Latest news with #CBN
Zawya
5 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Nigeria: MPC faces tough balancing act of sustaining price, exchange rate stability
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) faces a tough balancing act: sustain the naira's recent stability, and control inflation while ensuring that borrowing costs do not continue to suffocate businesses and economic growth. The stage is set for what could be one of the most crucial monetary policy meetings of the year, as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 301st session on July 21–22 in Abuja. Coming at a time of relative macroeconomic stability, the meeting is expected to determine whether Nigeria maintains its current tight monetary policy stance or begins to ease interest rates in response to emerging disinflationary signals. Why this meeting matters The MPC's decisions over the past 12 months have shaped Nigeria's economic direction, with aggressive rate hikes introduced to combat runaway inflation and restore investor confidence. At the last meeting in May, the Committee opted to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.5 percent, a decision that signaled cautious optimism amid improving fundamentals. Recent data have supported this cautious approach. Inflation is showing signs of moderation, falling to 22.22 percent in June 2025. The exchange rate has stabilized, with the naira appreciating by 3.6 percent in June to close at N1,529.71/$. Foreign exchange (FX) inflows have improved, bolstered by high yields on Nigerian Open Market Operation (OMO) bills and reforms in the FX market. However, the economy is not out of the woods yet. Food inflation remains high due to insecurity and flooding, while global financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks. The Case for holding rates For many analysts, the case for keeping rates unchanged remains strong. Afrinvest Securities Limited expects the MPC to maintain its current stance, citing three key reasons: External Risks: Geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East could disrupt global trade and commodity prices. Domestic Food Supply Shocks: Insecurity and flooding have tightened food supply chains, posing risks to inflation despite the recent naira gains. Economic Data Uncertainty: The delayed release of Nigeria's rebased GDP figures for Q1 2025 adds uncertainty to policy formulation. Afrinvest projects inflation to ease further, but it warns that a premature rate cut could derail the naira's recent gains. The Committee has previously emphasized that high yields on Nigerian OMO bills are crucial for attracting foreign portfolio inflows, which in turn support FX stability. Similarly, Cordros Securities advocates a cautious approach. In a note to investors, it stated: 'While domestic inflation is expected to continue easing and GDP growth remains robust, a sudden pivot to monetary easing could undermine FX market stability. A gradual approach is preferable as the MPC balances the disinflationary process with exchange rate stability.' Arguments for a rate cut Despite the strong case for maintaining rates, calls for easing are growing louder. Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, is leading that charge. He recommends a 25 basis-point cut to 25 percent, arguing that the economy can no longer bear the burden of excessively high borrowing costs. In an emailed note to stakeholders, Rewane said: 'Interest rates above 30 percent are unsustainable for small businesses and manufacturers. The IMF's forecast that Nigeria's inflation will drop to 18 percent in 2026 provides further justification for a gradual shift toward monetary easing.' FDC had projected that headline inflation rate would fall to 22.65 percent in June, citing lower PMS prices, a stable naira, and slowing money supply growth. It eased below the forecast. However, it expected food inflation to tick up slightly to 21.56 percent due to supply chain disruptions. The wider implications of a rate cut, according to FDC, include reduced borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); increased credit availability for the productive sector, and improved consumer demand, which could stimulate growth. FDC further argues that Dangote Refinery's recent decision to cut ex-depot PMS prices could exert additional downward pressure on pump prices, easing inflation further in coming months. Cardoso's caution and CBN's strategy CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has, however, consistently signaled caution. Speaking after the 300th MPC meeting in May, he underscored the need to consolidate recent gains rather than risk a premature policy reversal. 'We will continue to enhance collaboration with the fiscal sector to drive growth. Stabilising forex rates, controlling inflation, and boosting investor confidence remain our priorities,' Cardoso said. He reiterated that the apex bank's goals include reducing inflation from double digits to single digits over the medium term, maintaining transparency in FX operations through reforms such as the Electronic Foreign Exchange System (EFEMS) and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) FX Code. Sustaining FX liquidity to support exchange rate stability Recent data supports his cautious optimism. The naira gained 6.95 percent in the parallel market to trade at N1,510/$ as of February 20, driven by improved FX liquidity, subdued demand, and consistent CBN interventions. Businesses, especially in the real sector, have applauded the MPC's decision to hold rates, viewing it as supportive of the naira's rally and a restraint on further borrowing cost increases. Macroeconomic fundamentals improving Nigeria's macroeconomic indicators