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- CBC
Summer McIntosh vs. Katie Ledecky: Who will win the 2 biggest showdowns at the swimming worlds?
This is an excerpt from The Buzzer, which is CBC Sports' daily email newsletter. Subscribe here. Summer McIntosh has an extremely ambitious goal for the upcoming swimming world championships in Singapore. After winning a Canadian-record three gold medals in four individual events at the Paris Olympics last summer, the 18-year-old phenom now wants to become only the second swimmer in history to win five solo titles at a single long-course world championships. The first was Michael Phelps, who did it in 2007 en route to his iconic eight-gold-medal performance at the Beijing Olympics the following year, which included five individual victories and three relay wins. "[At the] Olympics, the goal was four golds and I didn't reach that," McIntosh told CBC Sports' Devin Heroux after the Canadian trials in June. "So I was hungry for more." That's right — before she can even legally order a beer in most provinces, Summer is attempting something that only the greatest swimmer in history has ever achieved. And her chances actually look pretty good after she broke three world records at the trials in Victoria (in the 400m freestyle and the 200m and 400m individual medleys) while coming within a second of two more (in the 200m butterfly and 800m freestyle). The last swimmer to break three long-course world records at the same meet? Phelps in Beijing. Clearly, Summer is already in rarefied air. But, in order to match Phelps' record five golds at the world championships, McIntosh will have to defeat another GOAT-level American athlete in not one but two races. That would be Katie Ledecky, the 28-year-old freestyle endurance marvel who owns eight individual Olympic gold medals and 16 individual world titles. Five of those Olympic golds and 10 of those world titles have come in either the 400m or 800m freestyle. Those are the events where McIntosh and Ledecky will square off in Singapore, and it's safe to say they're the most highly anticipated showdowns of the entire swimming worlds, which open July 26 in Canadian time zones and run through Aug. 3. "Anytime I get to race Katie, it's a learning experience and it's always a good race," McIntosh told reporters on a conference call from her current training base in France. "I think we bring the best out of each other for sure." So, who's going to win these races? And what kind of times are these two incredible swimmers capable of laying down? To try and answer those questions, CBC Sports enlisted the help of Shoreview Sports Analytics to crunch the numbers and formulate predictions for how the Summer vs. Katie showdowns might play out. And to supplement that hard data with some softer, more subjective expertise, I discussed the matchups with my colleague Brittany MacLean Campbell, an Olympic relay bronze medallist who once held the Canadian records in the women's 400m and 800m freestyles and still owns the national 1,500m standard. She's now a swimming analyst for CBC Sports. Informed by those left- and right-brain analysis, here's a breakdown of the two big races. Women's 400m freestyle final - Sunday July 27 One of the cool things about this pair of showdowns is that McIntosh and Ledecky will switch roles. In one race, you're the hunter. In the other, you're the hunted. For the 400m freestyle, McIntosh is the clear favourite after reclaiming the world record at the Canadian trials with a time of 3:54.18, lopping more than a second off the mark set by Australia's Ariarne Titmus at the 2023 world championships. Titmus went on to win her second consecutive Olympic 400 free gold in Paris and may have been favoured to capture her third world title in Singapore. But the 24-year-old is taking a gap year to recharge for what she says will be her final Olympic Games in 2028. That leaves McIntosh and Ledecky — the Paris silver and bronze medallists, respectively — as the biggest stars in the race, with New Zealand's Erika Fairweather (fourth in Paris) lurking as a potential spoiler. McIntosh has never won the 400m freestyle world title. She took silver behind Ledecky in 2022, then placed a disappointing fourth in her highly anticipated matchup against Ledecky and Titmus at the 2023 worlds, where Fairweather snuck in for the bronze. At the 2024 Olympics, the 400 free was the only one of McIntosh's four solo races that she did not win. Ledecky, on the other hand, owns four world titles in the 400m freestyle along with an Olympic gold in 2016, where she set a world record