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Yahoo
21-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
‘Can't Miss' Women's 2025 March Madness games on Friday and Saturday
The women's NCAA Tournament 28-game feast across Friday and Saturday is one of the most highly anticipated TV stretches of the sports year. You should watch as many games as you can, but if you need to prioritize, here are the 'can't-miss' ones to watch, informed by predictions and projections from 's Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, Ben Pickman and Mark Schindler. Games are listed chronologically within each section and all game times are listed in ET. Like offense? Then keep a close eye on this No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup in the Spokane 4 Region. The Wildcats score 113.4 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Fairfield is 10th in NET rating. The Stags are fourth nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage and shoot tons of 3-pointers. Fairfield has emerged as a power in the midmajor conferences but is hungry for its first NCAA Tournament victory in school history. Another offensive dream. Both teams rank in the top 20 nationally in offensive rating but do so in dramatically different ways. Richmond relies on layups and 3s, while Georgia Tech thrives in the midrange, and the Yellow Jackets make up for their low volume of free throws and triples by never turning over the ball. They neutralize each other's strengths. The Spiders allow a lot of 3s, but Georgia Tech doesn't take them. Richmond doesn't foul, but the Yellow Jackets don't usually get to the line anyway. It should come down to who makes more jump shots, which should be a blast. This will be a great first-round matchup if for nothing else than the contrasting styles. Does that make it the best? Not sure. But it certainly makes it interesting. The Lady Vols run a high-tempo, chaotic, heavy subbing system that thrives on its pace disrupting opponents (80 possessions per game). But USF loves to slow it down and has averaged just 66 points a game this season en route to the American Conference tournament title. This will be UT coach Kim Caldwell's second NCAA Tournament game, while USF coach Jose Fernandez will make his 13th appearance with the Bulls. Montana State isn't your typical mid-major. Only four players are listed shorter than 6 feet. Though the Bobcats' press is key, they're no slouch defending in the halfcourt either, using a lot of switching to contain the ball, which is not all that dissimilar from what you might see watching the WNBA. (This game is ranked the No. 2 most likely first-round upset by 's Bracket Breaker research analysts.) Florida Gulf Coast is a trendy upset pick every season thanks to its unique style of play, one that has been maintained even after coach Karl Smesko left for the Atlanta Dream. The Eagles take the most valuable shots and deny opponents free throws and 3s. They won their first-round games in 2022 and 2023 and lost in 2024 by three points. If a No. 14 seed was ever to win an NCAA Tournament game (with Oregon State also earning a No. 14 seed in its first season as a midmajor), this is the year. Boasting the nation's 10th-best offensive rating, per Basketball Reference, South Dakota State is lethal with a top-notch post player, Brooklyn Meyer. She excels as a scorer and facilitator on the block, and the team is creative in getting her touches. Almost every player in the rotation can shoot the ball at a high level, with three players in the top five of minutes played while shooting over 40 percent from deep during conference play. They move the ball, take care of it and don't often waste second-chance opportunities or extra possessions. Looking for a double-digit seed who could advance to the Sweet 16? The Crimson could be that team. Harvard has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 80.1 points per 100 possessions. They force nearly 11 steals per game and average 22.6 points off turnovers per contest, the 12th-most nationally. Add in the fact that the Crimson don't turn over the ball often and feature one of the most dynamic scorers in the country in senior guard Harmoni Turner, and Harvard looks like a potential second weekend participant. Ranked the No. 1 most likely first-round upset by 's Bracket Breaker research analysts. This article originally appeared in The Athletic. Sports Business, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament 2025 The Athletic Media Company
