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CBC
26-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
These Hamilton ridings are ones to watch, political experts say in final days of campaign
Social Sharing With many Hamilton-area federal ridings held by Liberal members of Parliament going into this election, the bump the party has seen in the polls this month means the local electoral map may not change drastically, say local political scientists. On election day this Monday, political experts say they'll be watching for the results especially in two local ridings held by other parties to see just how much pull the Liberal message has in this election. Stefan Dolgert, an associate professor of political science at Brock University, sees the rise of Liberal support and the shrinking of support for the New Democratic Party as two sides of the same coin. Dolgert, who lives in Hamilton, notes Conservative support nationally is still relatively strong, at about 38 per cent, which in normal times would be enough to form government. Those numbers are according to both the CBC poll tracker and the 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data. But these days, existential fears related to tense relations with the United States have reduced NDP voters' feelings of "basic security" and have likely driven many to the more middle-of-the-road Liberals, he says. Watching Hamilton Centre That makes Liberal victories more likely in the Hamilton ridings the party already holds — Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek — but may also have candidates such as Hamilton-Centre NDP MP Matthew Green looking over his shoulder, Dolgert says. "I've been surprised to see how much support there is for the Liberal candidate [in Hamilton Centre]," said Dolgert, noting Green has been in the MP job since 2019 and was a city councillor before that. "I would still be surprised if [the NDP loses] Hamilton Centre but it does seem possible" in a way that was unfathomable even a few months ago, he told CBC Hamilton on Thursday. WATCH | What the CBC Poll Tracker tells us in final days of campaign: Where do parties stand in the final days of the campaign? 17 hours ago Duration 6:51 As the federal election campaign enters its final days, the CBC Poll Tracker has the Liberals in a narrow lead over the Conservatives, with the NDP trailing at 8.6%. Poll watcher Éric Grenier of stops by Power & Politics to look at each party's position in the eleventh hour of the election. Chris Erl, a politics researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University, says the Liberal support in Hamilton Centre is notable given that the party is running a candidate who lives in Mississauga and works in Toronto, engineer Aslam Rana. "For the first time in decades, they are competitive in Hamilton Centre," says Erl, who also lives in Hamilton. "A lot of people who [would consider voting Liberal] are struggling with voting for someone who doesn't have a strong connection to the community." He says many expected the Liberals to run a star local candidate, noting he heard residents musing about whether it might be former mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis or recent provincial Liberal candidate Deirdre Pike. "This time, the Liberals might be kicking themselves over their choice," he said. Will Conservatives hang onto Flamborough-Glanbrook? The other local riding without a Liberal incumbent is Flamborough-Glanbrook, currently held by Conservative Dan Muys, who is running again. The riding has gone Conservative since it was created in 2015, but if there were an election where the Liberals could be a factor there, it's this one, says Erl. Given the rural population, "it should be a deep-blue Tory seat," but the riding also encompasses several increasingly populous towns, such as Waterdown and Binbrook. "Muys is working hard" to keep his seat, says Erl, but "a lot of folks in the more suburban areas of the riding may look to the Liberals." Greens inactive in several local ridings When looking back at the provincial election, Erl says it's also notable how little traction the Green Party appears to have this time around. While that may also be a function of the anxiety driving more people to the Liberals, it comes after a period of dysfunction in the federal party, where infighting over opinions related to Israel and the Palestinian territories led to a public rift. After the start of this campaign, the Greens withdrew numerous candidates it had previously announced. It is not running a candidate in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, a riding in which Green candidate Pascale Marchand increased the provincial party's vote share in the recent Ontario election, notes Erl. "For the party federally to not be able to put a candidate there, it shows a disconnect," he says. The Greens are also not running a candidate on the Hamilton Mountain. Meanwhile, when explaining her absence at the Cable 14 candidates debate earlier this week for the Flamborough-Glanbrook riding, Green candidate Anita Payne said she was not actively campaigning. "Some of our candidates run small campaigns, giving voters the opportunity to vote for the Greens, but have no media communication strategy. Anita Payne is one of them," wrote party representative Fabrice Lachance in an email. New normal or a 'bump in the road' Dolgert says he's heard pundits question whether the events of the current election mean Canada is headed toward becoming a two-party system, more like that of the United States. But he cautions that it takes more than one election to show a trend.
