Latest news with #CEA
Economic Times
11 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's growth remains intact despite global gloom: CEA backs resilient demand, rising consumption
CEA Synopsis Despite a slowdown in full-year economic growth to 6.5%, India's CEA remains optimistic, citing robust Q4 growth of 7.4% driven by strong industrial output and resilient consumption. The nation's steady capital goods imports, infrastructure output, and FDI inflows support a healthy investment climate. India is well-positioned to navigate global turbulence with strong domestic demand. Despite a marked slowdown in full-year economic growth, India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran remains confident in the country's growth trajectory, underlining its resilience in the face of mounting global uncertainties. 'It's not just the growth number but how India's growth is holding up in a difficult global environment that matters,' he stated following the release of the Q4 and FY25 GDP data. ADVERTISEMENT India's GDP growth for FY25 slowed to 6.5%, a four-year low compared to the post-pandemic high of 9.2% in FY24. Yet, Q4 growth surged to 7.4%, exceeding expectations and signaling robust economic momentum driven by strong industrial output and resilient consumption, particularly in rural areas. This quarterly performance helped the economy maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy globally. 'We are retaining our FY26 growth forecast at 6.3–6.8%,' said Nageswaran, highlighting steady capital goods imports, a rise in infrastructure output, and stable gross FDI inflows as signs of a healthy investment climate. He noted that while global growth is expected to slow, India has seen 'smaller forecast cuts' relative to peers. Private consumption, now at its highest share of GDP since FY04, rose 7.2% year-on-year, buoyed by rural demand and urban income-tax relief. The services sector and exports also continued to show resilience amid global trade tensions and escalating geopolitical risks. Agricultural output provided a surprise upside, with FY25 growth at 4.6%, more than double the previous year.'Urban unemployment is coming down, and both urban and rural demand remain steady,' the CEA added, pointing to signs of a benign growth-inflation environment that could support future rate easing. The external sector, he said, is benefiting from strong services exports and steady merchandise volatile foreign portfolio investment (FPI) trends, Nageswaran emphasised the need to boost FDI inflows further in light of shifting global supply chains. 'We must redouble efforts to attract FDI. Globally, we are in a growth-scarce environment,' he cautioned. ADVERTISEMENT While private investment remains cautious due to global uncertainties, the CEA affirmed that India's domestic demand-driven economy continues to provide a strong foundation for growth. With supportive macroeconomic conditions and sustained consumption momentum, India remains well-positioned to navigate global turbulence. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2025 Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online. NEXT STORY
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Business Standard
12 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Growth momentum to continue in Q1FY26 as India outshines key economies: CEA
India's FY25 GDP growth print of 6.5 per cent shows that the country continues to outperform many of the world's larger and key economies. Growth in FY26 is expected to be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent, driven by private consumption, a rural rebound, and resilient services exports, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday. The CEA noted that if urban consumption picks up on the back of stronger capital formation, increased hiring, and improved compensation, India could reach the upper end of this range in FY26. He said the income tax relief announced in the Budget for FY26 will support consumption, and that high-frequency indicators for April 2025 show robust industrial and commercial activity. 'It's important to understand that globally, this is a growth-scarce environment. In spite of rising uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions — which predate 2025 — India is holding up its growth numbers better than many advanced economies,' the CEA said. 'Interest rate moderation by the RBI and the tax relief provided by the government are expected to boost overall consumption. Capital formation by the private sector is also likely to improve, as capacity utilisation levels are high,' he said. On private sector investments, the CEA remarked that it is not as though private capex has been stagnant — but the growth rate has remained on the slower side. 'Given that India has a large domestic economy, the private sector can definitely invest more. But how much it will ramp up in this current environment is difficult to say,' he added. Nageswaran highlighted that while the external environment does not pose a funding risk for India, the country must increase its efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) by integrating more deeply into global supply chains and leveraging the 'China plus one' strategy. He also said that declining crude oil prices could lower the import bill, create fiscal space, and ease external economic pressures. However, he warned that renewed financial market volatility could bring additional uncertainty, potentially weighing on growth. 'Diverging central bank rate paths globally may impact capital flows and financial markets,' Nageswaran said.
