Latest news with #BureauOfMeteorology
ABC News
7 hours ago
- Climate
- ABC News
Queensland braces for winter's arrival with 'cloudy, cool and wet' days
Parts of Queensland have already rugged up for winter's impending arrival as the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts a "cloudy, cool and wet" start to the weekend. Senior meteorologist Angus Hines said eastern parts of the state could expect a return of wet conditions and continued cold snap from Friday. "Cloudy, cool and wet … that really describes the end of the week into the weekend," he said. "But as the week comes to a close that rain will really target the east coast and it honestly could be quite wet anywhere from Townsville down to the New South Wales border." On Thursday, parts of Townsville recorded more than 40 millimetres of rain. The weather bureau said the most significant rainfall would be in Capricornia around Rockhampton and surrounding areas. "For Brisbane and right across the south-east, there will be showers around but perhaps not quite the persistent rain that's expected," Mr Hines said. "By Sunday we'll start to get back to perhaps what is typical for this time of the year and it becomes clear and those temperatures do rebound." While the rain and cold front starts to clear on Sunday, the BOM said the expected rainfall totals and lower temperatures on Friday and Saturday would not break any records. "Not big totals compared to what some of these areas might have seen in summer, which of course tends to bring those heavier falls and the higher risk of flooding," Mr Hines said. "Some places could see 30 to 50mm. While that might not be a lot compared to what they could see in a summer storm, it's quite a lot for this time of year. "Probably the coolest of the temperatures are going to be between Bowen and Bundaberg." On Saturday, a major fireworks competition will dazzle the Gold Coast, with pyrotechnicians from Belgium and the United States duking it out. In previous years, thousands of spectators watched the show from the Surfers Paradise foreshore but additional locations at Broadbeach, the Broadwater and HOTA Parklands have been added to protect beaches damaged by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March. Gold Coast pyrotechnician Nick Kozij's team will also be putting on a fireworks display at SeaFire. Even with overcast and damp conditions expected on Saturday, he said the event would go ahead "rain, hail or shine". "The only thing that would stop [it] would be another Cyclone Alfred coming through," he said. "A few days ago we had terrible conditions out on the ocean but now it's looking much more favourable. "If it rains, bring an umbrella and enjoy the show."
The Guardian
19 hours ago
- Climate
- The Guardian
Hotter and wetter winter on the cards for Australia as SA and Victoria face unseasonal fire risk
Australia's winter will be warmer and wetter this year, with higher than average day and nighttime temperatures, and above-average rainfall likely in central and interior parts of the country. The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast said parts of the tropical north, south-east and south-west could expect typical winter rainfall, including coastal areas of New South Wales affected by May floods, and parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania where there have been prolonged dry conditions. Typical rainfall means a roughly equal chance of above, below or near-average rainfall. Areas of SA and Victoria where there has been record low rainfall also face unseasonal increased risk of fires this winter, according to Australia's fire and emergency services. The forecast follows a much wetter than average autumn for northern and eastern Australia, and a much drier one in the south. The BoM will release more detailed data in coming days but said Victoria had recorded its warmest autumn on record, NSW its second-warmest, and SA and Western Australia their third-warmest. A preliminary autumn summary said the season had been warmer than average generally, with daytime temperatures in the south and west 'very much above average'. The bureau said the above average temperatures would continue through winter, with warmer than usual minimum and maximums likely or very likely in every state and territory. 'We've pretty much got a very high chance of above average day and nighttime temperatures across the country,' senior climatologist Simon Grainger said. 'It's occurring against the background of a warmer climate globally but also we're seeing, across southern Australia in particular, persistent high pressure systems.' Grainger said those systems caused a buildup of warmer conditions and meant a decreased chance of cold fronts pushing into Australia, to bring colder air from further south. The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC) said the unseasonable bushfire risk potential for southern areas was driven in part by significant and persistent dry conditions. The council said there was an abundance of dry material in both grass and forest vegetation in Victoria, and southern scrub and forest areas of SA. But the council said drought conditions had reduced fire risk in pasture and crop landscapes. 'We don't normally think of winter and bushfire together in southern Australia. The prolonged drought conditions mean that communities across parts of Victoria and South Australia may see more activity than normal for this time of the year,' AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said. 'Fire authorities will monitor the landscape conditions and climate influences closely this season to manage bushfire risk and identify opportunities for mitigation activities such as planned burning.' AFAC said while long-term lack of rainfall had persisted in the south, tropical cyclone activity had continued beyond the typical end of the northern wet season, into May. The council said the higher than average pressure over the south that had contributed to the prolonged dry conditions there was consistent with longterm trends attributable to climate change. They said warmer than average sea surface temperatures were also persisting around much of the Australian coastline, leading to increased moisture and energy that could enhance the severity of storms and weather systems.