CBC
25-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Where do parties stand in the final days of the campaign?
As the federal election campaign enters its final days, the CBC Poll Tracker has the Liberals in a narrow lead over the Conservatives, with the NDP trailing at 8.6%. The Political Pulse panel weighs in on how the party leaders are spending the eleventh hour of the election.
Winnipeg Free Press
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Poilievre's unwillingness to change has Carney's Liberals on brink of majority
Opinion Canada's two main poll trackers are projecting remarkably similar outcomes for Monday's federal election: a clear Liberal win, albeit one closer to a razor-thin majority than a landslide. Both Canada338 and the CBC Poll Tracker predict the Liberals could win around 186 to 190 seats, comfortably clearing the 172-seat threshold needed to form a majority in the House of Commons. The Liberals have a four-point national lead over the Conservatives, slightly less than the six to seven-point lead the party held earlier in the campaign, according to both poll trackers. More importantly for the Liberals, they continue to lead in the key battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even British Columbia. JUSTIN TANG / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's refusal to soften his image or broaden his appeal has cost him dearly, writes Tom Brodbeck. In Ontario, the province that often decides elections, the Liberals are out front by a margin of six to 10 points depending on the poll. That's no small thing. And it's not just suburban Toronto or the GTA where they're making gains. In a stunning twist, some polling suggests Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre himself could be at risk of losing his seat in Carleton — a once-safe riding on the outskirts of Ottawa where the Liberal ground game has reportedly gone into overdrive. The Liberals could win as many as 80 to 85 of Ontario's 122 seats and just over half of Quebec's 78 seats, according to the poll trackers. Why? Because while Liberal Leader Mark Carney has spent the last month reassuring Canadians with a message of competence, economic prudence, and middle-of-the-road stability, Poilievre has remained firmly stuck in campaign mode — one that's more suited to a Trump rally than to a Canadian federal election. The Poilievre campaign bet big on anger and frustration. And while that may have worked for a core slice of his base, it didn't resonate widely. Especially not in Ontario, where voters are traditionally wary of firebrands and ideologues. His inability — or unwillingness — to shed the attack-dog persona may have won him headlines, but it cost him credibility where it mattered most. And the Liberals have seized that opening. While the focus of the campaign over the past week or so may have shifted back slightly to affordability, crime and Canada's housing crisis — which have been the centrepieces of the Conservative campaign — it hasn't been enough to close the gap between the two leading parties. Under Carney, the Liberals have run a far more focused, issues-driven campaign than they have in years. The former Bank of Canada governor has leaned into his economic credentials, assuring voters that he's the steady hand Canada needs in uncertain times. And while he's taken jabs at Poilievre along the way, his tone has been measured — his debates grounded in facts and policy. It's paid off. In short, the math works in favour of the Liberals. And with a few days left in the campaign, the momentum is firmly on their side. The NDP, meanwhile, hasn't been able to blunt the Liberal surge. Jagmeet Singh's party is still polling below 10 per cent nationally and is poised to lose a chunk of the seats it held in the last Parliament. It may even lose official party status. The strategic voting narrative has been playing squarely in the Liberals' favour since the beginning of the campaign, especially in urban ridings where progressives are looking for the surest path to stop Poilievre. While the polls could tighten slightly by Monday, it's hard to see a scenario now where the Conservatives catch up. In fact, some of the seat projections suggest they could win fewer seats than in 2021, a disastrous result for a party that believed — not long ago — this was their election to lose. Instead, they're watching it slip away, one riding at a time. The irony is Poilievre had a real opportunity this year. With former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepping aside and Canadians grappling with affordability issues, crime, and global instability, voters were open to change. But change only sells if it comes with a credible alternative — and Poilievre's refusal to soften his image or broaden his appeal has cost him dearly. During Elections Get campaign news, insight, analysis and commentary delivered to your inbox during Canada's 2025 election. The Conservatives built a movement. The Liberals built a campaign. In politics, that's the difference between barking from the sidelines and actually getting to govern. The Liberals, for all their flaws and missteps in the past, seem to have remembered that Canadians don't just vote against something — they vote for something, too. This time, they may be voting for calm over chaos, policy over punchlines and leadership over theatrics. And that, more than anything, explains why Canadians could wake up Tuesday morning with a Liberal majority in Ottawa — and a Conservative party facing a bitter reckoning of its own. Tom BrodbeckColumnist Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom. Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press's editing team reviews Tom's columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press's tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates. Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.