New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
‘Can't Miss' Women's 2025 March Madness games on Friday and Saturday
The women's NCAA Tournament 28-game feast across Friday and Saturday is one of the most highly anticipated TV stretches of the sports year. You should watch as many games as you can, but if you need to prioritize, here are the 'can't-miss' ones to watch, informed by predictions and projections from The Athletic's Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, Ben Pickman and Mark Schindler. Games are listed chronologically within each section and all game times are listed in ET. Advertisement Like offense? Then keep a close eye on this No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup in the Spokane 4 Region. The Wildcats score 113.4 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Fairfield is 10th in NET rating. The Stags are fourth nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage and shoot tons of 3-pointers. Fairfield has emerged as a power in the midmajor conferences but is hungry for its first NCAA Tournament victory in school history. – Ben Pickman Another offensive dream. Both teams rank in the top 20 nationally in offensive rating but do so in dramatically different ways. Richmond relies on layups and 3s, while Georgia Tech thrives in the midrange, and the Yellow Jackets make up for their low volume of free throws and triples by never turning over the ball. They neutralize each other's strengths. The Spiders allow a lot of 3s, but Georgia Tech doesn't take them. Richmond doesn't foul, but the Yellow Jackets don't usually get to the line anyway. It should come down to who makes more jump shots, which should be a blast. – Sabreena Merchant This will be a great first-round matchup if for nothing else than the contrasting styles. Does that make it the best? Not sure. But it certainly makes it interesting. The Lady Vols run a high-tempo, chaotic, heavy subbing system that thrives on its pace disrupting opponents (80 possessions per game). But USF loves to slow it down and has averaged just 66 points a game this season en route to the American Conference tournament title. This will be UT coach Kim Caldwell's second NCAA Tournament game, while USF coach Jose Fernandez will make his 13th appearance with the Bulls. – Chantel Jennings Montana State isn't your typical mid-major. Only four players are listed shorter than 6 feet. Though the Bobcats' press is key, they're no slouch defending in the halfcourt either, using a lot of switching to contain the ball, which is not all that dissimilar from what you might see watching the WNBA. – Mark Schindler Advertisement (This game is ranked the No. 2 most likely first-round upset by The Athletic's Bracket Breaker research analysts.) Florida Gulf Coast is a trendy upset pick every season thanks to its unique style of play, one that has been maintained even after coach Karl Smesko left for the Atlanta Dream. The Eagles take the most valuable shots and deny opponents free throws and 3s. They won their first-round games in 2022 and 2023 and lost in 2024 by three points. If a No. 14 seed was ever to win an NCAA Tournament game (with Oregon State also earning a No. 14 seed in its first season as a midmajor), this is the year. – Sabreena Merchant Boasting the nation's 10th-best offensive rating, per Basketball Reference, South Dakota State is lethal with a top-notch post player, Brooklyn Meyer. She excels as a scorer and facilitator on the block, and the team is creative in getting her touches. Almost every player in the rotation can shoot the ball at a high level, with three players in the top five of minutes played while shooting over 40 percent from deep during conference play. They move the ball, take care of it and don't often waste second-chance opportunities or extra possessions. – Mark Schindler Looking for a double-digit seed who could advance to the Sweet 16? The Crimson could be that team. Harvard has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 80.1 points per 100 possessions. They force nearly 11 steals per game and average 22.6 points off turnovers per contest, the 12th-most nationally. Add in the fact that the Crimson don't turn over the ball often and feature one of the most dynamic scorers in the country in senior guard Harmoni Turner, and Harvard looks like a potential second weekend participant. – Ben Pickman Ranked the No. 1 most likely first-round upset by The Athletic's Bracket Breaker research analysts.
