2027 deadline that Toroama has been promising. Whether Papua New Guinea's parliament will let that happen is another matter – as is China's potential approach to Bougainville's next leader.
Scoop
19-07-2025
- Politics
- Scoop
Ex-Rebel Leader ‘General' Kauona Is Brimming With Confidence In Bougainville Presidential Race
Article – RNZ The former Bougainville Revolutionary Army leader says, 'This time, I'm going to win. I'm confident.'17 July 2025 , RNZ Pacific Senior Journalist Sam Kauona, a former leader of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA), wants to become president of the autonomous Papua New Guinea region. Bougainville is immersed in political campaigning as it prepares to choose 46 MPs from 404 candidates in elections shceduled for the first week of September. Seven people are contesting the presidency, including Kauona and his former BRA colleague, the incumbent President Ishmael Toroama. Kauona, who styles himself as 'General' Kauona, has in recent years been more focussed on developing a potential new gold mine, but now he wants the presidency. He ran unsuccessfully in 2020, but this time, he told RNZ Pacific, he is brimming with confidence. (This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) SAM KAUONA: This time, I'm going to do it. I'm going to get the seat. I'm going to win. I am confident. DON WISEMAN: Why? Given that you didn't do that well last time? SK: Because the government, for the last five years, did not achieve what Bougainvilleans, what we, wanted. They were concentrating on one option only. That's why it wasted the last five years, and we did not achieve anything. DW: And we're talking here about independence? SK: Oh yes. That's the only agenda for Bougainville – independence. There are many approaches that we can consider. One, there is an option in which we can work with Papua New Guinea, and there's an option that we negotiate. You know, it varies. So this government, they went for the option of negotiating for ratification [of the 2019 independence referendum]. They did not achieve what Bougainville wanted. DW: Well, what do you think they should have done? And what would you do? SK: Well, to me, I would go to exercising those powers and function that will make Bougainville realise its independent, meaning to say those powers and functions that concern sovereignty protection, sovereignty rights. Exercising those powers, Bougainville can be able to reach her destiny by exercising the powers of foreign affairs, currency, number two and number three, exercising the powers to protect ourselves – security, defence. In the Peace Process, those powers and functions were reserved for Papua New Guinea. We were not independent at that time, but after the referendum, people voted not for autonomy to be with Papua New Guinea, but they voted to become independent, on their own, exercising the sovereign right. It means that with the referendum achieving independence, the door to exercising those rights, sovereign rights, was open. It was open. It was closed during the peace process, when it was open, we should have put into policies necessary functions. For example, the defence. You see Bougainville is not protected. We are not protected at this point of time, there is fatal incidents happening south to north. We need to exercise the power of security – establishing defence, establishing police powers and functions, protecting our people, our natural resources, our sea boundaries. Of course, whatever we do, we have to consult with Papua New Guinea and establish those functions. Currency, [is] another function that we should be able to now establish our own banks [and] currency, so that we can be able to achieve the level of independence. DW: So you're not talking about making a unilateral declaration or anything like that. You're still talking about negotiating a solution with Port Moresby? SK: Not negotiating, but coming up with a plan, a strategy, that will accommodate Papua New Guinea to participate. When accommodating Papua New Guinea, we need to see Papua New Guinea we are on one side. There is still a common enemy out there: BCL, CRA, Rio Tinto using the system, and then they subjugated us with all their systems, the laws. And here, when we come up with a plan of exercising our rights, Papua New Guinea is part and parcel of that. We need to compensate Papua New Guinea. We need to support Papua New Guinea, also in the economy which, which was incurred during the crisis conflict. They borrowed so much funding, so we should be sharing. DW: What you're talking about, still, is negotiation, isn't it? Bougainville can't do these things you're talking about unless it reaches some sort of a deal with Papua New Guinea, and it's going to need the money. SK: Correct. We need money. Bougainville is full of resources. We are rich in natural resources. But how we manage our resources is a different dimension this time. Before, we were under all those colonial laws, and when we are free now we should be able to come up with the laws to protect our natural resources and use it wisely, together with whoever invests, that comes in. But here, I'm trying to say, not so much negotiation, but it's a plan that Bougainville needs to do. The plan is to be user friendly with Papua New Guinea. And of course, for us, we have won it. We have won the political battle. We need to set away. We need to have a compass that we need to navigate with, and that compass, we Bougainvilleans, we have it in our hands, and that has to be a user friendly direction that we close out. Papua New Guinea will have to be drawn in, we have to participate in that, yes, to a level, it is negotiating, but it is like, you know, we have to lead the way. We have to come up with a plan [that's] user friendly. Not just for Papua New Guinea, let me say that. It is friendly to our Pacific countries, our neighbours, Australia, New Zealand. In terms of security, we will have to make sure that we secure our region together, not just Bougainville, together with the countries that are around us. That's why we need a defence force that is not really big, but enough to protect its internal affairs, internal issues.