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Business Standard
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Business Standard
Canada elections 2025: What each party says on immigration, PR, visa policy
With the federal election around the corner, immigration has become one of the most debated topics in Canadian politics. Both the Liberal and Conservative parties have released their 2025 platforms, laying out where they stand on permanent residency, foreign workers, international students, and border enforcement. Who will win? What polls show The Liberals had appeared headed for a heavy defeat until recently. Back in early January, the CBC Poll Tracker put the Conservatives at 44%, the Liberals at 20%, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 19%, the Quebec-based Bloc Québécois (BQ) at 9%, the Greens at 4%, and the far-right People's Party at 2%. That scenario would have delivered the Conservatives a landslide, with more than 200 seats. But the tide turned after Justin Trudeau announced on January 6 that he would resign once the Liberals picked a new leader. Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, was elected Liberal leader on March 9 and became prime minister on March 14. As of the latest update to the CBC Poll Tracker, the Liberals were polling at 43.1%, compared to the Conservatives' 38.4%. The NDP had 8.3%, the BQ 5.8% nationally (25.4% in Quebec), the Greens 2.2%, and the People's Party 1.4%. It marks a striking turnaround for the Liberals, who were 24 points behind in January and are now ahead by 4.7 points. Also Read 191 seats for the Liberals 123 for the Conservatives 23 for the BQ Five for the NDP One for the Greens With 172 seats needed for a majority, the tracker gives the Liberals an 80% chance of securing a majority and a 15% chance of winning a plurality without one. Why Canadian elections matter to Indians Canada's immigration policies have a direct impact on hundreds of thousands of Indian nationals. As of late 2023, Canada hosted around 1,040,985 international students. Of these, 278,860 were from India, making up nearly 27% of the total. The growth has been dramatic—in 2015, just 31,920 Indian students held study permits. In terms of employment, more than 26,000 Indian nationals were working in Canada under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in 2023, mostly in low-wage roles. In addition, many Indian graduates in Canada transitioned to work permits through the Post-Graduation Work Permit Programme, bolstering the country's skilled workforce. 'What's most concerning right now is the slowdown in investment and business, as well as the drop in local business valuation. Everything has slowed down due to high interest rates and lower appraisals of property and business. Many insiders are facing severe financial pressure—similar to the 2008 crisis,' said Varun Singh, managing director at XIPHIAS Immigration, speaking to Business Standard. 'Visa rejections based on political background are neither right nor ethical. Families are suffering because of the high rejection rates. Just look at the numbers—visa cancellations by the Canadian embassy have crossed 2 million,' he added. Immigration targets and population caps Immigration levels are usually defined in Canada's multi-year Immigration Levels Plan, which until recently focused only on permanent residents. In October 2024, the federal government introduced temporary resident targets for the first time, covering students and workers. Liberal leader Mark Carney has said the current system isn't working. 'Caps on immigration will remain in place until we've expanded housing,' he said in a recent interview. The Liberals' platform proposes keeping permanent resident admissions below 1% of Canada's population beyond 2027. The current target is 395,000 permanent residents in 2025—less than 1% of the projected population of 41.5 million. This suggests no major change from existing levels. On the other side, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has linked immigration numbers to homebuilding. At a press conference in January 2024, he floated the idea of tying immigration to infrastructure. 'We'll bring it back to sustainable levels like we had under the Harper government,' Poilievre said. Between 2006 and 2015, Canada admitted between 247,000 and 281,000 permanent residents each year. It remains unclear whether the Conservatives want to replicate these numbers in absolute terms or scale them to match Canada's current population. The party also says immigration should not grow faster than housing, jobs, or health care access. Temporary foreign workers and students Both parties have raised concerns over the growing number of temporary residents, especially after the pandemic. As of January 1, 2025, Canada had 3.02 million temporary residents, or about 7.27% of the population. The Liberal Party has proposed reducing this to below 5% by the end of 2027. This aligns with measures taken under former immigration minister Marc Miller, including: < Adding temporary resident targets to the immigration plan < Placing a cap on study permit applications < Restricting access to post-graduation and spousal open work permits < Reducing net new temporary arrivals by 150,000 between 2025 and 2026 Meanwhile, Poilievre has sharply criticised the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. 