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Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Economic summit attendees explore options for the future
Beckley – Successful economic development doesn't often glide along a smooth path. And it is far from a rapid process. Those were among the sentiments gleaned from a Wednesday presentation by Dr. John Deskins, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at West Virginia University, on the final day of the Future Forward 2025 Summit and Expo at the Beckley-Raleigh County Convention Center. The two-day event was coordinated by the Beckley-Raleigh County Chamber of Commerce, the New River Gorge Regional Development Authority and West Virginia Hive. Deskins delivered a wide-ranging presentation that touched on national, state and regional economic development trends today and projections for the future. Up front, he admitted to being apprehensive that his remarks included at least some negativity. "I will say it's not a great time to give an economic outlook speech," Deskins said. "We have a lot of uncertainty." Tariff policy talk nationally "has been changing daily," he said. "Tariffs have the potential to have a big impact on our economy, and when the policy discussion is changing daily, like literally this morning, it's hard to provide an economic outlook forecast." Nationally, slower growth than normal is expected in the coming months, he said. "We expect West Virginia to be mostly stable." Factors such as tariffs, interest rates and inflation all fit into the mix. "We're just in a wait-and-see mode right now. We still expect growth, but growth will be slower than what we had hoped for." Deskins also discussed the state's unemployment rate, and he focused on people seeking – or not seeking – jobs in West Virginia. "We don't have a problem with people looking for work and being able to find work," he said. "The problem lies in labor force participation. "I believe this is our biggest economic development challenge in West Virginia. I've been preaching this for years. This is the biggest problem that we face. The problem is that people aren't looking for work in the first place." Narrowing his focus to the New River Gorge region, Deskins said the four-county area (Nicholas, Fayette, Raleigh and Summers) all told has about 55,000 jobs, with Raleigh County representing about 35,000 of that sum. He said that, although the region is in recovery from the Covid pandemic, there are only slightly more jobs being filled now than pre-Covid. The low rate of labor force participation is the main sticking point, he reiterated. "Every county in the region has an even lower labor force participation rate than the state overall," Deskins said. "It's hard to wrap your head around this, but it is a big challenge." According to Deskins, less than 50 percent of the adults in each of the NRGRDA's counties are active in the workforce, either working or looking for work. "And that makes the economic growth forecast difficult." Summers County, for example, stands at only 38 percent. Deskins also presented details on per capita personal income, income growth, average salaries and myriad other subjects. Attracting a data center or a large manufacturing center to the region should help alter the "status quo" baseline, he stressed. "Human capital has to be one of our economic development priorities," Deskins said. "There's no way we'll ever achieve the level of economic prosperity hoped for unless we can get more people in the workforce." One suggestion broached at a recent conference in which he participated centered on methods to get older men and women to remain in the workforce longer, Deskins said. Aside from an aging population, potential workers in the region and the state are also affected by "poor health outcomes" related to diabetes, smoking, cancer and other health situations. The drug overdose problem is another of the major issues "holding us down," Deskins said. "West Virginia is literally off the charts" in drug OD mortality rates for the most recent year available, he said. Education outcomes also are a challenge. The state has "a lot of people who don't have the right education, the right training, the right job skills. ... They're just on the sidelines." "It's hard," Deskins said after his presentation. "We have some quick wins that we could gain. Data centers is probably one of our potentially quickest wins. I don't know if one is considering this region, but I know some are considering West Virginia in general." He added, "We have potential to attract manufacturing to the area, as well," charting along the "more traditional economic development direction." "But, thinking long term, we have to think about our people first and foremost," Deskins said. "We have to think about improving those poor health outcomes, the major problem with drug abuse, the poor education (outcomes) that we face. "And we have to think about making West Virginia just a place where people want to live. We have a lot to leverage. We have a lot of natural amenities, things like the national park (New River Gorge National Park and Preserve), for example, things like the Summit Bechtel (Boy Scouts) camp. All outdoor amenities that we have are things that we can leverage and invest in more to make people want to live here. "The evidence shows that, if people want to live here, if they move here, jobs will follow. Invest in people, invest in quality of life and also target those short-term, more traditional development opportunities that we have before us." He concluded, "It's also going to be county-specific. Some counties are going to do better than others. Nobody wants to admit that, but it's true. "But, especially here in Raleigh, we have a good density, we have an industrial base ... that allows us to build, and we have opportunity. We have fewer jobs than there were a decade ago. It's not going to happen overnight, but we can make improvements and I think there's reasons to be optimistic for the long run." • • • In recent months, a study was undertaken by Bowen National Research which collated input from 67 southern West Virginia stakeholders to formulate a housing needs summary in the four-county region of Fayette, Nicholas, Raleigh and Summers served by the NRGRDA. The Bowen National Research study "provides data to support Build WV Tax incentive access and address community housing needs in the New River Gorge region," according to the NRGRDA website. The firm's president, Patrick Bowen, was on hand Wednesday to reveal the findings of the study. The study covered a wide range of subjects, including evaluating past, current and projected demographic characteristics; determining current characteristics of major housing components within the market; examining various factors that affect housing market conditions and development; providing housing gap estimates by renter or owner and income segment; and collecting input from community members in an online survey. The study found, among other areas, that a limited availability in multi-family rental housing units exists, there is a relatively limited amount of for-sale housing, and the region has an overall housing gap of 7,569 units for rental and for-sale product at a variety of affordability levels. After his presentation, Bowen said local community involvement will be critical. "Part of (the effort) will be organizing because people can start having a conversation," Bowen explained. "We can put out data, we can provide recommendations, but ultimately the community has to decide what path it wants to go on. "We have studied some general paths, but because you have different counties with multiple municipalities, each one's going to have different priorities and different resources they can put towards housing; they're all going to decide what each one needs to do." He referenced a similar study the firm completed in northwest North Carolina, and he said those community members had several meetings after they received their study results, addressing topics such as zoning or policy or how to attract development. Those gatherings at times drew around 80 participants, he noted. The SWV housing needs assessment was launched on the NRGRDA website on Wednesday. It can be accessed at Wednesday's activities also included exhibitors, breakout sessions involving business service representative Donnie Pomeroy detailing Workforce West Virginia resources and support, and Donnie Morgan, representing the City of Beckley Planning and Zoning, who outlined the city's zoning regulations and urban planning strategies. Also on the later agenda were Judy Moore, of WV Hive and the NRGRDA, who spearheaded a discussion on small business and economic development; Lisa Strader, of Visit Southern West Virginia, who showcased the region's tourism initiatives; and a legislative update guided by Sen. Brian Helton, R-Fayette. • • • "Today we heard from John Deskins," Jina Belcher, executive director of the NRGRDA, said late Wednesday morning. "He's always very real about the status of the region. We heard a lot of rough statistics to hear, but we heard about a lot of opportunities we have, as well. "One thing that we are hearing is we are expected to have an increase of folks that want to move to the region. With that, we need to have quality housing, we need to make sure that we have a quality workforce. We talked a lot about opportunities for recruitment, we talked about small business support and that's where we (need to) really focus a lot of our efforts, is looking at diversifying the economy to open up the doors for entrepreneurs to have access to spaces and access to resources that are going to help them grow." Concerning the possibility of the future arrival in the region of data centers, which were discussed during the morning sessions, Belcher said, "The NRGRDA is taking the perspective that we're working with each of the counties in our region to identify the right locations for these data centers. They are a bit of a controversial topic, and we know this is a priority of the current state administration. They want to find locations for data centers, so we feel we should take a proactive approach and identify where they should go and the best locations for them so that we can market those available locations, rather than open up the floodgates and let them select on their own." "We're hearing great feedback," Michelle Rotellini, president/CEO of the BRCCC, said of the community participation in Future Forward this week. "Folks are saying that they're learning valuable information. Everyone has learned something that they didn't know." Rotellini also acknowledged "really useful information" Wednesday morning by Bowen in presenting the regional housing needs assessment crafted by his team. She said the local community would be wise to heed Bowen's advice to establish local guidance to engage in addressing some of the housing issues facing the region. "I'm looking forward to being able to put some task forces together to address some of these issues," said Rotellini. "I think it (the event overall) has been very successful," she said. "It's getting community leaders and entrepreneurs on the same page so that we now can move forward and work together" from a similar vantage point. Jordan Wooldridge, BRCCC board chair, said attendees at Future Forward this week had a "shared purpose" that is targeted toward developing a "stronger, more resilient community." The summit/expo was "more than just numbers and forecasts," he said. "It's more about people at the end of the day. It's about partnerships. It's about finding real solutions that will uplift our businesses, empower our workforce and ensure that our communities will thrive."
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Economist: West Virginia must embrace aging demographics to maintain productivity
MORGANTOWN — West Virginia's economy may have to rely on elder members of society to continue functioning, according to a panel discussion at this year's Focus Forward economic summit. 'Even though West Virginia has shrunk, we have seen a 20% increase in the number of West Virginians over age 65,' John Deskins, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at West Virginia University, said. 'We have extreme human capital shortages in many of our counties. To be successful we can't keep doing the same thing we've been doing. We can't keep following the norm, we have to be creative and adaptive with the workplace environment and our educational system.' Focus Forward returned for its seventh year to the Marriott at Waterfront Plaza on Tuesday. More than 500 people attended the event. Using the theme 'Longevity,' leaders from politics, education and industry gathered to hear how health and lifespan intersect. The event is organized yearly by the Claude Worthington Benedum Foundation and the West Virginia Public Education Collaborative. Jen Giovannitti, president and trustee of the Benedum Foundation, said longevity is linked to productivity. Giovannitti said factors such as chronic disease, obesity and an aging population are hurting the state's longevity. While there are things at the individual level that can be done to improve longevity, such as building close relationships with people and serving the community and not eating ultra-processed foods, some of the information the conference presented connects to policy in a fairly direct way, Giovannitti said. 'We know that shift work, and the way workplace policies are designed affect longevity,' Giovannitti said. 'Blue light negatively affects longevity. We know that food we have access to, whether it's ultra processed or not, affects longevity. These are all directly available for elected officials to think about and whatever policies they work on.' However, the conference stops short of calling for direct action from state and federal lawmakers on certain issues. Giovannetti said the role of the conference was to function as a learning community, and provides attendees with information to think about. The fact more elected officials and policy makers are attending is a great sign, she said. Deskins said the biggest economic development challenge in West Virginia deals with human capital. The state is near the bottom in terms of labor force participation. He said the state simply doesn't have enough people in the workforce, which, in turn, makes the state less attractive to potential businesses. 'We lag in terms of labor force participation because of several reasons,' Deskins said. 'Things like education, health, drug abuse but certainly the aging of our population is a big, big contributor to this.' As a result, the state's population, especially in rural area, is getting smaller and older. As such, Deskins said the state can't follow the standard economic development playbook. He said West Virginians need to figure out ways to get people to work longer in a healthy and prosperous ways. Andrea Garrett, business development, policy and strategic growth lead at the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, said the state needs to get creative to meet this challenge. One potential solution David Luckey, senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corp. and professor of policy analysis at Pardee RAND Graduate School, floated making changes to the tax code that impacts older workers as opposed to younger workers. 'We heard earlier about about the potential for reducing tax on Social Security,' Luckey said. 'I would suggest thinking bigger than that. Perhaps there could be changes in the tax rate for older workers as opposed to younger workers. Again, this interplay of regulations, specifically a tax on pensions is a critical aspect of bringing older workers back into the workforce.' The panel focused mostly on workers over 65 who wanted to return to work. Garrett cautioned that quality of life was important as well, bringing up there are more seniors who don't want to work than those who do. The panel pointed out finding purpose through work can be beneficial for longevity. Deskins said jobs should be tailored to the individual, to make work fulfilling which is what makes individuals more productive and happy. 'Greater understanding is needed in a couple of different areas,' he said. 'One, how do labor markets function for older workers? Secondly, what kind of companies that employ them, and what can be done to support and strengthen this shift, and specifically West Virginians, who need and want to work. Deskins eyed two-year degree programs for people in their 50s and 60s that can help older people keep their skills up to date. He said a solution to the shrinkage in human capital in the state is to encourage people to work longer, which is not going to happen unless workers like their work and find it fulfilling. Community colleges will be essential in providing those programs. The education system as a whole will have to be adaptable to serve a much older population. 'We're trying to encourage them to work longer for their own benefit and for the benefit of the broader economy,' Deskins said. 'We're not talking about people who are having to work to pay bills. We're trying to get people to stay in, even though they don't necessarily have to.'
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Housing affordability remains a top economic concern for Flathead Valley
Feb. 13—While Montana ranks high for new jobs, most of the salaries associated with available positions are not conducive to living in gateway communities like the Flathead Valley. Montana has become a top five state in job creation over the past year yet is ranked low when it comes to wage growth, according to Jeff Michael, director of the University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research. While population growth has decreased in Montana, according to the annual 2025 Economic Outlook presented on Tuesday in Kalispell by the University of Montana, it is still difficult to afford housing. "It's good news, bad news," Michael said. "It's easy to find a job in Montana where you're adding jobs, but the sectors that are adding the most jobs have below average pay." In addition to discussing housing, the outlook focused on Montana's artificial intelligence future, population and recreation growth since the Covid-19 pandemic. The National Association of Realtors ranked Montana as the least affordable state in 2024, based on current home listings compared to local incomes. Job growth in 2024 was skewed toward lower-paying service sectors. "There's no doubt that Montana has a housing cost challenge," Michael said. Home prices, compared to the median household income, are particularly high, Michael said while noting that mortgage rates also impact affordability. Mortgage rates saw fluctuations in 2024, but the average 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.85% at the end of December, according to the government-sponsored home lender Freddie Mac. Michael predicts rates will stay elevated in 2025. "The National Park counties are the ones that have seen the highest increases in home prices, especially here in the Flathead," he said. Population growth has continued to slow in the state. The U.S. Census Bureau in July 2024 put Montana's population at 1,137,223, an increase of 5,931 from the same month the year prior. Migration to the state has fallen 75% since it peaked during the pandemic. In 2021, the state population was 1,106,366 and sat at 1,122,878 in 2022, according to the Montana Department of Commerce. Looking ahead, 2025 will continue to see a slowed growth trend, according to presenters. Population growth will slow further, interest rate sensitive sectors will get little relief, and the economy will feel the effects of mining and wood mill closures. Further down the road, Michael suggests that growth may pick back up with moderate population growth, technology sector growth statewide and investing more in mining, energy and tourism. Parts of Tuesday's conversation looked at policy changes that the second Trump administration has implemented or suggested. Montana is among the lowest states for export dependence, meaning that the enforcement of tariffs won't hit the state as hard as other manufacturing focused states. Montana should also be relatively unimpacted by immigration changes, Micheal said. This year, a key issue will be federal spending and where federal money is allocated. From Medicaid to military jobs to federal agencies, Montanans rely on federal funds. Integrating artificial intelligence, or AI, into the workforce has the potential to add more productivity as well, according to Paul Gladen, the associate vice president for research and economic development at the university. Flathead County ranks well in terms of health care, according to Patrick Barkey, the director of research for the bureau, among other counties with hospital systems. It is one of 20 counties to receive a top health care employment rate ranking statewide. However, it is estimated that over half the hospitals in rural America are losing money. Putting an end to the state's Medicaid program, Barkey said, would result in less compensated care, further adding to that strain and leaving thousands of Montanans without health care. In Flathead County, health care falls behind construction, accommodation and food, professional and technological services and wholesale trade as more prominent industries. Although, Barkey said, the county has had a "nice bounce back" in health care after some turbulent years. The pandemic was hugely disruptive to most health care providers, with labor costs spiking and inflation bringing costs up. Pre-pandemic trends in job growth, wage levels and medical inflation have since resumed, helping with the "bounce back." Montana's outdoor recreation industry grew by just over 7% in 2023, according to Melissa Weddell, the director of the university's Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, with nearly 3 million visitors to Glacier National Park in 2023 alone. "Something that is going to be unique in this region is seasonal workers," Weddell said, referring to the Flathead. "Many have had contracts retracted. Our national parks and our public lands really use thousands of seasonal workers... that'll have interesting pressures on the surrounding gateway communities." Especially with the high cost of living in areas like the Flathead Valley and the greater Yellowstone area. Officials expect a strong and steady visitation record for 2025 as well with room to expand recreation opportunities during the shoulder season. Meanwhile, infrastructure in the valley continues to expand. "Steady as she grows," Lorraine Clarno, president of the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce, said. Glacier Park International Airport saw the highest amount of traffic last year with more than 1 million passengers, according to the chamber. That is an increase of 12.6% from the year prior and a 21% increase from 2022. Clarno said she doesn't expect visitation numbers to overwhelm infrastructure moving forward. Despite growth and changes in technology, the cost of living in Northwest Montana seems to be staying stagnant at a high level. While Kalispell has seen a decrease in residential and multi-family building permit requests, Clarno said that a lot of units are slated to be constructed this year. "We still have a huge affordability issue in our community, there's no ifs ands or buts," she said. Reporter Kate Heston may be reached at 758-4459 or kheston@ Lorraine Clarno, President and CEO of the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce, speaks during the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar held at the Wachholz College Center at Flathead Valley Community College on Tuesday, Feb. 11. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake) Casey Kreider