that stood for nearly six years until Titmus broke it in 2022. Ledecky also defeated McIntosh in their most recent 400m matchup, at a star-studded Pro Swim Series stop in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., in early May, overtaking the decade-younger Canadian on the final lap and posting her best time since winning the 2016 Olympic gold. It was a stunning return to form for Ledecky, who had appeared to be slowing down a bit in her late 20s (pretty old by elite-swimmer standards). But then McIntosh, who may have been slowed by an illness in Fort Lauderdale, reaffirmed her status as the world-title favourite with her record-smashing swim at the Canadian trials. Her 3:54.18 performance was even more impressive considering it came pretty early in the season (she's aiming to peak for the worlds) and that no one in that race was capable of pushing her (she won by a ridiculous 13 seconds). Taking that into account, the Shoreview analytics team believes McIntosh will defeat Ledecky at the world championships by more than a second, which equates to around a body length. Their model's expected range of outcomes for Summer has her going as fast as 3:53.93 (a new world record), with 3:57.48 (good for gold in Paris) representing an average of the best and worst times in her range. The model suggests Ledecky could go as quick as 3:55.21, with an average of 3:58.81. How does the model arrive at these times? Shoreview co-founder Mike Heenan says the process starts by "simulating 8,000 performance curves based on prior trends and physiological assumptions." Using that information, he simulated the race 20 times and selected one outcome that he thinks properly accounts for the upside apparent in Ledecky's and McIntosh's outstanding swims in May and June while still being mathematically sound. "It's a mix of art and science," he says. It's also possible that McIntosh blows past the range altogether and obliterates her world record. But Heenan reminds us that statistical models typically don't project such outlier performances — even for someone on Summer's meteoric trajectory. "Trying to predict something that's never happened before is challenging," he says. MacLean Campbell, our swimming analyst, is a bit bolder than the model. She's confident that McIntosh will clock in somewhere in the 3:53s, breaking the world record, and beat Ledecky by "a second, if not two." One reason MacLean Campbell is so bullish on Summer in this particular race? Motivation. "This is her biggest test. She's got something to prove here." Women's 800m freestyle final — Saturday Aug. 2 While McIntosh is the consensus pick in the 400m, Ledecky is favoured in the 800 — her signature event. But this one feels a little more up for grabs. Ledecky is the undisputed queen of the 800, winning the last four consecutive Olympic gold medals and six straight world titles. (Let's all agree to ignore the superfluous 2024 world championships, which most of the best swimmers skipped in an Olympic year). The American has maintained the world record since 2013 and, just when it seemed she might be past her prime, she lowered her nine-year-old standard of 8:04.79 from the Rio Olympics to 8:04.12 at the same Fort Lauderdale meet back in May where she beat McIntosh in the 400. Summer, meanwhile, is venturing out of her comfort zone. She swam the 800 at the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo, when she was just 14 years old, but did not advance past the qualifying heats. Despite defeating Ledecky in Florida prior to the 2024 Olympics — Ledecky's first 800m loss in 14 years — McIntosh did not include the 800 in her program for Paris. But she included it in her push for five golds at the world championships after an electrifying performance at the Canadian trials, where she laid down a 8:05.07. That's the third-fastest time in history and less than a second off Ledecky's world record. Ledecky, though, still owns 10 of the top 11 times ever, and her endurance bona fides are unassailable. She's won a pair of Olympic golds and five world titles in the 1,500m (pool swimming's longest distance) along with her massive collection of 800m golds. But McIntosh, to her credit, sought out this showdown. "One of the many reasons I picked the 800 [for the worlds] is because in my opinion it is the biggest challenge," she said. "Katie is so strong and in her top form this season, so that matchup will be awesome." Ledecky has been so good for so long that it's hard to pick against her in the 800. But Summer is still on the rise, and she had what she called the "best meet of my career" at