New York Times
18-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The most likely upsets in the Midwest Region for the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
The Midwest doesn't feature a game with upset odds greater than 30 percent. (Well, fine, greater than 30.2 percent.) But that doesn't mean there aren't some fascinating matchups. In fact, this region is home to the likeliest No. 4-vs.-No. 13 upset on our board. Below, you'll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don't cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams' basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can't tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you're interested in how our model works, check out this piece. Advertisement Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice. More Bracket Breakers: Men's Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | South | East | Women's Top 10 Upsets Upset Chance: 30.2 percent Clemson's 27-6 record this year, including wins over Duke and Kentucky, is actually a bit unlucky. It also includes four losses by three or fewer points. And Slingshot likes the Tigers: They're No. 23 in our power ratings, take care of the ball and hit the offensive boards. But, for the second straight year, our model loves McNeese. Like every Will Wade team, the Cowboys rope extra possessions, ranking 18th in the country in forcing turnovers and 42nd in offensive rebounding. They don't take a lot of 3s, but have shown the ability to — as we like to put it — play the chameleon, and launch bombs more often when they need to take risks. In two games against SEC opponents (both close losses), McNeese attempted more than 40 percent of its shots from long range. The Cowboys also disrupt their opponents into using 18.6 seconds per possession, 19th longest in the NCAA. History shows that slow killers, like McNeese, have had some success against favorites who are particularly effective on the perimeter, like Clemson. Of the 10 games most similar to this matchup in our database, underdogs won three, and were outscored by just 5.2 points per 100 possessions. One comp in particular should set off alarm bells for Clemson: 11-seed North Carolina State's victory over 6-seed Texas Tech last year. The Red Raiders liked to keep things very slow, and so do the Tigers (64.4 possessions per game, ranking 327th). Clemson vs. McNeese might struggle to break 60 possessions. And that's good news for the underdog. Upset Chance: 28.8 percent Advertisement Purdue has the eighth-best offense in the country, according to Slingshot. And while there are reasons to like the Panthers, they don't seem to share many characteristics of successful underdogs — they don't force many turnovers, for example, or shoot many 3s. So why the high chance of an upset? The answer lies deep inside Slingshot's calculations, where it uses a method called decision-tree analysis to determine which metrics are important for particular kinds of teams. You see, when a team falls below certain levels of performance in certain areas, other qualities no longer matter. Take Tarleton State as an example. They forced turnovers on 22.3 percent of opponent possessions this year, the third-best rate in the country. But they're so bad on offense (and overall) that even if that number were 25 percent, or an unimaginable 40 percent, it wouldn't give them meaningfully better real-life odds of beating Houston or Duke, had they reached the tourney. Slingshot's decision trees let it keep and use only the data that has actually been significant historically for specific kinds of teams. And it turns out that High Point branches off just above the thresholds for a whole range of variables to matter. Purdue is a 4-seed, but ranks just 63rd in defensive efficiency, because the Boilermakers allow opponents to shoot a whopping 56.4 percent from 2-point range, ranking 350th. Purdue also ranks just 150th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. And it plays at a very slow pace (65 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 297th). Against Akron, for instance, these considerations would hardly come into play. But High Point is just strong enough and plays at a slow enough tempo for those weaknesses to make a non-dominant giant like Purdue vulnerable in the first round. In fact, of the 10 games in our database most similar to Purdue vs. High Point, underdogs won four times. And in the most similar game of all — really, a dead ringer — 14-seed Mercer beat 3-seed Duke in 2014. Vulnerable generic giants are one of the themes of this year's tournament. And this faceoff is worth at least a long look. Upset Chances: 26.9 percent vs. Xavier; 21.4 percent vs. Texas Look, we're fully capable of giving a TED Talk on Old Dominion's offensive rebounding stats in 2010, so when we say there's not a lot to say here, we really mean it. Our model says Illinois is the 15th-strongest team in the NCAA and the 22nd-strongest favorite. That there's a difference of less than 1 point per 100 possessions between the basic