'We will crack down on fraud and dramatically reduce the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students,' he said during a campaign event. The Conservative platform also proposes: < Making union Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) a pre-condition for hiring foreign workers < Limiting temporary workers to rare exceptions like agriculture or small towns with labour shortages < Requiring criminal background checks for all international students Currently, students are not automatically required to submit police certificates when applying for study permits, unless requested by an officer. Economic immigration and jobs While the Liberal Party outlines its support for economic migration, the Conservative platform is silent on it. The Liberals say they want to 'revitalise' the Global Skills Strategy to attract high-skilled workers, particularly from the US. The plan also promises faster recognition of foreign credentials, especially in sectors like healthcare and trades, which are regulated at the provincial level. Poilievre has previously pitched a 'blue seal' national licensing standard that provinces could adopt for quicker integration of immigrant healthcare workers. Asylum seekers and refugee claims Both parties have taken different stances on how to manage the rise in asylum seekers, many of whom have crossed into Canada from the US. Carney blamed the increase on US migration crackdowns. 'Canada and the US must work in closer collaboration in order to manage this situation,' he said during a campaign stop. The Liberals want to improve legal aid and speed up case resolution for asylum seekers. Their platform also pledges: < Legal representation for refugee claimants < Faster processing through additional resources < Support for fair removals after due process The Conservatives, however, have taken a harder stance. 'If they're a fraudster, they will have to go,' Poilievre told supporters recently. Their platform proposes: < Processing refugee claims on a 'last-in, first-out' basis < Departure tracking to monitor visa overstays Security, border control and public safety Both parties talk tough on enforcement, but the Conservatives have made security a centrepiece of their platform. The Liberal plan includes tighter visa rules and quicker removals of inadmissible individuals, along with more resources for security screenings—policies largely in line with changes announced by Marc Miller in 2025. The Conservative Party is calling for: < Deployment of Canadian Forces and military helicopters at the border < More powers for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) < Expedited removal of visitors who commit crimes Francophone immigration Mark Carney wants 12% of newcomers outside Quebec to be francophone by 2029. This builds on current plans, which aim for 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 10% in 2027. While Poilievre has voiced support for French-language protection and francophone immigration, his party's 2025 platform does not provide a target. Other immigration-related proposals Liberal Party promises: Use digital tools to cut processing delays Work with provinces on settlement and status management Maintain Quebec's control over its immigration levels Conservative Party pledges to: < Reject the Century Initiative's population growth targets for major cities. < Oppose drastic expansion plans for Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, and Ottawa < Rebalance immigration to support smaller communities
CBC
25-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Uncertainty blankets Metro Vancouver as Liberals gain traction in historically NDP, Conservative ridings
This is part of a series of regional features focusing on issues and ridings in B.C. that could prove critical to the outcome of the federal election on April 28. Just days before the 2025 federal election, the potential outcome in several Metro Vancouver ridings is unclear, even in those that are often considered sure things for all of the three main parties. A couple of weeks ago, the polls were showing the potential that the Liberals may win every seat in the Metro Vancouver area. As of April 24, the region's leaning weren't quite as clear; data showed a toss up in several ridings. "The Liberals are doing a lot better than they had in the last few elections, the NDP doing a bit worse, Conservatives more or less on track with where they were in the past," said Éric Grenier, a poll analyst and writer with The Writ, and who is running the CBC Poll Tracker. "It raises the question of how many of those seats are going to flip." Conservative incumbents in ridings like South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley are facing tough competition from Liberal candidates, polls show. Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could actually lose his seat in Burnaby Central, which polling website has consistently shown as Liberal leaning during the campaign. Singh himself didn't necessarily seem steadfast in his ability to win the riding; when reporters asked him about his chances two weeks ago, Singh initially dodged the question. It took a reporter asking again for him to say "I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central." Even Vancouver East, where the NDP's Jenny Kwan has held the MP seat for nearly 10 years, and her predecessor Libby Davies, also of the NDP and who held it for eight years, isn't safe for the New Democrats this time around; on Thursday morning, 338 suggested the Liberals had an equal shot at winning the seat. Political scientist Stewart Prest said it's notable that the Liberals would even have a shot in that riding. "If there's a safe seat for the NDP in the country, we would think it would be Vancouver East," he said. "It is an unusual election." Toss up For the purpose of this story, CBC News looked at 23 ridings in the Metro Vancouver area, as shown below. As of Thursday, 10 of those ridings, situated throughout the region, were considered a "toss up" by — that is, the numbers weren't strong enough to determine one clear winner in those areas. "The Liberals, at one point during the campaign were really far ahead," Grenier said. "Their lead was starting to get into the five, six, seven-point range in B.C. Now it's more in a three or four-point range." How are the parties doing? Check CBC's Poll Tracker Still a decent lead, but as Prest pointed out, a lot can change in just one day during an election campaign, especially when Canada's closest neighbour is threatening the country's sovereignty, placing tariffs on Canadian goods and making decisions that constantly impact the global market. If U.S. President Donald Trump remains the biggest problem, Prest said, the Liberals will likely continue to see success in Metro Vancouver and elsewhere. "But if that starts to erode or if there are new critiques of of Mr. [Mark] Carney and whether he is really listening to Canadians … then we might see that [support for the Liberals] eroded." Ross Michael Pink, a political science instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, said that while the polls may be showing some degree of uncertainty, the Greater Vancouver Area has historically voted "Liberal left." "I think it's somewhat predictable," he said, referring to the region showing more support for the federal Liberal Party. Strategic voting In every election, Prest said, there's an element of strategic voting — some people don't necessarily vote for the party they're most aligned with, but one that will knock down a party that they really don't want in power. "This is strategic voting on steroids," Prest said of what polls are showing this year. He said this happened in 2015, when Canadians who had grown tired of then-prime minister Stephen Harper were choosing between the Liberal Party's Justin Trudeau and former NDP leader Tom Mulcair. "We're seeing that, but even more magnified, where the vote for the NDP really is collapsing at this point, some polls having them in single digits," Prest said. "This is clearly a phenomenon of strategic voting driven by Mr. Trump and effectively his ability, his superpower really, to make everything about him and the election here in Canada is a part of that." It's all about strategy for the parties, too — Grenier said that's what Carney's trip to B.C.'s South Coast this week was all about. With all these toss ups, the party is looking to solidify their chances in the region. "They're playing a little bit of offence and defence, trying to go after some of those NDP seats and also trying to shore up their seats south of the Fraser River," he said. Vancouver could determine minority, majority: Grenier Federal elections can be frustrating for western provinces whose voters may still be standing in line at the polls while ballots are being counted out east — and the election is called before they get home. But Grenier said current polls suggest B.C. could play an important role in the outcome of this election. "If we do see in the coming days that the margins continue to get a little bit tighter between the Liberals and the Conservatives, we could be in a place where the extra 10 seats that the Liberals might be able to pick up in B.C. could make the difference," he said. No matter who Metro Vancouver voters are supporting, Pink implores people to vote. "There are ridings historically in Canada and America and other countries that have been decided by less than 10 votes, so it's very important," he said.
