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CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Russia's ruble rockets: The curious case of the world's best-performing currency this year
In the midst of a long-drawn war, declining oil prices, stiff sanctions, and an economy that's on the downhill, Russia's ruble has been rising. In fact, it is the world's best-performing currency so far this year, according to Bank of America, with gains of over 40%. The ruble's stunning rally in 2025 marks a sharp reversal from the past two years when the currency had depreciated dramatically. What's powering the Russian currency? The strength in the ruble has less to do with a sudden jump in foreign investors' confidence than with capital controls and policy tightening, market watchers told CNBC. The weakness in the dollar comes as an added bonus. Brendan McKenna, international economist and foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo, lists three reasons for the ruble's rally. "The central bank has opted to keep rates relatively elevated, capital controls and other FX restrictions have tightened a bit, and [there's been] some progress or attempt at progress in finding a peace between Russia and Ukraine." Russia's central bank has maintained a restrictive stance to curtail high inflation, keeping domestic interest rates high at 21% and tightening credit. The steep borrowing costs are deterring local businesses from importing goods, in turn reducing demand for foreign currency among Russian businesses and consumers, said industry watchers. There's been a decline in foreign currency demand from local importers, given weak consumption and the adequate supply of ruble, said Andrei Melaschenko, an economist at Renaissance Capital. That decline has given the ruble a boost as banks don't need to sell rubles to buy the dollar or yuan. Russian exporters need to be paid in rubles, or at least convert dollar payment into rubles, thereby increasing demand. Importers, on the other hand, have stopped purchasing foreign goods, and so do not need to sell rubles to pay in dollars. In the first quarter of 2025, there was an "overstocking" in consumer electronics, cars and trucks which were actively imported in the second half of last year in anticipation of the increase in import duties, said the Moscow-based economist. The consumer activity cooldown was primarily in the durable goods sector, which made up a sizable portion of Russia's imports, Melaschenko said. Another key reason the Russian ruble has strengthened this year is that Russian exporters, in particular the oil industry, have been converting foreign earnings back into rubles, analysts said. The Russian government requires large exporters to bring a portion of their foreign earnings back into the country and exchange them for rubles on the local market, according to the government. Between January and April, the sales of foreign currencies by the largest exporters in Russia totaled $42.5 billion, data from CBR showed. This is almost a 6% jump compared to the four months before January. CBR shrinking money supply is also supporting ruble, said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. In August 2023, the rate of growth in the money created by the CBR was soaring at 23.9% per year, he said. This figure has turned negative since January — currently contracting at a rate of -1.19% per year, said Hanke. Further, hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump had also sparked some optimism, said Wells Fargo's McKenna. Expectations of Russia's reintegration into the economy had prompted some capital flows back into ruble-denominated assets, in spite of the capital controls, which have supported the currency's strength to some extent. Despite the ruble's current strength, analysts caution that it may not be sustainable. Oil prices—a major pillar of Russia's export economy — have fallen significantly this year, which could weigh on FX inflows. "We believe that the ruble is close to its maximum and may begin to weaken in the near future," Melaschenko said. "Oil prices have fallen significantly, which should be reflected in a decrease in export revenue and the sale of its foreign currency component," he added. While peace talks between Russia and Ukraine recently have not wielded any concrete developments, McKenna also noted that a concrete peace deal could erode ruble's strength as the controls such as the FX restrictions that have supported the currency might be lifted. "Ruble can selloff pretty rapidly going forward, especially if a peace or ceasefire is reached," he said. "In that scenario, capital controls probably get fully lifted and the central bank might cut rates rather quickly," he added. Exporters are also seeing slimmer margins, industry analysts noted, in particular the country's oil sector against the backdrop of declining global oil prices. The government, too, is feeling the squeeze — lower oil prices combined with a stronger ruble are eroding oil and gas revenues. The government's finances are highly sensitive to fluctuations in crude prices, with oil and gas earnings making up around 30% of federal revenues in 2024, according Heli Simola, senior economist at the Bank of Finland. "The Ministry of Finance has been forced to lean more heavily on the National Welfare Fund to cover spending," Melaschenko said. "And there may be further cuts to non-priority expenditures if this trend continues." That said, aside from the oil trade, Russia has been mostly isolated from the global marketplace. "Meaning, a weaker RUB does not add much to Russia's trade competitiveness," said McKenna.