Scoop
19-07-2025
- Politics
- Scoop
Ex-Rebel Leader 'General' Kauona Is Brimming With Confidence In Bougainville Presidential Race
17 July 2025 Sam Kauona, a former leader of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA), wants to become president of the autonomous Papua New Guinea region. Bougainville is immersed in political campaigning as it prepares to choose 46 MPs from 404 candidates in elections shceduled for the first week of September. Seven people are contesting the presidency, including Kauona and his former BRA colleague, the incumbent President Ishmael Toroama. Kauona, who styles himself as 'General' Kauona, has in recent years been more focussed on developing a potential new gold mine, but now he wants the presidency. He ran unsuccessfully in 2020, but this time, he told RNZ Pacific, he is brimming with confidence. (This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) SAM KAUONA: This time, I'm going to do it. I'm going to get the seat. I'm going to win. I am confident. DON WISEMAN: Why? Given that you didn't do that well last time? SK: Because the government, for the last five years, did not achieve what Bougainvilleans, what we, wanted. They were concentrating on one option only. That's why it wasted the last five years, and we did not achieve anything. DW: And we're talking here about independence? SK: Oh yes. That's the only agenda for Bougainville - independence. There are many approaches that we can consider. One, there is an option in which we can work with Papua New Guinea, and there's an option that we negotiate. You know, it varies. So this government, they went for the option of negotiating for ratification [of the 2019 independence referendum]. They did not achieve what Bougainville wanted. DW: Well, what do you think they should have done? And what would you do? SK: Well, to me, I would go to exercising those powers and function that will make Bougainville realise its independent, meaning to say those powers and functions that concern sovereignty protection, sovereignty rights. Exercising those powers, Bougainville can be able to reach her destiny by exercising the powers of foreign affairs, currency, number two and number three, exercising the powers to protect ourselves - security, defence. In the Peace Process, those powers and functions were reserved for Papua New Guinea. We were not independent at that time, but after the referendum, people voted not for autonomy to be with Papua New Guinea, but they voted to become independent, on their own, exercising the sovereign right. It means that with the referendum achieving independence, the door to exercising those rights, sovereign rights, was open. It was open. It was closed during the peace process, when it was open, we should have put into policies necessary functions. For example, the defence. You see Bougainville is not protected. We are not protected at this point of time, there is fatal incidents happening south to north. We need to exercise the power of security - establishing defence, establishing police powers and functions, protecting our people, our natural resources, our sea boundaries. Of course, whatever we do, we have to consult with Papua New Guinea and establish those functions. Currency, [is] another function that we should be able to now establish our own banks [and] currency, so that we can be able to achieve the level of independence. DW: So you're not talking about making a unilateral declaration or anything like that. You're still talking about negotiating a solution with Port Moresby? SK: Not negotiating, but coming up with a plan, a strategy, that will accommodate Papua New Guinea to participate. When accommodating Papua New Guinea, we need to see Papua New Guinea we are on one side. There is still a common enemy out there: BCL, CRA, Rio Tinto using the system, and then they subjugated us with all their systems, the laws. And here, when we come up with a plan of exercising our rights, Papua New Guinea is part and parcel of that. We need to compensate Papua New Guinea. We need to support Papua New Guinea, also in the economy which, which was incurred during the crisis conflict. They borrowed so much funding, so we should be sharing. DW: What you're talking about, still, is negotiation, isn't it? Bougainville can't do these things you're talking about unless it reaches some sort of a deal with Papua New Guinea, and it's going to need the money. SK: Correct. We need