strengths of Texas and Xavier. And none of these teams has any particularly dominant David or Goliath traits. The Musketeers rate as the somewhat stronger underdog because the Longhorns are somewhat worse at forcing turnovers, but that's about it. This is where the field could have used a squad or two of the type we call 'wounded assassins' — power-conference programs that are underrated, usually because of double-digit losses, but have strong metrics. Like, say, Ohio State or SMU this season. (But not West Virginia, which, just FYI, ranks nine spots below North Carolina in our power ratings and has even more boring over- and underdog stats than either Texas or Xavier.) In this case, what you see with traditional stats is what you get. From a giant-killing perspective, it's the least sexy spot in this year's bracket. Advertisement Upset Chance: 17.6% Basic numbers show a yawning gap of nearly 25 points per 100 possessions in strength between Kentucky, the 12th best team in the country according to our model's power ratings, and Troy, which clocks in at 106th. But the Trojans do everything a team can to narrow that difference in a win-or-go-home setting. They keep things slow (ranking 229th in adjusted pace). They shoot a lot of 3s (even though they've been terrible at making them). They grab extra possessions—the Sun Bult champs have the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country, at 38.6 percent. And, led by PG Tayton Conerway, who's third in the nation with a 5.7 percent steal percentage, they constantly force live-ball turnovers. They're a possession-building machine. And Kentucky isn't. The Wildcats' offensive rebounding percentage (just 28.7 percent) ranks 221st in the country. Their offense (123.8 adjusted points per 100 possessions) is extremely efficient anyway, but the lack of a rebounding buffer against a cold-shooting night raises a significant red flag in our statistical model. Kentucky forces very few turnovers (ranking 341st), which compounds that problem. And they take and allow 3-point shots at very high rates, which injects risk into their play — as the Wildcats learned in losses to lesser teams such as Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Mark Pope has done a terrific job revamping UK, and Kentucky has had to overcome injuries to key players. But the Wildcats still carry some of the traits that left them vulnerable to traumatic first-round upsets in 2024 and 2022. And the Trojans are an aggressive bunch with a shot at turning into this year's Oakland. Upset Chance: 5.6 percent Hey, the Cougars have a shot here! Anyone remember when UCLA crushed UNC-Asheville, 86-56, in 2023? Or when Baylor pulverized Norfolk State, 85-49, the year before? These were top-2 seeds that were excellent on the perimeter and decided not to mail in their first-round contests against much weaker, stylistically plain opponents. And that's what Slingshot sees here. In fact, of the 10 most similar games in our database to this matchup, favorites won all 10 … by an average margin of 37.3 points per 100 possessions. Fairly frequently, a 15- or 16-seed will pop out of our spreadsheets as an intriguing deep longshot. Not this year. The very top seeds are highly safe, and the very bottom seeds are extremely doomed. Upset Chance: 5 percent Even when the SoCon sends the team that was seeded sixth in its conference tournament to the big dance, you can be sure it launches a ton of bombs, and Wofford does (47.7 percent 3PA/FGA, ranking 23rd). And, yes, they have a great story in Kyler Filewich, the big man who has made the gutsy decision to shoot free throws underhanded. But Wofford allows almost as many long-range shots as it takes, and can't defend outside (34.5 3P% allowed, ranking 234th) or inside (51.9 2-point FG% allowed, ranking 218th). They also force few turnovers. And in Tennessee, they're up against one of the half-dozen best teams in the nation — and a squad that happens to limit opponents to shooting only 27.8 percent on 3s, the lowest rate in the nation. If Wofford starts to get trendy, buck the trend. (Top photo of Sincere Parker:; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
New York Times
18-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The most likely upsets in the East Region for the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