Irish Independent
19-05-2025
- General
- Irish Independent
Deadline for submissions on planned 75km Sligo/Leitrim greenway has been extended
The deadline for submissions has been extended to Tuesday 3 June 2025 with all information available on the website The extension of time follows in-person events held in Sligo, Dromahair and Belcoo last week where more than 175 people attended The 75km greenway will honour the old railway line linking settlements along the way. The greenway will provide a safe space for local and visiting walkers and cyclists as a strategic and scenic route for people to come, stay, visit and explore the region. The publication of the Emerging Preferred Corridor marks public consultation no 3 for the project. Brendan McKenna from Leitrim County Council, senior executive engineer to the project said: "The emerging preferred corridor has now been published for the greenway. It sets out the area where the preferred route is likely to be. It is important we hear from local communities and landowners as their insight is invaluable to help inform the design. 'Last week we had important and engaging conversations. Local people told us about their land and communities - the history, stories and even folklore. We heard everything from farm operations, contours of the land, recreational use, how people live in their homes, link with neighbours and movement of water, wildlife and traffic. "We ask everyone to share their views with us via the website or with the project liaison officers out on the ground before 3 June.' The 75km greenway will run from Enniskillen in Fermanagh to Sligo town via Leitrim and Cavan passing through Letterbreen, Belcoo, Glenfarne, Manorhamilton, Dromahair, Ballintogher, Ballygawley and Collooney and onwards to Ballysadare and Sligo town. Leitrim County Council, is working in partnership with Sligo County Council, Cavan County Council, Fermanagh and Omagh District Council to develop the SLNCR Railway Greenway. This is under the auspices of Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) and Department of Infrastructure in Northern Ireland. Arup has been appointed by Leitrim County Council as consultants for engineering and other consultancy services to bring the project through the planning process to tender for construction.
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq plunge, Dow drops 1,300 points as Trump's tariffs rip through global markets
US stocks cratered on Thursday, with the Dow tumbling more than 1,300 points as President Trump's surprisingly steep "Liberation Day" tariffs sent shockwaves through markets worldwide. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting roughly 5.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank over 4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled 3.2%. Among megacap techs, Apple (AAPL) shares fell over 9% amid concerns about disruption to its supply chain. China, the source of key iPhone components, was hit with additional US tariffs that raised its overall rate to 54%. Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks also tumbled thanks to similar concerns. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks that led the market rally over the past two years were on pace to shed roughly $800 billion in market cap. Small cap stocks were also hit during the session as the Russell 2000 (^RUT) index declined more than 5.6%, on track to close in bear market territory. The two-step approach to tariffs unveiled by Trump on Wednesday imposes a baseline rate of 10% on all US trading partners but applies extra duties to countries considered "bad actors" on trade — meaning they face much higher rates. The levies go into effect on April 5 and April 9, respectively. In total, some 185 counties are impacted by the tariffs, and the new duties set the effective US tariff rate at its highest level in over 100 years. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Stocks around the world sold off as the likelihood of retaliation from trading partners fueled fears of a full-on trade war and a severe hit to global growth. The pan-European benchmark Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) sank over 2.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 (^N225) slumped 2.7% to its lowest level since August. Meanwhile, shares in retailers such as Target (TGT), and Nike (NKE) were clobbered, with both seeing double digit declines. President Trump's shocking tariff announcement on Wednesday has markets reeling as investors, economists, and the public try to make sense of how these actions will weigh on the US and global economy in the months ahead. In a note to clients on Thursday, economists at Wells Fargo led by Brendan McKenna wrote, "Liberation Day will also be a strong test of our deglobalization and fragmentation view." The firm added (emphasis added): Because while Trump's new tariff program announced Wednesday may well be the start of what Wells calls an "escalate to negotiate" strategy, the scope and scale of the administration's tariff plans make clear the international trading order that previously dictated global business logic is over. And serves as the kind of distinct break that cannot be put back together by future administrations, no matter their own trade goals. "We have also observed clear signs of global economic fragmentation — our view that the global economy is fracturing into two distinct economic blocs: one led by the U.S. and one led by China — is a trend that is likely to gather momentum in the years ahead as a result of Liberation Day," the firm added. "Taking deglobalization and fragmentation a step further, in addition to a decisive shift away from China over the years, the Trump administration has also signaled a shift away from Europe this year... Point being, Liberation Day could also mark an inflection