money. Bougainville is full of resources. We are rich in natural resources. But how we manage our resources is a different dimension this time. Before, we were under all those colonial laws, and when we are free now we should be able to come up with the laws to protect our natural resources and use it wisely, together with whoever invests, that comes in. But here, I'm trying to say, not so much negotiation, but it's a plan that Bougainville needs to do. The plan is to be user friendly with Papua New Guinea. And of course, for us, we have won it. We have won the political battle. We need to set away. We need to have a compass that we need to navigate with, and that compass, we Bougainvilleans, we have it in our hands, and that has to be a user friendly direction that we close out. Papua New Guinea will have to be drawn in, we have to participate in that, yes, to a level, it is negotiating, but it is like, you know, we have to lead the way. We have to come up with a plan [that's] user friendly. Not just for Papua New Guinea, let me say that. It is friendly to our Pacific countries, our neighbours, Australia, New Zealand. In terms of security, we will have to make sure that we secure our region together, not just Bougainville, together with the countries that are around us. That's why we need a defence force that is not really big, but enough to protect its internal affairs, internal issues.
RNZ News
17-07-2025
- Politics
- RNZ News
Ex-rebel leader 'General' Kauona is brimming with confidence in Bougainville presidential race
The former leader of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Sam Kauona. Photo: RNZ Pacific / Johnny Blades Sam Kauona, a former leader of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA), wants to become president of the autonomous Papua New Guinea region. Bougainville is immersed in political campaigning as it prepares to choose 46 MPs from 404 candidates in elections shceduled for the first week of September. Seven people are contesting the presidency, including Kauona and his former BRA colleague, the incumbent President Ishmael Toroama. Kauona, who styles himself as 'General' Kauona, has in recent years been more focussed on developing a potential new gold mine, but now he wants the presidency. He ran unsuccessfully in 2020, but this time, he told RNZ Pacific, he is brimming with confidence. (This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) SAM KAUONA: This time, I'm going to do it. I'm going to get the seat. I'm going to win. I am confident. DON WISEMAN: Why? Given that you didn't do that well last time? SK: Because the government, for the last five years, did not achieve what Bougainvilleans, what we, wanted. They were concentrating on one option only. That's why it wasted the last five years, and we did not achieve anything. DW: And we're talking here about independence? SK: Oh yes. That's the only agenda for Bougainville - independence. There are many approaches that we can consider. One, there is an option in which we can work with Papua New Guinea, and there's an option that we negotiate. You know, it varies. So this government, they went for the option of negotiating for ratification [of the 2019 independence referendum]. They did not achieve what Bougainville wanted. DW: Well, what do you think they should have done? And what would you do? SK: Well, to me, I would go to exercising those powers and function that will make Bougainville realise its independent, meaning to say those powers and functions that concern sovereignty protection, sovereignty rights. Exercising those powers, Bougainville can be able to reach her destiny by exercising the powers of foreign affairs, currency, number two and number three, exercising the powers to protect ourselves - security, defence. In the Peace Process, those powers and functions were reserved for Papua New Guinea. We were not independent at that time, but after the referendum, people voted not for autonomy to be with Papua New Guinea, but they voted to become independent, on their own, exercising the sovereign right. It means that with the referendum achieving independence, the door to exercising those rights, sovereign rights, was open. It was open. It was closed during the peace process, when it was open, we should have put into policies necessary functions. For example, the defence. You see Bougainville is not protected. We are not protected at this point of time, there is fatal incidents