The East Region is home to our model's second-favorite upset. Can VCU topple BYU (and keep going from there)? Below, you'll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don't cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams' basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can't tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you're interested in how our model works, check out this piece. Advertisement You'll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup. Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice. More Bracket Breakers: Men's Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | South | Midwest (coming soon) | Women's Top 10 Upsets Upset Chance: 43.1 percent The more things change in college basketball, the more they stay the same. VCU is on its third head coach since Shaka Smart left for Texas, and the Rams still epitomize the quintessential giant killer. Ryan Odom's system may not be the same as the Havoc of VCU's Final Four run, but it produces similar results, particularly on defense. VCU forces turnovers on 20.6 percent of opponents' possessions and holds foes to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation (44.4 percent). If that's not enough, the Rams employ bracket-breaking tactics on offense, too, taking 47 percent of their shots from three-point range (27th in the nation) and grabbing 36.7 percent of their own misses (12th). It's almost as if Slingshot conjured their existence. That's the first case in favor of VCU. The second is far more basic: The Rams are simply almost as well as the Cougars. BYU is ranked 24th by with an adjusted net rating of +22.4; VCU is 30th at +20.6. A difference of fewer than two points per 100 possessions is minimal, to say the least. Then there's our model's similar games function. Six of the 10 historical Bracket Breakers games most similar to this one ended in an upset, including last year's matchup between Duquesne and … BYU. With all of these signs pointing toward VCU, it's a wonder that BYU is even favored. But the Cougars are a strong team, featuring the country's 11th-rated offense and 28th-ranked defensive rebounding, which means it will be strength on strength at both ends of the floor. The Cougars could get themselves in trouble due to their reliance on 3-point shooting (especially against VCU's perimeter defense), but the Cougars hit 37 percent of those shots, so if they're cooking, they'll be a tough out for anyone, let alone VCU. Advertisement It's also worth noting that if you like VCU to beat BYU, you might as well take them to reach the Sweet 16. Our model gives the Rams a 44.3 percent chance of knocking off Wisconsin. Upset Chance: 31.4 percent Last week, we identified Oregon as one of Slingshot's most vulnerable high seeds, largely because the Ducks fall into a statistical family we call 'Generic Giants.' In the simplest terms, they don't do any single thing particularly well, using a fairly well-rounded approach to beat most teams, but without any of the possession-building characteristics that are the hallmark of safer favorites. These types of teams fall at a much higher rate in the tournament, and that's the main reason why the upset odds are so high for this game. In fact, it has very little to do with Liberty. The Flames actually have a negative 'secret sauce' — our model's statistical adjustment based on how much an underdog resembles successful killers of the past. They do have one weapon going for them: They shoot a ton of 3s (48 percent of shots) and make them at a 39.5 percent clip, led by Taelon Peter (13.9 ppg, 46.6 3PT%). Importantly, four of the 10 most similar games ended in upsets, including two of the top three (Texas/Northern Iowa in 2016 and Providence/Dayton in 2015). Upset Chance: 13.9 percent Speaking of teams Slingshot doesn't like, it also had words for Wisconsin last week. The Badgers may have reinvented their offense, but they've also adopted a style that's not conducive to safety — heavily reliant on 3-pointers, poor offensive rebounding and not a lot of forced turnovers. But Montana offers even fewer positive qualities when it comes to generating upsets. The Grizzlies are even worse at offensive rebounding (347th in the country) and forcing turnovers (290th). In fact, they don't stop anyone, allowing an abysmal 110.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions (250th in the nation). That's why they lost by 31 points to Oregon, by 35 against Tennessee and by 28 (allowing 104 points) to Northern Iowa. Advertisement None of the 10 most similar games in our model ended in an upset. And this one isn't likely to either. Upset Chance: 12.1 percent This has been a trendy upset pick among various pundits, but Slingshot doesn't share their enthusiasm. It sees Arizona as a really good team — ninth in our basic power ratings — that also boosts its safety with outstanding offensive rebounding (35.9 percent, 19th in the country). Meanwhile, the model is less enthusiastic about the Zips. Yes, they're a high-volume 3-point shooting team (45.4 percent of field-goal attempts), and the Johnson and Johnson backcourt of Nate (14 ppg) and Tavari (13 ppg, 39 percent 3PT) is dangerous. But Akron has several flaws. The Zips play too fast (successful underdogs tend to favor a slower style), and they don't excel on the boards or in forcing turnovers. Only one of the 10 most similar games ended in an upset, and most of the other nine were blowouts for the favorite. Upset Chance: 6.3 percent Robert Morris is named after the 'financier of the American Revolution.' But unless his university can start financing a lot more NIL money, the Colonials can't hang with the likes of Alabama. Mark Sears and Co. play at the nation's fastest pace, score inside and out, and