ABC News
a day ago
- Business
- ABC News
BOM forecast predicts major climate driver could boost winter rainfall
There are signs a major climate driver could shift into its 'wet phase' over the coming months, boosting the chance of rain across large parts of Australia toward the end of winter. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its official outlook for the season ahead. It shows strong signs that winter will be warmer than normal, continuing on from what has been a record warm start to the year for large parts of southern Australia. But, for many, it's the rain that will matter the most, with southern parts of the country in the grip of severe drought, while flooding devastated parts of the east. Unfortunately, the long-range forecast offers few clues on what's to come for the next two months. Across June and July, the model slightly favours wetter than normal weather through flood-affected parts of the east coast, as well as the interior and northern parts of Australia. Some small pockets of the country are leaning toward drier than average conditions for the first two months, including the already parched areas of Victoria's south, WA's south-west, and Tasmania. But for most of Australia's populated areas, there's no clear sign that rainfall will veer from the average. "What we're really saying is the dice aren't particularly loaded over the next three months for either wetter or drier conditions," BOM's national manager of climate services Karl Braganza said. There is, however, a notable shift later in the season with large portions of the country favoured to have wetter than normal weather from July to September. This signal is strongest through northern and central parts of the country, but also extends through the majority of Queensland, into New South Wales away from the coast, and across much of South Australia. Dr Braganza said this was consistent with forecasts that a major climate driver — known as the Indian Ocean Dipole — would swing into its wet phase over the coming months. The Indian Ocean Dipole – or IOD – is often referred to as the 'cousin' to the better-known El Niño and La Niña. During a negative phase, warmer than normal waters concentrate near Australia's north-west, helping create a moisture-rich atmosphere that the western winds can tap into as they move across the country from the north-west to the south-east. "So, for the last couple of years now, we've had just really warm waters around the coast of Australia," Dr Braganza said. "And we've seen that with some of the rain-bearing systems that we've had come through, they've tended to rain a lot, including the recent system that we had in the east over New South Wales. "So those warm oceans are having an influence on the east of the continent, and they're having an influence over the north-west and inland parts of the continent as they bring moisture over the mainland." In South Australia and western Victoria, rain is desperately needed soon, according to agronomist Martin Colbert. "We need above-average rainfall immediately, just to get the crop to start," he said. "If we get sub-average rainfall before spring, things will be that poor that – while rain will be nice – it won't save us." Unfortunately for drought-stricken parts of western Victoria, the prospect of above-average rainfall remains inconclusive even into the later part of the season. It's the same for large parts of Western Australia and Tasmania, which have also been overwhelmingly dry and warm for the past year. The ongoing dry conditions have forecast an unseasonal increased fire risk through large parts of South Australia and Victoria this winter. "At this time of year, typically you don't get the really high temperatures, low humidity and wind speeds that cause a fire to rapidly spread," Dr Braganza said. "So it's quite different to summer, but it's very dry out there with dry paddocks and other things. So grass fires and other fires could get going at this time of year." One thing that is clear in the winter forecast is the temperature. The entire country is strongly favoured to have warmer-than-normal day and night-time temperatures this season. Warm winters are something that have become commonplace in recent decades. Of the 10 warmest winters on record, nine have occurred since 2010. Warmer-than-normal weather overall doesn't mean it will necessarily feel warm, however. Nor does it mean it'll be warm all the time. Last year, for example, was Australia's warmest winter on record but featured several days where the mercury plummeted to freezing levels. Dr Braganza said the bureau's long-range model represents "conditions at the largest scale", such as pressure patterns and ocean conditions. But it can't pick up on individual systems and how much rain they will bring. These individual systems can make a big difference to the outcome. Australian National University hydro-climate scientist Chiara Holgate said studies of past drought in southern Australia have shown the presence of just a 'handful' of big, organised storms can be the difference between a wet and dry season. 'We know from other studies that it's a handful of the heavier rain days, say about 10mm in a day, that can change the fortunes of a region of Australia,' Dr Holgate said. 'So if there's 10 extra days compared to normal of those higher rain days, we can expect it would be a wet year. But if we didn't get those 10 or so heavy rain days, then that region would be at risk of entering drought.'
ABC News
a day ago
- Climate
- ABC News
Winter arrives with cold rainy weather in Queensland
Queenslanders are waking up to wintry conditions as temperatures in parts of the Granite Belt in the state's south-west drop below 10 degrees Celsius. The temperature in Applethorpe went as low as 6C overnight and the mercury dipped below 10C in Goondiwindi, Oakey and Toowoomba. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said there would be scattered showers across the state that would ease at the start of next week. "A cloud band has been travelling across Central Australia and is now pushing into western Queensland," meteorologist Shane Kennedy said. "It's likely to bring scattered to widespread showers and periods of rain through parts of central [and] western Queensland. "Looking further ahead, it will expand to parts of northern and southern Queensland." The BOM said the most significant rainfall total would be in central Queensland and surrounding areas. "We may see some moderate rainfall between Charters Towers to Emerald and then on Friday between Bowen and Bundaberg, and then on Saturday rainfall should shift a bit closer to the east coast," Mr Kennedy said. "Friday will be the wettest day particularity around the Rockhampton area where we're more likely to see that rainfall pushing into 50, even up to 100 millimetres." After a slight reprieve, cooler temperatures are expected to return to the south-east in the coming days. "Lots of cool, dry air is pushing across southern Queensland at the moment and pushing up into central Queensland," Mr Kennedy said. "We'll get quite cool temperatures through much of western and central Queensland." Mr Kennedy said while the lower temperatures would not break any records, they could be up to 4–10C below average for inland Queensland. "That'll be roughly south of about Charters Towers to Birdsville and Taroom where it will be particularly cold and rainy," he said. Mr Kennedy said high tides would also peak on the state's south-east coast in the coming days. "In the south-east, high tides will be fairly close to their highest astronomical tide level for the next few days," he said. "So we may see some minor inundation of some of those low-lying areas."
New York Times
a day ago
- Climate
- New York Times
Australia's Skies Glow Orange as Powerful Winds Pull Dust From Parched Land
The skies of southern Australia turned a hazy orange this week as a dust storm reduced visibility, prompting health warnings and creating scenes reminiscent of an apocalyptic movie, rather than a late-autumn day. The storm was driven by powerful winds carrying dust from the drought-stricken ground of South Australia into the neighboring states of Victoria and New South Wales on Monday and Tuesday. Skies were smothered in major cities including Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney. The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather update early Monday as a very strong cold front moved in from the south and reached the mainland of southern Australia on Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, wind gusts had reached over 78 miles per hour in parts of South Australia. Wind alerts extended across parts of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, warning that strong winds might lead to falling trees and branches, as well as dust and reduced visibility. The dust storm is a result of very dry land from longer-term weather conditions across Australia. Since early 2023, Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania have seen some of their lowest rainfall since 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology reported in early May. Slow-moving high-pressure systems have led to unusually warm and dry conditions — a continuation of weather patterns seen through much of 2024, the report said. But not everywhere is dry: Other parts of southeastern Australia were battered by relentless rounds of rain this month, and a part of New South Wales received roughly four months' worth of rain in three days. At least four people were killed, including a man who was found in a car trapped in floodwaters. Entire towns saw homes destroyed by floodwaters, and livestock were swept away. In Sydney, water on rail tracks affected some train lines, including services to the airport. Sydney Airport was also forced to shut down two of its three runways. As the dust this week traveled east, air quality deteriorated. Air quality ratings of very poor to extremely poor were issued on Monday afternoon for northwestern parts of Victoria and southwestern areas of New South Wales. By Tuesday morning, the dust had reached eastern parts of New South Wales, prompting extremely poor air quality ratings there as well. The health agency in New South Wales warned of high levels of particulate matter during the dust storms, specifically PM10 particles, which are the most common type during bush fires and dust storms, and are small enough to enter the lungs and pose serious health risks. A spokesperson for NSW Health said in a statement on Tuesday that the risk to health was likely to be low, as conditions were expected to improve. However, forecasters warn that the continued dry conditions will most likely lead to more of these dust storms, as soil becomes drier and more exposed to the winds. According to the Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast, rainfall is expected to remain below average through July in parts of the southwest, southeast and east. Australia is no stranger to dust storms, though the Bureau of Meteorology said they are more common in spring because of the cold fronts that move over Australia's southeast and interior. In September 2009, a similar combination of drought and winds clogged Sydney and other parts of the east coast with a haze so thick that flights were diverted.