are showing steady improvement, giving the MPC some room to consider future policy easing. GDP Growth: The Committee anticipates robust GDP growth in the medium term, driven by strong non-oil sector performance and increased crude oil production, which stood at 1.74 million barrels per day recently. Trade Balance: A favourable trade balance has eased pressure on FX demand. Inflation Outlook: The rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and adjustments to consumption basket weights are expected to reflect more realistic consumption patterns, with inflationary pressures projected to moderate further. Investor Confidence: Transparency in FX operations and the clearing of over $7 billion FX backlog have improved Nigeria's credibility among foreign investors and multilateral organisations. Stakeholders call for policy mix While monetary tightening has been effective in stabilising the exchange rate, some stakeholders argue that Nigeria has reached the limits of what monetary policy alone can achieve. Charles Abuede, Research Head at Cowry Asset Management Limited, said the MPC must now focus on balancing price stability with growth. 'With MPR already at 27.5 per cent and Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) at 50 percent, monetary policy has been stretched to its limits. We need complementary fiscal and development finance interventions, especially in tackling food inflation,' Abuede said. The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) agrees, predicting that the MPC could adopt a more accommodative stance later in the year. 'As inflation continues to ease, a gradual reduction in interest rates would stimulate economic activity, particularly in the productive sector,' NESG noted. Global context: Risks and opportunities Globally, the MPC must also weigh risks such as: Geopolitical Tensions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions continue to disrupt global trade flows. Tight Global Financial Conditions: Higher interest rates in advanced economies make it challenging for emerging markets like Nigeria to attract portfolio inflows if local yields fall too fast. Trade Policy Uncertainty: The possibility of a global trade war, driven by US tariff hikes, could raise global inflation and dampen growth. However, there are also opportunities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained a global GDP growth forecast of 3.3 percent for 2025 and 2026, suggesting that global demand may remain relatively stable. Outlook: What to expect from the 301st meeting Given the mixed signals, most analysts expect the MPC to hold rates at 27.5 percent in July, maintaining its cautious stance until inflation moderates further. However, discussions around a gradual easing in the second half of 2025 are likely to gain traction if inflation continues to trend downward. The MPC's decisions will likely hinge on three key factors: the trajectory of inflation in Q3 2025, sustainability of the naira's recent stability, global financial market trends and portfolio inflows. In the words of Rewane: 'Balancing risks remains delicate – tighten too much, and you stifle growth; ease too soon, and inflation spirals. The MPC must tread carefully.' While there is increasing optimism over easing inflation, the MPC faces a delicate balancing act: cut rates too soon, and it risks undoing recent gains in exchange rate stability; keep rates too high, and economic growth could be stifled. Whatever the outcome of next week's meeting, one thing is clear—policymakers must carefully navigate the twin goals of sustaining price and exchange rate stability while gradually reviving domestic productivity and investor confidence. For now, stakeholders can only wait as the CBN charts its next steps in navigating Nigeria's economic recovery. Copyright © 2022 Nigerian Tribune Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Time of India
3 days ago
- Time of India
CBI held Neemuch CBN officer, middleman for taking Rs 3L bribe
Indore: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Thursday night arrested a Central Bureau of Narcotics (CBN) officer posted in Neemuch and his alleged middleman for accepting a bribe of Rs 3 lakh from a farmer in exchange for not implicating him in a narcotics case. The CBI laid a trap and arrested the middleman, Jagdish Menariya, a resident of Rajasthan red-handed while accepting Rs 3 lakh from the complainant. The money was allegedly collected on behalf of Mahendra Singh, the CBN officer under investigation, according to an official press release. The operation followed a complaint filed by a farmer Mangilal Gurjar on July 15. In his complaint, Gurjar stated that CBN officer Mahendra Singh conducted a raid on his agricultural land on March 27, during which Singh allegedly seized 400 kg of poppy husk. Gurjar alleged that after the raid, Singh directed his family members to get in touch with Menariya. "According to the complaint, Menariya informed Gurjar that Singh demanded Rs 1 crore to avoid implicating him and his family in a narcotics case. He also allegedly threatened to send them in jailed if the payment was not made. Later, Singh reportedly revised the demand and asked for Rs 9 lakh as an initial instalment, which was to be delivered through Menariya," said the FIR uploaded on the official website. Acting on the complaint, CBI registered a case against Singh, resident of Rajasthan and Menariya along with other unknown officers and private individuals under Section 61(2) of the BNS and Sections 7 and 7A of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988 (as amended in 2018). The complainant also alleged that Singh acquired multiple properties in Sikar, Jaipur, and Neemuch through ill-gotten gains.
