Latest news with #BrianRehling
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the tax bill is more 'consequential' than the Fed decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to stay in wait-and-see mode, with no major policy shift on deck. Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo head of global fixed income strategy, joins Morning Brief to explain what a neutral stance would mean for yields (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) and portfolios, and how President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" will be more impactful to investors than today's Fed decision. Tune into Yahoo Finance's live coverage of the Fed decision at 2 p.m. and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. what do you expect the tenor to be from Fed Chair Powell today? Well, I really expect uh the tenor to be rather neutral. I I don't think the Fed is going to make a big push here uh either way. They're really in wait and see mode. Um so I'm not expecting uh any surprises. So what does a neutral tenor mean for fixed income strategy as it pertains to people's portfolios? Well, you know, for the time being uh the 10-year yields are really kind of trading in a fairly tight range around that 240 level. Uh I don't see any big change to that. A couple things I would watch for though uh as the big beautiful bill makes its way through Washington, uh the amount of stimulus uh that could potentially push the longer term rates a little higher. That's maybe a little bit more consequential uh than what the Fed is doing today, which is uh again largely expected to be um you know, a neutral or more non-event. Um so those are the kind of things I'd be watching. Also kind of risk on, risk off in the markets. We still have that negative correlation between stocks and bonds uh that can push yields around. And so with that in mind, what are you seeing in terms of the appetite for duration right now among investors and after we've moved through the auctions that took place last week? Yeah, I you know, I think largely, you know, there's not a lot of investors going out there adding a lot of duration, especially at these levels. Uh the 10-year again, down below that 440 level, doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless you think the economy is going to really slow more dramatically, uh then you would of course think about adding duration. To me, there's just too many risks out there uh both with uh fiscal stimulus making its way through Washington and uh also with kind of the tariff uncertainty and how inflation might uh manifest itself later this year. I just don't think it's a good time to get um stuck long duration.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Mortgage rates climb above 7% after Moody's U.S. debt downgrade
The average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage jumped back above the 7% threshold on Monday, with the increase coming after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government's growing debt levels. It's the first time since April 11 that the average 30-year mortgage rate has jumped above 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily, which covers the home loan industry. The rate eased slightly later in the day, settling in at about 6.99%, the trade publication's data shows. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts last year, mortgage rates have remained near their 25-year peak because they tend to track the 10-year Treasury bond, which is sensitive to economic conditions. With Moody's downgrade on Friday, the markets slipped in early trading and the yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped above 5%, the highest since late 2023. Stock and bond prices trimmed their losses as the day progressed, with the S&P 500 reversing from a loss of 1.1% to a modest gain of 0.2%. Because the nation's debt issues are so well known already, investors have likely already accounted for them, according to Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy and other analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The advisory firm expects "limited additional market impact" following the initial reactions to the Moody's move. By contrast, elevated mortgage rates are likely to persist, while aspiring homebuyers also face a shortage of affordable properties. Home prices remain near record highs, while higher borrowing costs add to the cost of financing a home. Only about 1 in 5 listed homes in March were affordable for households with $75,000 in annual income, compared with about half of all listings before the pandemic, according to a recent analysis of property listings from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Home buying activity tends to pick up when mortgage rates drift below 6.7%, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at NAR, told CBS MoneyWatch last week. Raw Video: Mexican navy training ship hits Brooklyn Bridge Italy's Trulli: From Past to Present Car bomb outside Palm Springs fertility clinic was act of terrorism, officials say Sign in to access your portfolio
The Age
19-05-2025
- Business
- The Age
ASX set to rise on RBA day, Wall Street erases losses; $A stronger
After recovering from an initial jolt, US stocks, bonds and the value of the US dollar drifted through a quiet Monday following the latest reminder that the US government may be hurtling toward an unsustainable mountain of debt. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.1 per cent after Moody's Ratings became the last of the three major credit-rating agencies to say the US federal government no longer deserves a top-tier 'Aaa' rating. The Dow Jones added 137 points, or 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite inched up by less than 0.1 per cent. The Australian sharemarket is set to advance, with futures at 6.35am AEST pointing to a rise of 66 points, or 0.8 per cent, at the open. The ASX lost 0.6 per cent on Monday. The Australian dollar strengthened. It was 0.7 per cent higher at 64.52 US cents at 5am AEST. The Reserve Bank announces its interest rate decision at 2.30pm AEST, with a 0.25 percentage point cut expected. In the US, Moody's pointed to how the US government continues to borrow more and more money to pay for its expenses, with political bickering making it difficult to either rein in Washington's spending or raise its revenue in order to get its ballooning debt under more control. Loading They're serious problems, but nothing Moody's said is new, and critics have been railing against Washington's inability to control its debt for many years. Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating for the US government in 2011. Because the issues are so well known already, investors have likely already accounted for them, according to Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy and other analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. They're expecting 'limited additional market impact' following the initial reactions to the Moody's move. Stocks and US government bond prices at first fell sharply early in Monday's trading, but they trimmed their losses as the day progressed. The S&P 500 went from a loss of 1.1 per cent to a modest gain of 0.2 per cent before drifting through the afternoon.