India Gazette
13 hours ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Indian economy doing well, may achieve growth at higher end of 6.3-6.8% projection in FY26: CEA
New Delhi [India], May 30 (ANI): Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran on Friday affirmed that the Indian economy is doing well and may achieve a growth rate at the higher end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection. 'All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well,' the CEA told reporters at a virtual press conference, soon after the GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. 'And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent).' As was widely expected, the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. According to NSO's second advance estimates, the country's economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. In 2023-24, India's GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew 8.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Today, the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter was also released. The economy grew 7.4 per cent during the quarter. During the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters, the country's economy experienced real-term growth rates of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Asked whether unusual monsoon rains will impact vegetable prices, Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran suggested against extrapolating a few weeks of prices and activity. 'To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue,' he explained. Amidst global uncertainty, the CEA said global growth for 2025 and 2026 is likely to slow, but India faces smaller forecast cuts in global forecasts. He supplemented high-frequency indicators for April 2025, showing strong Industrial and commercial activity in India. 'Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurernent, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures,' he said in a presentation. The government retains its outlook on 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, with private consumption, especially the rural rebound, and resilient services exports as the key drivers. Multiple agencies have projected India's growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent in 2025-26. (ANI)
Time of India
16 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Kumbh Mela's ₹2.8 lakh crore question: Did faith drive India's Q4 GDP growth? CEA weighs in
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran has cautiously acknowledged the potential economic contribution of the Maha Kumbh Mela to the country's fourth quarter consumption in FY25, even as he underlined the difficulty in assigning a precise number. 'It can be said that the Maha Kumbh had a contribution (to consumption in Q4FY25), but to give a precise estimate of the contribution is difficult at this stage,' he comment comes amid reports estimating that the 2025 edition of the Maha Kumbh Mela facilitated an eye-watering Rs 2.8 lakh crore in economic activity, turning the world's largest religious gathering into an economic report, released by Dun & Bradstreet in April and cited by PTI, paints a staggering picture of consumption. The total estimated economic output includes Rs 90,000 crore in direct spending, Rs 80,000 crore in indirect economic activity, and a further Rs 1.1 lakh crore in induced impacts, driven largely by increased local consumption and economic circulation among vendors, workers, and service terms of consumption alone, Rs 2.3 lakh crore of the total was attributed to everyday expenditures — transportation, food, accommodation, and tourism. The remaining Rs 50,000 crore was identified as capital expenditure, with significant outlays on infrastructure to accommodate the surge in emerged as the star contributor, raking in Rs 37,000 crore, with the Indian Railways alone earning Rs 17,700 crore during the festival period. Recreation and spiritual tourism also saw significant gains, with pilgrims spending Rs 10,000 crore on everything from helicopter rides and hot air balloons to yoga sessions and guided impact on small businesses was profound: 2 lakh vendors engaged in retail reportedly generated Rs 7,000 crore, while food services added another Rs 6,500 crore. The humble tea and puri stalls thrived, with some tea sellers earning up to Rs 30,000 a day, and puri vendors clocking Rs 1,500 daily in average these eye-popping figures, the CEA maintained a cautious stance, citing challenges in definitively attributing macroeconomic growth figures to individual events like the Kumbh. 'Given that India is a domestic demand-driven economy, private sector investment will continue — but it's difficult to precisely anticipate how much they will grow amid the tough global environment,' Nageswaran added.
Time of India
a day ago
- Health
- Time of India
Exempt small hospitals from CEA: Indian Medical Association to government
Hyderabad: The Indian Medical Association (IMA), Telangana, on Tuesday requested the health department to exempt hospitals with less than 50 beds from the provisions of the Clinical Establishment Act (CEA), rationalise MBBS/PG seats and create more govt posts to end unemployment in the medical fraternity. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now In a letter addressed to the health dept officials, IMA listed these and several other pressing issues faced by the medical community in the state, particularly the private practitioners and small and medium healthcare establishments. According to the IMA members, instances of violence against doctors were on the rise with inadequate legal protection. They requested an amendment to the law by increasing the imprisonment from three years to seven years, making it a non-bailable offence. The IMA also stated that the provisions of the CEA were adversely affecting small hospitals and clinics. They asked for an exemption for hospitals with fewer than 50 beds from CEA regulations, noting that states such as Haryana and Bihar provide such exemptions. According to the IMA, unemployment was prevailing in the medical fraternity due to an increase in medical colleges. They appealed to rationalise the intake of MBBS/PG seats and called for more govt job recruitments to fill the deficit. The association also urged the introduction of a single-window system for hospital registrations, renewals, and licences; exemption for medical establishments from the stay on trade licence enforcement; the formation of a health commission; and the need for legal and physical safety training for doctors and others.