point in fragmentation." In Wells' view, this shift away not only from China but Europe creates a potential "tri-polar" economic order in which multiple distinct blocs of economic cooperation cross-tariff one another. Leading to a world potentially more fragmented in its trade goals, more fractured in its geopolitical agreements, and more expensive for businesses and consumers. RH stock (RH) is getting shellacked today on the double misfortunes of a weak outlook and new tariffs. Shares of the luxury home furnishings retailer fell nearly 40% as of midday trading. The stock is now trading at its lowest level since 2020. On Wednesday after the market close, RH reported that it sees revenue growing 10% to 13% for the fiscal year, below Wall Street's expectations. Its quarterly results also disappointed, with revenue coming in at $812.4 million and adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share. Meanwhile, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, which are likely to affect RH's supply chain. According to the company's annual report, it sources 72% of its products from Asia, 18% from North America, and 10% from Europe and other countries. The extent of the stock's decline after hours stunned RH CEO Gary Friedman, who reacted partway through the earnings call: "Oh shit, OK," he said midsentence. "I just looked at the screen. I hadn't looked at it. It got hit when I think the tariff came out and everybody can see in our 10-K where we're sourcing from. So it's not a secret and we're not trying to disguise it by putting everything in an Asia bucket." As we've been writing all day, things are pretty ugly in the stock market on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is down more than 4.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down about 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has fallen nearly 3%, or over 1,000 points. Amid a sea of red, there are still some stocks moving higher. The Consumer Staples (XLP) sector, considered a defensive sector that investors flock to when concerned about the economic growth outlook, is the lone sector in the green, up about 0.9%. Lamb Weston (LW) — most well-known for its frozen potato products — is the leading performer in the S&P 500, up more than 8%. Dollar General (DG) and Kroger (KR) were both up more than 4%. Phillip Morris (PM), a maker of cigarettes and other popular nicotine products like Zyn, was up more than 3% and also among the top performers in the benchmark index. As the chart below shows, this trade had already started playing out during the recent sell-off, with Lamb Weston, Kroger, and Phillip Morris all in positive territory over the past month while the S&P 500 sank. And as the selling over economic growth fears intensified on Thursday, so too did the buying into companies investors expect will keep chugging along even if consumers curb their spending. President Trump far exceeded Wall Street's worst fears with his "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, prompting many strategists to reconsider their previously optimistic outlooks. "Whether the Bull Market has ended and a Bear Market has begun will be contingent on all politicians' response, domestic and foreign, to 'Liberation Day,'" Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. "Our base case is that the Bull Market is being severely tested but will remain intact." Thursday's losses intensified a monthlong sell-off in stocks that had already prompted several Wall Street strategist to temper their expectations for the S&P 500. Now, with Trump's large tariffs further clouding the outlook, strategists are mapping out how much further the benchmark index could sink. Read more here. Investors are rerating their expectations for the Federal Reserve as President Trump's hefty tariffs are expected to weigh on US economic growth. Markets are now pricing in four interest rate cuts for 2025, up from the range of two or three just a week prior, per Bloomberg data. Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note Thursday morning that he expects the Fed to cut "at least four times." Dutta believes the lag in growth from tariffs will become the paramount concern rather than the potential upside to inflation. Homebuilder stocks struggled on Thursday as President Trump's tariff plans threw a major wrench into the sector, fueling fears that higher construction costs could slow the housing recovery. D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), the biggest US homebuilder, was down 3% Thursday, while Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) fell more than 4%, respectively. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) also declined 5%. Trump unveiled the details of his major tariff plan on Wednesday, offering exemptions for Canada and Mexico which provided relief to the two biggest trading partners. However, China remains in the crosshairs, still facing the full brunt of the new tariffs, with rates now well above 50% on many goods. Steel, aluminum, and other metals are exempt, and lumber was also spared from the new measures. 