the Canadian trials after she began working with French coach Fred Vergnoux. His group does pool training on the Riviera, where he's helped McIntosh build up her endurance for the 800, and altitude camp at a mountain ski resort, where he had her try cross-country skiing for the first time. "Fred has been absolutely incredible," said McIntosh, who lights up whenever she talks about him. "We've only been together for a few months now, but we've sparked up a relationship so quickly and bonded amazingly. He's such an amazing coach and he has really taken me to the next level in the sport." The feeling is mutual. "What makes the difference between [Summer] and the rest is that she never has an off day," Vergnoux told MacLean Campbell recently. "She's just embracing every single session to become better, and that's pretty unique." The tricky thing about predicting the 800m is there's not as much high-quality data to work with. McIntosh has only raced it a handful of times. For that reason, the Shoreview team decided to use what co-founder Ryan McDonnell refers to as "partial pooling" — in other words, a shared model between the two swimmers. This resulted in some pretty conservative time projections, but it also points to a doozy of a race. If we go by the average of their expected ranges, the model has Ledecky winning by less than a quarter of a second (8:06.10 to 8:06.34). By fastest time, it's even closer: Ledecky by just seven hundredths (8:01.24 to 8:01.31). Looking at those projections, MacLean Campbell thinks the fastest times might be a little ambitious given that the 800m final will happen on the second-last day of a gruelling meet for both swimmers. At the same time, she suspects the average is too slow and that, going head-to-head, McIntosh and Ledecky will push each other into the "8:03 or 8:04 range" and touch the wall within about a half second of each other — still incredibly close for such a long race. But maybe we'll give the last word to Vergnoux, who had a bold prediction when Brittany interviewed him for a recent episode of her swimming talk show, The Ready Room. The question at hand was whether McIntosh is capable of breaking Ledecky's 800m world record of 8:04.12 "I think Summer can go under eight minutes," her coach said. "No question." How to watch the swimming world championships As part of CBC Sports' ongoing coverage of the World Aquatics Championships in Singapore, you can watch every swimming race — prelims and finals — live on and CBC Gem. The finals begin at 7 a.m. ET each day, starting July 27. Here's the full streaming schedule. Summer McIntosh is expected to swim in these five individual finals: July 27: 400m freestyle July 28: 200m medley July 31: 200m butterfly Aug. 2: 800m freestyle Aug 3: 400m medley She's also expected to take part in some relays, though those are not set in stone.
CBC
17-07-2025
- Sport
- CBC
Every medal won by Summer McIntosh at a world aquatics (long course) championship
Watch every medal Toronto's Summer McIntosh has won at a long course world championship. Swimming at the world aquatics championships in Singapore gets underway on July 26 on and CBC Gem.
17-07-2025
- Sport
'I have 9 lives': Canadian diver reflects on terrifying cliff fall, overcoming near-death experience
After a near-death experience slipping off a 22-foot diving cliff, Canadian diver Molly Carlson says she'll celebrate the next time she gets on the diving board again. The 26-year old was competing at the second stop of the Red Bull cliff diving World Series in Polignano a Mare, Italy, on June 28th, when the fall happened, leading her to drop out of the competition. Watching it again, it's always terrifying. You don't expect yourself to slip off a 22-metre platform after years of doing it perfectly, Carlson told CBC Sports. I'm just really proud of myself for knowing what to do in the air in such a scary situation. WATCH | Molly Carlson joins CBC Sports to discuss traumatic slip: The next morning, the diver woke up with a black bruise covering the sole of her right foot. I was like, okay, I need to be smart about this, she said. The shock is over. I am in pain. Let's just make sure that I'm good for the world championships. And so I flew home early and I got an X-ray and it was all clear. Carlson, who has been outspoken about struggles with anxiety, says that her first instinct after the fall was to feel like she let down her sponsors and country. Now, she's rewriting her own narrative and celebrating her courage on the diving board. I live with anxiety, and I know that other people do too, she said. And for me, I'm just