happening south to north. We need to exercise the power of security - establishing defence, establishing police powers and functions, protecting our people, our natural resources, our sea boundaries. Of course, whatever we do, we have to consult with Papua New Guinea and establish those functions. Currency, [is] another function that we should be able to now establish our own banks [and] currency, so that we can be able to achieve the level of independence. DW: So you're not talking about making a unilateral declaration or anything like that. You're still talking about negotiating a solution with Port Moresby? SK: Not negotiating, but coming up with a plan, a strategy, that will accommodate Papua New Guinea to participate. When accommodating Papua New Guinea, we need to see Papua New Guinea we are on one side. There is still a common enemy out there: BCL, CRA, Rio Tinto using the system, and then they subjugated us with all their systems, the laws. And here, when we come up with a plan of exercising our rights, Papua New Guinea is part and parcel of that. We need to compensate Papua New Guinea. We need to support Papua New Guinea, also in the economy which, which was incurred during the crisis conflict. They borrowed so much funding, so we should be sharing. DW: What you're talking about, still, is negotiation, isn't it? Bougainville can't do these things you're talking about unless it reaches some sort of a deal with Papua New Guinea, and it's going to need the money. SK: Correct. We need money. Bougainville is full of resources. We are rich in natural resources. But how we manage our resources is a different dimension this time. Before, we were under all those colonial laws, and when we are free now we should be able to come up with the laws to protect our natural resources and use it wisely, together with whoever invests, that comes in. But here, I'm trying to say, not so much negotiation, but it's a plan that Bougainville needs to do. The plan is to be user friendly with Papua New Guinea. And of course, for us, we have won it. We have won the political battle. We need to set away. We need to have a compass that we need to navigate with, and that compass, we Bougainvilleans, we have it in our hands, and that has to be a user friendly direction that we close out. Papua New Guinea will have to be drawn in, we have to participate in that, yes, to a level, it is negotiating, but it is like, you know, we have to lead the way. We have to come up with a plan [that's] user friendly. Not just for Papua New Guinea, let me say that. It is friendly to our Pacific countries, our neighbours, Australia, New Zealand. In terms of security, we will have to make sure that we secure our region together, not just Bougainville, together with the countries that are around us. That's why we need a defence force that is not really big, but enough to protect its internal affairs, internal issues.
RNZ News
16-07-2025
- Politics
- RNZ News
Bougainville election: More than 400 candidates vie for parliament
Voting is to start on 2 September, finishing a week later - depending on the weather. Photo: RNZI / Johnny Blades More than 400 candidates have put their hands up to contest the Bougainville general election in September, hoping to enter parliament. Incumbent President Ishmael Toroama is among the 404 people lining up to win a seat. Bougainville is involved in the process of achieving independence from Papua New Guinea - an issue expected to dominate campaigning, which lasts until the beginning of September. Voting is scheduled to start on 2 September, finishing a week later, depending on the weather. Seven candidates - all men - are contesting the Bougainville presidency. This number is down from when 25 people stood, including two women. Photo: Supplied/ FB -Autonomous Bougainville Government Toroama is seeking a second term and is being challenged by his former colleague in the leadership of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Sam Kauona. Kauona is one of several contesting a second time, along with Thomas Raivet and a former holder of the Bougainville Regional Seat in the PNG parliament, Joe Lera. There are 46 seats to be decided, including six new constituencies. Two seats will have 21 candidates: the northern seat of Peit and the Ex-Combatants constituency. Several other constituencies - Haku, Tsitalato, Taonita Tinputz, Taonita Teop, Rau, and Kokoda - also have high numbers of candidates.