Hans India
13-07-2025
- Politics
- Hans India
Change should begin from voters
With reference to "Opposition or Obstruction? A nation held hostage by political rowdyism", I wish to put forth a few more points related to today's politics and the politicians who regularly hit the front page of every newspaper with their own agenda. As the writer of the article opined, whether it is Jagan Reddy, or Rahul Gandhi, or Sanjay Gaikwad, anyone else, the job of them is only to criticise their opponents, irrespective of the good it is done. Because, it is merely a political vendetta. Political leaders in all parties have decided to not extend their cooperation and support, even if some good is done by the ruling party, vice versa. The reason is very simple. They want to grab the power from others' hands, by criticising and defaming their opponents. They never bother about the concerns and issues of people, they are more worried about the power and the money they should accumulate for their future generations and expenses. Therefore, thinking about good politics and good politicians is just a waste of time. Instead, a thought should be given as how to bring about a change in voters, who are easily lured by the political parties and the party functionaries for mere temporary freebies, such as gas cylinders for women, nets for fishermen; sheep for shepherds; 6 kgs fine rice for white ration card holders. A few families in India are rich, not all Indians. So, people must understand the nature and attitude, language of politicians, instead blindly believing them. Whether, it is CBN, Jagan, Revanth Reddy, KCR, or Rahul Gandhi, all of them have their own interests. Therefore, speaking against one another is to satisfy the voters/ common people . Politicians are always right from their own perspective since their single point agenda is how to get to power, or how to retain power. So, the problem is not with the politicians; it is with the voters who will trust them blindly for mere provisional benefits. Let us expect a change in people, but not in politicians. Dr Venkat Yadav Avula, Hyderabad NDA should remember their days in Oppn Apropos 'Opposition or obstruction.., there is no doubt the political rivalry has now become personal enmity, and the days when MP's sat together for a cup of tea together after a ferocious debate against each other have been long one. One cannot really blame the present opposition because they are only doing the things that were done to them when the UPA was in power. Entire sessions of parliament were wasted due to the tactics of the NDA in opposition. There is no doubt that the level of debate has deteriorated and abusive language is freely used across all parties. All parties try to protect their own members no matter how serious is the offence. Before blaming the congress led UPA opposition in power, the writer would do well to remember the behaviour of the BJP members then. Both government and opposition are needed in a democracy. By declaring that its objective was a congress mukt Bharat, the PM Modi has sent a wrong message about wanting to finish off the opposition. Can any opposition take kindly to this statement of intent? Anthony Henriques, Mumbai Is Congress becoming a pariah in national scenario? The Congress party despite being the main opposition in Parliament is bereft of direction and goal, when it comes to the priorities of extending a constructive support to the government in power. The frustration of Congress leaders is evident that is reflective in the body language and means adapted deliberately to work against the centre. The Congress is forgetful of its role as a responsible opposition, a trend that is evident in other political groups too – big and small. It is time to identify and differentiate between a democratic opposition and the coterie of political conglomerates out to wreck and destroy democracy, masquerading as opposition in the country. It is another that people of the country cannot be fooled by the tricks and tantrums being played out by the opposition. The Congress's ambition of coming to power resorting to shortcut methods that are deliberately anti-national and anti-social are being unerringly watched and understood by the masses. S Lakshmi, Hyderabad Oppn should shun constant confrontation It is with reference to the editorial page article "Opposition or Obstruction'. In a democracy, the Opposition plays a crucial role of holding the ruling party accountable and providing an alternative vision for governance. The Opposition activities ensure transparency, promote healthy debate and contribute to more robust and responsive democratic process. The Opposition is often seen as a potential alternative government especially in parliamentary systems The protests by opposition in Farmer's protedt compelled Union government to withhold the act .But however today, India's parliamentary Opposition is not merely fragmented but also in disarray. Also some opposition leaders engage in activities that undermine democratic principles such as obstructing legislative processes spreading misinformation or inciting violence These actions weaken democratic institutions and erode public trust. The present protest by opposition against Special Intensive Revision in Bihar is crucial in deciding the fate of immigrants in Bihar. Instead of constant confrontations the Opposition should be involved in key discussions and legislative processes to ensure better governance. P Victor Selvaraj, Tirunelveli
