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Malay Mail
6 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
US dollar rises, but on track for weekly drop ahead of Fed, BOJ
NEW YORK, July 26 — The US dollar advanced yesterday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve could take its time in resuming interest rate cuts, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity that eased some uncertainty in the market. The US currency showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key US-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. 'The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of US economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed,' said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. 'We see some room for optimism at the (Fed) meeting,' wrote BNP Paribas in a research note. 'Economic uncertainty associated with trade policy, while not entirely resolved, has declined markedly.' Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the US, where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being 'overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited.' The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. 'The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing',' said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that 'the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar.' BOJ meeting Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.8 per cent this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.2 per cent to 97.663 yesterday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the US this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.4 per cent at 147.59 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.9 per cent fall, the lowest since June 23. The euro was flat at US$1.1741, but set for a weekly gain of nearly 1 per cent, its best showing in a month. The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2 per cent, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-US trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year. In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound. The euro rose to 87.43 pence versus sterling yesterday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44 per cent gain the previous day. It was last up 0.4 per cent at 87.42 pence. Data yesterday showed British retail sales data for June came in slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May. Figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months. Against the dollar, the pound fell 0.6 per cent to US$1.3434. — Reuters
CNA
6 days ago
- Business
- CNA
US dollar rises, but on track for weekly drop ahead of Fed, BOJ
NEW YORK :The U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve could take its time in resuming interest rate cuts, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity that eased some uncertainty in the market. The U.S. currency showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. "The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of U.S. economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. "We see some room for optimism at the (Fed) meeting," wrote BNP Paribas in a research note. "Economic uncertainty associated with trade policy, while not entirely resolved, has declined markedly." Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the U.S., where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being "overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited." The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. "The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing'," said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar." BOJ MEETING Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.8 per cent this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.2 per cent to 97.663 on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the U.S. this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.4 per cent at 147.59 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.9 per cent fall, the lowest since June 23. The euro was flat at $1.1741, but set for a weekly gain of nearly 1 per cent, its best showing in a month. The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2 per cent, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-U.S. trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year. [GVD/EUR] In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound. [GB/] The euro rose to 87.43 pence versus sterling on Friday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44 per cent gain the previous day.. It was last up 0.4 per cent at 87.42 pence. Data on Friday showed British retail sales data for June came in slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May. Figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months. Against the dollar, the pound fell 0.6 per cent to $1.3434. Currency bid prices at 25 July 07:31 p.m. GMT Descript RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD High Low ion Close Chang Pct Bid Bid Previous e Session Dollar 97.633 97.451 0.19 per cent -10.01 97.906 97. index per cent 426 Euro/Dol 1.1746 1.1748 -0.01 13.46 per cent $1.176 $1. lar per cent 1 170 4 Dollar/Y 147.56 146.915 0.45 per cent -6.22 per cent 147.89 146 en 5 .84 Euro/Yen 173.33 172.67 0.38 per cent 6.19 per cent 173.61 172 .52 Dollar/S 0.7947 0.7954 -0.08 -12.42 0.7979 0.7 wiss per cent per cent 948 Sterling 1.3436 1.3512 -0.56 7.43 per cent $1.351 $1. /Dollar per cent 341 7 Dollar/C 1.3707 1.3637 0.52 per cent -4.67 per cent 1.3725 1.3 anadian 639 Aussie/D 0.6564 0.6591 -0.39 6.1 per cent $0.659 $0. ollar per cent 9 655 2 Euro/Swi 0.9333 0.9341 -0.09 -0.64 per cent 0.9354 0.9 ss per cent 329 Euro/Ste 0.874 0.8693 0.54 per cent 5.64 per cent 0.8743 0.8 rling 691 NZ 0.6014 0.6029 -0.22 7.51 per cent $0.603 0.6 Dollar/D per cent 7 ollar Dollar/N 10.1581 10.1237 0.34 per cent -10.63 10.182 10. orway per cent 7 115 9 Euro/Nor 11.9327 11.889 0.37 per cent 1.39 per cent 11.946 11. way 886 Dollar/S 9.5126 9.528 -0.16 -13.66 9.5555 9.5 weden per cent per cent 118 Euro/Swe 11.1744 11.2135 -0.35 -2.55 per cent 11.215 11. den per cent 5 166
Reuters
6 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
US dollar gains, but set for weekly drop as Fed, BOJ in focus
LONDON/NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve was justified in taking a patient approach to cutting interest rates, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity. "The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of U.S. economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The U.S. currency, however, showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the U.S., where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being "overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited." The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. "The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing'," said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar." Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.75% this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the U.S. this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.5% at 147.66 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.7% fall. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1728 but set for a weekly gain of 0.8%. The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2%, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-U.S. trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year. In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound. The euro rose as much as 0.23% on sterling to 87.27 pence on Friday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44% gain the previous day. Data on Friday showed British retail sales data for June slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May, after figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months. The pound was last down 0.6% on the dollar at $1.3434 .
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Finding opportunities in alternative asset managers and a bearish call on the U.S. dollar
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. ET each day.) Investors are looking for opportunities in alternative asset managers and in cybersecurity. One also issued a bearish call on the U.S. dollar due to tariffs. Alternative asset managers Ben Snider of Goldman Sachs sees opportunity in alternative asset managers. "It's a really interesting part of the market, it's a group with high growth, improving prospects and has not participated in this market rally," Snider said about names like Apollo Global , Ares Management , Blackstone and Carlyle . He added: "Post-election about six months ago, there was a lot of enthusiasm about these stocks on the view that higher asset prices and more capital markets activity like IPOs and M & A would boost these stocks. Then of course, all attention turned to tariffs, the market sold off, and these companies fell with it. What's incredible now is that thesis is coming to pass, the S & P is at a record, we are seeing more IPOs and yet these stocks are trading 20% below their prices earlier this year." Tariff impact on the dollar Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman sees bigger declines for the U.S. dollar with trade policy as a continued headwind. "The decline in the dollar here, reflects this loss of confidence in US Trade and perhaps fiscal policy,' said Haddad. "The key issue here is the US protectionist trade policies is an ongoing drag on the dollar." According to calculations from Brown Brothers Harriman, the effective U.S. tariff rate has increased to 18% in 2025 compared to 2% in 2024, something Haddad sees as bearish for the greenback. He added: "You have the ongoing trade war that threatens to accelerate the declining role of the dollar as the primary reserve currency … policies aimed at narrowing the trade deficit means you have less U.S. dollars flowing overseas and there will be less dollars flowing back into U.S. securities." The dollar is coming off its worst first half of a year in over 50 years , and has fallen more than 6% since April 2 when the President announced 'reciprocal tariffs'. The AI and cybersecurity trade Jack Hidary, CEO of Sandbox AQ, sees a growing trend of cybersecurity powered by artificial intelligence. "AI and cyber look for that to be a key trend for the second half of the year as more attacks happen and enterprises need to defend themselves," said Hidary. "The hackers are using AI companies also have to use AI to defend themselves." Cybersecurity stocks represented by the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) , Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) and the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) have outperformed the market year to date and since the April lows.
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Haddad: The dollar's decline clearly reflects a loss in confidence in U.S. trade security
Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman discusses the impact of U.S. trade policy on the dollar, and how the fiscal impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" will be partly offset by the drag on growth from tariffs.