grab 34.7 percent of their rare misses. That's just too much for Robert Morris, although any team with a 6-foot-7, 185-pound wing who blocks 2.4 shots per game gets our respect. (Kudos, Amarion Dickerson.) Upset Chance: American, 6.4 percent; St. Mary's, 4.1 percent With or without Cooper Flagg, don't expect the Blue Devils to struggle against either potential opponent. None of the 10 most similar games — for either potential matchup — ended in an upset. American is ranked 237th at KenPom and lost by 52 points to North Carolina (whom you might recall losing to Duke three times). Mount St. Mary's is 250th and turns the ball over on 22 percent of its own possessions, the sixth-worst mark in Division I. (Top photo of Ryan Odom:; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
New York Times
17-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The most likely upsets in the South region for the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
Brackets explode most spectacularly when both sides of a matchup cooperate to produce an upset. And the South will provide multiple chances for that to happen: Two favorites with glaring weaknesses are set to face the region's two strongest underdogs, pending the results of a play-in game. Below, you'll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the South. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don't cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams' basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can't tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you're interested in how our model works, check out this piece. Advertisement You'll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup. Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice. More Bracket Breakers: Men's Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | Women's Top 10 Upsets Upset Chance: 43.2 percent for San Diego State; 32 percent for UNC Maybe not often, but sometimes, in statistics, as in life, things are simple. We write this over and over (and over): When it comes to top seeds and potential Cinderellas, the single most important thing a top dog can do to ward off pesky upstarts is to secure offensive rebounds. Hit the offensive boards hard, and a team can prevent prolonged dry spells. Well, Ole Miss ranks an abysmal 313th in the country with a 25.4 offensive rebounding percentage. That won't buy them any early-round insurance. Further, because Mississippi doesn't produce a possession advantage at either end of the court, it falls into the category of favorites we call 'Generic Giants.' This group is significantly more vulnerable to early upsets. And it's easy to find recent historical comparisons for a slow-paced, defensively efficient squad like the Aztecs knocking off teams that statistically resemble Ole Miss. North Carolina State over Marquette last year, Iowa State over Wisconsin in 2022 and Rhode Island over Creighton in 2017 are a few that popped up in Slingshot's similarity scores. With giant and underdog characteristics and matchups factored in, the gap in strength between these teams nearly disappears. It's just that simple. Meanwhile, North Carolina is not our model's idea of a dangerous underdog for reasons unrelated to blue blood. The Tar Heels play fast (over 70 possessions per game). They don't force turnovers (15.2 percent of opponent possession, ranking 310th). They don't hoist tons of threes (37 percent of attempts). Indeed, Slingshot estimates that UNC's statistical profile would cost it 7.6 points per 100 possessions in a tournament scenario against an average upper seed. That's a pretty steep penalty. Yet our model gives North Carolina a nearly one-in-three shot to win this matchup anyway. Despite the difference in their seeds, UNC is almost as strong as Mississippi straight-up in our power rankings. And Ole Miss just doesn't build possessions. Again, this one is simple. Advertisement Upset Chance: 37.3 percent The announcement of this matchup during the NCAA Tournament selection show set off klaxons, red lights, buzzing phones — every kind of alarm here at Bracket Breakers Central. We've had our eyes on the Tritons for months. They've risen impressively from Division II, putting together a roster of smart, efficient players like Hayden Gray, who leads the nation in steal percentage, and star guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 ppg). UC San Diego specializes in disrupting opponents' defense and has built a ginormous advantage in possessions from its turnover differential: 23.4 percent for its opponents vs. only 13.4 percent for the Tritons. And now they face Michigan, the team that's probably most associated with 'turnover issues,' as coach Dusty May keeps having to talk about it in postgame press conferences. The Wolverines rank 328th in turnover rate on offense — 328th! That's terrible, and often lethal, for any upper seed looking to advance by playing safely. Early this season, Michigan was able to win despite turning the ball over on more than one of every five possessions