'While the complexity of these reciprocal tariffs makes it hard to estimate the overall impact on housing, they will undoubtedly raise some construction costs," NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes said in a statement following President Trump's tariff announcement. "However, NAHB is pleased President Trump recognized the importance of critical construction inputs for housing and chose to continue current exemptions for Canadian and Mexican products, with a specific exemption for lumber from any new tariffs at this time," Hughes added. Tech and Consumer Discretionary stocks led market losses on Thursday with "Magnificent 7" stocks plummeting following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. E-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) declined more than 9% while iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) sank more than 8%, nearing a wipeout of almost $300 billion in market cap. The Trump administration's newly announced tariffs include levies on imported goods from China to the tune of 54%, while products from Vietnam include duties of 46%. Nvidia (NVDA) sank more than 6% after the AI giant was also downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC. Medical device stocks fell on Thursday amid a broader market sell-off pinned to the Trump administration's sweeping reciprocal tariffs. GE Healthcare stock (GEHC) tumbled more than 10% while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was down more than 2% in early trading. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Economic activity in the services sector slowed more than expected in March. New data from the Institute of Supply Management out Thursday showed its services PMI decreased to 50.8 in March, down from 53.5 in February. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the sector; readings below indicate a contraction in activity. "Despite an increase in comments on tariff impacts and continuing concerns over potential tariffs and declining governmental spending, there was a close balance in near-term sentiment, between panelists with good outlooks and those seeing or expecting declines," Steve Miller, the chair of Institute for Supply Management, wrote in the release. Given President Trump's larger-than-expected tariff announcements on Wednesday have already spooked fears about economic growth slowing, Oxford Economics senior US economist Matthew Martin wrote that Thursday's release will "exacerbate concerns over the health of the economy." "An initial assessment of the impact of recent tariff announcements will lead us to lower our growth forecast markedly," Martin wrote. "Odds are the economy avoids a recession, but it will be dangerously vulnerable." Stock losses accelerated on Thursday morning as the Trump administration's tariffs against US trading partners sparked fears that a trade war will lead to an economic slowdown or recession. By 10:40 a.m. ET, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) had tanked as much as 5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked more than 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled more than 3.5% — over 1,500 points. Consumer Discretionary stocks were getting slammed during the session, with e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) down more than 9%. Gold futures (GC=F) pulled back from their record high on Thursday morning but were still outperforming the rest of the commodity complex as investors reacted to President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Futures fell more than 1% amid an overall market sell-off. Meanwhile, copper (HG=F) sank nearly 4% over fears of deteriorating demand in an escalating trade war. Other commodities also fell following Trump's announcement on Wednesday imposing tariffs on its trading partners. Oil sank more than 7% with losses accelerating after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it will hike oil supplies more than expected in May. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi writes: Read more here. Stocks tanked on Thursday morning in reaction to President Trump's broad reciprocal tariff announcement, sparking fears of a looming recision amid a full-blown trade war. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted more than 4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled nearly 3% — over 1,100 points. From retail to Big Tech, equities across the board tumbled. Megacap giants like Apple (AAPL) sank more than 7% over concerns of a disruption to supply chains in China, the source of key iPhone components. Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks also declined amid similar concerns. Meanwhile, oil futures tanked more than 7% after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. The prospect of a trade war sparking a slowdown — or worse, a recession sent commodities lower across the board. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi writes: Read more here. Oil futures tanked more than 6% on Thursday morning after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell to hover below $67 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, declined to $70. The oil cartel's decision to add 411,000 barrels a day to the market next month steepened losses in futures contracts after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on its trading partners. While energy was exempt from the levies announced on Wednesday, the move escalated the trade war, raising concerns about global demand. The tariffs sparked fears of economic slowdown, affecting oil markets. Tariffs on goods imported from China now total 54%. The Asian country is the world's largest importer of crude oil. "54% tariff on China is a significant negative surprise. The tariffs on growing emerging economies that contribute most to crude demand growth (not absolute demand) are getting hit the hardest," CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin told Yahoo Finance. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 219,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending March 29, down from 225,000 the week prior and below the 225,000 economists had expected. Meanwhile, 1.9 million continuing claims were filed, up by 56,000 from the week prior. This marked the highest level of continuing claims for unemployment benefits since November 2021. In a separate release from data from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed job cuts soared in February to 275,240 in March, up from 172,017 in February. More than 216,000 of those cuts were related to Elon Musk's Department of Government of Efficiency (Defforts. 'Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,' Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a release. Auto stocks fell in premarket trading Thursday as President Trump's 25% auto tariffs took effect. However, the losses weren't as severe as in other sectors like tech and retail. Tesla stock (TSLA) led the declines, dropping 5.8%, as smaller sales of its EVs in Germany and yesterday's deliveries number also weighed on the stock. Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday on reports that CEO Elon Musk would step back from his government role in the coming weeks. As for the Big Three automakers, General Motors stock (GM) fell 2.7%, Ford (F) declined 2%, and Stellantis (STLA) was down 1.3%. European automakers BMW ( Mercedes-Benz ( and Volkswagen ( all fell 2%, while Ferrari (RACE) and Porsche ( were down over 1%. Hyundai (HYMTF) and Honda (HMC) were down more than 1.5%, while Toyota (TM) fell 3.6%. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Copper (HG=F) futures fell 2.6% on Thursday morning amid worries that a slowdown would dampen demand for the industrial metal. Prices lost ground even after the White House indicated that energy, steel, copper, and gold would be exempt from the tariffs announced on Wednesday, in what President Trump called "Liberation Day." But oil futures tanked after the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from other countries, which fueled concerns of an economic slowdown that would hit demand. West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) dropped 6% to trade below $68 per barrel, while Brent futures (BZ=F) also declined almost 6% to under $71 a barrel. Elsewhere in the commodity complex, gold futures (GC=F) retreated 1.7% as precious metals joined the global sell-off in assets. Prices initially surged after Trump's announcement, but have since reversed gains in a retreat from the records recently hit as investors sought safe haven. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Before the bell, futures tied to the Nasdaq led the way down — almost 4%. Dow futures dropped over 1,200 points, and S&P 500 futures tanked by 3.4%. President Trump's shocking tariff announcement on Wednesday has markets reeling as investors, economists, and the public try to make sense of how these actions will weigh on the US and global economy in the months ahead. In a note to clients on Thursday, economists at Wells Fargo led by Brendan McKenna wrote, "Liberation Day will also be a strong test of our deglobalization and fragmentation view." The firm added (emphasis added): Because while Trump's new tariff program announced Wednesday may well be the start of what Wells calls an "escalate to negotiate" strategy, the scope and scale of the administration's tariff plans make clear the international trading order that previously dictated global business logic is over. And serves as the kind of distinct break that cannot be put back together by future administrations, no matter their own trade goals. "We have also observed clear signs of global economic fragmentation — our view that the global economy is fracturing into two distinct economic blocs: one led by the U.S. and one led by China — is a trend that is likely to gather momentum in the years ahead as a result of Liberation Day," the firm added. "Taking deglobalization and fragmentation a step further, in addition to a decisive shift away from China over the years, the Trump administration has also signaled a shift away from Europe this year... Point being, Liberation Day could also mark an inflection point in fragmentation." In Wells' view, this shift away not only from China but Europe creates a potential "tri-polar" economic order in which multiple distinct blocs of economic cooperation cross-tariff one another. Leading to a world potentially more fragmented in its trade goals, more fractured in its geopolitical agreements, and more expensive for businesses and consumers. RH stock (RH) is getting shellacked today on the double misfortunes of a weak outlook and new tariffs. Shares of the luxury home furnishings retailer fell nearly 40% as of midday trading. The stock is now trading at its lowest level since 2020. On Wednesday after the market close, RH reported that it sees revenue growing 10% to 13% for the fiscal year, below Wall Street's expectations. Its quarterly results also disappointed, with revenue coming in at $812.4 million and adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share. Meanwhile, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, which are likely to affect RH's supply chain. According to the company's annual report, it sources 72% of its products from Asia, 18% from North America, and 10% from Europe and other countries. The extent of the stock's decline after hours stunned RH CEO Gary Friedman, who reacted partway through the earnings call: "Oh shit, OK," he said midsentence. "I just looked at the screen. I hadn't looked at it. It got hit when I think the tariff came out and everybody can see in our 10-K where we're sourcing from. So it's not a secret and we're not trying to disguise it by putting everything in an Asia bucket." As we've been writing all day, things are pretty ugly in the stock market on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is down more than 4.