Latest news with #CEA
India.com
7 hours ago
- Business
- India.com
8th Pay Commission Big Breaking: Modi government breaks silence on Salary hike, says implementation would be taken up once…, Finance Ministry plans to…
8th Pay Commission update: Will salary of government employees increase three times? Know all details 8th Pay Commission: Addressing the concerns of lakhs of Central government employees and pensioners over the 8th pay panel, the Modi government on Monday said that the appointment of members and the chairperson would be finalised once the commission is notified by the government. It is important to note that the 8th Pay Commission is pending since the finance ministry is yet to finalise the Terms of Reference (ToR), which will form the basis for the revision in salaries and pensions for over 1 crore central government employees and pensioners. Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance Pankaj Chaudhary, in the Lok Sabha, replied to queries raised by parliamentarians T R Balu and Anand Bhadauria. Members asked the government whether it has notified the 8th Pay Commission which was announced in January 2026. They also questioned the reasons for not setting up the 8th pay panel even after lapse of six months of announcing the commission. Ministry of Finance Pankaj Chaudhary in Parliament: Chaudhary said, 'It has been decided by the government to constitute the 8th Central Pay Commission (CPC). Inputs have been sought from major stakeholders, including Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Home Affairs, Department of Personnel & Training and from states.' According to a recent report by Ambit Capital, the new pay structure could lead to a 30–34 percent hike in overall remuneration, impacting over 1 crore employees and retirees nationwide. Some of the key allowances that central government employees get are house rent allowance (HRA), transport allowance (TA) and child education allowance (CEA). Curious about how these revisions may look for employees in Grade Pay levels 2400, 4200, 4800, 7600, and 8700 under 1.92x and 2.57x fitment factors? Check out our projections for a detailed breakdown: At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 54,528 HRA: Rs 13,086.72 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 71,214.72 NPS: Rs 5,452.80 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 65,511.92 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 72,988 HRA: Rs 17,517.12 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 94,105.12 NPS: Rs 7,298.80 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 86,556.32 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 73,152 HRA: Rs 17,556.48 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 94,308.48 NPS: Rs 7,315.20 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 86,743.28 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 97,917 HRA: Rs 23,500.08 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,25,017.08 NPS: Rs 9,791.70 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 1,14,975.38 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,12,512 HRA: Rs 27,002.88 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,43,114.88 NPS: Rs 11,251.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary:Rs 1,31,213.68 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,50,602 HRA: Rs 36,144.48 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,90,346.48 NPS: Rs 15,060.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 1,74,636.28 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,53,984 HRA: Rs 36,956.16 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 1,98,140.16 NPS: Rs 15,398.40 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 1,82,091.76 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 2,06,114 HRA: Rs 49,467.36 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 2,62,781.36 NPS: Rs 20,611.40 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,41,519.96 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,85,472 HRA: Rs 44,513.28 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 2,37,185.28 NPS: Rs 18,547.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,17,988.08 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 2,48,262 HRA: Rs 59,582.88 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 3,15,044.88 NPS: Rs 24,826.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,89,568.68 (Disclaimer: These are projections. Actual revised amounts may vary.) Ambit Capital estimates that the fitment factor for the 8th Pay Commission could be in the range of 1.83 to 2.46. This implies that the minimum salary, currently at Rs 18,000, could increase to Rs 32,940 (at 1.83) or even Rs 44,280 (at 2.46).