because they were shooting the lights out. But that's not sustainable. And the Wolverines' problems with throwing the ball away don't seem fixable anytime soon, particularly when they play a starting lineup that features two 7-footers (Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin). We've got a nearly irresistible force meeting quite a movable object. And in the 10 games most similar to this contest in our database, underdogs won in four of the matchups, including Florida Atlantic over Kansas State in 2023. History could very well repeat itself — if, that is, UC San Diego actually winds up as the dog in this game. We're not so sure they should be. Upset Chance: 16.6 percent If our model could be distracted by interesting statistical cases, it could waste entire days staring at the data for these teams. Texas A&M is comically extreme in its inability to execute on offense. The Aggies lose the ball on 18.8 percent of possession (ranking 249th), shoot terribly from inside (48 percent, ranking 283rd), and are even worse from long range (31.7 percent, ranking 317th). Yet they rank 44th in the nation in offensive efficiency because they've got a massive 42 percent offensive rebounding percentage, the best in the country. As was true last year, their best offensive play is probably a missed shot. And this season, their defense is dramatically better at cutting off opponents' shooting. Advertisement Yale, meanwhile, went 13-1 in the Ivy League, which had three of the worst teams in college basketball and never really tested the Bulldogs. And they've got some risk-averse statistical traits that our model dislikes in underdogs, like an emphasis on protecting the ball rather than forcing turnovers, and on defensive rather than offensive rebounding. But James Jones' teams have played diverse styles over the years. Yale can shoot 3s (38.5 percent) when it needs to and launched 26 against Purdue, their toughest opponent of the season. Three of the 10 most similar games to this matchup in our database were won by the lower seeds. And Texas A&M can go dry for long stretches. Yale has a puncher's chance here, but maybe not as good of one as some pundits think. Upset Chance: 10.8 percent Ah, they grow up so fast. Three years ago, in T.J. Otzelberger's first year at the helm, Iowa State leapt from 2 to 22 wins, including two big tournament upsets, by embracing chaos and forcing opponents into truckloads of turnovers. The Cyclones just kept getting better, morphing quickly from David into Goliath. Now, they're still disrupting opposing offenses (turnovers on 21.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 14th), but also rebounding at both ends and shooting 3s selectively and well. They're a top-20 team in offensive efficiency, top-10 on defense, and looked like a legitimate title contender — until they lost Keshon Gilbert to a strained groin. Now, the Cyclones' upside is severely limited. Against this, Lipscomb offers a mixed bag of tricks. They keep things slow and hoist a lot of 3s (ranking 26th in 3PA/FGA) but force few turnovers (15.8 percent of opponent possession, ranking 270th) and grab very few of their own missed shots (24.1 percent OR%, ranking a woeful 329th). That mix doesn't yield anything like the secret sauce it would take to close the gap of more than 20 points per 100 possessions between these teams in our basic power ratings. Upset Chances: 3.3 percent for Alabama St.; 4 percent for St. Francis As it updates its calculations, Slingshot has to respect the fact that 15- and 16-seeds have been winning more first-round games in recent years. However, St. Francis was founded in 1799 by an emigrant Russian priest named Demetrius Augustine Gallitzin, and we're pretty sure even he wouldn't have thought the Red Flash, clearly the worst team in the field of 68, have a 4 percent chance to beat Auburn. (Fun fact: The New York version of St. Francis shut down all its athletic programs in 2023, but we all still specify that this school is St. Francis of PA.) They rate slightly higher than the SWAC champions as a giant killer because they play a little slower and shoot a few more 3s. But not well. Upset Chance: 3.2 percent Advertisement Let's take a moment to salute the Bulldogs, a fun bunch that crushed three straight opponents in the America East tournament, thereby ending Vermont's decade-long reign as the archetypical schoolyard bully. Bryant's got some size and works the boards. But they're an even mangier underdog than the 16-seeds in this region because of their tempo. Motoring at 73.1 possessions per game, the sixth-fastest pace in the country, they simply run themselves out of games against better opponents. This is a team that gave up 112 points to Grand Canyon, 99 to St. John's and 90 to, yes, Siena. That's no way to compete with Michigan State, which is typically excellent on the defensive glass and around the perimeter and has the fifth-best defense in the country. (Photo of Hayden Gray, Justin Rochelin and Yaqub Mir: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