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down about 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has fallen nearly 3%, or over 1,000 points. Amid a sea of red, there are still some stocks moving higher. The Consumer Staples (XLP) sector, considered a defensive sector that investors flock to when concerned about the economic growth outlook, is the lone sector in the green, up about 0.9%. Lamb Weston (LW) — most well-known for its frozen potato products — is the leading performer in the S&P 500, up more than 8%. Dollar General (DG) and Kroger (KR) were both up more than 4%. Phillip Morris (PM), a maker of cigarettes and other popular nicotine products like Zyn, was up more than 3% and also among the top performers in the benchmark index. As the chart below shows, this trade had already started playing out during the recent sell-off, with Lamb Weston, Kroger, and Phillip Morris all in positive territory over the past month while the S&P 500 sank. And as the selling over economic growth fears intensified on Thursday, so too did the buying into companies investors expect will keep chugging along even if consumers curb their spending. President Trump far exceeded Wall Street's worst fears with his "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, prompting many strategists to reconsider their previously optimistic outlooks. "Whether the Bull Market has ended and a Bear Market has begun will be contingent on all politicians' response, domestic and foreign, to 'Liberation Day,'" Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. "Our base case is that the Bull Market is being severely tested but will remain intact." Thursday's losses intensified a monthlong sell-off in stocks that had already prompted several Wall Street strategist to temper their expectations for the S&P 500. Now, with Trump's large tariffs further clouding the outlook, strategists are mapping out how much further the benchmark index could sink. Read more here. Investors are rerating their expectations for the Federal Reserve as President Trump's hefty tariffs are expected to weigh on US economic growth. Markets are now pricing in four interest rate cuts for 2025, up from the range of two or three just a week prior, per Bloomberg data. Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note Thursday morning that he expects the Fed to cut "at least four times." Dutta believes the lag in growth from tariffs will become the paramount concern rather than the potential upside to inflation. Homebuilder stocks struggled on Thursday as President Trump's tariff plans threw a major wrench into the sector, fueling fears that higher construction costs could slow the housing recovery. D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), the biggest US homebuilder, was down 3% Thursday, while Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) fell more than 4%, respectively. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) also declined 5%. Trump unveiled the details of his major tariff plan on Wednesday, offering exemptions for Canada and Mexico which provided relief to the two biggest trading partners. However, China remains in the crosshairs, still facing the full brunt of the new tariffs, with rates now well above 50% on many goods. Steel, aluminum, and other metals are exempt, and lumber was also spared from the new measures. 'While the complexity of these reciprocal tariffs makes it hard to estimate the overall impact on housing, they will undoubtedly raise some construction costs," NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes said in a statement following President Trump's tariff announcement. "However, NAHB is pleased President Trump recognized the importance of critical construction inputs for housing and chose to continue current exemptions for Canadian and Mexican products, with a specific exemption for lumber from any new tariffs at this time," Hughes added. Tech and Consumer Discretionary stocks led market losses on Thursday with "Magnificent 7" stocks plummeting following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. E-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) declined more than 9% while iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) sank more than 8%, nearing a wipeout of almost $300 billion in market cap. The Trump administration's newly announced tariffs include levies on imported goods from China to the tune of 54%, while products from Vietnam include duties of 46%. Nvidia (NVDA) sank more than 6% after the AI giant was also downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC. Medical device stocks fell on Thursday amid a broader market sell-off pinned to the Trump administration's sweeping reciprocal tariffs. GE Healthcare stock (GEHC) tumbled more than 10% while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was down more than 2% in early trading. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Economic activity in the services sector slowed more than expected in March. New data from the Institute of Supply Management out Thursday showed its services PMI decreased to 50.8 in March, down from 53.5 in February. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the sector; readings below indicate a contraction in activity. "Despite an increase in comments on tariff impacts and continuing concerns over potential tariffs and declining governmental spending, there was a close balance in near-term sentiment, between panelists with good outlooks and those seeing or expecting declines," Steve Miller, the chair of Institute for Supply Management, wrote in the release. Given President Trump's larger-than-expected tariff announcements on Wednesday have already spooked fears about economic growth slowing, Oxford Economics senior US economist Matthew Martin wrote that Thursday's release will "exacerbate concerns over the health of the economy." "An initial assessment of the impact of recent tariff announcements will lead us to lower our growth forecast markedly," Martin wrote. "Odds are the economy avoids a recession, but it will be dangerously vulnerable." Stock losses accelerated on Thursday morning as the Trump administration's tariffs against US trading partners sparked fears that a trade war will lead to an economic slowdown or recession. By 10:40 