India.com
2 days ago
- Business
- India.com
8th Pay Commission Important Update: Revised Salary Estimates for Grade Pay 2400, 4200, 4800, 7600, 8700 employees, salary to be…
8th Pay Commission Latest Update 8th Pay Commission Revised Salary Estimates: The Modi government is likely to announce the 8th Pay Commission for the Central government employees and pensioners across India soon. According to a recent report by Ambit Capital, the new pay structure could lead to a 30–34 percent hike in overall remuneration, impacting over 1 crore employees and retirees nationwide. Some of the key allowances that central government employees get are house rent allowance (HRA), transport allowance (TA) and child education allowance (CEA). While their HRA is based on their rank and place of residence, they get their TA as per the place they travel to attend their office. It can be in the range of Rs 900-Rs 7,200. As far as salary deductions are concerned, the National Pension System (NPS) and Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) are the main ones. While the NPS contribution is 10 percent of the basic pay and CGHS charges range from Rs 250 to Rs 1,000 based on the employee's rank, the 8th Pay Commission could bring changes to basic salary, HRA, TA, as well as NPS and CGHS deductions. Curious about how these revisions may look for employees in Grade Pay levels 2400, 4200, 4800, 7600, and 8700 under 1.92x and 2.57x fitment factors? Check out our projections for a detailed breakdown: At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 54,528 HRA: Rs 13,086.72 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 71,214.72 NPS: Rs 5,452.80 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 65,511.92 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 72,988 HRA: Rs 17,517.12 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 94,105.12 NPS: Rs 7,298.80 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 86,556.32 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 73,152 HRA: Rs 17,556.48 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 94,308.48 NPS: Rs 7,315.20 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 86,743.28 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 97,917 HRA: Rs 23,500.08 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,25,017.08 NPS: Rs 9,791.70 CGHS: Rs 250 Net salary: Rs 1,14,975.38 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,12,512 HRA: Rs 27,002.88 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,43,114.88 NPS: Rs 11,251.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary:Rs 1,31,213.68 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,50,602 HRA: Rs 36,144.48 TA: Rs 3,600 Gross salary: Rs 1,90,346.48 NPS: Rs 15,060.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 1,74,636.28 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,53,984 HRA: Rs 36,956.16 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 1,98,140.16 NPS: Rs 15,398.40 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 1,82,091.76 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 2,06,114 HRA: Rs 49,467.36 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 2,62,781.36 NPS: Rs 20,611.40 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,41,519.96 At 1.92 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 1,85,472 HRA: Rs 44,513.28 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 2,37,185.28 NPS: Rs 18,547.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,17,988.08 At 2.57 fitment factor Revised basic pay: Rs 2,48,262 HRA: Rs 59,582.88 TA: Rs 7,200 Gross salary: Rs 3,15,044.88 NPS: Rs 24,826.20 CGHS: Rs 650 Net salary: Rs 2,89,568.68 (Disclaimer: These are projections. Actual revised amounts may vary.) Ambit Capital estimates that the fitment factor for the 8th Pay Commission could be in the range of 1.83 to 2.46. This implies that the minimum salary, currently at Rs 18,000, could increase to Rs 32,940 (at 1.83) or even Rs 44,280 (at 2.46).
Indian Express
3 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
India needs AI. But it also needs jobs. A balance must be found
Written by Balaraman Ravindran, Omir Kumar, and Krishnan Narayanan A few weeks back, two influential voices in India's economic landscape, N Chandrasekaran, Chairman of Tata Sons, and Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, offered important and complementary perspectives on artificial intelligence (AI). Chandrasekaran, in the TCS' FY2025 annual report, described Generative AI (GenAI) as a 'civilisational shift,' with the rise of AI agents and autonomous robots ushering in a future of 'dark factories' and AI-assisted enterprise functions. He also highlighted the 'human+AI model' of delivering solutions. Meanwhile, CEA Nageswaran, speaking at the CII Annual Business Summit, issued a note of caution: AI deployment is not inevitable. He reminded the private sector that India needs to create at least 8 million jobs a year. Hence, businesses must consider where to stop automating and instead choose labour. This tension, between AI's promise of productivity and its peril for employment, is now central to India's growth trajectory. The Indian Economic Survey 2024–25 had flagged the