The Age
19-05-2025
- Business
- The Age
ASX set to rise, Wall Street mixed after downgrade; $A stronger
US stocks, bonds and the value of the US dollar are drifting following the latest reminder that the US government seems to be hurtling toward an unsustainable mountain of debt. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged in afternoon trading after Moody's Ratings became the last of the three major credit-rating agencies to say the US federal government no longer deserves a top-tier 'Aaa' rating. The Dow Jones was up 84 points, or 0.2 per cent and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1 per cent lower. The Australian sharemarket is set to advance, with futures at 5am AEST pointing to a rise of 55 points, or 0.7 per cent, at the open. The ASX lost 0.6 per cent on Monday. The Australian dollar strengthened. It was 0.7 per cent higher at 64.52 US cents at 5am AEST. Moody's pointed to how the US government continues to borrow more and more money to pay for its expenses, with political bickering making it difficult to either rein in Washington's spending or raise its revenue in order to get its ballooning debt under more control. Nothing Moody's said is new, of course, and critics have been railing against Washington's inability to control its debt for many years. Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating for the US government in 2011. Because the issues are already so well known, investors have likely already accounted for them, according to Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy and other analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. They're expecting 'limited additional market impact' following the initial reactions to the Moody's move. Loading Stocks and US government bond prices at first fell sharply early in Monday's trading, but they trimmed or shook off their losses as the day progressed. A downgrade essentially warns investors globally not to lend to the US government at such low interest rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly jumped above 4.55 per cent early Monday morning, up from 4.43 per cent late on Friday. That number shows how much in interest the US government has to pay in order to borrow money for 10 years. But it later regressed to 4.48 per cent as some more calm returned to the market.
Sydney Morning Herald
19-05-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
ASX set to rise, Wall Street mixed after downgrade; $A stronger
US stocks, bonds and the value of the US dollar are drifting following the latest reminder that the US government seems to be hurtling toward an unsustainable mountain of debt. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged in afternoon trading after Moody's Ratings became the last of the three major credit-rating agencies to say the US federal government no longer deserves a top-tier 'Aaa' rating. The Dow Jones was up 84 points, or 0.2 per cent and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1 per cent lower. The Australian sharemarket is set to advance, with futures at 5am AEST pointing to a rise of 55 points, or 0.7 per cent, at the open. The ASX lost 0.6 per cent on Monday. The Australian dollar strengthened. It was 0.7 per cent higher at 64.52 US cents at 5am AEST. Moody's pointed to how the US government continues to borrow more and more money to pay for its expenses, with political bickering making it difficult to either rein in Washington's spending or raise its revenue in order to get its ballooning debt under more control. Nothing Moody's said is new, of course, and critics have been railing against Washington's inability to control its debt for many years. Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating for the US government in 2011. Because the issues are already so well known, investors have likely already accounted for them, according to Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy and other analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. They're expecting 'limited additional market impact' following the initial reactions to the Moody's move. Loading Stocks and US government bond prices at first fell sharply early in Monday's trading, but they trimmed or shook off their losses as the day progressed. A downgrade essentially warns investors globally not to lend to the US government at such low interest rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly jumped above 4.55 per cent early Monday morning, up from 4.43 per cent late on Friday. That number shows how much in interest the US government has to pay in order to borrow money for 10 years. But it later regressed to 4.48 per cent as some more calm returned to the market.