Business Insider
12-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Nigeria reports rise in digital fraud cases as financial crimes surge by 45%
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised fresh concerns over the rising tide of financial crimes in the country, revealing a sharp 45% increase in fraud cases over the past year. The Central Bank of Nigeria reported a 45% increase in fraud cases within the past year, mainly involving digital platforms. Digital financial crimes have exploited regulatory gaps, encompassing schemes using cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets. Over $56 billion in cryptocurrency transactions were recorded in Nigeria, highlighting its leading role in Africa's digital economy. In a development that points to serious regulatory gaps in Nigeria's digital economy, 70% of the losses from these crimes were traced to digital platforms, many of which operate outside regulatory oversight. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, represented by Deputy Governor Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, made the disclosure during a public lecture organized by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in Abuja on July 10. He cited data from the CBN's 2024 Financial Stability Report, noting that the digital finance boom while expanding financial inclusion has also introduced serious vulnerabilities into the system. According to the CBN, over $56 billion worth of cryptocurrency transactions took place in Nigeria between July 2022 and June 2023, placing the country at the forefront of digital finance on the continent. However, the rapid pace of innovation is also being exploited by criminal networks, many of which run unchecked on unregulated platforms. At least 30 fraudulent investment schemes mimicking legitimate digital assets have already been flagged by relevant agencies. CBN, SEC warn of rising scams threatening market trust While digital services have made payments and investing easier for Nigerians, they have also become a new frontier for fraud. The CBN pointed out that scammers are increasingly leveraging digital currencies and tokenized assets to lure the public into Ponzi-style operations. These schemes, often disguised as legitimate investments, not only threaten personal wealth but also put the financial system's integrity at risk. Echoing the CBN's concerns, the Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Emomotiti Agama, warned that virtual asset scams are fast becoming a major obstacle to investor protection. He said that such scams do not merely result in financial loss, they chip away at public trust and create long-term damage to market stability. Officials link fraud to social values, warn of long-term harm Highlighting the broader consequences of fraud, Director General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Malam Lanre Issa-Onilu, warned that financial crimes are not just about economic figures, they leave lasting scars on the lives of everyday Nigerians. According to him, each stolen Naira could mean a child forced out of school, a business ruined, or a family's livelihood destroyed. Issa-Onilu revealed that the NOA is leading a national campaign to challenge the growing 'get-rich-quick' mindset, which he believes fuels susceptibility to scams. The campaign, which has been running for months, seeks to instill values of patience, hard work, and integrity particularly among young Nigerians.
Hans India
12-07-2025
- Hans India
Man held with over 5,000 bottles of fake cough syrup
In a crackdown on illegal drug trade, the Central Bureau of Narcotics (CBN) has arrested a man and seized over 5,300 bottles of fake cough syrup from a house in Lucknow, officials said on Friday. The syrup was found to be mixed with banned sedatives and falsely labelled to look like a genuine prod-uct from reputed pharmaceutical companies, a senior official said. 'On the basis of specific intelligence, officers raided a house on Thursday and recovered 5,353 bottles of cough syrup,' Deputy Narcotics Commissioner Praveen Bali told PTI. 'In a unique modus operandi, the syrup was found laced with NRx medicine such as Alprazolam and Clonazepam and labelled as Codeine Syrup by putting false labels of reputed companies,' Bali said. 'The accused did not possess any legal documents or license to store or sell such medicines. The entire stock was seized under the NDPS Act, 1985, and one person has been arrested,' Bali said.