impact of AI on labour markets as a policy imperative. As AI becomes more capable and less costly, low-value service jobs, especially in India's labour-surplus economy, become increasingly vulnerable. An IIM Ahmedabad 2024 survey found that 68 per cent of Indian white-collar workers expect their roles to be partially or fully automated within five years; 40 per cent believe AI will make their skills redundant. Clearly, India must act. But rather than resisting the AI wave, the real challenge lies in shaping it so that technology augments, rather than replaces, human potential. India needs a three-pronged institutional architecture, one that enables workers through education and skilling, insures against displacement, and stewards the broader social and economic transition. The enabling agenda is critical. In Learning by Doing, the economist James Bessen shows that technologies like the spinning mule took several decades to be fully adopted during the Industrial Revolution, not due to access issues but because it took time for workers and firms to learn how to use them effectively. What about AI? Unlike the spinning mule, AI is not a single tool. It is a fast-growing mix of powerful and diverse technologies. This increases both the challenge and the opportunity. India's skilling efforts must be agile and keep pace with this growth in AI. India should ensure that the benefits from AI do not accrue just to a narrow band of skilled workers. Instead, vocational training, on-the-job learning, and open knowledge-sharing on leveraging AI on the factory floor and across all services must be embedded into national skilling programs. At the same time, the government must insure against job losses and dislocation. Workers affected by automation need social protection, access to reskilling pathways, and incentives to transition to adjacent roles. The skilling effort cannot be limited to college education; it must also accommodate informal workers and mid-career transitions. India also needs stewarding institutions that ensure AI is deployed responsibly, transparently, and inclusively. They are tasked with identifying emerging risks, conducting foundational safety research, and setting standards. They should also research how to build effective human-AI teams, based on a deep understanding of socio-economic value, the availability of human skills, and evolving capabilities of AI. This will be essential for designing job roles and workplace structures that make the most of co-intelligence. Augmentation means AI systems assist humans, enhancing their judgement, creativity, and productivity, rather than replacing them outright. Take agriculture. Instead of replacing existing workers, AI-based agri-chatbots can empower farmers with timely advice on weather, pests, and crop management. In education, AI can help teachers identify student needs and personalise lesson plans. A study by Anthropic found that 57 per cent of tasks completed by involved human-AI collaboration, not substitution. What can enterprises do to achieve this human amplification with AI? In The Co-Intelligence Revolution, Venkat Ramaswamy and Krishnan Narayanan suggest that every organisation must: Become co-intelligent enterprises, where value is co-created between humans and AI; Reimagine their workers not as passive operators of systems but as creative experiencers (individuals who actively shape and are shaped by their interactions with intelligent technologies); Create a Co-Intelligence Knowledge Environment, where human insights, experiential feedback, and AI-driven suggestions flow dynamically to inform decisions and design. Siemens exemplifies this shift through its industrial metaverse, where engineers, designers, and shopfloor workers collaboratively engage with digital twins and AI co-pilots in a virtual simulation environment. In one compelling instance, a new factory was built entirely in the metaverse before physical construction began. Workers explored the virtual factory, offered feedback on ergonomics, workflows, and safety, and their suggestions were integrated into the final design. The actual factory space, thus, reflected their lived experiences and needs. This approach not only optimised operations but also fostered a sense of ownership, dignity, and well-being among the workers – hallmarks of a truly co-intelligent enterprise. Indian businesses should thoughtfully design co-intelligence into their environments. But markets don't always favour augmentation. Economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo argue that when automation becomes the dominant paradigm, innovation and investment naturally follow it, even when augmentation via co-intelligence may yield higher social benefits. One of the most important policy nudges for the Indian government would be to steer the AI solutions towards augmentation, through public-private partnerships, incentives for augmentation-based innovation, and 'human-in-the-loop-of-AI-systems' design mandates. This holds especially true for contexts where automation may have a high social impact. India can and must shape the trajectory of this emerging general-purpose technology and push the AI ecosystem in a more inclusive direction. Balaraman Ravindran is Head, Wadhwani School of Data Science and AI & Centre for Responsible AI, IIT Madras. Omir Kumar is Policy Analyst, Centre for Responsible AI, IIT Madras. Krishnan Narayanan is Co-founder and President of itihaasa Research and Digital