a.m. ET, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) had tanked as much as 5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked more than 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled more than 3.5% — over 1,500 points. Consumer Discretionary stocks were getting slammed during the session, with e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) down more than 9%. Gold futures (GC=F) pulled back from their record high on Thursday morning but were still outperforming the rest of the commodity complex as investors reacted to President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Futures fell more than 1% amid an overall market sell-off. Meanwhile, copper (HG=F) sank nearly 4% over fears of deteriorating demand in an escalating trade war. Other commodities also fell following Trump's announcement on Wednesday imposing tariffs on its trading partners. Oil sank more than 7% with losses accelerating after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it will hike oil supplies more than expected in May. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi writes: Read more here. Stocks tanked on Thursday morning in reaction to President Trump's broad reciprocal tariff announcement, sparking fears of a looming recision amid a full-blown trade war. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted more than 4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled nearly 3% — over 1,100 points. From retail to Big Tech, equities across the board tumbled. Megacap giants like Apple (AAPL) sank more than 7% over concerns of a disruption to supply chains in China, the source of key iPhone components. Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks also declined amid similar concerns. Meanwhile, oil futures tanked more than 7% after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. The prospect of a trade war sparking a slowdown — or worse, a recession sent commodities lower across the board. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi writes: Read more here. Oil futures tanked more than 6% on Thursday morning after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell to hover below $67 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, declined to $70. The oil cartel's decision to add 411,000 barrels a day to the market next month steepened losses in futures contracts after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on its trading partners. While energy was exempt from the levies announced on Wednesday, the move escalated the trade war, raising concerns about global demand. The tariffs sparked fears of economic slowdown, affecting oil markets. Tariffs on goods imported from China now total 54%. The Asian country is the world's largest importer of crude oil. "54% tariff on China is a significant negative surprise. The tariffs on growing emerging economies that contribute most to crude demand growth (not absolute demand) are getting hit the hardest," CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin told Yahoo Finance. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 219,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending March 29, down from 225,000 the week prior and below the 225,000 economists had expected. Meanwhile, 1.9 million continuing claims were filed, up by 56,000 from the week prior. This marked the highest level of continuing claims for unemployment benefits since November 2021. In a separate release from data from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed job cuts soared in February to 275,240 in March, up from 172,017 in February. More than 216,000 of those cuts were related to Elon Musk's Department of Government of Efficiency (Defforts. 'Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,' Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a release. Auto stocks fell in premarket trading Thursday as President Trump's 25% auto tariffs took effect. However, the losses weren't as severe as in other sectors like tech and retail. Tesla stock (TSLA) led the declines, dropping 5.8%, as smaller sales of its EVs in Germany and yesterday's deliveries number also weighed on the stock. Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday on reports that CEO Elon Musk would step back from his government role in the coming weeks. As for the Big Three automakers, General Motors stock (GM) fell 2.7%, Ford (F) declined 2%, and Stellantis (STLA) was down 1.3%. European automakers BMW ( Mercedes-Benz ( and Volkswagen ( all fell 2%, while Ferrari (RACE) and Porsche ( were down over 1%. Hyundai (HYMTF) and Honda (HMC) were down more than 1.5%, while Toyota (TM) fell 3.6%. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Copper (HG=F) futures fell 2.6% on Thursday morning amid worries that a slowdown would dampen demand for the industrial metal. Prices lost ground even after the White House indicated that energy, steel, copper, and gold would be exempt from the tariffs announced on Wednesday, in what President Trump called "Liberation Day." But oil futures tanked after the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from other countries, which fueled concerns of an economic slowdown that would hit demand. West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) dropped 6% to trade below $68 per barrel, while Brent futures (BZ=F) also declined almost 6% to under $71 a barrel. Elsewhere in the commodity complex, gold futures (GC=F) retreated 1.7% as precious metals joined the global sell-off in assets. Prices initially surged after Trump's announcement, but have since reversed gains in a retreat from the records recently hit as investors sought safe haven. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Before the bell, futures tied to the Nasdaq led the way down — almost 4%. Dow futures dropped over 1,200 points, and S&P 500 futures tanked by 3.4%.
