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New York Times
27-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
With NCAA Tournament underdogs dwindling, can Arkansas keep Cinderella dancing?
NCAA Tournament fans know that look. The eye-catching garments, the stylish hair, the sleek, slip-on shoes … only it usually isn't John Calipari in the role of Cinderella. And yet, with the Sweet 16 set to begin Thursday, here we are. Where are the actual upsets this year? A whopping 13 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, leaving very little room for serious underdogs. Right now the men's bracket looks a lot more like a quirky news segment at Reed College than Villanova in 1985. Given that Bracket Breakers looks at potential upsets in games between teams separated by at least five seeds, our upset-minded model, Slingshot, doesn't have many more stones to fire. Advertisement Brief as it will be, we hope you enjoy this Sweet 16 preview, because if this NCAA men's tournament holds to form, it may be the last pre-game analysis you will get from us this year. We do, however, have one deep dog left to consider. Upset chance: 16.6 percent We don't miss much — just ask us! But we have mentioned that this tournament seemed to be short on 'wounded assassins,' our term for power-conference squads that get dinged by bad luck and/or injuries, rack up double-digit losses and land lower seeds than their actual strength warrants (like NC State last year). That's because we – and Slingshot – underestimated Arkansas. The Razorbacks' year-long stats don't reveal many traits common to successful longshots of the past. But they are playing so much better than they were two months ago that we can't ignore their improvement. Arkansas began this season with a cast of transfers and freshmen, ranking 323rd in minutes continuity, per KenPom. Then they sustained a rash of injuries. By January, the Razorbacks seemed to be falling apart, as they lost their first five SEC games. But starting on Feb. 1 with a win at Kentucky, Arkansas went 8-5 against conference opponents, 10 of whom ranked among the top 50 teams in the nation. Seeded 10th, they then topped No. 7 seed Kansas and No. 2 St. John's in this tournament. That pluckiest of Cinderellas, Calipari has the Razorbacks playing at the top of their form. And they're getting players back, including guard Boogie Fland (14.2 points per game, 5.4 apg) and now forward Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg). Let's face it, last time out, Arkansas was also fortunate to face an opponent whose performance constituted the worst meltdown of the tournament so far. St. John's couldn't hit a layup or make an entry pass, shot 36 percent from 2-point range and a hard-to-believe 9 percent from behind the arc. Even harder to believe was the lackluster defense and its motivational genius head coach benching its best player. Then they started heaving 3s too early while surrendering easy buckets at the end of the game. No favorite can overcome that many issues. Advertisement So give credit to Arkansas where it's due, but don't expect the Razorbacks to get an extension on their loan. Even against St. John's, they didn't display the giant-killing tactics that Slingshot looks for: They forced just six turnovers and shot a horrid 2-for-19 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, our model sees Texas Tech as the seventh-best team in the country, and a strong favorite. Although it's often hard to see because of their slow pace, the Red Raiders have the fifth-most efficient offense in Division I (125.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions). They take care of the ball (24th in turnover rate) and grab their own misses (59th in offensive rebounding). Past favorites who statistically resemble Texas Tech have also been safer than teams like St. John's, at least when it comes to facing teams similar to Arkansas. In the 10 closest matchups to this game in our database, the underdog won just once. A final data point: If the refs decide to muck up this contest as thoroughly as they did the Arkansas-St. John's game – where they called 44 fouls – the Red Raiders will probably not be as disrupted as badly as the Red Storm. While St. John's ranked just 334th in two-foul participation rate (the percentage of time a starter with two first-half fouls has been allowed to play), Texas Tech is 58th. In this day and age, it's no great insult to say that the Razorbacks have already played well enough to keep funds flowing from the chairman of Tyson Foods to this program. But Slingshot doesn't see them having too much time left on the cluck.
