How to fill out NCAA tournament brackets fast, and smart, to win March Madness pools

New York Times

20-03-2025

Sometime Thursday morning, wedged in your inbox between that really great sports newsletter and an HR email on the latest round of compliance training, there will materialize a critical missive from your NCAA Tournament office pool maestro.
'Reminder,' it will chide the tardy. 'Brackets lock when the tournament tips off at noon ET.'
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That's when the cold sweat begins, and adrenaline surges through your body: You forgot to fill out your bracket.
By the time Gael from Marketing approaches your desk for your usual $7 craft coffee break, you're yelling at him like Jack Bauer making threats on '24': 'Caramel macchiatos, Gael??? There's no time!'
You don't need caffeine. You need bracket advice. Fast. Fear not. We've got you covered. Here's how to fill out your bracket in five minutes flat and look smart in the process using The Athletic's trove of tourney tips. (Heck, if you want, just scroll to the bottom and crib our picks from the bracket. We won't tell.)
Own your bracket pool with The Athletic
Team scouting reports | Top upset picks | Best bracket advice
For the single most important pick you'll make for any standard-scoring pools, focus on four teams that most resemble the nine most recent NCAA tournament champions: Auburn, Houston and moneyline co-favorites Florida and Duke. The Blue Devils are favored by The Athletic's Austin Mock's model, which simulates the outcome of possible tournament games 200,000 times. But don't dance with the Devils just yet.
Don't go crazy though: No team lower than a No. 8 seed has ever won the championship. If you think picking a No. 9 seed or lower is smart, you probably also think it's fine to reheat fish in the office microwave. It's not. Don't be that person. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Sammy.
A bracket of straight chalk/No. 1 picks has proven correct just once (2008). So which favorite is most likely to fall short this year?
Mock has all of their Final Four odds at 19 percent or better. A combo of these five is unique but sane.
Even that dude from accounting who hates the unexpected — what's his name again? Pete? — would appreciate the spreadsheets of The Athletic's Bracket Breaker team of Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating.
In the interest of, ahem, speed, welcome to Round 2:
Likewise, it's onward for unbowed favorites:
Bracket Breakers Regional Breakdowns
West | South | Midwest | East
Clock's ticking, and you've got an 11:30 Zoom with corporate about the latest TPS reports. We need some lightning-round action for teams we're not picking to go deep.
To fill in the final slots, apply a combo platter of the key insights from above: ID the weaknesses for favorites, use projections to guide your general thinking and, when teams are reasonably comparable, side with the underdog.
Slot the remaining favorites to their ultimate endpoints — Arizona (Sweet 16), Alabama (Elite Eight), Maryland (Sweet 16) — and voila. May your five-minute-or-less masterpiece bring you victory so you can treat Gael to one of those $7 frapps you skipped. In the meantime, exhale, mop up that residual flop sweat and soak in the following bracket, filled out with the more conservative picks outlined in the advice above.
(Photo of Johni Broome and Walter Clayton Jr.: Todd Kirkland, James Gilbert / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic)