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Calgary Herald
a day ago
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Bank of Canada hearing less talk of 'catastrophic outcomes' from businesses
Article content The Bank of Canada's decision to hold its interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday was based in part on improved business sentiment in its latest surveys and special consultations with trade-impacted companies. Article content 'Overall, firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year,' said Bank of Canada deputy governor Sharon Kozicki, during a speech in front of the C.D. Howe Institute on Thursday. 'While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.' Article content Article content Kozicki added that businesses were starting to see trade impacts on their performance and were anticipating raising their prices in response to increasing costs. Article content Article content Each quarter, the central bank releases the business outlook, consumer expectations and business leaders' pulse surveys. More recently, the governor and senior officials have met regularly with leaders from different sectors who are impacted by the trade conflict. Article content 'Traditional data tend to look backward — they measure what has already happened,' said Kozicki in her speech. 'When we expand the kinds of information we consider in our decisions, we gain a more complete view of how raising or lowering the policy rate affects consumers and businesses across the country.' Article content Article content Kozicki said while traditional forms of data such as Statistics Canada's labour market, inflation and housing reports remain 'critical' for understanding recent economic conditions, they tend be in retrospect. Article content Article content In recent months, trade uncertainty has prompted the central bank to present scenarios as opposed to a firm forecast for the Canadian economy. Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said the bank is increasingly turning to what it refers to as 'soft data' to determine what is happening in the economy. Article content Ahead of its March 12 rate announcement, in the midst of a 'truly chaotic' environment, the governing council relied heavily on the results of the quarterly survey and the consultations to make its policy decision. Ultimately, the central bank decided to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of Canada hearing less talk of 'catastrophic outcomes' from businesses
The Bank of Canada's decision to hold its interest rate at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday was based in part on improved business sentiment in its latest surveys and special consultations with trade-impacted companies. 'Overall, firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year,' said Bank of Canada deputy governor Sharon Kozicki, during a speech in front of the C.D. Howe Institute on Thursday. 'While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.' Kozicki added that businesses were starting to see trade impacts on their performance and were anticipating raising their prices in response to increasing costs. The tariff war has prompted the Bank of Canada to rely more on non-traditional forms of data to inform its monetary policy decisions, with its recent rate deliberations leaning more on the bank's quarterly survey data and consultations. Each quarter, the central bank releases the business outlook, consumer expectations and business leaders' pulse surveys. More recently, the governor and senior officials have met regularly with leaders from different sectors who are impacted by the trade conflict. 'Traditional data tend to look backward — they measure what has already happened,' said Kozicki in her speech. 'When we expand the kinds of information we consider in our decisions, we gain a more complete view of how raising or lowering the policy rate affects consumers and businesses across the country.' Kozicki said while traditional forms of data such as Statistics Canada's labour market, inflation and housing reports remain 'critical' for understanding recent economic conditions, they tend be in retrospect. In recent months, trade uncertainty has prompted the central bank to present scenarios as opposed to a firm forecast for the Canadian economy. Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said the bank is increasingly turning to what it refers to as 'soft data' to determine what is happening in the economy. Ahead of its March 12 rate announcement, in the midst of a 'truly chaotic' environment, the governing council relied heavily on the results of the quarterly survey and the consultations to make its policy decision. Ultimately, the central bank decided to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent. The bank is also using other forms of real-time data, including the number of trucks crossing the border and the volume of ships entering and leaving ports in the United States and Canada. Kozicki said the central bank's shift to non-traditional data originated during the pandemic, when it needed more current data on the state of the economy. 'At the start of the pandemic, the backward-looking figures didn't reflect the rapidly deteriorating situation,' said Kozicki. 'So the bank turned to more frequently published data — such as restaurant reservations, flight bookings and credit card transactions — to assess consumers' real-time spending patterns.' The deputy governor also said the central bank relied on job-posting data from Indeed during the pandemic, along with the labour force survey from Statistics Canada, to get a clearer picture of how the job market was going to evolve. Last year, the bank made 16 community visits, with a combined total of about 100 roundtables, bilateral meetings and consultations. Kozicki said these trips have helped foreshadow patterns in the economy that would appear later in the hard data. Canada's trade deficit swells to record high as exports to U.S. tank Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 2.75% again as 'uncertainty remains high' 'For instance, when I was in Moncton earlier this year, firms told me that shipments to the United States were happening sooner than originally planned,' she said. 'This pointed to exporters and importers pulling forward shipments and building up inventories ahead of tariffs — which showed up later in official data.' • Email: jgowling@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Toronto Star
2 days ago
- Business
- Toronto Star
Bank of Canada hearing less ‘catastrophic' tariff talk from businesses
OTTAWA - Trade-sensitive businesses are telling the Bank of Canada that they're broadly less worried about their 'worst-case tariff scenarios' coming true compared to earlier in the year, a senior central bank official said Thursday. Deputy governor Sharon Kozicki was speaking to the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto a day after the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday said ongoing high levels of uncertainty tied to the trade dispute with the United States are a big factor keeping the central bank on hold while it waits for more information on the looming economic and inflation impact. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Kozicki spoke about how the Bank of Canada is leaning more on non-traditional sources of data to make those decisions, including surveys of businesses and consumers. Heading into Wednesday's rate decisions, she said the central bank's consultations with businesses in sectors particularly affected by trade were informative. While those businesses still broadly expect economic activity to weaken in the months ahead, Kozicki said that, 'overall, firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year. 'While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.' The Bank of Canada started to lean on non-traditional data sources such as restaurant reservations and credit card transactions for more timely insights during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kozicki said, when backwards-looking retail data failed to capture the disruption. In today's situation, tracking more granular data such as the volume of trucks crossing the Canada-U.S. border can give monetary policymakers a nuanced look at how the tariffs are impacting imports and exports between the nations, she said. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'Today, in the face of a global trade conflict, we've continued to use – and even expand our reliance on – non-traditional data,' Kozicki said. Heading into Bank of Canada's March interest rate decision, which landed in the early days of tariffs before broad exemptions offered both clarity and confusion, she said the central bank 'relied heavily' on survey data to inform its decision to cut the policy rate by a quarter point. Kozicki said that while traditional macroeconomic data can paint a 'high-level picture,' that could mean the central bank misses 'how economic conditions are affecting different households and businesses.' 'While those data give a good view of the forest, they're not necessarily providing as clear a sightline to the trees. We want to be able to see both,' Kozicki said. More recently, the Bank of Canada has foregone publishing a single, central forecast for the economy in its monetary policy report, instead providing two illustrative 'scenarios' for how the tariff situation might unfold. Macklem said Wednesday that he still expects the Bank of Canada will be less forward-looking than normal as it charts a path for monetary policy. The central bank's next interest rate decision and monetary policy report are due on July 30. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 5 2025. Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.
Global News
2 days ago
- Business
- Global News
‘Worst-case' scenario may be avoided as business confidence rises: BoC
Trade-sensitive businesses are telling the Bank of Canada that they're broadly less worried about their 'worst-case tariff scenarios' coming true compared to earlier in the year, a senior central bank official said Thursday. Deputy governor Sharon Kozicki was speaking to the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto a day after the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday said ongoing high levels of uncertainty tied to the trade dispute with the United States are a big factor keeping the central bank on hold while it waits for more information on the looming economic and inflation impact. Kozicki spoke about how the Bank of Canada is leaning more on non-traditional sources of data to make those decisions, including surveys of businesses and consumers. Heading into Wednesday's rate decisions, she said the central bank's consultations with businesses in sectors particularly affected by trade were informative. Story continues below advertisement While those businesses still broadly expect economic activity to weaken in the months ahead, Kozicki said that, 'overall, firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.' 1:55 Tariff fears boost Canada's Q1 exports but hurt consumer spending The Bank of Canada started to lean on non-traditional data sources such as restaurant reservations and credit card transactions for more timely insights during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kozicki said, when backwards-looking retail data failed to capture the disruption. In today's situation, tracking more granular data such as the volume of trucks crossing the Canada-U.S. border can give monetary policymakers a nuanced look at how the tariffs are impacting imports and exports between the nations, she said. 'Today, in the face of a global trade conflict, we've continued to use – and even expand our reliance on – non-traditional data,' Kozicki said. Story continues below advertisement Heading into Bank of Canada's March interest rate decision, which landed in the early days of tariffs before broad exemptions offered both clarity and confusion, she said the central bank 'relied heavily' on survey data to inform its decision to cut the policy rate by a quarter point. Kozicki said that while traditional macroeconomic data can paint a 'high-level picture,' that could mean the central bank misses 'how economic conditions are affecting different households and businesses.' 'While those data give a good view of the forest, they're not necessarily providing as clear a sightline to the trees. We want to be able to see both,' Kozicki said. More recently, the Bank of Canada has foregone publishing a single, central forecast for the economy in its monetary policy report, instead providing two illustrative 'scenarios' for how the tariff situation might unfold. Macklem said Wednesday that he still expects the Bank of Canada will be less forward-looking than normal as it charts a path for monetary policy. The central bank's next interest rate decision and monetary policy report are due on July 30.
Winnipeg Free Press
2 days ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
Bank of Canada hearing less ‘catastrophic' tariff talk from businesses
OTTAWA – Trade-sensitive businesses are telling the Bank of Canada that they're broadly less worried about their 'worst-case tariff scenarios' coming true compared to earlier in the year, a senior central bank official said Thursday. Deputy governor Sharon Kozicki was speaking to the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto a day after the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday said ongoing high levels of uncertainty tied to the trade dispute with the United States are a big factor keeping the central bank on hold while it waits for more information on the looming economic and inflation impact. Kozicki spoke about how the Bank of Canada is leaning more on non-traditional sources of data to make those decisions, including surveys of businesses and consumers. Heading into Wednesday's rate decisions, she said the central bank's consultations with businesses in sectors particularly affected by trade were informative. While those businesses still broadly expect economic activity to weaken in the months ahead, Kozicki said that, 'overall, firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year. 'While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.' The Bank of Canada started to lean on non-traditional data sources such as restaurant reservations and credit card transactions for more timely insights during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kozicki said, when backwards-looking retail data failed to capture the disruption. In today's situation, tracking more granular data such as the volume of trucks crossing the Canada-U.S. border can give monetary policymakers a nuanced look at how the tariffs are impacting imports and exports between the nations, she said. 'Today, in the face of a global trade conflict, we've continued to use – and even expand our reliance on – non-traditional data,' Kozicki said. Heading into Bank of Canada's March interest rate decision, which landed in the early days of tariffs before broad exemptions offered both clarity and confusion, she said the central bank 'relied heavily' on survey data to inform its decision to cut the policy rate by a quarter point. Kozicki said that while traditional macroeconomic data can paint a 'high-level picture,' that could mean the central bank misses 'how economic conditions are affecting different households and businesses.' Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'While those data give a good view of the forest, they're not necessarily providing as clear a sightline to the trees. We want to be able to see both,' Kozicki said. More recently, the Bank of Canada has foregone publishing a single, central forecast for the economy in its monetary policy report, instead providing two illustrative 'scenarios' for how the tariff situation might unfold. Macklem said Wednesday that he still expects the Bank of Canada will be less forward-looking than normal as it charts a path for monetary policy. The central bank's next interest rate decision and monetary policy report are due on July 30. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 5 2025.