trying to really find deep down like, 'You have to do this for you. You can't be jumping off platforms for other reasons. You can't be trying to people-please the whole time.' WATCH | Molly Carlson shares struggles with anxiety, and overcoming: Later this month, Carlson will compete in Singapore for Team Canada at the World Aquatics Championships 2025. As she prepares to return to the world stage, supportive teammates are what grounds the diver, she says. Knowing that I have my coach, I have my teammates, I have Summer McIntosh ready to come cheer for me at the World Championships, Carlson said. I think that's the coolest thing ever, and I just can't wait to prove to everyone that I can do this dive. While Carlson is gunning for the podium at World's — becoming a world champion has always been a dream — her greater goal is to inspire those watching. At the end of the day, I've learned that success is so much more than outcomes. It's absolutely about how much you can connect with the audience, how much you can inspire, she said. It is truly through inspiration, and I hope that I am helping someone out there feel less alone. Tara De Boer (new window) · CBC Sports · Writer Tara is a Toronto-based journalist who writes and produces athlete features for CBC Sports, exploring the intersection of sport, society, and culture. Prior to this, she was a writer for the CTV News national editorial team, covering trending and breaking news. Tara's bylines have appeared in Toronto Life, Canadian Business, and Maclean's where she covers stories related to culture, entertainment, and sports. She holds a Master's degree from Toronto Metropolitan University.
CBC
17-07-2025
- Sport
- CBC
'I have 9 lives': Canadian diver reflects on terrifying cliff fall, overcoming near-death experience
Social Sharing After a near-death experience slipping off a 22-foot diving cliff, Canadian diver Molly Carlson says she'll celebrate the next time she gets on the diving board again. The 26-year old was competing at the second stop of the Red Bull cliff diving World Series in Polignano a Mare, Italy, on June 28th, when the fall happened, leading her to drop out of the competition. "Watching it again, it's always terrifying. You don't expect yourself to slip off a 22-metre platform after years of doing it perfectly," Carlson told CBC Sports. "I'm just really proud of myself for knowing what to do in the air in such a scary situation." WATCH | Molly Carlson joins CBC Sports to discuss traumatic slip: Canadian cliff diver Molly Carlson spoke to CBC Sports after a 'near-death' experience during competition in which she slipped off a 22m platform. The professional diver told host Anastasia Bucsis about the scary experience, her amazement that her body 'knew' what to do, and how excited she is to compete for Canada in high diving at the world Aquatics championships beginning July 23rd. The next morning, the diver woke up with a black bruise covering the sole of her right foot. "I was like, okay, I need to be smart about this," she said. "The shock is over. I am in pain. Let's just make sure that I'm good for the world championships. And so I flew home early and I got an X-ray and it was all clear." Now, she's rewriting her own narrative and celebrating her courage on the diving board. "I live with anxiety, and I know that other people do too," she said. "And for me, I'm just trying to really find deep down like, 'You have to do this for you. You can't be jumping off platforms for other reasons. You can't be trying to people-please the whole time.'" WATCH | Molly Carlson shares struggles with anxiety, and overcoming: Cliff diver Molly Carlson talks about the importance of staying authentic 3 months ago Later this month, Carlson will compete in Singapore for Team Canada at the World Aquatics Championships 2025. As she prepares to return to the world stage, supportive teammates are what grounds the diver, she says. "Knowing that I have my coach, I have my teammates, I have Summer McIntosh ready to come cheer for me at the World Championships," Carlson said. "I think that's the coolest thing ever, and I just can't wait to prove to everyone that I can do this dive." While Carlson is gunning for the podium at World's — becoming a world champion has always been a dream — her greater goal is to inspire those watching. "At the end of the day, I've learned that success is so much more than outcomes. It's absolutely about how much you can connect with the audience, how much you can inspire," she said. "It is truly through inspiration, and I hope that I am helping someone out there feel less alone."