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Breakingviews - Scott Bessent debt plan has awkward historic echo
LONDON, July 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Outside the U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington, D.C. stands an imperious-looking statue honouring the institution's longest-serving secretary. Albert Gallatin was the Swiss-born founding father who engineered the financing of the 1803 purchase of Louisiana via an innovative international bond issue, opens new tab. That famous fiscal coup more than doubled the newly independent nation's territory and established its sovereign credit for the next century. Not for nothing does the monument bear the inscription: 'Genius of Finance'. Scott Bessent, the current occupant of Gallatin's office, faces a task considerably bigger than his illustrious predecessor's. Buying Louisiana cost $15 million, equivalent, opens new tab to around $16 billion today. By contrast, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, opens new tab the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) recently passed by Congress will increase the federal government's financing needs by $3.4 trillion over the next decade. Bessent's attempt to square the fiscal circle is reminiscent of an altogether more controversial pioneer of public finance: the 18th-century Scottish economist and speculator John Law, author of the world's first inflationary financial crash. The political stakes are high. In stark contrast to the CBO's pessimistic assessment, the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) expects, opens new tab the president's flagship economic bill to shrink future budget shortfalls by $5.5 trillion. The CBO sees the U.S.'s debt to GDP ballooning to nearly 130%, while the CEA has it shrinking to a relatively frugal 94%. If Bessent manages to realise the administration's vision, he will also have earned a statue on Pennsylvania Avenue. Over the past six months, the outlines of a four-part plan have emerged. The first part is Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports. Economists used to the U.S. championing global free trade were understandably shocked when the president unveiled the levies in April. Yet from a fiscal perspective they are beginning to work. According to, opens new tab Treasury data, customs duties brought in $64 billion in the second quarter of 2025 – nearly $50 billion more than the same period last year – with almost half of that coming in June alone. Over the longer term, trade diversion and re-shoring of manufacturing will doubtless crimp those proceeds. Nevertheless, the bounty lends credence to Bessent's prediction that tariff revenue will top $300 billion in 2025, and to the CEA's prediction that the levies will bring in $2.8 trillion over the next decade. Part two is even simpler: bet on economic growth. The CBO's baseline budget projections assume U.S. GDP will expand by less than 2% a year. The White House thinks that's a desultory underestimate. The CEA points to the artificial intelligence investment boom, rampant growth of private credit, a promised surge of deregulation, and the dynamic effects of the tax cuts and investment incentives embedded in the OBBBA. It predicts these factors will leave the U.S. economy significantly larger a decade from now than the CBO predicts. The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget accuses, opens new tab the White House of 'fantasy growth assumptions'. Bessent is not deterred. After all, stronger growth narrows the financing gap by $4.7 trillion. Part three is to force down interest rates and reduce the cost of servicing the public debt. Interest costs are now the U.S. government's second largest expenditure category, running at nearly $1 trillion a year. For months, Trump has assailed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for what he claims is excessive hawkishness, dubbing him 'Mr. Too Late', a 'major loser', and a 'stubborn mule', and probed replacing Powell before his term expires next May. The president believes the central bank should drop its policy rate to 1%. Undermining the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials would risk higher longer-term borrowing costs as investors demand a premium to hold U.S. debt. Bessent has a plan to head that off by reducing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which limits the size of U.S. banks' balance sheets relative to their equity capital. Relaxing this rule will enable large lenders to hold more Treasury bonds, offsetting selling by other investors. The Fed is considering the proposal. These measures inch Bessent closer to meeting the White House's fiscal expectations, but won't get him all the way. That's where the fourth and most exotic part of the plan comes in: the promotion of U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins. The GENIUS Act currently passing through Congress