New York Times
20-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to fill out NCAA tournament brackets fast, and smart, to win March Madness pools
Sometime Thursday morning, wedged in your inbox between that really great sports newsletter and an HR email on the latest round of compliance training, there will materialize a critical missive from your NCAA Tournament office pool maestro. 'Reminder,' it will chide the tardy. 'Brackets lock when the tournament tips off at noon ET.' Advertisement That's when the cold sweat begins, and adrenaline surges through your body: You forgot to fill out your bracket. By the time Gael from Marketing approaches your desk for your usual $7 craft coffee break, you're yelling at him like Jack Bauer making threats on '24': 'Caramel macchiatos, Gael??? There's no time!' You don't need caffeine. You need bracket advice. Fast. Fear not. We've got you covered. Here's how to fill out your bracket in five minutes flat and look smart in the process using The Athletic's trove of tourney tips. (Heck, if you want, just scroll to the bottom and crib our picks from the bracket. We won't tell.) Own your bracket pool with The Athletic Team scouting reports | Top upset picks | Best bracket advice For the single most important pick you'll make for any standard-scoring pools, focus on four teams that most resemble the nine most recent NCAA tournament champions: Auburn, Houston and moneyline co-favorites Florida and Duke. The Blue Devils are favored by The Athletic's Austin Mock's model, which simulates the outcome of possible tournament games 200,000 times. But don't dance with the Devils just yet. Don't go crazy though: No team lower than a No. 8 seed has ever won the championship. If you think picking a No. 9 seed or lower is smart, you probably also think it's fine to reheat fish in the office microwave. It's not. Don't be that person. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Sammy. A bracket of straight chalk/No. 1 picks has proven correct just once (2008). So which favorite is most likely to fall short this year? Mock has all of their Final Four odds at 19 percent or better. A combo of these five is unique but sane. Even that dude from accounting who hates the unexpected — what's his name again? Pete? — would appreciate the spreadsheets of The Athletic's Bracket Breaker team of Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating. In the interest of, ahem, speed, welcome to Round 2: Likewise, it's onward for unbowed favorites: Bracket Breakers Regional Breakdowns West | South | Midwest | East Clock's ticking, and you've got an 11:30 Zoom with corporate about the latest TPS reports. We need some lightning-round action for teams we're not picking to go deep. To fill in the final slots, apply a combo platter of the key insights from above: ID the weaknesses for favorites, use projections to guide your general thinking and, when teams are reasonably comparable, side with the underdog. Slot the remaining favorites to their ultimate endpoints — Arizona (Sweet 16), Alabama (Elite Eight), Maryland (Sweet 16) — and voila. May your five-minute-or-less masterpiece bring you victory so you can treat Gael to one of those $7 frapps you skipped. In the meantime, exhale, mop up that residual flop sweat and soak in the following bracket, filled out with the more conservative picks outlined in the advice above. (Photo of Johni Broome and Walter Clayton Jr.: Todd Kirkland, James Gilbert / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic)
New York Times
18-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The most likely upsets in the East Region for the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
The East Region is home to our model's second-favorite upset. Can VCU topple BYU (and keep going from there)? Below, you'll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don't cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams' basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can't tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you're interested in how our model works, check out this piece. Advertisement You'll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup. Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice. More Bracket Breakers: Men's Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | South | Midwest (coming soon) | Women's Top 10 Upsets Upset Chance: 43.1 percent The more things change in college basketball, the more they stay the same. VCU is on its third head coach since Shaka Smart left for Texas, and the Rams still epitomize the quintessential giant killer. Ryan Odom's system may not be the same as the Havoc of VCU's Final Four run, but it produces similar results, particularly on defense. VCU forces turnovers on 20.6 percent of opponents' possessions and holds foes to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation (44.4 percent). If that's not enough, the Rams employ bracket-breaking tactics on offense, too, taking 47 percent of their shots from three-point range (27th in the nation) and grabbing 36.7 percent of their own misses (12th). It's almost as if