CBC
16-07-2025
- Sport
- CBC
Even with her iconic performances, swim coach says Summer McIntosh is only getting started
Social Sharing Canadian swimming star Summer McIntosh has already had her name etched into the history books for her record-smashing swims and a trio of Olympic gold medals from Paris 2024, but her coach Fred Vergnoux believes she still has more to give. "When we talk with Summer, we don't talk about any limits. And that's something that I really enjoy with her. We have a very high level of expectation, we expect a lot more," Vergnoux said in an interview with CBC Sports host Brittany MacLean. McIntosh broke three world records under the guidance of Vergnoux at the Canadian trials in June, in the 400-metre freestyle, the 200m individual medley, as well as her own 400m IM record. Vergnoux, who has successfully coached athletes at the past five summer Olympics, is based in France and is currently training McIntosh ahead of the World Aquatics swimming championships in Singapore, when the first finals begin on Sunday, July 27. The two have been training together since January 2025. In the eyes of Vergnoux, it's McIntosh's consistency that sets her apart from others. "I think that's probably what makes the difference between her and the rest is that she never has a day off," he said. "She's just embracing every single session to become better and that's pretty unique. He adds that her age — 18 years old— lends itself well to her work ethic. "She's young, and she's also very innocent still, even though she's such a successful swimmer, she has that innocence as a late-old teenager," he said. "That's why she's so into what she does on a daily basis." More to come Vergnoux believes the winning will only continue, and more world records in two other events will fall: the 200m butterfly, an event she won at the Paris Olympics, and the much talked about 800m. "The three world records that she did, I think she can improve that," said Vergnoux. "And we seem to forget that she was 0.2 [seconds] off the 200-metre butterfly, which is for me the most difficult one to reach." But it's the 800m event where Vergnoux made his boldest prediction. That event has been owned by legendary swimmer Katie Ledecky since she captured gold at the 2012 London Games. Summer McIntosh's next world record, according to Coach Fred Vergnoux | The Ready Room 16 hours ago Fred Vergnoux was by her side when Summer McIntosh broke 3 world records in 5 days at Canadian swim trials, and so we had to ask him, "What record will Summer set next?," here's what he had to say. The 28-year-old star has followed that up with three more gold medals, including one in Paris. Proving she's still the queen of the event, Ledecky then broke her own world record at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., touching the wall in eight minutes and 4.12 seconds back in May. Yet what has fans believing McIntosh, who will challenge Ledecky in the 800m in Singapore, can triumph is that the Toronto native beat her American rival at an event prior to the Paris Olympics. McIntosh swam in a national record time of 8:11.39, beating Ledecky's time of 8:17.12 – a nearly six second gap. Ledecky had not lost an 800m final for more than 13 years. "I think she's swam [the 800] four or five times," Vergnoux pointed out. "[McIntosh has] no experience in the 800 freestyle. I think Summer can go under eight minutes and be the first one to the break long course [world record], no question." In an interview with CBC Sports' Devin Heroux, McIntosh says Vergnoux has pushed her to go faster than she ever thought possible. "He's done absolutely amazing with me," she said. "It's been awesome to know that he fully believes me. It's absolutely amazing. And I think that's such an important relationship to have, because I 100 per cent believe in him and as well, and that's so important to have the belief in each other." Summer McIntosh on what's next after record-breaking week at Canadian swim trials 1 month ago CBC Sports' Devin Heroux sat down with Summer McIntosh after she set three world records and five national records at the Canadian swim trials in Victoria, B.C. In the fall, McIntosh will move to Texas to train under world class coach Bob Bowman, who guided Michael Phelps to unprecedented success in the pool on his way to becoming most decorated Olympian of all-time. But before then, McIntosh is expected to compete in the 200m butterfly, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle, and 200m and 400m IMs, at the swim worlds. "We should just enjoy watching Summer swimming. I think it's only the start for Summer McIntosh, to be honest. For three gold medals in Paris, I think that's the beginning of something amazing," Vergnoux said. "She's going to carry on writing the story of swimming."