would open the floodgates for cryptocurrencies backed by dollar-denominated assets. A surge in stablecoins and a corresponding boost in demand for U.S. Treasury debt, Bessent believes, opens new tab, 'could lower government borrowing costs and help rein in the national debt'. If the tokens catch on with overseas users the resulting extraterritorial seigniorage will also afford Uncle Sam a new way of monetising the greenback's exorbitant privilege, opens new tab. Citi analysts expect, opens new tab the stablecoin market to balloon to $3.7 trillion by 2030, from about $250 billion today. Gallatin would recognise the first two parts of Bessent's plan - the exceptional potential of the American economy and the bumper customs revenues it brings. But pressuring financial institutions to hold U.S. government debt and championing monetary innovation go well beyond anything the financial guru ever dreamt of. They are, however, eerily reminiscent of the infamous 'System' of John Law. In 1715, the Regent of France invited the Scottish professional gambler to cure the stricken superpower of its debt-ridden malaise. Over the next four years he implemented a visionary economic strategy the like of which the world had never seen before, nor has seen since – until now. The lynchpin of Law's scheme was lockstep monetary and fiscal coordination. He founded France's first public bank and introduced a revolutionary innovation – paper money. Then he reformed the tax system and radically restructured the public debt, convincing investors to hold his novel banknotes instead. The result was that the cost of borrowing plummeted to a previously unheard-of 2%. For a brief moment in early 1720, it seemed France's problems had been solved. Unfortunately it all unravelled in an epic inflationary boom and bust. Subordinating monetary to fiscal policy while simultaneously reinventing the means of payment itself proved an unstable combination. Law was driven out of France in ignominy and retired back to the casino in Venice. No statue commemorates his genius – just a plain paving stone in a local church, opens new tab. Is Bessent a 21st-century Gallatin or the reincarnation of John Law? As the Scotsman himself might have put it: 'mesdames et messieurs – faites vos jeux'. Follow @felixmwmartin, opens new tab on X
Telegraph
5 days ago
- Business
- Telegraph
Kevin vs Kevin: Trump's front-runners to lead the Fed
Donald Trump's hunt for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is becoming a battle between two Kevins. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said on Tuesday that Trump had begun the 'formal process' to line up a replacement for Jerome Powell, the Fed boss who has enraged the president by refusing to cut interest rates. 'It's President Trump's decision, and it will move at his speed,' Bessent told Bloomberg. Trump has long been at war with Powell, who he has publicly branded a 'numbskull', 'a stupid guy' and a 'knucklehead' for ignoring the president's endless demands to slash interest rates. 'Consumer Prices LOW. Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!' Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday, despite official figures showing a rise in inflation in June. In April, Trump's threats that he would sack Powell triggered a slump in US stocks, a jump in borrowing costs and sent the dollar tumbling to a three-year low amid concerns about threat to the Fed's independence. The market rout pushed Trump to row back on his threats and tell reporters: 'I have no intention of firing him', a line the president has stuck to since. But Powell's term expires either way in May 2026. Speculation is mounting that Trump will try to undermine Powell by announcing his replacement early. Whoever replaces board member Adriana Kugler when her term ends in January could be the new Fed chair-in-waiting. Names in the ring include Bessent and Fed board member Christopher Waller. But two front-runners are said to have emerged: Kevin Hassett, the director of Trump's National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, who was previously a contender as Trump's pick for treasury secretary. Hassett met with the president at least twice in June to discuss his potential appointment as chair, according to the Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, Warsh was said to be Trump's favoured pick earlier in the year and is still thought to be in the running. The economic outsider One Kevin, Hassett, is a long-time inhabitant of Trump's orbit who knows how to speak to the president. The other has a reputation as a Wall Street whisperer with gold-plated Republican connections. Both would struggle to convince markets that they'd maintain the Fed's ability to set interest rates free from government interference. Hassett is a PhD economist who is what Joe Brusuelas, RSM US's chief economist, terms 'a creature of the Beltway', referring to the highway that encircles the US capital. He is also part of Trump's old guard. Hassett had a stint as an economist at the Fed during the 1990s before moving into the political sphere. He worked as an economic adviser on the presidential campaigns of George W Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney and has held various roles in think tanks. He served in Trump's first administration as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) for two years and then as a senior adviser. During the pandemic, Hassett was behind a fateful chart posted on social media by the CEA that was widely interpreted as a government forecast that Covid deaths would fall to zero by May 15 2020 (more than 1m Americans died of Covid after this date). Hassett later said the chart was not a forecast but was only supposed to be illustrative of a formula. In between the Trump administrations, Hassett took a role at the private equity firm set up by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. In the new administration, he has played a key role in the economic arguments for tax cuts in the 'one, big, beautiful bill'. 'I have always been a little suspicious of his work because I fear that it's starting with a position and then trying to defend it,' says David Wessel, director of The Hutchins Centre on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. Hassett seems to consider himself a spokesman for the president rather than as an adviser who might challenge him, says Wessel. 'He has had no reluctance to go on TV and defend whatever Trump does.' As such, the 63-year-old will have a hard time convincing markets that he will credibly maintain the Fed's independence, says Wessel. He may also struggle to secure the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s votes on interest rate decisions. 'He has taken such firm positions that are sometimes outside what many economists think, I think that people at the Fed would be suspicious of arguments he makes that appear to be to defend something that Trump wants him to do,' says Wessel. On Sunday, Hassett told ABC that Trump had the authority to fire Powell. 'That's a thing that's being looked into, but certainly if there's cause, he does.' Hassett's comments were in stark contrast to remarks he made in an October interview with the Financial Times when he said that during Trump's first term, 'I was sure that the Fed chair couldn't be fired by the president as a matter of law'. He has been deeply critical of the Fed and suggested in an interview with Fox last week that the Fed had made a political decision to keep interest rates higher than other central banks (the European Central Bank's policy rate is now 2pc, compared to the Fed's 4.5pc rate). 'That raises the spectre that they're not being non-partisan,' Hassett said. The hawk turned Trumpist Kevin Warsh, 55, will face similar challenges convincing markets he is not in the pocket of the president, but he has a reputation as a charmer who understands Wall Street. After stints at Stanford, Harvard Law and Morgan Stanley, Warsh emerged as a kind of political prodigy in Bush's White House. Aged just 35, he became the youngest appointee to the Fed's board of governors in the central bank's history in 2006. Warsh played a crucial role during the financial crisis as then-chair Ben Bernanke's emissary to investment bankers and the Republican Party. While Bernanke was cerebral and introverted, Warsh was outgoing, practical and had a golden Rolodex, says Wessel. Married to Jane Lauder, an heir to the Estée Lauder fortune whom he had met at Stanford, Warsh was also wealthier than all of his fellow governors combined. This marriage also meant that Ronald Lauder, the Republican donor and a long-term friend of Trump, became Warsh's father-in-law. Warsh could speak the language of investment bankers, has a natural sense of politics and a knack for intelligence gathering, says Wessel. But since Warsh has not done a huge amount since he left the Fed in 2011. He is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and lectures at Stanford's graduate business school, has a selection of board and advisory roles and was a contender for Trump's pick as treasury secretary. But he is not running a fund or a company. He is, however, very public about his criticism of the Fed, who he has blamed for driving up inflation during the pandemic. Warsh has long had a personal reputation as a hawk, meaning he is someone who generally advocates for stronger action to bring inflation down. But now he has apparently changed tack in line with the president's calls for rate cuts. In an interview with Fox Business on Sunday, Warsh said the Fed 'has the policy mix exactly wrong' and that 'rates are too high'. 'It needs to shrink the Fed balance sheet and cut interest rates,' Warsh said. The irony of Trump's recent storm of threats to the Fed is that markets will be jittery about whomever the president appoints as the next chairman. Powell's successor may have to take an even tougher stance than he has simply to keep markets – primarily Treasury yields – under control. This could mean voting to hold interest rates for even longer than expected. Kush Desai, the White House's deputy press secretary, says: 'President Trump has been clear about the need for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to complement the administration's pro-growth agenda. 'He will continue to nominate the most qualified individuals who can best serve the American people.'