Slingshot conjured their existence. That's the first case in favor of VCU. The second is far more basic: The Rams are simply almost as well as the Cougars. BYU is ranked 24th by with an adjusted net rating of +22.4; VCU is 30th at +20.6. A difference of fewer than two points per 100 possessions is minimal, to say the least. Then there's our model's similar games function. Six of the 10 historical Bracket Breakers games most similar to this one ended in an upset, including last year's matchup between Duquesne and … BYU. With all of these signs pointing toward VCU, it's a wonder that BYU is even favored. But the Cougars are a strong team, featuring the country's 11th-rated offense and 28th-ranked defensive rebounding, which means it will be strength on strength at both ends of the floor. The Cougars could get themselves in trouble due to their reliance on 3-point shooting (especially against VCU's perimeter defense), but the Cougars hit 37 percent of those shots, so if they're cooking, they'll be a tough out for anyone, let alone VCU. Advertisement It's also worth noting that if you like VCU to beat BYU, you might as well take them to reach the Sweet 16. Our model gives the Rams a 44.3 percent chance of knocking off Wisconsin. Upset Chance: 31.4 percent Last week, we identified Oregon as one of Slingshot's most vulnerable high seeds, largely because the Ducks fall into a statistical family we call 'Generic Giants.' In the simplest terms, they don't do any single thing particularly well, using a fairly well-rounded approach to beat most teams, but without any of the possession-building characteristics that are the hallmark of safer favorites. These types of teams fall at a much higher rate in the tournament, and that's the main reason why the upset odds are so high for this game. In fact, it has very little to do with Liberty. The Flames actually have a negative 'secret sauce' — our model's statistical adjustment based on how much an underdog resembles successful killers of the past. They do have one weapon going for them: They shoot a ton of 3s (48 percent of shots) and make them at a 39.5 percent clip, led by Taelon Peter (13.9 ppg, 46.6 3PT%). Importantly, four of the 10 most similar games ended in upsets, including two of the top three (Texas/Northern Iowa in 2016 and Providence/Dayton in 2015). Upset Chance: 13.9 percent Speaking of teams Slingshot doesn't like, it also had words for Wisconsin last week. The Badgers may have reinvented their offense, but they've also adopted a style that's not conducive to safety — heavily reliant on 3-pointers, poor offensive rebounding and not a lot of forced turnovers. But Montana offers even fewer positive qualities when it comes to generating upsets. The Grizzlies are even worse at offensive rebounding (347th in the country) and forcing turnovers (290th). In fact, they don't stop anyone, allowing an abysmal 110.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions (250th in the nation). That's why they lost by 31 points to Oregon, by 35 against Tennessee and by 28 (allowing 104 points) to Northern Iowa. Advertisement None of the 10 most similar games in our model ended in an upset. And this one isn't likely to either. Upset Chance: 12.1 percent This has been a trendy upset pick among various pundits, but Slingshot doesn't share their enthusiasm. It sees Arizona as a really good team — ninth in our basic power ratings — that also boosts its safety with outstanding offensive rebounding (35.9 percent, 19th in the country). Meanwhile, the model is less enthusiastic about the Zips. Yes, they're a high-volume 3-point shooting team (45.4 percent of field-goal attempts), and the Johnson and Johnson backcourt of Nate (14 ppg) and Tavari (13 ppg, 39 percent 3PT) is dangerous. But Akron has several flaws. The Zips play too fast (successful underdogs tend to favor a slower style), and they don't excel on the boards or in forcing turnovers. Only one of the 10 most similar games ended in an upset, and most of the other nine were blowouts for the favorite. Upset Chance: 6.3 percent Robert Morris is named after the 'financier of the American Revolution.' But unless his university can start financing a lot more NIL money, the Colonials can't hang with the likes of Alabama. Mark Sears and Co. play at the nation's fastest pace, score inside and out, and grab 34.7 percent of their rare misses. That's just too much for Robert Morris, although any team with a 6-foot-7, 185-pound wing who blocks 2.4 shots per game gets our respect. (Kudos, Amarion Dickerson.) Upset Chance: American, 6.4 percent; St. Mary's, 4.1 percent With or without Cooper Flagg, don't expect the Blue Devils to struggle against either potential opponent. None of the 10 most similar games — for either potential matchup — ended in an upset. American is ranked 237th at KenPom and lost by 52 points to North Carolina (whom you might recall losing to Duke three times). Mount St. Mary's is 250th and turns the ball over on 22 percent of its own possessions, the sixth-worst mark in Division I. (Top photo of Ryan Odom:; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
